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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [199 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2329 journals]
  • Quantitative analysis of earthquake fatalities: case of Iran
    • Authors: Alireza Jahanandish; N. Nirupama
      Pages: 567 - 579
      Abstract: Earthquakes in Iran are major and chronic disasters, but there is a seemingly downward trend in the number of lives lost from earthquake disasters in the past five decades. This paper particularly examines whether factors such as urbanization, literacy rate, wealth, and retrofitting measures have contributed to the declining trend of fatalities over past decades. Data records of 1960–2010 have been used to demonstrate the fatalities trend and a shorter series of 1990–2010 has been used to carry out a statistical analysis due to limited availability of information on retrofitting practices in the country. Regression models run in two stages. The first stage consists of normalized fatalities of Iran’s earthquakes, regressed on urbanization, wealth, and retrofitting. The second stage involves the measure of retrofit as the dependent variable regressed over urbanization and/or wealth as explanatory variables. The resulted regression models clearly explain the importance of retrofitting measure in saving lives in earthquakes disasters, as well as providing economic advantages and robust environment to the population. The study provides significant guidance for public policy. Undoubtedly, retrofitting, started in the country from 1990, has decreased the number of deaths; nonetheless, the measure is found to be mostly enforced in the cities and not in rural areas. Decision makers can use the results of this study to prioritize retrofit in rural areas, more than ever, and as much as possible.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2778-6
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El
           Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)
    • Authors: Pablo Fraile-Jurado; José I. Álvarez-Francoso; Emilia Guisado-Pintado; Noela Sánchez-Carnero; José Ojeda-Zújar; Stephen P. Leatherman
      Pages: 581 - 598
      Abstract: Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2782-x
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Storm climate on the Danube delta coast: evidence of recent storminess
           change and links with large-scale teleconnection patterns
    • Authors: Florin I. Zăinescu; Florin Tătui; Nikolay N. Valchev; Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe
      Pages: 599 - 621
      Abstract: This paper presents an overview of storminess along the Danube delta coast since 1949 by analysing wind and wave data and discusses the influences of teleconnections on climate variability. To this end, a five-category storm classification is proposed based on wind speed intensity and storm duration. On average, this coast experiences 30 storms/year occurring predominantly in winter, three of them considered severe (categories III–IV). The extreme storms (cat. V) endanger most the coastal settlements and the back-beach ecosystems (sand dunes, wetlands, lagoons) and have a mean recurrence rate of 7 years, but occur with a large inter-annual variability more frequent during the late 1960s, the 1970s and the 1990s. The prevalence of northern storms, in particular for the severe ones (>90% frequency for wind speeds >20 m/s) is responsible for the vigorous southward longshore sediment transport, which shaped the Danube delta physiognomy over the last millennia. The application of the newly developed energetic (Storm Severity Index—SSI) and morphologic (Storm Impact Potential—SIP) proxies allowed the better assessment of both the storm strength and the temporal variation in storm energy. It appears that storm climate follows a cyclic pattern with successive periods of 7–9 years of high, moderate and low storminess in accordance with the main teleconnections patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, East Atlantic oscillation—EA, East Atlantic/Western Russia—EAWR, Scandinavian oscillation—SCAND). If NAO succeeded to explain best most of the storminess evolution (r = −0.76 for 1962–2005), it failed during the latest decade (since 2006) when an unprecedented low in storminess occurred. There is also evidence of increased southern circulation during the latter period, associated with a reversal of correlation with NAO (from negative to positive). Significant correlations were also found for the EA, EAWR and SCAND (r = −0.55, 0.56, 0.55, respectively, significant at p < 0.01) for all the study period suggesting that besides NAO, the north-western Black Sea coast storminess is considerably influenced by several modes of climate variability, most notable the EA and the EAWR, which succeed to address the recent decrease in storminess.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2783-9
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • The occurrence laws of campus stampede accidents in China and its
           prevention and control measures
    • Authors: Yong-ling Zhang; Xiao-bing Zhou
      Pages: 659 - 673
