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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [240 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2351 journals]
  • Modeling and analysis of mining subsidence disaster chains based on
           stochastic Petri nets
    • Authors: Yuejuan Chen; Jin Zhang; Anchao Zhou; Bo Yin
      Pages: 19 - 41
      Abstract: Coal mining that results in goaf causes ground surface subsidence. It will in turn cause a disruptive threat to the surface construction, water, and slope body, which constitutes a transitive relationship. In the process of a disaster chain, the interactions between disasters have serious negative consequences. To solve these problems, we clearly established model elements of the disaster chain and analyzed their control flow relationships. On that basis, the stochastic Petri nets, as a powerful mathematical modeling tool that can be used to describe discrete and distributed systems, were adopted to model the process of mine ground surface subsidence disaster chains using the DISChain_Net model. The cause and process of the destruction as well as the disaster consequences were discussed. Then, the crucial nodes in the process of the disaster chain delivery were identified, which enabled the decision makers to make a reasonable judgment and implement mitigation measures. The study will thus provide new research ideas for studying the mine ground surface subsidence disasters through modeling, analysis, and assessment.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3190-6
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • A critical review of potential tsunamigenic sources as first step towards
           the tsunami hazard assessment for the Napoli Gulf (Southern Italy) highly
           populated area
    • Authors: I. Alberico; F. Budillon; D. Casalbore; V. Di Fiore; R. Iavarone
      Pages: 43 - 76
      Abstract: Catastrophic tsunami events like those occurred in Papua New Guinea in 1998, Sumatra in 2004 and Japan in 2011, attracted the attention of the scientific community and promoted the development of different tools for assessing tsunami hazard. A preliminary step towards this goal is the knowledge of the events which might affect a specific coastal zone. In this context, we propose a method to identify the tsunami events possibly occurring in areas characterized by scarce data and a non-conservative environment. Accordingly, we propose different indices to summarize the knowledge on tsunami triggering mechanisms (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions), the characteristics of those mechanisms (magnitude of earthquakes, volume of landslide, Volcanic Explosivity Index) and tsunami features (water height, run-up, wave amplitude, propagation time). This knowledge, considered over a wider area than that of interest, allows for a paramount vision of possible hazardous events that could affect a particular coastal zone. Moreover, the tsunami simulation data and the analysis of potentially tsunamigenic slides which occurred on the Campania continental margins were also considered in the analysis. We focused our attention on Napoli megacity, because the high population density (about 1 million of people live on a territory of 117 km2), together with the presence of active volcanic areas (Ischia, Somma-Vesuvio and Campi Flegrei), make this city potentially exposed to tsunami risk. The main outcome of such an approach shows that in the near field a tsunami amplitude varying from a few centimetres (30–40 cm) to some metres (1–4 m) might be expected at the coastline if the tsunami event was triggered by volcanic activity, whereas no relevant tsunami event should be expected given the peculiar seismicity of the Neapolitan volcanic areas, with earthquakes rarely exceeding 4 Mw, if any possible cascade effects are overlooked. A morphometric analysis of high-resolution bathymetry collected between Ventotene Island and the Gulf of Salerno has shown that the submarine southern sectors of the Ischia Island and the Sorrento Peninsula are characterized by a high density of landslide scars, being thus a potential source area of landslide-generated tsunamis. However, despite the susceptibility of these areas to recurrent slope failures, only four submarine landslide scars were found to be potentially tsunamigenic with estimated tsunami amplitude of few metres at the coastline as predicted by coupling slide morphometry with tsunami amplitude equations. Concerning the tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Western Mediterranean, only those triggered by high magnitude events (value ≥ 6–7 Mw) might affect the city of Napoli with an amplitude not exceeding 0.5 m, in about 30′.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3191-5
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • An improved cyclonic wind distribution for computation of storm surges
    • Authors: Smita Pandey; A. D. Rao
      Pages: 93 - 112
