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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [171 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2336 journals]
  • Spatial and temporal changes in flood hazard potential at coastal lowland
           area: a case study in the Kujukuri Plain, Japan
    • Authors: Huali Chen; Yuka Ito; Marie Sawamukai; Tao Su; Tomochika Tokunaga
      Pages: 1513 - 1527
      Abstract: Abstract The spatial–temporal change in flood hazard potential in the coastal lowland area was analyzed in the Kujukuri Plain, Japan, where widespread occurrence of land subsidence, the expansion of urban area, and the change in land cover have been reported. The data on flood hazard potential factors (river system, elevation, depression area, ratio of impermeable area, detention ponds, and precipitation) at three different periods, i.e., 1970, 2004, and 2013, were integrated by using geographic information system. Main data sources used are airborne laser scanning data, leveling data, Landsat TM data, river watershed maps, and precipitation data from precipitation observation stations and radar precipitation data. The flood hazard assessment maps for each time were obtained by using an algorithm that combines the flood hazard potential factors with weighted linear combinations based on multicriteria decision analysis technique. By comparing each factor layer map and flood hazard condition maps of different periods, it was found that the changes in different factors were quite variable during different periods with different spatial distributions. From year 1970 to year 2004, most of the areas where flood hazard potential was increased were concentrated in the central and northeastern part of the study area. During the period from year 2004 to year 2013, the areas where flood hazard potential was increased moved to the north and east. This study provides a flexible method to study the spatial–temporal variation of the flood hazard and, hence, could help flood management and environment protection in similar coastal lowland areas.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2495-6
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Shrinking of Vann Island, Gulf of Mannar, SE coast of India: assessing the
    • Authors: M. Jayaprakash; K. Sivakumar; S. Muthusamy; R. R. Krishnamurthy; J. K. Edward Patterson
      Pages: 1529 - 1538
      Abstract: Abstract Vaan Island, which is one of 21 islands in Gulf of Mannar Marine National Park, is chosen as study area which is formed above the coral reef by sedimentation and deposition of tidal and current activities. By using Landsat images, the area (Vann Island) was calculated from the year 1973–2015 with analyzing tools of Qgis and Saga Gis. Multispectral Landsat images were processed to extract and delineate the interface line of island surface and seawater. The area of each year polygon vector is calculated using the Qgis field calculator tool. During the 1973, the area of Vaan Island is about 265,479 m2 and at present the area is calculated as 40,733 m2. About 84 % of the island area is reduced and inundated by the seawater due to sea level rise and anthropogenic activities such as coral sand mining, local tourism and fishing activities. At this rate of submergence, it can be predicted that by 2022 Vaan Island will completely submerge into the sea. From this study, it is concluded that geospatial techniques are one of the successful and reliable techniques to map this type of low-lying island to conserve and manage the resources that affected by the geogenic and anthropogenic processes.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2496-5
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Snowfall-related deterioration behavior of the Ming Great Wall in the
           eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
    • Authors: Tianbiao Pu; Wenwu Chen; Yumin Du; Wenjuan Li; Na Su
      Pages: 1539 - 1550
      Abstract: Abstract The Ming Great Wall in the Qinghai Province is an important section of the Great Wall of China. Most of this section is fabricated with rammed earth. The preserving environment of the Ming Great Wall is characterized by frequent snowfalls in winter, strong evaporation, and large diurnal temperature variations. Nearly all types of deterioration, including crazing, gully erosion, surface crust erosion, bottom sapping, and collapses, are evident in the Ming Great Wall in the Qinghai Province. Based on field investigations, the snowfall in winter and the presence of soluble salts are the primary factors causing the deterioration of the rammed earth. To investigate the coupled effect of freeze–thaw cycles and salinization on this deterioration process, a series of geotechnical tests are performed at Lanzhou University using samples collected from the collapse accumulation near the earthen sites. The test results showed that the microstructure damage in the rammed-earth materials caused by the freeze–thaw cycles and salinization is the primary controlling factor for the deterioration process of rammed-earth structures.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2497-4
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Exploring representativeness and reliability for late medieval earthquakes
           in Europe
    • Authors: Paolo Forlin; Christopher Gerrard; David Petley
      Pages: 1625 - 1636
      Abstract: Abstract Seismic catalogues of past earthquakes have compiled a substantial amount of information about historical seismicity for Europe and the Mediterranean. Using two of the most recent European seismic databases (AHEAD and EMEC), this paper employs GIS spatial analysis (kernel density estimation) to explore the representativeness and reliability of data captured for late medieval earthquakes. We identify those regions where the occurrence of earthquakes is significantly higher or lower than expected values and investigate possible reasons for these discrepancies. The nature of the seismic events themselves, the methodology employed during catalogue compilation and the availability of medieval written records are all briefly explored.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2502-y
