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 Natural Hazards   [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [182 followers]  Follow         Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)    ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X    Published by Springer-Verlag  [2335 journals]
• Study on the CO 2 emissions embodied in the trade of China’s steel
industry: based on the input–output model
• Authors: Li Li; Yalin Lei; Chunyan He; Sanmang Wu; Jiabin Chen
Pages: 989 - 1005
Abstract: Abstract The impact of trade on the environment and the climate has become a focus of attention. Tending to develop industries with higher added values, developed countries rely on importing high energy consumption goods from developing countries, and however, some CO2 emissions are embodied in the process of import. Currently, the accounting method of the territorial responsibility used to get the international data of greenhouse gas inventories ignores the difference between domestic consumption and export demands. Thus, developing countries bear the responsibility of pollution emissions from the export. The steel industry is an important basic industry of China’s national economy as well as a vital part in the industrial system. With the expansion of trade scale, the impact of the export and import of China’s steel on CO2 emissions is growing. This paper studied the embodied CO2 emissions in the trade of China’s steel from 2005 to 2014, using the input–output model and the trade data of the China’s steel imports and exports. The results indicate that (1) the complete CO2 emissions of China’s steel industry are high. (2) The increase in the export scale makes the embodied CO2 emissions in the trade of China’s steel export increase, and (3) China is a net exporter of CO2 emissions in the steel trade. Especially after 2007, the value of China’s steel exports has been larger than that of China’s steel imports, so China had borne much CO2 emissions responsibility in the trade of China’s steel. Therefore, this paper puts forward that, in the future, the export structure of goods should be optimized into the high-tech products with the high added value, low energy consumption and low carbon emissions, and meanwhile, service industry is promoted to improve technical support to reduce CO2 emissions in the steel industry.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2727-9
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts in southeastern USA
• Authors: Subhasis Mitra; Puneet Srivastava
Pages: 1007 - 1038
Abstract: Abstract Droughts in the southeast USA have been linked to economic losses and intractable water conflicts. The region has witnessed several severe droughts events during the period from 1901 to 2005. In this study, spatiotemporal variability in meteorological drought characteristics in the southeast were analyzed using two different datasets by the means of standard precipitation index and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index for the period 1901–2005 for agricultural and non-agricultural seasons. The study periods were divided into three epochs 1901–1935, 1936–1970, and 1971–2005 and drought characteristics, in terms of severity, frequency, number, and trends were analyzed. Additionally, areal extent, drought severities and return periods associated with three severe drought years 1904, 1954, and 2000 were analyzed. Except for the state of Florida, results indicate decrease in drought severity during the recent epoch of 1970–2005 in the study domain. Trend analysis confirms that the study domain has become wetter over the last 105 years. Wetting trends were more prominent in the agricultural season. Additionally, droughts seem to have migrated from the western part of the study area encompassing the states of Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi to the Florida panhandle region during the recent epoch. Droughts exhibited higher spatiotemporal variability during the agricultural season compared to the non-agricultural seasons. Results also showed that early to mid-1950s experienced some of the most severe droughts in the study domain. Some of the drought events, such as the drought of 1954 and 2000, have been equivalent to a 100-year drought event in the southeast. The results from this study form the benchmark for studying the impacts of future climate change projections on meteorological droughts in the southeast.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2728-8
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Cut slope stability assessment along ghat road section of Kolli hills,
India
• Authors: S. Anbazhagan; V. Ramesh; S. E. Saranaathan
Pages: 1081 - 1104
