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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [239 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2355 journals]
  • Assessing flood hazard using flood marks and analytic hierarchy process
           approach: a case study for the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam
    • Authors: Chinh Luu; Jason Von Meding; Sittimont Kanjanabootra
      Pages: 1031 - 1050
      Abstract: The production of flood hazard assessment maps is an important component of flood risk assessment. This study analyses flood hazard using flood mark data. The chosen case study is the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam. The impacts of this event included 17 deaths, 230 injuries, 91,739 flooded properties, 11,530 ha of submerged and damaged agricultural land, 85,080 animals killed and widespread damage to roads, canals, dykes and embankments. The flood mark data include flood depth and flood duration. Analytic hierarchy process method is used to assess the criteria and sub-criteria of the flood hazard. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria are generated based on the judgements of decision-makers using this method. This assessment is combined into a single map using weighted linear combination, integrated with GIS to produce a flood hazard map. Previous research has usually not considered flood duration in flood hazard assessment maps. This factor has a rather strong influence on the livelihood of local communities in Quang Nam, with most agricultural land within the floodplain. A more comprehensive flood hazard assessment mapping process, with the additional consideration of flood duration, can make a significant contribution to flood risk management activities in Vietnam.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3083-0
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Using high-resolution satellite imagery to provide a relief priority map
           after earthquake
    • Authors: Hamid Reza Ranjbar; Alireza A. Ardalan; Hamid Dehghani; Mohammad Reza Saradjian
      Pages: 1087 - 1113
      Abstract: After the earthquake occurrence, collecting correct information about the extent of damage is essential for managing critical conditions and allocating limited resources. The prepared building damage maps sometimes bring about waste of time required for rescuing individuals under the rubble by wrongly conducting rescue teams toward regions with a lower rescue priority. In this research, an algorithm based on using a proposed standard at database level was developed to prioritize damaged buildings by considering five key elements of land use type, the degree of damage to buildings, the land use differentiation index, time of the highest population density in each land use, and time of disaster’s incidence. The steps of the proposed method which was implemented in the MATLAB environment include: detecting buildings on the pre- and post-event imagery, implementing texture features for each candidate building, choosing the optimal features by genetic algorithm, determining the degree of building damage in three classes of negligible damage, substantial damage, and heavy damage by using the difference between chosen features as inputs of the designed neurofuzzy inference system. Data collected from field observations were compared to the output obtained from the proposed algorithm. This comparison presented a general accuracy of 88% and Kappa coefficient of 79% in the classification of buildings into three damage classes. The proposed standard then was used for classifying damaged buildings into relief priorities of high, medium, and low. Findings revealed that the relief priority map could be a basis for correct guidance of relief and rescue teams during crucial times following earthquakes.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3085-y
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Experimental and theoretical study on the effect of unsteady flow on the
           fracturing pressure in hydraulic fracturing test
    • Authors: Mingze Liu; Guang Zhang; Guogang Gou; Bing Bai; Shaobin Hu; Xiaochun Li
      Pages: 1137 - 1151
      Abstract: Reasonable determination of formation fracturing pressure concerns the stable operation of underground fluid injection projects. In this work, we studied the effect of unsteady flow on fracturing pressure. Hydraulic fracturing tests on low permeable sandstone were conducted with the injection rate between 0.1 and 2.0 ml/min. Then, the fracturing pressure prediction models for hollow cylinder under both unsteady flow and steady flow conditions were deduced. Finally, the effect of unsteady flow on the fracturing pressure was studied based on the experimental result and several influence factors. It was shown that fracturing pressure increased with the elevated pressurization rate in the tests, while the slope of the variation curve decreases. The model considering unsteady flow can reflect the variation tendency of fracturing pressures in experiments, while fracturing pressures from the model considering steady flow are invariant with different pressurization rates. Fracturing pressure decreases with the elevated rock permeability and increases with the elevated fluid viscosity, and these two effects are actually generated by the unsteady flow. Whether to consider the unsteady flow has no significant influence on the effect of rock tensile strength on fracturing pressure when the tensile strength is very low. However, when the tensile strength is high, the effect of unsteady flow cannot be neglected.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3088-8
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Coastal morphology and beach stability along Thiruvananthapuram,
           south-west coast of India
    • Authors: Neelima Thankappan; Noujas Varangalil; Thomas Kachapally Varghese; Kurian Njaliplackil Philipose
      Pages: 1177 - 1199