      Abstract: The rise of total water levels at the coast is caused primarily by three factors that encompass storm surges, tides and wind waves. The accuracy of total water elevation (TWE) forecast depends not only on the cyclonic track and its intensity, but also on the spatial distribution of winds which include its speed and direction. In the present study, the cyclonic winds are validated using buoy winds for the recent cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal since 2010 using Jelesnianski wind scheme. It is found that the cyclonic winds computed from the scheme show an underestimate in the magnitude and also a mismatch in its direction. Hence, the wind scheme is suitably modified based on the buoy observations available at different locations using a power law which reduces the exponential decay of winds by about 30%. Moreover, the cyclonic wind direction is also corrected by suitably modifying its inflow angle. The significance of modified exponential factor and inflow angle in the computation cyclonic winds is highlighted using statistical analysis. A hydrodynamic finite element-based Advanced Circulation 2D depth integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) model is used here to compute TWE as a response to combined effect of cyclonic winds and astronomical tides. As contribution of wave setup plays an important role near the coast, a coupled ADCIRC + SWAN is used to perceive the contribution of wind waves on the TWE. The experiments are performed to validate computed surge residuals with available tide gauge data. On comparison of observed surge residuals with the simulations using modified winds from the uncoupled and coupled models, it is found that the simulated surge residuals are better compared, especially with the inclusion of wave effect through the coupled model.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3193-3
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Earthquake scenario in a national drill, the case of “Turning Point
           6”, 2012, Israel
    • Authors: T. Levi; A. Salamon; D. Bausch; J. Rozelle; A. Cutrell; S. Hoyland; Y. Hamiel; O. Katz; R. Calvo; Z. Gvirtzman; B. Ackerman; I. Gavrieli
      Pages: 113 - 132
      Abstract: National exercises are an excellent opportunity to practice earthquake preparedness. Such exercises can greatly benefit from productive communication between the civil protection agencies (CPs) and the earth sciences community (SC). The challenge of the scientists in this interaction is to properly formulate their message and convey their perspective in a manner understandable to the responsible emergency agencies. On October 2012, Israel held its first national earthquake emergency exercise (TP6) that examined the response of the country’s systems at large to an Mw ~ 7 earthquake. The exercise greatly benefited from brain storming meetings between the CPs and researchers from the Geological Survey of Israel (GSI) that were held prior to the drill. These helped in choosing the earthquake scenario and establish the concept of the exercise. Geological hazards and damage maps, including numerous discrete events, were prepared in advance with the HAZUS Multi-Hazard Loss Estimation software and were conveyed to the drilled authorities during the exercise. The exercise also benefitted from close collaboration between researchers of FEMA and the GSI. During the drill, the GSI and its relevant scientists practiced the preparation and transfer of the relevant material to the decision makers in “real time.” The drill provided the following lessons: (1) In real time, the damage maps should be delivered by earthquake researchers, thereby helping the CP agencies to grasp the information. (2) Damage maps should be prepared in advance and accessibly stored by the CP agencies for a range of probable scenarios. (3) Damage maps based on dot density that represent number of buildings damaged, number of casualties and weight of debris were found to be the most comprehensible when presenting the scope of the damage. The lessons learned from the collaboration between the CP and SC in TP6 provide an excellent example for optimal planning of national earthquake exercises, thereby helping in minimizing the anticipated impact of destructive earthquakes.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3194-2
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Landslide susceptibility mapping by using statistical analysis in the
           North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) on the northern part of Suşehri Town,
    • Authors: Gökhan Demir
      Pages: 133 - 154
      Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to obtain the landslide susceptibility mapping and compare the models of logistic regression (LR), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and frequency ratio (FR) applied in a part of Suşehri a long the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ, Sivas, Turkey). At first, a landslide inventory map was created from various sources such as aerial photographs, field studies, and satellite images. Then, the inventory map was randomly separated into an analysis dataset 65% for practicing the models, and the rest 35% was used for validation purpose. In analysis for landslide susceptibility, the following factors were used: lithology, slope aspect, topographical elevation, distance to stream, distance to roads, slope gradient, and distance to faults. To get speed and facility in our analysis, all descriptive and spatial information was entered into GIS system and consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using models in GIS. At last for validation, the landslide susceptibility maps, the rest of the analysis dataset, which was not used in the modeling process, was considered and accomplished with operating characteristic curves and area under the curve. The results showed that the area under the curves obtained using the AHP, LR, and FR methods are 0.884, 0.837, and 0.835, respectively. In general, all three models were reasonably accurate. The resultant maps would be useful for regional spatial planning as well as for safe construction areas planning.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3195-1
