Authors:Ugo Fratesi; Giovanni Perucca Pages: 241 - 264 Abstract: Starting in 2007–2008, an economic crisis with no comparable precedent after WWII has affected most of the World, and Europe in particular. Yet, despite the pervasiveness of the crisis, its impact was highly differentiated across countries. The macroeconomic country-level effects are very important, but also within countries the impact on the various regions has been far from uniform, with some regions, often the most urban, able to resist the crisis better than others. Among the many factors which can have influenced the differential impact of the crisis in Europe, this paper looks at the regional endowment of structural territorial assets, those which have been labelled as “territorial capital”. Territorial capital comprehends all those assets, being material or immaterial, public or private, which represent the development potential of places. Territorial capital enhances regional growth in ordinary times, and, being structural, can be expected to also act as a factor of resilience in times of crisis. To investigate this hypothesis, a database of territorial capital indicators for all regions of the European Union at NUTS3 level is exploited, and a classification of regions based on the endowment of territorial capital is built. It appears that regions belonging to different groups, i.e. being differently endowed with territorial capital, have had different degrees of resilience, with some being able to maintain their income levels better than their country and others losing ground. The structure of regions is hence an important determinant of how they can afford periods of distress, and in particular, more resilient have been those regions endowed with less mobile territorial capital assets and with those territorial capital assets of mixed levels of materiality and rivalry. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0828-3 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Gillian Bristow; Adrian Healy Pages: 265 - 284 Abstract: The varying rates of recovery of European regional economies from the 2007 to 2008 economic crisis have raised interesting questions about the sources of economic resilience. Policy discourse has increasingly asserted the role played by innovation in facilitating rapid recovery from economic shocks, whilst evolutionary thinking has highlighted the specific importance of innovation capacity. However, empirical evidence on this is lacking. This paper addresses this gap by providing new empirical analysis of the relationship between regional innovation capacity and the resilience of European regions to the crisis. It finds that regions identified as Innovation Leaders at the time of the crisis were significantly more likely to have either resisted the crisis or recovered quickly from it (i.e. within 3 years). This provides important insights for evolutionary approaches theorising the relationship between innovation and resilience. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0841-6 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Paolo Rizzi; Paola Graziano; Antonio Dallara Pages: 285 - 328 Abstract: Regional resilience is a new paradigm to explain the local system ability to cope with a negative event, tolerating the effect produced by the perturbing action. The first objective of the paper is to analyze the complex concept of regional resilience, adopting a systemic and holistic approach. Using a multidimensional methodology, regional resilience is described by outcome and driver variables, with focus on sustainability of local systems, broken down into the three pillars of economy, society and environment, whereby the holistic approach means that each dimension of territorial sustainable development is partly determined by its relations with the other dimensions. The second aim of the paper is then to test the relations between determinants and outcome of regional resilience. This framework is different compared to previous empirical studies, which primarily focus on economic performance in terms of income or employment dynamics. The model is applied to the case of European regions, to get a map of regional resilience in its different dimensions. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0854-1 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Anastasios Kitsos; Paul Bishop Pages: 329 - 347 Abstract: The 2008 recession has had a prolonged and varying effect both across and within countries. This paper studies the crisis impact on Great Britain’s Local Authority Districts (LADs) using the concept of economic resilience. This country is an interesting case study as the impact varied significantly among LADs. The focus is on employment, and a new method is proposed for comparing pre- and post-recession conditions in order to assess the recession impact. The influence of a number of determining factors is examined, and the study finds a significant effect for initial economic conditions, human capital, age structure, urbanisation and geography. Policy makers need to take into account subnational differences in these factors in order to design and implement better targeted policies. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-016-0797-y Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:A. M. Angulo; J. Mur; F. J. Trívez Pages: 349 - 373 Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate Spanish regions’ resistance to the economic crisis under three main resilience notions: “adaptative,” “engineering” and “ecological.” “Adaptative” resilience is measured through a traditional shift-share approach applied to employment, whereas “engineering” and “ecological” resilience pay attention to growth path and total employment level, in the pre- and post-crisis period. The paper presents an application of the different notion of resilience to the case of Spanish provinces in the last years. We find that provinces with sectoral structure and location advantages, or those with locational advantages in the post-crisis period (according to the “adaptative” resilience measure), exhibit a significantly lower “drop” in growth (according to the “engineering” and “ecological” resilience measure). Furthermore, we conclude that the probability of presenting a better behavior (lower “drop” in growth than the average) increases for those regions specialized in the service sector before the crisis. As expected, the worse behavior has correspond to those regions specialized in the pre-crisis period in the construction sector. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0815-8 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Paolo Di Caro Pages: 375 - 392 Abstract: This study provides novel evidence on the resilience of regional labour markets in Italy by applying the nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive modelling approach to newly released data on total, female and industrial employment. Five main conclusions derive from the empirical results. The concept of ecological resilience describes regional evolution in Italy over the past 40 years. Spatial differences in resilience result significant across Italian regions. Female employment registers low resilience dynamics and increasing vulnerability during shocks. Since the first half of nineties national and international destabilizing events contributed to amplify regional divergences. The uneven evolution and performance of the manufacturing sector across Italy provides some explanations on the asymmetric geographical distribution of resilience in this country. The concluding section summarizes the main findings of the work and proposes future avenues of research. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0816-7 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Alessandra Faggian; Roberta Gemmiti; Timothy Jaquet; Isabella Santini Pages: 393 - 410 Abstract: After defining the concept of resilience and its application to the regional context, the paper presents a preliminary evaluation of regional economic resilience in the case of the Italian regions. In doing so, we follow the approach by Martin (J Econ Geogr 12:1–32, 2012) and Martin and Sunley (2015) who identify three different dimensions to regional economic resilience: (a) resistance, i.e., the degree of sensitivity or depth of reaction of a regional economy to a recessionary shock; (b) recovery, i.e., the speed and magnitude of the recovery; (c) reorientation and renewal, i.e., the ability of a region to adapt in response to the shock and renew its growth path. The analysis is conducted at the local labor systems (LLS) geographical level and focuses, at this stage, only on the first two dimensions of resilience, i.e., resistance and recovery. The recessionary shock (2009–2010) is defined following the Italian National Statistical Institute approach for which a recession implies a decrease in GDP for three consecutive trimesters. The pre-recessionary period is 2007–2008 and the recovery period 2011 (as a new recession started again in Italy at the end of 2011). The results clearly point at very heterogeneous resilience for the Italian LLS. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0822-9 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Fabio Mazzola; Iolanda Lo Cascio; Rosalia Epifanio; Giuseppe Di Giacomo Pages: 411 - 441 Abstract: The consequences of the crisis have been mainly analyzed at national/international levels, neglecting its differential effects on local areas. Notwithstanding the international character of the Great Recession, the different local structural features might have influenced the economic and social impact of the crisis, determining effects on the resilience and recovery chance. In this paper, we focus on the role of different territorial indicators by looking at how their relevance has changed during the recent crisis at provincial level. Our aim is threefold. First, we identify the strategic territorial elements which might be particularly relevant in ensuring a greater local absorption capacity. Second, we test whether the crisis has increased the role of specific local factors. In doing that, we use different measures of performance (GDP, exports and employment). Third, we control for macro-regional characteristics (i.e., North versus South) and local specific effects through a panel analysis of the dynamics of the performance variables in three sub-periods over the years 2000–2014. For that purpose, we use a multidimensional dataset for Italian provinces aiming at estimating the empirical relations between the set of territorial elements (i.e., the components of the so-called territorial capital) and the change in local performance. The results stress the role of some localized variables (i.e., human and cultural/natural/capital, agglomeration economies) over the whole period and the changing role of other territorial dimensions (material and non-material) according to the performance variable considered and during the crisis. PubDate: 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0853-2 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Philipp Otto; Wolfgang Schmid Pages: 41 - 72 Abstract: In this paper, we provide a spatiotemporal examination of German real-estate prices in 412 administrative districts. The price process is spatially autocorrelated and stationary over the considered period from 1995 to 2010. To quantify both spatial and temporal effects of the process, we apply different spatiotemporal models. These models are consistently estimated by the maximum likelihood approach, and they are compared with respect to the impact of shocks on fundamental quantities. Moreover, we interpret the economic importance of our results with respect to migrational issues. We show that the willingness of individuals to move or to commute decreased in Germany during the considered years. Furthermore, we include a detailed interpretation of the so-called ripple effect. PubDate: 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-016-0789-y Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 1 (2018)