      Abstract: Shoreline changes are largely dependent on coastal morphology. South-west coast of India is a high energy coast characterised by monsoon high waves, steep beach face and medium-sized beach sand. Waves are generally from west and west south-west during rough monsoon season and from south-west during fair weather season. Shoreline change along this coast is studied with reference to coastal morphological features. Various morphological features, modifications and chronological positions of shoreline are analysed with the information derived from multidated satellite imageries, toposheets and GPS shoreline mapping along with extended field survey. Image processing and GIS techniques have been used for the analysis of data and presentation of results. Sediment accumulation on the leeward side of artificial structures such as harbour breakwaters and groynes is used as a sediment transport indicator. Artificial structures such as seawalls, groynes and harbour breakwaters modify morphology. Shoreline south of headlands/promontories and breakwaters are stable or accreting due to net northerly longshore sediment transport while erosion tendency is observed on the north side. Lateritic cliffs fronting the sea or with seasonal beach undergo slumping and cliff edge retreat as episodic events. Spits adjoining tidal inlets are prone to shoreline variations due to oscillations of inlet mouth. Interventions in the form of inlet stabilization and construction of coastal protection structures trigger erosion along adjoining coasts. Seawalls constructed along highly eroding coasts get damaged, whereas those constructed along monsoon berm crest with frontal beaches for protection against monsoon wave attack are retained. Fishing gaps within seawalls are areas of severe temporary erosion during rough monsoon season. Accretion or erosion accompanies construction of harbour breakwaters in a stable coastal plain. Close dependence of shoreline changes on morphology necessitates detailed understanding of impacts on morphology prior to introducing any intervention in the coastal zone.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3090-1
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Analysis of dynamic behavior of Darideresi-II Dam by ANSYS
    • Authors: Dilek Taylan; Tuba Aydın
      Pages: 1223 - 1235
      Abstract: The dams are built to supply water needs of people, to produce electricity and to supply irrigation water in agricultural activities since ancient times. They are very important because of their contribution to energy production. The construction of dams is very difficult and costly. It is vital that they are resistant to all kinds of effects, since they are built to prevent flooding in the region. The most important and dangerous of these effects are earthquake forces. It is very important that the dams are designed to be durable. In this study, the Darideresi-II Dam reservoir located in Isparta was examined in terms of the behavior under various earthquake loads. To reflect the behavior of the dam in a more realistic way, the finite element method is used. While developing this model, the material specifications and boundary conditions are taken into account. The dam reservoir was modeled using ANSYS program, and its behavior under different earthquake accelerations was investigated. The deformation and stress forces under earthquake accelerations are taken into account. By examining these results, it is interpreted how the Darideresi-II Dam reservoir will behave during earthquake.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3092-z
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Crowdsourcing photograph locations for debris flow hot spot mapping
    • Authors: Hone-Jay Chu; Yi-Chin Chen
      Pages: 1259 - 1276
      Abstract: This study shows the feasibility of obtaining hazardous hot spot information on landslide and debris flow from crowdsourced data. Historical hazard or disaster photographs were voluntarily uploaded by the public to a Web photograph album. A total of 2245 hazard photographs from 1973 to 2015 were crowdsourced, and each photograph was tagged with geographical coordinates. After the removal of outliers, 96% of the photograph points were found within the 4 km potential debris flow buffer of existing databases, and none was found along the steep slopes with a mean of 14°. The photograph hot spot analysis using local Moran’s I or G i * was identified statistically significant without subjective judgment. The DBSCAN model was also used to detect hot spot clusters effectively. The model parameters were nearly automatically generated on the basis of the count plot and the nearest neighbor distance graph. The results of these approaches were generally consistent with the hazardous hot spot maps and strongly related to central and southern Taiwan from the crowdsourced photograph data. Results reveal that the hot spot areas are found in areas with faults and near the potentially weak and fractured rocky regions. The majority of the landslides occur near the fault line because the strong ground motions triggered by an earthquake propagated along the fault rupture plane. Hot spot mapping using crowdsourced data can be used to estimate where debris flow will frequently occur and show how large the debris flow will be. Potentially hazardous areas can be effectively determined by the hot spot analysis of crowdsourced data.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3098-6
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • The intriguing tsunami of 19 March 2017 at Bandar Dayyer, Iran: field
           survey and simulations
    • Authors: Amir Salaree; Reza Mansouri; Emile A. Okal
      Pages: 1277 - 1307