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Evaluation of CHIRPS and its application for drought monitoring over the
           Haihe River Basin, China
    • Authors: Feng Gao; Yuhu Zhang; Xiulin Ren; Yunjun Yao; Zengchao Hao; Wanyuan Cai
      Pages: 155 - 172
      Abstract: Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations data (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset was early evaluated and compared with 29 meteorological stations over the Haihe River basin in China, for the period 1981–2015. Seven statistical and categorical metrics were applied to evaluate the performance of CHIRPS with gauge measurements at multi-time scales (monthly, seasonally and annually). Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the drought indicator, the applicability of this new long-term satellite precipitation product for drought monitoring was investigated in this study. Results indicate that the good performances were performed at multiple temporal scales (monthly, seasonally and annually). Although it tends to overestimate the higher precipitation in this region, CHIRPS demonstrated good agreement (R2 > 0.70) with gauge observations at monthly scale and greater agreements (R2 > 0.78) at seasonal and annual scales. Meanwhile, CHIRPS performed a good score of BIAS and lower error in a majority of months at multi-time scales. Because of its good performance at multi-time scales and the advantages of high spatial resolution and long-time record, CHIRPS was applied to derive the SPI over the Haihe River basin. It is evaluated and compared with stations observations to derive SPI at time scale of 1, 3 and 6 months. The results indicate that it performed good ability to monitor drought (R2 > 0.70) and successfully captured the historical drought years (1981, 1999, 2001 and 2012). Overall, this study concludes that CHIRPS can be a valuable complement to gauge precipitation data for estimating precipitation and drought monitoring in this region.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3196-0
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Women’s empowerment following disaster: a longitudinal study of
           social change
    • Authors: Jenny Moreno; Duncan Shaw
      Pages: 205 - 224
      Abstract: This paper examines changes in gender relations in a small coastal community as a result of the 2010 Chile earthquake and tsunami. Vulnerability and resilience are used as a conceptual framework to analyse these changes. Based on empirical evidence from a seven-year longitudinal study and quasi-ethnographic work, we explore changes in power relations at the different stages of the disaster and longer-term recovery as well as the conditions that fostered these changes. Our findings show distinct patterns of change. First, disasters can trigger long-lasting changes that challenge historical patriarchal relations. Second, while vulnerability increases following a disaster, resilience can potentially counteract women’s vulnerability. We propose that resilience can be a pathway to produce long-term changes in gender relations and empower women in the context of disasters.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3204-4
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Multi-sensor DInSAR applied to the spatiotemporal evolution analysis of
           ground surface deformation in Cerro Prieto basin, Baja California, Mexico,
           for the 1993–2014 period
    • Authors: Olga Sarychikhina; Ewa Glowacka; Braulio Robles
      Pages: 225 - 255
      Abstract: The combined effects of active tectonics and anthropogenic activities, primarily geothermal resources exploitation for electricity production in Cerro Prieto geothermal field, influence the ground surface deformation in Cerro Prieto basin, Baja California, Mexico. In this study, a large set of multi-sensor C-band SAR images have been employed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of aseismic ground surface deformation that has affected Cerro Prieto basin from 1993 to 2014. Conventional DInSAR together with the interferograms stacking procedure was applied. The results showed that the study area presented considerable surface deformation (mainly subsidence) during the entire time of the investigation. The main changes in rate and pattern of surface deformation have a good correlation in time and space with the changes in production in the Cerro Prieto geothermal field. Comparison of LOS displacement maps from different viewing geometries, and decomposition (where possible) of LOS displacement into vertical and horizontal (east–west) components, revealed considerable horizontal displacement which mostly reflects the ground movement at and beyond the margin of the subsidence basin toward the areas of highest subsidence rates. In addition, the validation of the DInSAR results by comparing them against measurements from leveling surveys was performed, confirming the high reliably of satellite interferometry for the ground surface deformation rate mapping in the study area.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3206-2