Authors:Matthew Gnagey; Therese Grijalva Pages: 73 - 97 Abstract: Convenient and local access to open green space is highly valued in many communities, particularly those comprised largely of individuals who participate in natural resource outdoor recreation. Understanding the value outdoor recreation communities place on access to open space is critical for informing policy decisions on land use including zoning and other restrictions, government open space purchases, and open space access points such as trailheads. In this article, we analyze the impact of trail access on property values in Ogden, Utah, using spatial hedonic pricing models. We consistently find substantial premiums for properties located closer to trailheads. Using a spatial Durbin error model, we find a 0.6% direct effect premium for each minute closer in driving time to the nearest trailhead, and a 1.4% premium when accounting for the total impact. We also find direct premiums between 0.4 and 1.9% for each minute closer in driving time to individual trailheads in this region. Additionally, homes adjacent to trailheads do not experience negative spillovers that homeowners may experience from increased traffic and congestion. PubDate: 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0846-1 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 1 (2018)
Authors:Tiago Freire; Xiaoye Li Pages: 119 - 141 Abstract: In this study, we show that an inflow of immigrants reduces volunteering, a proxy of social capital investment, in receiving communities. Since the 1960s, there has been a large decrease in social capital in the USA as well as a considerable inflow of immigrants. This increased heterogeneity of US cities may have increased the cost of investing in social capital, and thereby, reduced such investment. By using the current population survey September Volunteer Supplement for 2005–2011, we examine the relationship between the proportion of foreign-born people and social capital investment by US-born individuals, proxied by volunteering. Once we correct for immigrants’ self-selection to different destinations using a supply–push instrumental variable, we find that a 1 standard deviation increase in the proportion of foreign-born individuals in a state reduces the probability of US-born individuals volunteering by 0.09–0.15 standard deviations and cuts number of hours volunteered by 0.13–0.21 standard deviations. PubDate: 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0848-z Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 1 (2018)
Authors:Carlo Ciccarelli; Anna Missiaia Pages: 171 - 193 Abstract: This paper investigates regional business cycle co-movements in Austria–Hungary from 1867 to 1913. Economic theory suggests that rising market integration induces sectoral specialisation, resulting in a reduction in the correlation of regional GDP cycles (Krugman effect). However, the synchronisation of business cycles is expected to increase because of the growing inter-linkages among regions led by the adoption of common currency and common economic policies (Frankel and Rose effect). We show that in the case of nineteenth-century Austria–Hungary the specialisation effect, most likely amplified by the stock market crisis of 1873, prevailed during 1867–1890, while the common currency/policy effect prevailed during 1890–1913, when the gold standard was adopted in both Austria and Hungary. However, core and peripheral regions contributed differently to the correlation of business fluctuations. PubDate: 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0850-5 Issue No:Vol. 60, No. 1 (2018)
Authors:Maria Ikegawa; Suminori Tokunaga Abstract: In the 2000s, after the Asian financial crisis, East Asian countries achieved rapid economic growth. Many Japanese frozen food companies focused on East Asian markets, but faced problems with the cold chain and refrigerators. In this study, we use the penetration rate of household refrigerators in the host country to calculate market access, which we then use to estimate the location choice model. The results of the conditional logistic model show that the location choice for Japanese frozen food companies is affected not only by the penetration rate of refrigerators, but also by traditional cost-reduction factors, such as wages and investment promotion policies in the host country. In addition, domestic market access encourages Japanese FDI in East Asia. PubDate: 2018-05-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0865-6
Authors:Mikaela Backman; Tina Wallin Abstract: We examine whether low access to banks is perceived as problematic when obtaining financial capital for innovation activities. Data on innovation obstacles from the Swedish Community Innovation Survey are combined with geo-coded data at the firm level, which allows us to proxy access to external capital by the Euclidian distance from each firm to its nearest bank and the supply within a radius of 5 km. The results indicate that both a longer distance to the nearest bank and fewer banks in the vicinity are related to experiencing greater difficulties in obtaining external financial capital for innovations. PubDate: 2018-04-17 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0863-8
Authors:Shanming Jia; Chenglin Qin; Xinyue Ye Abstract: Regional multi-pole growth is an important spatial form of regional economic organization pattern. We construct a model of regional multi-pole growth evolution to study its mechanism based on the assumption of heterogeneous space and inseparability of the economic subject. The study concludes that the evolution of regional multi-pole growth is affected by factors such as transportation costs, economies of scale, the crowding-out effect, and the factor endowments of superior location and inferior location. Based on the condition that the factor endowment of a location remains the same, with an increased economy of scale effect and a decline in the marginal production cost advantage, location will strengthen the agglomeration layout, which does not help form regional multi-pole growth patterns. With an increase of the crowding-out effect and a decline in the marginal production cost disadvantage, location will strengthen the dispersed layout, which fosters the formation of the regional multi-pole growth pattern. When transportation costs are high, a decline in such costs strengthens the links among locations, fostering the evolution of the regional spatial organization form to shift from dispersion to agglomeration. However, when transportation costs are somewhat reduced, their further reduction leads the regional spatial organization pattern into dispersion. Therefore, under certain conditions and with a decline in transportation costs, regional multi-pole growth weakens first and then strengthens. PubDate: 2018-04-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0864-7