      Abstract: We present a field survey and a number of simulations of the local Persian Gulf tsunami of 19 March 2017 at Bandar Dayyer, Iran, which resulted in one death, five persons missing and significant damage to the port. The field survey defined the inundated area as extending \(\sim\, 40\) km along the coast, with major effects concentrated on an \(\sim\, 8\) km stretch immediately west of Dayyer, a maximum run-up of 3 m and maximum inundation reaching 600 m. In the absence of significant earthquakes on that day, we first test the possibility of generation of a landslide; however, our simulations for legitimate sources fail to reproduce the distribution of run-up along the coast. We prefer the model of a meteorological tsunami, triggered by Proudman resonance with a hypothetical weather front moving at 10 m/s in a NNW azimuth, which could be an ancillary phenomenon to a major shamal wind system present over the Persian Gulf on that day. More detailed simulations of the Dayyer tsunami would require an improved bathymetric grid in the vicinity of the relevant coastal segment.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3119-5
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Multi-agent simulation-based residential electricity pricing schemes
           design and user selection decision-making
    • Authors: Chen Wang; Kaile Zhou; Lanlan Li; Shanlin Yang
      Pages: 1309 - 1327
      Abstract: Multi-agent system employs the functions of communication, coordination and cooperation among intelligent agents to help people judge and analyze complex phenomena that cannot be directly observed, and it has become an important tool for solving large-scale complex problems. The problem of demand response (DR) in electric power system is difficult to be modeled due to the complicated environment and continuously evolving subjects. Multi-agent system can simulate the operation mechanism of electric power system, thus playing an important role in solving the DR problems. In this study, based on multi-agent simulation, we establish a multi-agent model of residential power market and propose a satisfaction function of residential users about electricity price. We focus on the interaction process among all the agents of power supply side, selling side and demand side and conduct simulation to obtain the selection and decision-making of residential users on different electricity pricing schemes. The results show that multi-agent system is beneficial to analyze, simulate and solve the DR problem in power market. Also, the satisfaction function of residential users on electricity price can support power selling enterprise to better understand the intention of residential users when choosing electricity pricing schemes and participating in DR program.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3096-8
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Effects of providing measures against earthquakes: experimental studies on
           the perceived risks of disasters and disaster preparedness intentions in
    • Authors: Kazuya Nakayachi
      Pages: 1329 - 1348
      Abstract: This research examined the effects of providing measures against disasters on recipients’ perceived risks and preparedness intentions by conducting two experimental studies. A provision of a set of emergency food was manipulated in the first experiment. Participants (N = 143) were randomly assigned to the provided condition or non-provided condition. In the second experiment (N = 123), provision of an emergency toilet kit was manipulated. The results of the two experiments consistently indicated that (1) the provision of a measure increased the recipients’ perceived risks of the disaster concerned, (2) it increased their preparedness intentions for the disaster, and (3) it had no effects on perceived risks of or preparedness intentions against disasters unrelated to the measure provided. These results were contrary to the prediction deduced from the protection effect and single action effect. The findings in this study encourage promoting the risk management policy of providing people with disaster measures as the first step in disaster preparedness.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3099-5
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • A methodology to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities. Case
           study: Mexico City, Mexico
    • Authors: Sonia Morán-Rodríguez; David A. Novelo-Casanova
      Pages: 1349 - 1375
      Abstract: We developed a model to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities in Mexico City, Mexico, following these steps: (1) designing a theoretical framework (TF) to measure structural, non-structural, functional, and administrative-organizational vulnerabilities; (2) measurement of the vulnerability conditions of the analyzed facility by using the TF; and (3) estimation of the hospital’s seismic vulnerability by comparing the measured vulnerability to the TF’s vulnerability indicators by taking into account the optimal case. The TF was developed considering a scoring system and international standards for risk management in hospitals. The methodology establishes the degree of vulnerability of the analyzed institution as well as its interrelations with external infrastructure systems. This tool also identifies existing failures to estimate expected damage. The methodology was applied to the National Cardiology Hospital, the Children’s Hospital “Dr. Federico Gómez,” and the “Hospital de Jesus” of Mexico City. The vulnerability problems in these three hospitals are common within them, and some of the main causes of vulnerability found are: (1) the lack of technology to resistant seismic shaking; (2) the need to develop or update disaster response plans; (3) the need of periodic and proper maintenance to hospitals’ buildings; (4) the lack of sufficient financial resources for vulnerability reduction projects and autonomous operations of the hospital during 3–5 days after a disaster occurs. We believe that vulnerability in these health facilities can be reduced with low-cost procedures and that the methodology developed here will support the decision-making processes to reduce seismic risk in Mexico City.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3101-2
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • The role of social capital, personal networks, and emergency responders in
           post-disaster recovery and resilience: a study of rural communities in