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Capturing the multifaceted phenomena of socioeconomic vulnerability
    • Authors: Linda Sorg; Neiler Medina; Daniel Feldmeyer; Arlex Sanchez; Zoran Vojinovic; Jörn Birkmann; Alessandra Marchese
      Pages: 257 - 282
      Abstract: Vulnerability and disaster risk assessment has been evaluated from different perspectives with focus on global or national scale. There is a lack of methodologies on city scale, which are able to capture inner-city disparities with regard to socioeconomic aspects. Therefore, the main objective was to develop a transparent and comprehensive indicator-based approach which is flexible in terms of data availability and is not tied to a specific case study side. This research proposes two flexible methodological approaches on how to perform socioeconomic vulnerability assessment. Susceptibility, Coping and Adaptation are the main elements of a modular hierarchical structure to capture the societal sphere of vulnerability. The first method is completely based on official census data at block scale. The second method is an expansion and includes data derived from a field survey to add components of risk perception. The proposed methodologies were developed and applied in the city of Genoa (Italy). The results are displayed spatially explicit on maps. Furthermore statistical analysis, to reveal the driving forces which influence vulnerability, was performed. The census-based approach revealed that vulnerability is forced along the river by the inherent susceptibility, as well as the lack of adaptation. The two approaches can be used effectively in gaining different insights. The flexibility of the framework proved to be suitable to the objective of the research. However, the values computed in this research do not claim completeness, and the aim was to provide useful information for stakeholders in decision making process to reduce vulnerability and risk.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3207-1
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Statistical analysis of large accidents in China’s coal mines in
    • Authors: Xiao Wang; Fan-bao Meng
      Pages: 311 - 325
      Abstract: Mining is a high-risk industry, and mine accidents occur frequently. To better understand the characteristics and trends of current coal mine accidents, 29 cases of significant accidents occurred in China in 2016 are introduced first in this manuscript; then, the accident types, occurrence time, occurrence locations, and direct causes were analyzed for these accidents. Finally, according to the analysis results, coal mine accident prevention and control suggestions are presented. This data analysis not only plays a positive role in the prevention and control of mine accidents in China but also has reference significance for the safe production of coal mines in other countries of the world.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3211-5
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • A novel triggerless approach for mass wasting susceptibility modeling
           applied to the Boston Mountains of Arkansas, USA
    • Authors: Kyle W. Rowden; Mohamed H. Aly
      Pages: 347 - 367
      Abstract: This research deploys a novel mass wasting susceptibility modeling approach for cases where temporal information is unavailable and circumstances are prejudiced to merit applying traditional susceptibility modeling strategies. Conventional models typically employ approaches deemed problematic for this study, e.g., biased weighted input; a “more is better” approach pertaining to voluminous inputs; neglecting geologic structural influence; and establishing temporal linkages between cause (trigger) and effect (failure) with a trigger being defined as a catalyst for failure, such as timed events like earthquakes or precipitation as well as physical changes like vegetation removal or slope disturbance. Road bias may also influence modeling dramatically when event data are derived from observations of road-related failures, which become unreliable at predicting susceptibility in regions with no roads. However, a triggerless approach can extrapolate naturally occurring susceptibility via priori knowledge of local topography and structural geology factors. Two models are then created for comparison: One model has integrated empirical Bayesian kriging and fuzzy logic considering basically local topography and structural geology, while the second model has employed a standard implementation of a weighted overlay using all available (8) input data layers. Statistical comparisons show that the first model has identified ~ 83%, compared to only ~ 28% for the latter model, of the 47 documented mass wasting events in the selected study site. These results demonstrate that the introduced triggerless approach is efficiently capable of modeling mass wasting susceptibility in areas lacking temporal datasets, which in turn can help in mitigating future geohazards.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3201-7
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Flow instabilities in two-phase or supercritical crust fluids and its
           possible relevance to seismo-electromagnetic disturbances
    • Authors: Nadezda V. Yagova; Viktor V. Yagov; Ashwini K. Sinha; Masashi Hayakawa; Evgeny N. Fedorov; Geeta Vichare
      Pages: 369 - 379