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Local politicians as linking social capital: an empirical test of
           political behavior after Japan’s 3/11 disasters
    • Authors: Daniel P. Aldrich; Yoshikuni Ono
      Pages: 1637 - 1659
      Abstract: Abstract After a massive catastrophe, local decision makers have a large number of potential sources of advice and assistance. Yet, we know little about those to whom politicians reach out at the local, regional, and national levels, and what drives the intensity of contact with these targets. Using original survey data drawn from more than 240 council members from cities, towns, and villages in the Tohoku region of Japan, we investigate the factors influencing consultation after the March 11, 2011, compounded disasters. We find strong variation in their outreach to actors, including national-level politicians, governors, prefectural politicians, civil servants, and local constituents. Controlling for a number of compounding factors, such as town size, financial capability, and personal characteristics of the politician, we find that the degree of damage in their own communities robustly influences outreach after crisis. The more damage, the more local politicians reach out to a broader network of potentially useful connections more often. Partisan and independent town council members behave differently; those with party connections (especially those with connections to a governing party) reach out more than those without. Our findings about diversity and intensity of outreach bring important implications for residents, politicians, and non-governmental organizations after disaster.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2503-x
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Geological evidences of extreme waves along the Gujarat coast of western
    • Authors: Nilesh Bhatt; Madhav K. Murari; Vishal Ukey; S. P. Prizomwala; A. K. Singhvi
      Pages: 1685 - 1704
      Abstract: Abstract Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 informed on the amplitude of marine inundations that can occur in the eastern coasts of India. Geological signatures of such high-energy marine wave events are inferred from the older sedimentary records using chaotic deposits and/or boulder deposits with a word of caution to link them with tsunami, as similar records could be seen linked with super typhoon like Haiyan occurred in Pacific Ocean on 7 November 2013 (Kennedy et al. in Coast Eng J 58(1):1640004, 2016). We present here the geological evidences of high-energy marine wave events from the coastline of Gujarat in western India and suggest that these are tsunamigenic because the Arabian Sea has not experienced super cyclones (known as typhoon in Pacific region) at least since 100 years (Dube et al. in Appl Math Model 9:289–294, 1985), and local bathymetric conditions are not favourable to cause strong coupling of infragravity waves and sea swells that happened at eastern Samar island, the Philippines (Roeber and Bricker in Nat Commun 6:1–18, 2015. doi:10.1038/ncomms8854; Shimozono et al. in J Geophys Res Oceans 120(6):4463–4486, 2015). In the region between Mundra and Bhadreshwar of the Kachchh coast, a tsunami event inferred by the presence of sand layer sandwiched between mud layers occurred around 1.3 ± 0.3 ka, based on optically simulated luminescence (OSL) dating method. Further, in the coastline between Madhavpur and Chorwad, large boulders as imbricates, scattered and embedded blocks in a sandy matrix are seen. OSL date for this event was 6.6 ± 0.7 ka. Occurrence of a tsunamite at Ratiya, north of Madhavpur yielded an OSL date of 35.4 ± 4.3 ka. Geological evidences further suggested that the possible energy source of sand layers was a tsunami event in the Strait of Hormoz. And, the boulders of Ratiya–Madhavpur–Chorwad segment were most possibly driven by waves from the submarine earthquake and/or landslides in the southern Owen Ridge.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2507-6
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • A local-scale approach to estuarine flood risk management
    • Authors: Paula Freire; Alexandre O. Tavares; Luís Sá; Anabela Oliveira; André B. Fortunato; Pedro P. dos Santos; Ana Rilo; João L. Gomes; João Rogeiro; Rui Pablo; Pedro J. Pinto
      Pages: 1705 - 1739
      Abstract: Abstract New challenges in flood risk management are raised by climate change and land-use development. These challenges are particularly complex in estuarine and coastal systems, where different hazard sources interact in a dynamic socio-economic context. This paper presents an innovative approach to support flood risk management in estuaries. The approach, developed at a local-scale basis, is applied in the case study of the Tagus estuary (Portugal). The methodology is supported by the regional framing of the study area and integrates hazard, exposed elements, territorial vulnerability and risk assessments considering different climate scenarios. Through the involvement of the various risk management dimensions, the results allow the definition of a new decision-making supporting framework for emergency and land-use planning. At the emergency level, the results include a WebGIS interface providing an early warning system for the locations with highest risk of flooding and the definition of emergency planning guidelines. A set of flood adaptation actions based on land-use and occupation measures are recommended to increase resilience in face of flooding and future sea level rise. The institutional capacity-building is achieved through the availability of information and tools that can effectively support decision-making. Additionally, the outcomes contribute to better understand flood risk in estuaries and to strengthen its prevention, preparedness and response, priorities defined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2510-y