    • Authors: Arif Mohaimin Sadri; Satish V. Ukkusuri; Seungyoon Lee; Rosalee Clawson; Daniel Aldrich; Megan Sapp Nelson; Justin Seipel; Daniel Kelly
      Pages: 1377 - 1406
      Abstract: The factors that explain the speed of recovery after disaster remain contested. While many have argued that physical infrastructure, social capital, and disaster damage influence the arc of recovery, empirical studies that test these various factors within a unified modeling framework are few. We conducted a mail survey to collect data on household recovery in four small towns in southern Indiana that were hit by deadly tornadoes in March 2012. The recovery effort is ongoing; while many of the homes, businesses, and community facilities were rebuilt in 2013, some are still under construction. We investigate how households in these communities are recovering from damage that they experienced and the role of social capital, personal networks, and assistance from emergency responders on the overall recovery experience. We used an ordered probit modeling framework to test the combined as well as relative effects of (a) damage to physical infrastructures (houses, vehicles, etc.); (b) recovery assistance from emergency responders (FEMA) as well as friends and neighbors; (c) personal network characteristics (size, network density, proximity, length of relationship); (d) social capital (civic engagement, contact with neighbors, trust); and (e) household characteristics. Results show that while households with higher levels of damage experienced slower recovery, those with recovery assistance from neighbors, stronger personal networks, and higher levels of social capital experienced faster recovery. The insights gained in this study will enable emergency managers and disaster response personnel to implement targeted strategies in facilitating post-disaster recovery and community resilience.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3103-0
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Study on the gravity center evolution of air pollution in Yangtze River
           Delta of China
    • Authors: Hao Li; Yan Song; Ming Zhang
      Pages: 1447 - 1459
      Abstract: With the rapid development of China’s economy, air pollution is becoming extremely serious. The spatial–temporal evolution of air pollution is conducive to the management of air pollution. The paper is proceeded into three steps. Firstly, based on the generalization principal component analysis method, the comprehensive air pollution evaluation index is established. Then, the gravity center model is utilized to explore the spatial–temporal evolution of air pollution in Yangtze River Delta from January 2014 to December 2016. Finally, the contribution decomposition method is utilized to explore the contribution to gravity center evolution. The main results are as follows: (1) The air pollution have obvious seasonal and regional differences in Yangtze River Delta. (2) The gravity center of air pollution continues to westward after 2014 with the characteristic of the north–south circular movement. (3) Hefei City and Yangzhou City have huge impact on the gravity center evolution of air pollution. The conclusions could be helpful for Chinese government to control the air pollution in Yangtze River Delta.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3110-1
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) and software applications for
           earthquake disaster management with special reference to Turkey
    • Authors: Penjani Hopkins Nyimbili; Turan Erden
      Pages: 1485 - 1507
      Abstract: Earthquake disasters pose significant risks and remain a serious threat for millions of people causing a devastating loss of lives and damage to the infrastructure resulting in huge socio-economic and environmental losses in many regions worldwide. In the last decade, recent major and catastrophic earthquake occurrences have underscored the critical importance of the increasing need for effective disaster management in considering appropriate planning, responses and strategies, with time and complex decision-making, being vital across the four phases of the disaster and emergency management (DEM) life cycle-preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery. In this paper, selected spatial decision support systems (SDSSs) related to the geographic information system-based applications in earthquake DEM, ranging from scenario or simulation based, early warning and rapid response and loss estimation systems, have been analysed. These have been generalised into global systems to include HAZTURK, QLARM, SELENA, DBELA, CATS, PAGER and regional and local systems comprising of ELER, HAZUS-MH, KOERILoss, MAEviz, EQRM and LNECLOSS. From the analysis of SDSS usage worldwide, but especially in Turkey, HAZTURK has been recommended for implementation of earthquake risk and loss estimation studies in Turkey based on its significant comparative advantages over other SDSSs and the suitability and applicability to the local conditions of Turkey, which have been discussed in this research. Key challenges to be addressed, ranging from issues in spatial data acquisition, quality, interoperability, data exchange and lack of coordination among associated institutions involved in earthquake DEM and recommendations, as well as future functional improvements and developments of HAZTURK software, have been characterised for successful implementation in Turkey.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3089-7
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Correction to: Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in
           Seaside, Oregon, USA
    • Authors: George R. Priest; Laura L. Gabel; Nathan J. Wood; Ian P. Madin; Rudie J. Watzig
      Pages: 1509 - 1512
      Abstract: Due to a procedural error in construction of Figs. 8 and 9, listed minimum speeds to beat the tsunami wave in areas of Seaside seaward of Neawanna Creek are too high. The two figures should be replaced by the new figures below.