      Abstract: Flow pulsations in two-phase and single-phase near-critical fluids are considered as a possible source of ultra-low-frequency seismo-electromagnetic variations. The conditions for generation and suppression of density wave instability in the crust are analyzed and the surface electromagnetic effect due to streaming potential generation is estimated. The upper limit of amplitude of magnetic field variations due to density wave instability is about 0.1 nT for single-phase supercritical and 1 nT for two-phase flow oscillations in the frequency range \(10^{-4}{-}10^{-2}~\)  Hz for the temperature gradients and spatial scales possible during strike slip events. The signal is characterized by a decaying amplitude with typical relaxation time of about several quasi-periods. The possibility of generation of very low-frequency flow pulsations in two-phase fluids via individual bubble evolution and interaction with external acoustic waves is discussed.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3203-5
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Dynamic process simulation of rainfall-induced Sanxicun landslide based on
           a thermo-poro-elastic approach
    • Authors: Yu Luo; Wei Liu; Siming He; Jiang Yuanjun; Xiaoqing Lei
      Pages: 415 - 428
      Abstract: The Sanxicun landslide occurred on July 10, 2013, in Sanxicun Village, which is located in Dujiangyan City, Sichuan Province, China. It travelled up to 1200 m, destroyed 11 houses, and killed 166 people in the village. To explain how this landslide could travel such a large distance and cause such serious damage, this study used a thermo-poro-elastic approach coupled with the Savage–Hutter model to simulate the dynamic process of the Sanxicun landslide. The simulated results were compared with the actual results, as well as those of other researchers. It showed that the simulated results for the landslide profile and mass accumulation scope were basically consistent with the actual results. The simulated landslide runout was 1242 m, which was quite close to the actual value. The simulated maximum mass accumulation thickness was 16.4 m. The maximum velocity was 32.6 m/s, which was between those calculated by Yin et al. (J Eng Geol 22(2):309–318, 2014), Yin et al. (Landslide 13:9–23, 2016), and the various trends were found to be consistent. The temperature change and the pore water pressure evolution in the shear zone during sliding are also obtained by simulation. This study had recreated the Sanxicun landslide motion process from the view of thermo-poro-elastic coupling within the shear zone.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3209-z
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Energy savings evaluation in public building sector during the 10th–12th
           FYP periods of China: an extended LMDI model approach
    • Authors: Minda Ma; Ran Yan; Weiguang Cai
      Pages: 429 - 441
      Abstract: Energy savings can be treated as an indicator to reveal the effectiveness of energy efficiency task (EET) in the building sector, especially in the public buildings. However, evaluating the values of energy savings in public buildings (ESPB) was challenged by the missing data sources and inadequate tools in China. To overcome these problems, this study applied an extended Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model to examine the contributions of different impact factors affecting the public building energy consumption (PBEC) and further evaluated the ESPB values during the 10th–12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) periods in China. Results included three aspects: (1) Absolute values of the contribution of the adjusted PBEC intensity to PBEC denoted the ESPB values in China. (2) Total values of ESPB were 99.9 Mtce during the 10th–12th FYP periods of China. Concretely, the ESPB values during the three FYP periods were as follows: 71.091 Mtce (the 12th FYP period), 19.075 Mtce (the 11th FYP period), and 9.734 Mtce (the 10th FYP period). (3) Effective EET of public buildings was a strong support for the rapidly growing ESPB during the three FYP periods. Furthermore, this study suggested that China should issue the official data on energy consumption in the building sector as quickly as possible, and this action would deeply help the government design targeted plans and policies for the future EET in the building sector.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3210-6
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Geo-anthropogenic aberrations and Chennai floods: 2015, India
    • Authors: S. M. Ramasamy; A. Vijay; S. Dhinesh
      Pages: 443 - 477
      Abstract: The flood occurred in December 2015 in Chennai, the capital city of the state of Tamil Nadu, India, is a major disaster in the history of the region as it caused the loss of 421 human lives, affected over 2 million people and the loss of properties worth of US$ 80,000 million. There were beeline of observations through media and dailies, all attributing the floods to the indiscriminate urbanization. In the context of lack of any scientific observations on the disaster which occurs often, and at the same time the Chennai region is geologically vibrant with active geodynamics viz. tectonics and tectonically induced riverine and coastal geomorphic processes, a study was undertaken involving all the features related to both geodynamics and anthropogeny to unfurl the mysteries behind the recent flood disaster. In the