      Abstract: Stampede accidents have become the major threat to campus security in China. In order to grasp the occurrence regularity of campus stampede accidents in China and to prevent the accidents, statistical analysis methods and case analysis methods were employed to study the temporal and spatial characteristics and inducing factors of campus stampede accidents in China during 2000–2014. The results showed that the occurrence frequency and casualties of campus stampede accidents in China had larger inter-annual changes and presented a decreasing trend overall. Autumn had the largest occurrence frequency and casualties, respectively, accounting for 63 and 74%; winter took the second; and spring and summer were the least. Campus stampede accidents in China were distinct in week variation and an existed Monday phenomenon. Monday had the largest occurrence frequency and casualties, respectively, accounting for 32.4 and 23.1%. Campus stampede accidents in China mostly occurred in south-central China, and in the northwest and southwest borderlands. 92.3% of stampede accidents occurred on stairs. Primary schools had the highest occurrence frequency and casualties, occupying 71.2 and 60.7%. Education fund input, student–teacher ratio, and students’ enrollment had significant impact on campus stampede accidents in China.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2785-7
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Recovery planning model for roadways network after natural hazards
    • Authors: Milad Zamanifar; Seyed Mohammad Seyedhoseyni
      Pages: 699 - 716
      Abstract: Destructions resulted from natural hazards like earthquake, landslide, or flood in the urban roads and lifelines introduce their negative effects including the psychological damage to citizens as well as decreased urban functions that usually last for a long time. Thus, a quick and efficient recovery of infrastructures, lifelines, and service-providing facilities along with reducing reconstruction costs and time are essential. This paper proposed an approach that consists of four models for forming an algorithm in order to quantitating and integrating of the criteria that have decisive influence in the recovery of urban roadways after a natural disaster. Meanwhile, to aggregate and conclude the data that are collected by means of presented functions and formulations, we applied fuzzy VIKOR technique as a compromise ranking method. The model outputs a priority list showing the revival of which urban paths stands in higher priority for recovery operation after a natural disaster. Results show that not only the model is able to precisely quantize the selected criteria and provide an action plan for post-event recovery prioritization, but also it offers an appropriate order of transportation roads priority for recovery operations. Finally, the results from the recovery model application to a roadway system in Tehran area are provided.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2788-4
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Laboratory study on effects of submerged obstacles on tsunami wave and
    • Authors: Houssam Eddine Touhami; Mohamed Cherif Khellaf
      Pages: 757 - 771
      Abstract: This paper presents laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of effects of submerged obstacles on tsunami-like solitary wave and its run-up. This study was carried out for the breaking and non-breaking solitary waves on 1:19.85 uniform slope which contains a submerged obstacle. New laboratory experiments are performed to describe the mitigation of tsunami amplitude and run-up under the effect of submerged obstacles. We are based on experimental results obtained to validate the numerical model. The numerical modeling using COULWAVE aims essentially to show the effect of the obstacle on the shape of solitary wave and the limit of this effect. Using a multiple nonlinear regression, we have determined a model to estimate height of run-up according to the amplitude of the wave and the obstacle peak depth.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2791-9
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Infrastructure hazard resilience trends: an analysis of 25 years of
    • Authors: Aaron Opdyke; Amy Javernick-Will; Matt Koschmann
      Pages: 773 - 789
      Abstract: Hazard research has made significant strides over the last several decades, answering critical questions surrounding vulnerability and recovery. Recently, resilience has come to the forefront of scholarly debates and practitioner strategies, yet there remain challenges implementing resilience in practice, the result of a complex web of research that spread across numerous fields of study. As a result, there is a need to analyze and reflect on the current state of resilience literature. We reviewed 241 journal articles from the Web of Science and Engineering Village databases from 1990 to 2015 to analyze research trends in geographic location of studies, methods employed, units of analysis, and resilience dimensions studied, as well as correlations between each of these categories. The majority of the studies analyzed were conducted in North America, used quantitative methods, focused on infrastructure and community units of analysis, and studied governance, infrastructure, and economic dimensions of resilience. This analysis points to the need to: (1) conduct studies in developing country contexts, where resilience is particularly important; (2) employ mixed-methods for additional depth to quantitative studies; (3) connect units of analysis, such as infrastructure and community; and (4) expand on the measurement and study of environmental and social dimensions of resilience.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2792-8
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Dynamic relationship between functional stress and strain capacity of
           post-disaster infrastructure
    • Authors: Juyeong Choi; Abhijeet Deshmukh; Nader Naderpajouh; Makarand Hastak