      PubDate: 2018-01-11
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3154-2
      Issue No: Vol. 90, No. 3 (2018)
  • Landslide susceptibility mapping by using statistical analysis in the
           North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) on the northern part of Suşehri Town,
    • Authors: Gökhan Demir
      Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to obtain the landslide susceptibility mapping and compare the models of logistic regression (LR), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and frequency ratio (FR) applied in a part of Suşehri a long the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ, Sivas, Turkey). At first, a landslide inventory map was created from various sources such as aerial photographs, field studies, and satellite images. Then, the inventory map was randomly separated into an analysis dataset 65% for practicing the models, and the rest 35% was used for validation purpose. In analysis for landslide susceptibility, the following factors were used: lithology, slope aspect, topographical elevation, distance to stream, distance to roads, slope gradient, and distance to faults. To get speed and facility in our analysis, all descriptive and spatial information was entered into GIS system and consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using models in GIS. At last for validation, the landslide susceptibility maps, the rest of the analysis dataset, which was not used in the modeling process, was considered and accomplished with operating characteristic curves and area under the curve. The results showed that the area under the curves obtained using the AHP, LR, and FR methods are 0.884, 0.837, and 0.835, respectively. In general, all three models were reasonably accurate. The resultant maps would be useful for regional spatial planning as well as for safe construction areas planning.
      PubDate: 2018-02-06
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3195-1
  • Evaluation of CHIRPS and its application for drought monitoring over the
           Haihe River Basin, China
    • Authors: Feng Gao; Yuhu Zhang; Xiulin Ren; Yunjun Yao; Zengchao Hao; Wanyuan Cai
      Abstract: Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations data (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset was early evaluated and compared with 29 meteorological stations over the Haihe River basin in China, for the period 1981–2015. Seven statistical and categorical metrics were applied to evaluate the performance of CHIRPS with gauge measurements at multi-time scales (monthly, seasonally and annually). Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the drought indicator, the applicability of this new long-term satellite precipitation product for drought monitoring was investigated in this study. Results indicate that the good performances were performed at multiple temporal scales (monthly, seasonally and annually). Although it tends to overestimate the higher precipitation in this region, CHIRPS demonstrated good agreement (R2 > 0.70) with gauge observations at monthly scale and greater agreements (R2 > 0.78) at seasonal and annual scales. Meanwhile, CHIRPS performed a good score of BIAS and lower error in a majority of months at multi-time scales. Because of its good performance at multi-time scales and the advantages of high spatial resolution and long-time record, CHIRPS was applied to derive the SPI over the Haihe River basin. It is evaluated and compared with stations observations to derive SPI at time scale of 1, 3 and 6 months. The results indicate that it performed good ability to monitor drought (R2 > 0.70) and successfully captured the historical drought years (1981, 1999, 2001 and 2012). Overall, this study concludes that CHIRPS can be a valuable complement to gauge precipitation data for estimating precipitation and drought monitoring in this region.
      PubDate: 2018-02-06
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3196-0
  • Hazard assessment of volcanic ballistic impacts at Mt Chihshin, Tatun
           Volcano Group, northern Taiwan
    • Authors: A. Nurmawati; K. I. Konstantinou
      Abstract: This study investigates the hazard posed by Volcanic Ballistic Projectiles (VBPs) in the area surrounding Mt Chihshin, Tatun Volcano Group, northern Taiwan. Based on the volcano’s current evolutionary stage, we consider two types of volcanic activity during which VBPs can be generated, namely hydrothermal and vulcanian eruptions. Hydrothermal eruptions may occur after a sudden decompression of water in the hydrothermal system of the volcano, typically due to mass removal processes, while vulcanian eruptions are caused by solidified magma that plugs the eruptive vent and gets blasted when this caprock is no longer able to withstand the pressure in the volcanic conduit. Initial velocities of ejected VBPs were estimated for each type of activity based on physical models and inserted as initial conditions to the equations that describe their motion. A hydrothermal eruption is assumed to occur at the NW flank of Mt Chihshin near the Hsiaoyiokeng fumarole, which is a place prone to flank instability, while a vulcanian eruption is assumed to originate from a central vent at the peak of Mt Chihshin. Modeling results suggest that the radii of the areas impacted by VBPs vary between 0.1 and 1.1 km for a hydrothermal eruption, while they become 1.4–5.1 km for a vulcanian eruption. Within these areas, roads, hiking trails, and public buildings lie within the impact areas; therefore, VBPs may potentially cause damage, injury, and even casualties.