study, ArcGIS-based spatial databases were generated on the (1) flood inundation interpreted from post-flood MODIS satellite data, (2) geodynamic features related to earth movements, riverine/fluvial and coastal geomorphology interpreted from IRS LISS IV FCC and GeoEye satellite data, (3) anthropogenic features viz. encroached drainages, water bodies and the wetlands extracted from IRS and GeoEye satellite data and (4) integrated geo-anthropogenic data. Using these GIS databases, spatial modelling was carried out between the flood inundation data and the geodynamic, anthropogenic and geo-anthropogenic data sets which revealed that these have significantly controlled the December 2015 floods of Chennai city. The GIS-based spatial correlative study between the flood and the geodynamic features indicated that the land arching, deepening and land subsidence related to post-collision tectonics; and the tectonically tutored phenomenon of river migration and the resultant occurrence of huge system of palaeochannels and the complex drainage patterns, and the coastal geomorphic features viz. palaeobeach ridges and swales, defunct swamps and the wide tidal flats have controlled the floods. The study with anthropogenic features indicated that the unmindful obstructions of drainages, encroached water bodies and encroached segments of the tidal flats and the swamps were the loci for the floods, whereas the spatial analysis between the flood and integrated geo-anthropogenic data gave fine resolution information that the anthropogenic features depending upon the geodynamic features with which these are associated determined the floods; for example, (1) the obstructions of drainages along deflected drainages, compressed meanders and tectonic deepening, (2) encroachment of water bodies in zones of deflected drainages and tectonic subsidence and (3) encroachment of tidal flats and encroachment of Pallikaranai swamp in zones of tectonic deepening. These observations have lead to broader remedial strategies.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3213-3
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Liquefaction potential mapping in Dholera region of western India
    • Authors: Sarda Thokchom; Vasu Pancholi; B. K. Rastogi; N. N. Dogra
      Pages: 479 - 495
      Abstract: Liquefaction is one of the most destructive secondary effects caused by large earthquakes, which is most common in saturated soil deposits. In the present study, liquefaction potentials of soils in the southern part of Ahmedabad district of Gujarat state in western India are determined and a liquefaction potential map is prepared. For preparing this map, we studied lithology of the area, geotechnical soil properties, standard penetration resistance (N1)60, ground water level and peak ground acceleration. The liquefaction potential was determined using Japan Road Association method based on standard penetration test (SPT). We analyzed data from 63 boreholes for estimating liquefaction potential. N-value correction for SPT was carried out and normalized to achieve a standardized value of (N1)60. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels of 0.19 and 0.30 g are considered for the analysis. The results of the analyses indicate that the presence of predominantly clayey soil with high plasticity does not give high liquefaction. The liquefaction potential index maps are produced which can be used effectively for development plans and risk management practices in this area.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3214-2
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Back analysis of ground vibrations which cause cracks in buildings in
           residential areas Karakuyu (Dinar, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey)
    • Authors: Mehmet Ozcelik
      Pages: 497 - 509
      Abstract: The Karakuyu village (Dinar) is located in the south-western Turkey. Karakuyu settlement area suffered from ground vibration. There are two reasons for ground vibration in that area. One of them is earthquake and other is rock blasting. Geological structure and tectonics have great influence on vibrations in the area. An earthquake of magnitude Ms = 6.1 occurred on 1 October 1995, causing causalities and damage to buildings in Dinar and its vicinity. The earthquake forces during the main shock were amplified by poor dynamic characteristics of alluvial soils, thus resulting in damage to buildings. Limestone quarries are other source of ground vibration because of blasting. In this study, the source of vibration causing cracks in buildings in the Karakuyu residential area was investigated. Blasting at limestone quarries and past earthquake activities are analysed of ground vibrations which cause cracks in buildings. In the scope of this study, the source of the vibrations which cause the observed cracks in buildings were investigated using back analysis. As a result of the study, earthquake-induced vibrations on structural behaviour of buildings were found critical.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3215-1
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • A system to detect potential fires using a thermographic camera
    • Authors: Chijoo Lee; Hyungjun Yang
      Pages: 511 - 523