Authors:María Gutiérrez-Portilla; Adolfo Maza; María Hierro Abstract: The main aim of this study, which takes Spanish provinces over the periods 2004–2007 and 2008–2013 as case study, is threefold: first, to test whether labor factors affect to a greater extent foreigners than natives when it comes to migrating; second, to detect changes in migration patterns over the crisis period; third, to unveil nonlinearities in the relationship between migration and wages. To do so, an extended gravity model, combined with a methodology that identifies endogenous thresholds to nonlinear effects, is estimated. The results support that the role played by labor factors is more important for foreigners than natives, especially before the outbreak of the economic crisis. The results also indicate that the relative size of the service sector and, to a lesser extent, climate conditions have gained importance as attraction factors for natives over the crisis, while the opposite happens for foreigners. Therefore, evidence clearly supports the idea that business cycle modifies the decision making of migrants. Finally, some nonlinearities in the effect of expected wages on migration are found regardless of the group and/or time frame considered. PubDate: 2018-02-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0862-9
Authors:F. Bavaud; M. Kordi; C. Kaiser Abstract: The paper proposes and investigates a new index of flow autocorrelation, based upon a generalization of Moran’s I, and made of two ingredients. The first one consists of a family of spatial weights matrix, the exchange matrix, possessing a freely adjustable parameter interpretable as the age of the network, and controlling for the distance decay range. The second one is a matrix of chi-square dissimilarities between outgoing or incoming flows. Flows have to be adjusted, that is their diagonal part must first be calibrated from their off-diagonal part, thanks to a new iterative procedure procedure aimed at making flows as independent as possible. Commuter flows in Western Switzerland as well as migration flows in Western US illustrate the statistical testing of flow autocorrelation, as well as the computation, mapping and interpretation of local indicators of flow autocorrelation. We prove the present dyadic formalism to be equivalent to the “origin-based” tetradic formalism found in alternative studies of flow autocorrelation. PubDate: 2018-02-09 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0860-y
Authors:Timothy M. Komarek Abstract: The USA has experienced a sudden expansion of oil and natural gas production due to the combination of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. The energy extraction boom has had many localized impacts, most notably in areas with substantial shale gas reserves. This paper exploits a natural experiment in the Marcellus region to examine one channel of the so-called resource curse, the effect of resource extraction on local crime. The results show that areas experiencing a natural gas extraction boom suffer an increase in overall violent crimes, while property crimes remain similar to non-boom areas. Furthermore, the violent crime increase appears to be driven primarily by increases in aggravated and sexual assaults. PubDate: 2018-01-25 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0861-x
Authors:Wei Kang; Sergio J. Rey Abstract: Spatial effects have been recognized to play an important role in transitional dynamics of regional incomes. Detection and evaluation of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence in discrete Markov chain models, which have been widely applied to the study of regional income distribution dynamics and convergence, are vital, but under-explored issues. Indeed, in this spatiotemporal setting, spatial effects can take much more complex forms than that in a pure cross-sectional setting. In this paper, we address two test frameworks. The first is a conditional spatial Markov chains test framework, which can be used to detect spatial heterogeneity and temporally lagged spatial dependence; the second is a joint spatial Markov chains test framework, which tests for contemporaneous spatial dependence. A series of Monte Carlo experiments are designed to examine size, power and robustness properties of these tests for a range of sample sizes (spatial \(\times \) temporal dimensions), for different levels of discretization granularity and for different number of regimes. Results indicate that all tests display good size property except when sample size is fairly small. All tests for spatial dependence are similar in almost all aspects—size, power and robustness. Conditional spatial Markov tests for spatial heterogeneity have highest power for detecting spatial heterogeneity. Granularity of discretization has a major impact on the size properties of the tests when sample size is fairly small. PubDate: 2018-01-06 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0859-9
Authors:Paolo Di Caro; Ugo Fratesi Abstract: The economic resilience approach recently spread among regional scientists and economic geographers has provided new challenges to empirical researchers interested in studying the overall temporary and persistent consequences of the recent crisis and, more broadly, economic shocks. One of the open issues in this literature is the identification of the determinants of resilience, that is, the factors that influence the evolutionary dynamic process of robustness and adaptability registered in particular places. The selected sample of papers in this special issue provides original contributions for answering the question about what determines regional economic resilience. The common findings of the contributions can be seen as quite robust by relying upon different measures of resilience, cases, methodologies and time periods. Three main conclusions arise from the special issue: most of the determinants of economic resilience show regularities across time and space. The factors that contribute to explain the economic performance of places in normal times are also useful for understanding the patterns observed during and after recessionary events. Policymakers can play an active role in sustaining resilient economies by addressing resources and efforts in the right policy areas without waiting for crises. PubDate: 2017-11-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0858-x
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