Abstract: Abstract In the present study, cut slope stability assessment along ghat road section of Kolli hills was carried out by using various geotechnical parameters of rock and soil slope sections and structural kinematics of major discontinuities is presented. The rock slope (RS) stability assessment was carried out using Rock Mass Rating basic (RMRbasic) and Slope Mass Rating (SMR) classification systems. The type of failure and their Factor of Safety (FOS) for individual RS was calculated using Hoek and Bray method. In the case of soil slopes (SS), the FOS was calculated using Circular Failure Chart (CFC) and Limit Equilibrium (LE) methods. The input data for the slope stability analyses were collected through extensive field work followed by stereonet plotting and laboratory test. There are six rock slope sections, and five soil slope sections were taken into consideration for the cut slope stability analyses. The area depicts class II (RS-1, 2, & 6) and class III (RS-3, 4, & 5) of RMR classes. The SMR result depicts for RS-1, RS-2, and RS-6 are 64.40, 60.02, and 60.70, respectively, and falls in class II stable condition. The SMR values of RS-3 and RS-5 were 44.33 and 57, respectively, and come under the class III partially stable condition. The RS-4 with SMR value of 17.33 falls under the class I completely unstable condition. The FOS of planar failure case indicates that RS-3 (FOS = 0.22) is more unstable, while all other sections are having greater than 1 FOS. The calculated FOS values using CFC method reveals that the FOS is very close to 1 for all the SS sections that fall under completely saturated condition which indicates that these slope sections may fail during heavy rainfall. In LE method, the sections SS-3 and SS-4 are unsafe under partially and completely saturated (natural slope) condition. In average slope condition, all the SS sections are unsafe under partially or completely saturated conditions. The facets 2, 3, 4, and 5 required mitigation measures, to improve the stability of slopes. Site-specific mitigation measures were suggested for partially or completely unstable rock and soil cut slopes.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2731-0
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• The perceptions of social responsibility for community resilience to
flooding: the impact of past experience, age, gender and ethnicity
• Authors: Robby Soetanto; Aaron Mullins; Nebil Achour
Pages: 1105 - 1126
Abstract: Abstract Community resilience to flooding depends, to a large extent, on the participation of community members to take more responsibility for enhancing their own resilience. The perception of social responsibility (SR) which is argued to be one of the antecedents influencing individual’s willingness to undertake resilient behaviours can significantly contribute to community resilience through individual and collective actions. Understanding of factors influencing the perceptions of SR of individuals within community might help with developing strategies to increase the perceptions of SR. This research explores perceptions of SR in relation to flooding for householders and local businesses and establishes their relationships with experience of flooding and demographic factors of age, gender and ethnicity. The data were obtained via a questionnaire survey of three communities in Birmingham and one community in South East London, UK, three with experience of flooding and one without. A total of 414 responses were received and used in the multiple regression analysis. The analysis identified ‘experience of flooding’, ‘age’ and ‘South Asian’ ethnic group as significant variables, suggesting that older individuals from South Asian ethnic groups with previous experience of flooding are likely to be more socially responsible than others without these attributes.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2732-z
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Numerical simulation of physical and dynamical characteristics associated
with the severe thunderstorm on April 5, 2015 at Kushtia and Jhenaidah
• Authors: Samarendra Karmakar; Dewan Abdul Quadir; Mohan Kumar Das
Pages: 1127 - 1146
Abstract: Abstract The paper deals with the study of the physical and dynamical characteristics of a severe thunderstorm, which had occurred on April 5, 2015, at about 2100 UTC in the southwestern Bangladesh with location around 23.3–23.7N and 89.0–89.4E within the upazilas (sub-districts) of Kumarkhali and Shailkupa under the districts of Kushtia and Jhenaidah, respectively. The thunderstorm was associated with numerous hails of large size. More than 5000 birds which used to live in the bird sanctuary at Shailkupa and 22,011 birds in Chhaglapara Bird Sanctuary of Kumarkhali died as they were hit by the hails. Large hails also damaged crops, houses and forests over the thunderstorm hit areas. The evolution of the thunderstorm is studied by the WRF model, which is initialized using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis data of 0000 UTC of April 5, 2015. The simulated results provide a basis to study the physical and dynamical characteristics of the thunderstorm, which are generally not identified by the meteorological observations which are too sparse. The model has captured a micro-low over Kumarkhali and its neighborhood, which favored the occurrence of the severe thunderstorm. The model simulated rainfall is about 26 mm near the place of occurrence, which matches well with the area where the reflectivity of hydrometeor is maximum. The convective available potential energy is found to be 1600 J kg−1 at 1730 UTC near the place of occurrence of the thunderstorm; this indicates high atmospheric instability over the thunderstorm location for the formation of the thunderstorm. The vertical velocity, convergence, cloud water mixing ratio and the ice water mixing ratio and their vertical extensions are found to be satisfactory and responsible for the occurrence of large hails associated with the thunderstorm.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2733-y
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Three-dimensional flood routing of a dam break based on a high-precision
digital model of a dense urban area
• Authors: Xiaoling Wang; Wenlong Chen; Zhengyin Zhou; Yushan Zhu; Cheng Wang; Zhen Liu