      Pages: 817 - 841
      Abstract: To mitigate the impact of natural or man-made hazards on the services of an infrastructure facility, it is important to quantitatively assess its available capacity. For example, in a post-disaster scenario, critical infrastructure is likely to experience (i) excessive demand for the service of an infrastructure and/or (ii) compromised capacity because of damage to the infrastructure and the failure of infrastructure interdependencies. As the demand grows and nears the capacity limit of an infrastructure facility, a shortage of services required for the community’s recovery will occur. The development of mitigation strategies and an assessment of their effectiveness require a systematic approach. In this paper, a functional stress–strain principle for infrastructure facilities is proposed to quantitatively assess their serviceability in post-disaster scenarios. Functional stress in infrastructure management represents a service-related demand on an infrastructure facility, while strain indicates its coping capacity. The dynamic nature of infrastructure services will be considered depending on the relationship between demand and available capacity. The allowable range of functional stress is then defined, considering plastic and elastic patterns of responses of a facility during recovery to explore strain capacity variations. The proposed principle facilitates a systematic understanding of how infrastructure facilities can adapt themselves to growing stress and the maximum level of stress they can handle. The application of the proposed functional stress–strain principle is demonstrated through case studies of two infrastructure facilities in a post-earthquake scenario: a medical facility and a power facility.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2795-5
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Analysis of regional decoupling relationship between energy-related CO 2
           emission and economic growth in China
    • Authors: Yadong Ning; Boya Zhang; Tao Ding; Ming Zhang
      Pages: 867 - 883
      Abstract: China has become the biggest CO2 emitter in the world. In China, economic development in different regions is not the same. Thus, it is necessary to study the regional decoupling relationship between energy-related CO2 emission and economic development. Considering the regional difference of economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emission, provincial regions in China are divided into seven economic bands. The Tapio decoupling method is adopted to calculate the decoupling index in the seven regions over the study period 1996–2013. Furthermore, the WCDM is developed to study the driving factors governing the decoupling state. The result showed that decoupling development differed in each economic band; North-East and North-West, showed a better trend and a worse one, respectively, than the others. Economic factor showed a stable trend of negative effect, and energy intensity factor was the crucial factor to accelerate the process of CO2 emission decoupling. Only in Yangtze River delta, economic band had structural factor shown a positive effect during the research period, and emission efficiency factor was not stable and showed a negative effect in most years in every region.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2798-2
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Policy and systems of flood risk management: a comparative study between
           Japan and Spain
    • Authors: Isao Nakamura; Maria Carmen Llasat
      Pages: 919 - 943
      Abstract: This paper shows a comparison from the perspective of flood risk management between two regions of different countries: Tokyo Metropolis (Japan) and Catalonia (Spain). The comparison is based on flood damage data for a 30-year period (1981–2010), legislation, disaster management plans, recovering measures, and communication strategies. A total of 219 flood events and 110 deaths were recorded in Catalonia during 1981–2010, while there were 191 floods in Tokyo, during the same period, giving place to 27 deaths and missing people. In both countries, most of the deaths occurred outdoors and the majority as a consequence of imprudent behavior. Nearly 10% of flood victims in Catalonia were foreign citizens. Regarding the institutions from the state and the communities involved in flood risk management, we have found a similar structure between the two countries. In accordance with the European Floods Directive, all the Spanish regions susceptible of having floods have flood hazard maps for different return periods, including 500 years while in the case of Japan the return periods are usually shorter. Recently, flood risk maps have been built for Catalonia, but none is available in a foreign language. Although all the maps are available in Internet, in Spain it is not mandatory to distribute maps to the public neither evacuation maps in flood-prone areas. On the contrary, evacuation and hazard maps in Japan have some parts written in different languages. In both countries, flood hazard maps are not compulsorily linked to other countermeasures such as land-use regulation (the municipality has the last decision) or flood insurance. Thresholds of heavy rain warnings are similar in both countries, using rain amounts over both short and long periods. Although the Japanese method appears more sophisticated using humidity and runoff indexes, it is too complicated for people to understand it. In contrast, only Catalonia has forecast thresholds considering probability levels. On flood insurance, only Spain has governmental aid to the flood insurance system. The level of flood risk perception is low among the population in both countries, and social communication for flood risk is insufficient, mainly in Catalonia. Thus, it is very important that individuals recognize the flood risk in the area to reduce the number of victims.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2802-x