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • A protective seam with nearly whole rock mining technology for controlling
           coal and gas outburst hazards: a case study
    • Authors: Qiang Sun; Jixiong Zhang; Qiang Zhang; Wei Yin; Deon Germain
      Pages: 1793 - 1806
      Abstract: Abstract Coal seams with low gas permeability and high gas outburst hazards are becoming more serious as coal mines extend deeper, but there are no appropriate protective coal seams for this kind of coal seam in China. In this paper, mining technology using a protective seam with nearly whole rock (PSNWR) is used to improve gas drainage and ensure safety during production. The characteristics of the distribution and occurrence of PSNWRs and their mechanical properties are analyzed. A theoretical mechanics model and three-dimensional numerical model are established to study the controlling effect of PSNWR mining on pressure-relief gas drainage. In this context, the mining process, system and gas extraction design for PSNWRs are introduced. The results for Pingdingshan No. 12 Coal Mine show that mining with a PSNWR 2.0 m thick can effectively reduce the danger of coal and gas outbursts and improve gas drainage and utilization. The gas drainage rates are >80 %, which significantly increases the social, economic and environmental benefits of Pingdingshan No. 12 Coal Mine.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2512-9
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • A fuzzy c-means approach regionalization for analysis of meteorological
           drought homogeneous regions in western India
    • Authors: Manish Kumar Goyal; Ashutosh Sharma
      Pages: 1831 - 1847
      Abstract: Abstract Drought is a frequently occurring natural hazard in many parts of the world and affects economy, environment and human lives. In India, the western states are severely affected by droughts. Global warming and climate change is causing more frequent and intense droughts in the region. In the present study, meteorological drought is studied using standardized precipitation index for four different timescales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Drought homogeneous regions are identified over 81 stations in three western states of India using monthly precipitation data from 1901 to 2002. Based on fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm and five cluster validity indices, the optimal number of clusters obtained for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales are 4, 5, 3 and 4, respectively. Homogeneity of the clusters is ensured using two L-moment-based homogeneity tests (H-Test). Clusters obtained for different timescales are compared and significant variation in cluster pattern is observed for different timescales. The identified regions are anticipated to assist policy maker in effective planning and management of water resources during drought.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2520-9
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Time series effects of dissolved oxygen and nitrogen on Long Island Sound
           lobster harvest
    • Authors: Zinnia Mukherjee; Dipak K. Dey; Rangan Gupta
      Pages: 1849 - 1858
      Abstract: Abstract The formation of hypoxic water zones in marine ecosystems across the world is a growing concern among marine scientists and regulatory agencies that focus on marine resource management. Nutrient-rich water with excessive nitrogen content is widely recognized as a key anthropogenic cause for the development of hypoxic zones. While the dissolved oxygen level indicates the presence of current hypoxic water conditions, the aquatic nitrogen concentration indicates the possibility of formation of hypoxic zones in future time periods. Hence, understanding the effects of both these variables on current and future fish population is important for improved water quality management and sustainability of marine resources. In this paper, we estimate the temporal effects of these two key variables on lobster harvest from three contiguous fishing zones in the Long Island Sound that vary in ambient water quality. We find there is no contemporaneous effect of these variables on harvest in both the hypoxic fishing zone and the two non-hypoxic zones. While there is some evidence of lagged effects of these variables on harvest, no systematic pattern emerges in these effects that distinguishes the hypoxic fishing zone with non-hypoxic zones.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2522-7
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Spatial distribution of natural γ radiation exposure and its
           relationship to soil types
    • Authors: Ahmad Termizi Ramli; Mohammad Syazwan Mohd Sanusi; Muhammad Hisyam Lee; Sallehuddin Sahrone; Nor Zati Hani Abu Hanifah
      Pages: 1859 - 1872