Pages: 1147 - 1174
Abstract: Abstract Dense buildings are the major factor affecting urban flood routing. Currently, the study of urban dam-break flood routing primarily focuses on a simplified terrain model and 2D shallow water equations, which ignore the effects of dense urban buildings. Furthermore, the complex interactions between the dam-break wave and the wall surfaces of buildings are not reflected in the results. To tackle these problems, three-dimensional flood routing with a high-precision digital model of an urban area is studied in this paper. Firstly, the vector data of various land types is extracted from a remote sensing image, and the NURBS algorithm based on the TIN algorithm is introduced to construct a three-dimensional terrain model. Coupled with the vector data and the terrain model, a three-dimensional digital model of the urban area is established. Next, a three-dimensional $$k{-}\varepsilon$$ turbulence model is proposed for the flood routing simulation. A polyhedral grid with a second-order accuracy and a discrete format is used to divide the digital model of the urban area, and the governing equations are solved using the PISO algorithm. Finally, the superiority of the 3D mathematical model and the computational efficiency of the polyhedral mesh model are validated according to the urban flood routing experiments of Testa and Soares-Frazão. An urban reservoir, located in SZ City, China, is modelled to show that a dam-break flood in an urban area exhibits significant three-dimensional characteristics. Moreover, due to the surrounding buildings, the flood exhibits complex three-dimensional turbulence phenomena, including collision, reflection and vortices.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2734-x
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology:
analysis of Christchurch Public Hospital video data from the 22 February
Christchurch earthquake event
• Authors: Emily S. Lambie; Thomas M. Wilson; Erik Brogt; David M. Johnston; Michael Ardagh; Joanne Deely; Steven Jensen; Shirley Feldmann-Jensen
Pages: 1175 - 1192
Abstract: Abstract Earthquake epidemiological research indicates that the behavioural response influences the nature and severity of injuries sustained. However, there is no observational evidence of the actions individuals engage in during and immediately following earthquake shaking, and the context in which earthquake injuries and deaths are caused. Closed Circuit Television Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology has been developed as a tool to classify human behaviour during and immediately following earthquake shaking using real event video data. The coding methodology was applied to security video data captured during the 22 February 2011 Mw6.3 ‘Christchurch’ earthquake event from the Christchurch Public Hospital which experienced shaking intensity of MM9 lasting approximately 12–15 s. We applied this coding methodology to determine: demography, trans-event behavioural responses, post-event behavioural responses, influence of social context on behaviour, and influence of behaviour on injuries. A total of 213 individuals from 31 different camera views were analysed. Sixty-six per cent of the individuals were adult-aged females. The primary trans-event responses were to hold (26%) onto furniture, walls, and/or other people close to them and to look around (30%). No individuals were observed to perform all ‘Drop, Cover, Hold’ actions, the recommended action during strong earthquake shaking in New Zealand. Post-event behaviour included: running, walking, providing assistance, moving towards others, visual communication, and some individuals gave instructions. Social contextual behaviour varied depending on the role of the adult. There were no serious injuries linked to behaviour. The results of this initial study indicate the coding methodology can record the distribution of and variation in human behaviours. Therefore, objective observation of earthquake video data can provide a useful quantitative measure of human behaviour. Significantly, the process will enable researchers to look more closely at behaviours, as well as the social and physical contexts associated with injury risk during and immediately following earthquake shaking.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2735-9
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Joint return probability analysis of wind speed and rainfall intensity in
typhoon-affected sea area
• Authors: Sheng Dong; Chun-Shuo Jiao; Shan-Shan Tao
Pages: 1193 - 1205
Abstract: Abstract Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2736-8
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Comparison of two-dimensional flood propagation models: SRH-2D and
Hydro_AS-2D
• Authors: Basile Lavoie; Tew-Fik Mahdi
Pages: 1207 - 1222
Abstract: Abstract This article presents a comparison between two two-dimensional finite volume flood propagation models: SRH-2D and Hydro_AS-2D. The models are compared using an experimental dam-break test case provided by Soares-Frazão (J Hydraul Res, 2007. doi:10.1080/00221686.2007.9521829). Four progressively refined meshes are used, and both models react adequately to mesh and time step refinement. Hydro_AS-2D shows some unphysical oscillations with the finest mesh and a certain loss of accuracy. For that test case, Hydro_AS-2D is more accurate for all meshes and generally faster than SRH-2D. Hydro_AS-2D reacts well to automatic calibration with PEST, whereas SRH-2D has some difficulties in retrieving the suggested Manning’s roughness coefficient.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2737-7