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Household factors and adopting intention of battery electric vehicles: a
           multi-group structural equation model analysis among consumers in Jiangsu
           Province, China
    • Authors: Wenbo Li; Ruyin Long; Hong Chen; Jichao Geng
      Pages: 945 - 960
      Abstract: The scope of this study was to analyze whether the relationships among past experience, perceived return, perceived risk, and intention to adopt battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are different because of household factors. Analysis was conducted by a multi-group structural equation model, and data were taken from 940 consumers in six cities in Jiangsu Province. Results show that the adopting intention is positively affected by perceived return, but negatively affected by perceived risk; past experience positively affects perceived return and adopting intention, but negatively affects perceived risk. Importantly, some of the above effects differ in strength for consumers in households characterized by different population, type of location, income, vehicle ownership, and accessibility to plug-in vehicles at home. Finally, implications for how these results can be applied to increase the adopting intention of BEVs are discussed.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2803-9
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Contrasting impacts of heat stress on violent and nonviolent robbery in
           Beijing, China
    • Authors: Xiaofeng Hu; Peng Chen; Hong Huang; Ting Sun; Dan Li
      Pages: 961 - 972
      Abstract: Previous studies investigating the relation between heat stress and crime incidents often focus on violent crimes. In this study, the impacts of heat stress on two types of robbery (violent and nonviolent) in China are compared using crime statistics collected in Beijing and heat stress indices that consider the combined effects of temperature and humidity. The results indicate that the abrupt change in the trend of robbery rates is affected by the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. The nonviolent robbery rates have a more pronounced seasonality and are better correlated with heat stress at daily scales, especially during the period from 2009 to 2014 when no trend exists. The results also demonstrate that both violent and nonviolent robbery rates significantly increase with heat stress in spring. The nonviolent robbery rates also significantly increase with heat stress in summer. The influence of heat stress on violent robbery rate is more complicated and nonlinear.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2804-8
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Study on the spatial and temporal differentiation and influencing factors
           of carbon emissions in Shandong province
    • Authors: Hui Zhang; Xiumei Sun; Wenwen Wang
      Pages: 973 - 988
      Abstract: To reduce carbon emissions effectively in Shandong province in New Normal economy, this paper presents a new way to reflect the situation of carbon emissions accurately from both time-perspective and spatial perspective. The characteristics of carbon emissions in Shandong province are presented during 2005–2014, and this paper explores the spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions branches in 17 cities. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions in Shandong province presented a steady growth, whereas the growth rate was low, and the proportion of coal consumption in energy structure was significantly higher than the national average. In addition, the spatial pattern of the carbon emissions in 17 cities presented obvious regionally distinction. Furthermore, the affecting factors governing carbon emissions are decomposed based on the Kaya identity. The results reveal that economic scale was the key factor to increase the carbon emissions, whereas energy efficiency was the main factor of carbon emissions reduction. Therefore, this paper draws government should promote carbon emissions reduction given priority to some regions virtually, while encouraging emission reduction in others.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2805-7
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Modeling the influence of urbanization on urban pluvial flooding: a
           scenario-based case study in Shanghai, China
    • Authors: Qingyu Huang; Jun Wang; Mengya Li; Moli Fei; Jungang Dong
      Pages: 1035 - 1055