      Abstract: Abstract An extensive survey of natural γ radiation dose rate levels was measured throughout the Melaka State, Malaysia. The main objective of the present study is to verify the influence of different soil types γ radiation exposures in air using statistical analyses. One-way analysis of variances ANOVA and post hoc test using Fisher’s least significant difference (LSD) were used to test the probability of significance difference between the dose rates and soil types. The survey involved 541 measurement points of terrestrial gamma radiation dose rates in an area of 1650 km2 which covers five major soil groups based on six FAO/UNESCO soil orders. The spatial dose distributions and descriptive statistics of all measured γ radiation dose rates are presented. It has the mean value of 183 nGy h−1. The significance test using ANOVA shows that all dose rates for four soil groups were significantly different from each other with p sig. value <0.005 and the f-ratio lies in the rejection region, f-critical (F α,(2, n−2)). The post hoc test using Fisher’s LSD shows that there are two main groups of dose rates with each range 152–175 nGy h−1 and 218–233 nGy h−1. These two classification groups indicated the low and high range of dose rates due to the different soil groups derived from different parent rocks. An estimation of average annual effective dose equivalent to the individual in the study area was 1.12 mSv year−1. For granitic soil region, the public is expected to receive slightly high effective dose of 2 mSv year−1. The statistical significance test shows that the soil types significantly influenced the γ radiation exposures received by the public on the ground level.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2524-5
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Modeling landslide susceptibility in Greece: a weighted linear combination
           approach using analytic hierarchical process, validated with spatial and
           statistical analysis
    • Authors: G. Sakkas; I. Misailidis; N. Sakellariou; V. Kouskouna; G. Kaviris
      Pages: 1873 - 1904
      Abstract: Abstract A new model for Greece depicting, at a national scale, the spatial distribution of areas prone to landslide phenomena, taking into account preparatory and triggering criteria, is presented. This is a baseline study for prioritizing research in hazardous areas with more detail. Landslide occurrence is very high in certain areas of the Greek territory, such as Western Greece. Analysis is performed by applying two models, both based on slopes and geotechnical data, earthquake occurrence and precipitation. The first, which yields better results, also takes into account land use data. Since there was no access to landslide inventories, landslide susceptibility was performed on empirical estimates of the aforementioned criteria, using the analytic hierarchy process in order to derive the proper weights for each criterion. The final outcome is calculated based on the weighted linear combination of the above-mentioned criteria. The present study covers the area of Greece with an accuracy of 500 m × 500 m grid cell size. Results have been validated with observed events, landsliding urban areas and other studies, thus identifying landslide prone areas in a satisfying manner.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2523-6
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Application of AHP with GIS in drought risk assessment for Puruliya
           district, India
    • Authors: Moumita Palchaudhuri; Sujata Biswas
      Pages: 1905 - 1920
      Abstract: Abstract The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in combination with geographic information system (GIS) provides an effective means for disaster monitoring. In the present study, GIS was used for the spatial analysis of drought for the Puruliya district, West Bengal, India. Fourteen parameters, such as annual rainfall, monthly rainfall, maximum temperature, monthly temperature, maximum evapotranspiration, monthly evapotranspiration, relative humidity, soil texture, landuse/landcover, slope, groundwater, cultivators, agricultural labourers and population were chosen and thematic maps for each parameter were developed. AHP was adopted to develop pairwise comparison matrices and to calculate the weightage factors of each parameter. Fourteen thematic maps were analysed, integrated and finally drought severity map was generated using GIS. The results showed that 70 % of the total area of Puruliya district is under severe drought affecting about 14 blocks. The output map thus obtained will provide information on severity of drought vulnerability which has practical relevance to agricultural importance and help in combating drought.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2526-3
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • How to increase earthquake and home fire preparedness: the fix - it
    • Authors: Helene Joffe; Gabriela Perez-Fuentes; Henry W. W. Potts; Tiziana Rossetto
      Pages: 1943 - 1965
      Abstract: Abstract Published, evaluated community intervention studies concerning natural hazard preparedness are rare. Most lack a rigorous methodology, thereby hampering the development of evidence-based interventions. This paper describes the rationale and methodology of a cross-cultural, longitudinal intervention study on earthquake and home fire preparedness, termed fix-it. The aim is to evaluate whether and how the intervention brings about behaviour change in the targeted communities in two coastal cities with high seismic risk: Seattle, USA and Izmir, Turkey. Participants are adult residents of these cities. The intervention group attends a 6-h workshop, which focuses on securing items in the household. The control group does not attend the workshop. All participants complete baseline and post-intervention, as well as 3- and 12-month follow-up assessments. The primary outcome measure is an observational measure of nine preparedness items for earthquake and fire in participants’ homes. This is evaluated alongside participants’ self-reports concerning their preparedness levels. Secondary outcomes are changes in levels of self-efficacy, perceived outcome, trust, corruption, empowerment, anxiety and social cohesion. Results from the first of the studies, conducted in Seattle in September 2015, indicate that while the fix-it intervention is effective, in the longer term, multi-hazard preparedness is increased by the mere act of going into people’s homes to observe their preparedness levels along with assessing self-reported preparedness and sociopsychological orientation towards natural hazards. This protocol and study aim to augment the empirical literature on natural hazard preparedness, informing national and international policy on delivery of evidence-based community interventions to promote multi-hazard preparedness in households.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2528-1