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Seismic vulnerability assessment using association rule learning:
application to the city of Constantine, Algeria
• Authors: Abdelheq Guettiche; Philippe Guéguen; Mostefa Mimoune
Pages: 1223 - 1245
Abstract: Abstract We performed a seismic vulnerability assessment of the city of Constantine (Algeria) using the Risk-UE and datamining-based methods [association rule learning (ARL)]. The ARL method consists in establishing relationships between building attributes (number of stories or building age) and the vulnerability classes of the European Macro-seismic Scale, EMS98. This approach avoids the costly process of drawing up an inventory of building characteristics in the field, which often discourages the assessment of seismic risk initiatives in weak to moderate seismic-prone regions. We showed that the accuracy of the assessment is independent of the subset used for the learning phase leading to development of the Constantine vulnerability proxy. Considering only two attributes, the vulnerability assignment is equal to about 75%, reaching 99% if material is added to the attributes considered. Comparison of Risk-UE and ARL results revealed a reliable assessment of vulnerability, the differences having only a slight impact on the probability of exceeding the damage level computed by EMS98 or Risk-UE in Constantine. The results of this study suggest that the ARL-based vulnerability proxy is efficient and could be applied to the rest of Algeria.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2739-5
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Building damage assessment after the Riviera del Brenta tornado, northeast
Italy
• Authors: Mariano Angelo Zanini; Lorenzo Hofer; Flora Faleschini; Carlo Pellegrino
Pages: 1247 - 1273
Abstract: Abstract A tornado with severe intensity hit the municipalities of Pianiga, Dolo and Mira close to Venice, northeast Italy, causing damages on a wide number of residential and industrial buildings and destroying some historical villas. In this study, the authors show the results of the damage assessment survey performed in the first days after the occurrence of the extreme event. Limited literature deals with damage assessment of European building types due to wind actions, and the available one does not consider building vulnerability as key factor in the structural response of existing structures subject to tornado hazard. In this paper, structural damages surveyed in reinforced concrete frame structures and masonry buildings, representative of common Italian building types, are critically discussed. Additionally, this work provides a database of past tornado events in northeast Italy, evidencing how the analyzed area has been found to be quite prone to tornado hazard.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2741-6
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• A geospatial analysis of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath glacial lakes in the
Chandra Basin, Western Himalaya
• Authors: Lavkush Kumar Patel; Parmanand Sharma; C. M. Laluraj; Meloth Thamban; Ajit Singh; Rasik Ravindra
Pages: 1275 - 1290
Abstract: Abstract Geospatial studies carried out in two major proglacial lakes of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath (Chandra Basin, Western Himalaya) showed substantial expansion in their area and volume over the last four decades (1971–2014). The linear and areal expansions for the lakes Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath were 1889, 1509 m and 1, 0.6 km2, respectively. The results show that increased melting of the feeder glaciers over this period is major contributor to expand the volumes approximately 20 times of both the lakes Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath. This expansion of lakes volume of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath from 3.4 × 106 to 67.7 × 106 and 1.5 × 106 to 27.5 × 106 m3, respectively, is quite significance in terms of hazards generated from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). This kind of climate change induced increase in the rate of glacial melting is a cause of concern, as the Himalaya Mountains may turn out to be vulnerable to natural hazards like GLOF.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2743-4
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Empirical correlation of SPT blow counts versus shear wave velocity for
different types of soils in Dholera, Western India
• Authors: Sarda Thokchom; B. K. Rastogi; N. N. Dogra; Vasu Pancholi; B. Sairam; Falguni Bhattacharya; Vandana Patel
Pages: 1291 - 1306
Abstract: Abstract In the present study, a set of correlation relations between standard penetrations tests (SPT-N values) and shear wave velocity (Vs) for different categories of soils is developed for Dholera region, Gujarat state, Western India. Shear wave velocities were measured using multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW at 42 sites) and by PS logging (at 16 sites). SPT-N values were taken in total 87 geotechnical boreholes at depth interval of 3 m. Seismic site classification is done as per National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program of the USA. Total 336 pairs of SPT-N values and Vs data at different depths are used to develop the regression correlation between uncorrected SPT-N value and Vs and compared with the results of other workers from India and worldwide for all soils type. It is found that regression correlations developed for clay and all soils are almost similar to each other, for sand, the coefficient value is less and for silt, it is higher. The new regression equation gives good prediction performance. The present correlation can be used for the seismic hazard study for the study area and also for the other areas having similar soil strata using a process of validation.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2744-3