      Abstract: Rapid urbanization has brought great productivity, prosperity and challenges to Shanghai in the last few decades. This paper focuses on the influence of urbanization on urban pluvial flooding, which frequently occurs and causes severe losses, especially in the central urban areas. We quantitatively evaluate the flood risk using scenario simulation methods. The involved scenarios were designed by incorporating two environmental variables (land subsidence and land use/land cover (LULC) change), three time points (2000, 2006 and 2012) and four degrees of rainfall magnitude, with 5-, 10-, 50- and 100-year return periods, respectively. A toolset was developed to model the hydrodynamic process of pluvial flooding in each scenario. The inundation area and average depth were selected as metrics to estimate the severity of flooding, and the corresponding F statistic and root-mean-square deviation were employed to quantify the inundation changes with the impact of all variables. Results suggest that the impacts of land subsidence and LULC change are a function of rainfall magnitude and display a spatial disparity across the entire study area. LULC change is the key factor contributing to the flood risk, which largely affects the inundation extent at a regional scale. Nonetheless, the effects of different land use types are distinctive. The inundation intensifies within industry and transportation land uses and alleviates within green space and waters. Furthermore, except for a slight change captured in the local water depth, the overall flood risk is less sensitive to the impact of land subsidence with varying rainfall magnitudes when compared to the LULC change.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2808-4
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Effect of seasonal and cyclonic winds on internal tides over the Bay of
    • Authors: Sachiko Mohanty; A. D. Rao; Himansu Pradhan
      Pages: 1109 - 1124
      Abstract: The influence of seasonal and cyclonic winds is studied on the characteristics of internal waves (IWs) over the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) by using MITgcm model. As the BoB experiences reversal of seasonal winds and also tropical cyclones during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months, its effect is seen through the computation of spectral estimates of the IWs. It is seen that the peak estimate is associated with the semidiurnal frequency at all the depths and is found higher in May compared to November. This is attributed to the presence of shallow mixed layer depth and deep thermocline due to the upwelling favorable winds. The computation of isopycnal displacement infers that the internal tides are present from 40 to 120 m depth in case of upwelling favorable winds of May, whereas, the presence of internal tides is restricted between 90 and 120 m for the downwelling favorable winds of November. During May, the available potential energy is also seen in a narrow coastal stretch, whilst it is absent in November. During the Hudhud cyclone period of October 7–14, 2014, it is noticed from the spectral estimates that the IWs of tidal frequency are replaced by inertial frequency with a periodicity of about 2 days as a consequence of strong cyclonic winds. The progressive vector diagram shows the mean current is initially westward up to October 17, 2014 and then northeastward with well-defined clockwise circulation. The maximum radius of inertial oscillation of 15 km is observed. After the cyclone ceases, the estimate associated with inertial frequency slowly diminishes and enhances the estimates related to internal tides. The simulations also suggest that the internal tides are absent for about 6 weeks as a response of the cyclonic winds.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2811-9
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Comparative assessment of water surface level using different discharge
           prediction models
    • Authors: Ernieza Suhana Mokhtar; Biswajeet Pradhan; Abd Halim Ghazali; Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri
      Pages: 1125 - 1146
      Abstract: Discharge is traditionally measured at gauge stations located at discrete positions along the river course. When the volume of water discharge is higher than the river bank, inundation to adjacent land occurs. Flood inundation mapping has largely relied on in situ discharge data. However, it cannot be accessed at ungauged sites. In recent literature, no comparative study on the impact of water level using different discharge models has been carried out. This paper evaluates the performance of three empirical formulas for discharge measurement to model flood inundation along Padang Terap River in Kedah, Malaysia, between October 31, 2010 and November 4, 2010. Water discharge was computed using three models, and the Manning-n values were assigned to the types of land use. Further, the rainfall obtained from gauge stations was interpolated using the Kriging interpolation method. Relative error and RMSE methods were used to evaluate the measured and predicted water surface elevation. The impact of predicted water surface elevation (WSE) from different land use types and terrain information was assessed. Dingman and Sharma’s model significantly presented good agreement between measured and predicted WSE with R 2 = 0.8034, followed by Manning and Bjerklie equations with 0.8024 and 0.7997, respectively. Moreover, Dingman and Sharma’s model produced less RE and RMSE with 13.09% and 2.27 m compared with the others. Therefore, the estimated discharge can be used in ungauged sites for flood inundation modeling. Manning-n, elevation, and slope affected the WSE.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2812-8
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Numerical simulation of the 30–45 ka debris avalanche flow of Montagne
           Pelée volcano, Martinique: from volcano flank collapse to submarine
    • Authors: Morgane Brunet; Laurent Moretti; Anne Le Friant; Anne Mangeney; Enrique Domingo Fernández Nieto; Francois Bouchut
      Pages: 1189 - 1222