      PubDate: 2018-02-05
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3192-4
  • Climate change-induced hazards and local adaptations in agriculture: a
           study from Koshi River Basin, Nepal
    • Authors: Abid Hussain; Golam Rasul; Bidhubhusan Mahapatra; Shahriar Wahid; Sabarnee Tuladhar
      Abstract: Changes in climate, associated hazards, local adaptations in agriculture, and socioeconomic factors affecting adaptation were investigated using data from a large survey of 2310 households (HHs) in the Koshi River Basin (KRB), Nepal. More than 80% of HHs had perceived changes in climate in the 10 years preceding the survey, and 20–40% had perceived increases in the occurrence of droughts, dry spells, floods, and livestock diseases. Around 36–45% of crop-growing HHs perceived a decline in the production of staple crops such as paddy, wheat, maize, and millets, which was mainly attributed to climate change and related hazards. The decline in local food production meant that HH dependence on external sources for food had increased. Only 32% of HHs had taken some form of adaptive actions in agriculture to address these challenges; actions included not planting certain crops, introducing new crops, changing farming practices, not rearing certain livestock species, and investing in irrigation. The factors affecting the likelihood of a household undertaking adaptive actions included literacy of the head of household, household size, size of owned agricultural land, diversification of income sources, and insurance. Based on these findings, the study has suggested some approaches in the KRB which could contribute to building agricultural resilience to climate change.
      PubDate: 2018-02-03
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3187-1
  • Hazardous area map: an approach of sustainable urban planning and
           industrial development—a review
    • Authors: Madhurima Ganguly; Rahul Aynyas; Abhishek Nandan; Prasenjit Mondal
      Abstract: A hazard map is a map which shows about all the vulnerable regions present in any country or at any specific place or location which is affected or will be affected by natural disaster, i.e., by earthquakes, landslides and flooding. It is also used in industries for locating and zoning the hazardous areas inside the premises as per the level of hazards. Hazard maps are used mainly for land management, hazard identification, geological surveys for insurance rate adjustments and hazard mitigation. In concern with its industrial and urban planning, hazard mapping is done by all the authority and workers to identify hazard at a particular place, and thus, they learn to develop maps for every hazardous location for identifying and mitigating potential hazards with special emphasis on economic and social parameter. This work is perhaps an attempt to catalogue all the hazardous map systems and techniques for developing hazardous maps associated with sustainable urban planning and industrial development, and suggestions to use hazardous maps for sustainable development have also been touched upon.
      PubDate: 2018-02-02
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3179-1
  • Modeling and analysis of mining subsidence disaster chains based on
           stochastic Petri nets
    • Authors: Yuejuan Chen; Jin Zhang; Anchao Zhou; Bo Yin
      Abstract: Coal mining that results in goaf causes ground surface subsidence. It will in turn cause a disruptive threat to the surface construction, water, and slope body, which constitutes a transitive relationship. In the process of a disaster chain, the interactions between disasters have serious negative consequences. To solve these problems, we clearly established model elements of the disaster chain and analyzed their control flow relationships. On that basis, the stochastic Petri nets, as a powerful mathematical modeling tool that can be used to describe discrete and distributed systems, were adopted to model the process of mine ground surface subsidence disaster chains using the DISChain_Net model. The cause and process of the destruction as well as the disaster consequences were discussed. Then, the crucial nodes in the process of the disaster chain delivery were identified, which enabled the decision makers to make a reasonable judgment and implement mitigation measures. The study will thus provide new research ideas for studying the mine ground surface subsidence disasters through modeling, analysis, and assessment.
      PubDate: 2018-02-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3190-6
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Heriot-Watt University
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