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• A selected dataset of the Iranian strong motion records
• Authors: H. Zafarani; M. R. Soghrat
Pages: 1307 - 1332
Abstract: Abstract Iranian strong motion records as well as detailed conditions of their instrument sites and the characteristics of their causative seismic sources are compiled and processed. The dataset consists of 2286 three-component records from 461 Iranian earthquakes with at least two high-quality records having moment magnitude from 3.9 to 7.3. These records are about 20% of the Iranian database and are suitable for seismic hazard analysis and engineering applications. Perhaps for the first time in the literature, the distance to the surface projection of the fault is reported for a great number of records corresponding to earthquakes with M > 6.0. The raw accelerations are processed using the wavelet de-noising method. Having corrected and filtered these raw data, the pseudospectral accelerations are calculated for each of the three components of time series, separately. In addition to the ground motion parameters, a large and comprehensive list of metadata characterizing the recording conditions of each record is also developed. Moreover, careful revision of the characteristics of the earthquakes such as location, magnitude, style of faulting and fault rupture plane geometry, if available, is carried out using the best available information in a scientifically sound manner. Finally, we also focus on special ground motion records including records with peak ground acceleration (PGA) >300 cm/s2 and distances less than 30 km. These are “exceptional” records in the Iranian dataset and include less than 2% of the selected dataset.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2745-2
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• China’s energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions: do carbon emission
reduction paths matter?
• Authors: Xiaofei Han; Jianling Jiao; Lancui Liu; Lanlan Li
Pages: 1333 - 1345
Abstract: Abstract To investigate the impact of carbon emission reduction paths on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China, in this study, quantitative carbon emission reduction paths in the period 2014–2020 are established by decomposing the target for emissions reduction. An optimization model of energy demand, into which reduction paths are incorporated, is then constructed from a goal-oriented perspective. The results suggest that energy consumption varies under different emission reduction paths. Coal demand is found to be much more sensitive to the choice of emission reduction path than other forms of energy; in particular, it responds strongly to the decreasing reduction path. We conclude that the decreasing reduction path is a better means than the increasing reduction path of achieving China’s emission reduction target for 2020 with the least amount of energy and the least amount of CO2 emissions.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2747-0
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Simultaneous adoption of contract farming and off-farm diversification for
managing agricultural risks: the case of flue-cured Virginia tobacco in
Pakistan
• Authors: Wencong Lu; Abdul Latif; Raza Ullah
Pages: 1347 - 1361
Abstract: Abstract Tobacco crop is of high economic significance for Pakistan in terms of valuable foreign exchange and being a high-value cash crop. However, changes in tobacco prices, input costs, effects of new tobacco law on producers and varying in economic conditions of the country have emerged as risk elements for tobacco production. This study was, therefore, designed to identify different risks that farmers encounter during the tobacco cultivation in Pakistan and to generate ideas for managing these risks. Various factors affecting farmers’ decision for simultaneous adoption of contract farming and off-farm diversification were analyzed in present research using bivariate and multinomial probit model. The data were obtained from April to September 2015 in selected districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan (that accounts for more than 94% of the total flue-cured tobacco production). The results suggest that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of tobacco growers significantly affect the adoption of risk management tools. Similarly, farmers risk perception of flood, heavy rains and hailstorms, heavy winds, pest and diseases, fire in curing furnaces, drought and risk attitude of farmers are important factors that affect the utilization of agricultural risk management tools. The findings of the current study will help in better understanding farmers’ behavior under risk and as a guideline for policy makers to anticipate different risk sources related to the tobacco crop.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2748-z
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Groundwater overexploitation and soil subsidence monitoring on Recife