      Abstract: We simulate here the emplacement of the debris avalanche generated by the last flank collapse event of Montagne Pelée volcano (30–45 ka), Martinique, Lesser Antilles. Our objective is to assess the maximum distance (i.e., runout) that can be reached by this type of debris avalanche as a function of the volume involved. Numerical simulations are performed using two complementary depth-averaged thin-layer continuum models because no complete models were available in the literature. The first model, SHALTOP, accurately describes dry granular flows over a 3D topography and may be easily extended to describe submarine avalanches. The second model, HYSEA, describes the subaerial and submarine parts of the avalanche as well as its interaction with the water column. However, HYSEA less accurately describes the thin-layer approximation on the 3D topography. Simulations were undertaken testing different empirical friction laws and debris avalanche volume flows. Our study suggests that large collapses (~25 km3) probably occurred in several times with successive volumes smaller than about 5 km3 entering the sea. This result provides new constraints on the emplacement processes of debris avalanches associated with these collapses which can drastically change the related hazard assessment such as the generated tsunami, in a region known for its seismic and volcanic risks.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2815-5
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Segmentation of Main Boundary Thrust and Main Central Thrust in Western
           Himalaya for assessment of seismic hazard by Mridula et al., Nat Hazards
           (2016) 84: 383–403
    • Authors: A. A. Shah; S. M. Talha Qadri
      Pages: 1245 - 1249
      Abstract: Mridula et al. (Nat Hazards 84:383–403, (2016) have tried to identify segments of two major thrust faults, the Main Boundary Thrust and Main Central Thrust, in Western Himalaya. This was done by using seismological and tectonic data where various patterns have been recognized. However, the study has used uncorrected seismological data to recognize patterns. This has serious limitations because the seismological data have huge errors with depth, which should be corrected before any pattern can be recognized. Since the earthquake data have not been corrected for depth, it is impossible to plot them on a tectonic map and to assign them to a particular fault. Such an exercise is possible only if the earthquake events are relocated for both depth and location. Further, the authors have used very old tectonic map, which has not been updated, and often the faults are not properly mapped as could be seen on the latest tectonic and topographic maps available. Thus, we aim to initiate a discussion on this and offer solutions which could improve the paper and give an opportunity for authors to rethink over their work.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2794-6
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Statistical tests for underestimation of loss distributions from NatCat
    • Authors: Mathias Raschke
      Pages: 1251 - 1258
      Abstract: In the (re)insurance industry, the risk from natural hazards such as earthquakes or floods is quantified by models for natural catastrophes, also called NatCat models. One important output of NatCat models is the distribution function for the annual maximum of loss occurrence. The opportunities to test this fully specified distribution with a statistical test are limited as only the m-largest annual maxima of loss occurrence are known for a sample of n years in most cases. Here, new test statistics are introduced to validate the NatCat models against underestimation. The basis is the transformation of the largest realisations by a conditional distribution of order statistics. The resulting realisations of a new random variable are independent, and their distribution is known if H 0 is correct. Feasibility test statistics are formulated. The most powerful of these is a linear combination of normally distributed random variables. It performs much better than the conventional Kolmogorov–Smirnov for the conditional distribution of the excess. Different issues and weak points of all test statistics are briefly discussed.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2784-8
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
  • Platform collapse incident of a power plant in Jiangxi, China
    • Authors: Xiang-Hao Zhao; Wen-Chieh Cheng; Jack S. Shen; Arul Arulrajah
      Pages: 1259 - 1265
      Abstract: This short communication gives a brief report of a recently anthropic hazard of collapse of a working platform for a cooling tower during construction in the city of Fengcheng in Jiangxi Province, China, which occurred on November 14, 2016. This collapse resulted in 74 people dead and 2 people injured. This short communication presents the accident background, accident scene, and related emergency response at first. The main reason for this collapse is the reduction in construction duration and lack of scientific management. Following control measures of this kind of collapses in the future are proposed: (1) to establish more meticulous laws to keep the rational profit of contractor; (2) to establish more strength punishment law; (3) to conduct site inspection during each step of significant construction; and (4) to train construction labors including both technical and law senses. By conducting these scientific management measures, the sustainable development can be achieved and benefits for the mitigation of construction induced hazards in China.
      PubDate: 2017-06-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2800-z
      Issue No: Vol. 87, No. 2 (2017)
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