      Abstract: This paper describes a fire monitoring system, based on a thermographic camera, for electrical appliances in interior spaces. These appliances are at particular risk because they are vulnerable to the carelessness of users (46% of electrical appliances fires are caused this way). The system compromises a thermographic camera, rotating on a two-axis robotic arm, controlled by a fire monitoring algorithm that detects the appliances’ status. Once the system’s accuracy and ability to identify the status of each appliance had been tested, the camera’s rotation sequence was planned. To achieve the best efficiency, bearing in mind that fires can break out very quickly, the sequence was based on the distance between monitored appliances. Over a nine-hour period, monitoring six appliances, the proposed method resulted in about 295 (about 7%) more rotations than those produced by a method of arbitrary ordering. This effectiveness increases when more appliances are monitored over greater periods. The system’s main contribution to fire safety is the application and full utilization of the thermal camera, detecting the beginnings of a fire before it can break out.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3224-0
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • Effects of drought and flood on crop production in China across
           1949–2015: spatial heterogeneity analysis with Bayesian hierarchical
    • Authors: Huili Chen; Zhongyao Liang; Yong Liu; Qingsong Jiang; Shuguang Xie
      Pages: 525 - 541
      Abstract: China is an agricultural country with the largest population in the world. However, intensification of droughts and floods has substantial impacts on agricultural production. For effective agricultural disaster management, it is significant to understand and quantify the influence of droughts and floods on crop production. Compared with droughts, the influence of floods on crop production and a comprehensive evaluation of effects of droughts and floods are given relatively less attention. The impact of droughts and floods on crop production is therefore investigated in this study, considering spatial heterogeneity with disaster and yield datasets for 1949–2015 in China mainland. The empirical relationships between drought and flood intensity and yield fluctuation for grain, rice, wheat, maize and soybean are identified using a Bayesian hierarchical model. They are then used to explore what social-economic factors influenced the grain sensitivity to droughts and floods by the Pearson’s coefficient and locally weighted regression (LOSEE) plots. The modeling results indicate that: (a) droughts significantly reduce grain yields in 28 of 31 provinces and obvious spatial variability in drought sensitivity exists, with Loess Plateau having highest probability of crop failure caused by droughts; (b) floods significantly reduce grain yield in 20 provinces, while show positive effect in the northwestern and southwestern China; (c) the spatial patterns of influence direction of droughts and floods on rice, maize and soybean are consistent with the grain’s results; and (d) promoting capital investments and improving access to technical inputs (fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation) can help effectively buffer grain yield lose from droughts.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3216-0
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
  • The effects of small particles on soil seismic liquefaction resistance:
           current findings and future challenges
    • Authors: Yu Huang; Liuyuan Zhao
      Pages: 567 - 579
      Abstract: The natural and artificial sand soils always incorporate other small particles, which makes the soil liquefaction resistance difficult to predict. The particle size may change from 10−5 m (e.g., fine particles) to 10−8 m (e.g., ultrafine particles), and the soil behaviors change dramatically when such particles are present. Newly reported soil liquefaction cases involving fine particles provide great challenges to seismic design codes. To make it clear, this paper reviewed effects of small particles on soil liquefaction in three different types. The non-low plastic fines (5–75 μm), clay particles (0.1–5 μm), and ultrafine particles (1–100 nm) are discussed, respectively. Many scholars found that liquefaction resistance decreased at first but increased as fine particles (non-low plastic fines or clay particles) were added. This phenomenon can be attributed to the lubrication effect of fine particles. However, when particles in nanometer scale, the strong bond between particles and hydration adsorption of nano-suspension improve liquefaction resistance. There are still many challenges to understanding the roles of small particles in liquefaction, for example, determining relative density for a high fine content, determining particle shape effect (e.g., aspect ratio, flatness, and particle roundness), as well as the long-term reinforcement performance of ultrafine particles. In engineering practice, it suggests that the seismic design codes address the effects of non-plastic fines in laboratory tests. As for some new liquefaction mitigation methods by ultrafine particles, we believe that the standard penetration test may not be appropriate to evaluate soil improvement effect, because the test results cannot reflect the properties change of pore water.
      PubDate: 2018-05-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3212-4
      Issue No: Vol. 92, No. 1 (2018)
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
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