plain (Brazil)
• Authors: Rejane Maria Rodrigues de Luna; Silvio Jacks dos Anjos Garnés; Jaime Joaquim da Silva Pereira Cabral; Sylvana Melo dos Santos
Pages: 1363 - 1376
Abstract: Abstract The city of Recife, in the northeast of Brazil, is formed by a coastal plain, which is surrounded by several hills, the Atlantic ocean and a number of rivers that cross the city. The plain was formed by fluviomarine sediment, which was produced by marine transgressions and regressions. Its hydrogeological characteristics and geographical position, located slightly above sea level, lead to water-related problems, such as coastal erosion and frequent flooding. In the last 50 years, an increase in the exploitation of groundwater has caused a lowering of the piezometric surface (up to 100 m at certain points). In porous sedimentary aquifers, pumping fluid decreases pore pressure and reduces the support provided by the overlying layers of soil. This reduction in pressure is caused by the lowering of the piezometric surface and leads to soil deformation, usually called subsidence. As a result of the excessive exploitation of groundwater in Recife, and the consequent decrease in groundwater levels, soil subsidence has become a great concern and requires careful investigation. Geodesic methods of monitoring and quantifying the vertical deformation of soil, caused by the removal of groundwater, have been used around the world. The present study describes a method of assessing the occurrence of soil subsidence in an area where excessive exploitation of groundwater has taken place. High-precision geometric leveling was used to quantify the phenomenon and to perform comparative analysis of altitude values from the year 1958 with more recent altitude values (from 2012 and 2015). The experiments confirmed a difference of 3.86 cm for one of the reference levels, located within the subsidence monitoring area. Thus, the leveling analysis provided estimates of a vertical displacement of approximately 0.68 mm/year in this area.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2749-y
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Artificial intelligence and geo-statistical models for stream-flow
forecasting in ungauged stations: state of the art
• Authors: Nariman Valizadeh; Majid Mirzaei; Mohammed Falah Allawi; Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan; Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd; Aini Hussain; Ahmed El-Shafie
Pages: 1377 - 1392
Abstract: Abstract Developing an accurate model for discharge estimation techniques of the ungauged river basin is a crucial challenge in water resource management especially in under-development regions. This article is a thorough review of the historical improvement stages of this topic to understand previous challenges that faced researchers, the shortfalls of methods and techniques, how researchers prevailed and what deficiencies still require solutions. This revision focuses on data-driven approaches and GIS-based methods that have improved the accuracy of estimation of hydrological variables, considering their advantages and disadvantages. Past studies used artificial intelligence and geo-statistical methods to forecast the runoff at ungauged river basins, and mapping the spatial distribution has been considered in this study. A recommendation for future research on the potential of a hybrid model utilizing both approaches is proposed and described.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2740-7
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Landslides on the Loess Plateau of China: a latest statistics together
with a close look
• Authors: Xiang-Zhou Xu; Wen-Zhao Guo; Ya-Kun Liu; Jian-Zhong Ma; Wen-Long Wang; Hong-Wu Zhang; Hang Gao
Pages: 1393 - 1403
Abstract: Abstract Landslide plays an important role in landscape evolution, delivers huge amounts of sediment to rivers and seriously affects the structure and function of ecosystems and society. Here, a statistical analysis together with a field investigation was carried out on the Loess Plateau of China to address the challenges. The study tracks landslide-related deaths and collects knowledge about this natural hazard. Since the 1980s, 53 fatal landslides have occurred, causing 717 deaths. As the most important trigger, rainfall induced 40% of the catastrophic landslides, while other factors, i.e., human activities, freeze–thaw and earthquake, accounted for 36, 23 and 1%, respectively. Furthermore, landslide frequency and death toll related to human activities were increasing as time went on. Landslide also plays an important role in sediment delivery, especially in areas with steep terrain. Sediment discharge from landslides accounts for a considerable proportion of the total soil loss in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River. In some catchments of the Loess Plateau, landslides contributed over 50% of the total sediment discharge. The result shows that landslide is a widespread geologic hazard in the rural area of the Loess Plateau, China.
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2738-6
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

• Retraction Note to: Explanation of liquefaction in after shock of the 2011
great east Japan earthquake using numerical analysis
• Authors: Xiao-Hua Bao; Guan-Lin Ye; Bin Ye
Pages: 1405 - 1405
PubDate: 2017-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2779-5
Issue No: Vol. 86, No. 3 (2017)

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