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Recent changes of extreme dryness/wetness pattern and its possible impact
           on rice productivity in Jiangsu Province, southeast China
    • Authors: Jin Huang; Fangmin Zhang; Yan Xue; Qi Li
      Pages: 1967 - 1979
      Abstract: Abstract Based on the data of monthly precipitation and rice productivity at 61 meteorological stations in Jiangsu during 1966–2010, the possible impact of dryness/wetness variability on rice productivity was explored in this paper. Principal component analysis was applied to the climate-induced rice productivity index (CRPI) series and divided Jiangsu into six sub-regions—south, northwest, east, middle, southwest and northernmost. Mann–Kendall trend test for monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series in each sub-regions shows that most of Jiangsu was dominated by wetter tendency in August and drier tendency in September. CRPI had stronger negative correlation with monthly SPI series in the majority of sub-regions. Especially, the SPI in October, March, July and August had significantly negative linear relationship with CRPI in south Jiangsu, northwest Jiangsu, middle Jiangsu and southwest Jiangsu, respectively, which indicated the obvious unfavourable impact of extreme wetness episodes on rice productivity.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2529-0
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Building damage analysis for the updated building dataset of Istanbul
    • Authors: Betül Ergün Konukcu; Himmet Karaman; Muhammed Şahin
      Pages: 1981 - 2007
      Abstract: Abstract Although the occurrence of earthquakes cannot be prevented, the vulnerabilities of them can be mitigated by decreasing the population, strengthening the vulnerable assets or both. The impact of the earthquake would be even higher if it is not managed properly. Istanbul has been affected by earthquakes throughout its history. The most recent damages in Istanbul that occurred due to an earthquake were during the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake. Despite the fact that the epicenter of the Kocaeli Earthquake was far away from Istanbul (approximately 110 km), there were lots of damaged buildings, and many people died or were injured in Istanbul. Based on scientific studies after the 1999 earthquakes, it is predicted that Istanbul will face a major earthquake in the near future and that it will cause severe damage to the urban environment. In order to mitigate damage and to manage potential earthquake risks in Istanbul, building risk analyses are required. Following the analysis, the necessary precautions can be taken immediately. The building damage analysis results provide the basic data for the decision makers for the disaster prevention, mitigation and urban transformation studies. This article presents a building damage analysis for Istanbul, based on updated building data which are collected up to the year of 2013, that includes building age, number of floors and construction type for every structure that can be classified as a building. The building damage analysis was performed according to PGA and 0.2-s Sa demands by using HAZTURK software (Elnashai et al. 2008). Results from the damage analysis for Istanbul are presented for districts and sub-districts too, in order to compare with other studies.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2530-7
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • A cascading flash flood guidance system: development and application in
           Yunnan Province, China
    • Authors: Ziyue Zeng; Guoqiang Tang; Di Long; Chao Zeng; Meihong Ma; Yang Hong; Hui Xu; Jing Xu
      Pages: 2071 - 2093
      Abstract: Abstract Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, suffers from massive flash flood hazards due to its complex mountainous hydrometeorology. However, traditional flash flood forecasting approaches can hardly provide an effective and comprehensive guide. Aiming to build a multilevel guidance system of flash flood warning for Yunnan, this study develops a Cascading Flash Flood Guidance (CFFG) system, progressively from the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI) to the Flash Flood Risk Index (FFRI). First, land cover and vegetation cover data from MODIS products, the Harmonized World Soil Database soil map, and SRTM slope data are used in generating a composite FFPI map. In this process, an integrated approach of the analytic hierarchy process and the information entropy theory is used as a weighting method. Then, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 6 h and maximum 24 h amount) are added to derive FFHI. Further inclusion of GDP, population and flood prevention measures as vulnerability factors for the FFRI enabled prediction of the flash flood risk. The spatial patterns of the CFFG indices indicate that counties in east Yunnan are most susceptible to flash floods, which agrees with the distribution of observed flash flood events. Compared to other approaches, the CFFG system could be a useful prototype in mapping characteristics of China’s flash floods in a cascading manner (i.e., potential, hazard and risk) for users at different administrative levels (e.g., town, county, province and even nation).
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2535-2
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Index-based evaluation of vegetation response to meteorological drought in
           Northern China
    • Authors: Rui Li; Jing’ai Wang; Tianjie Zhao; Jiancheng Shi
      Pages: 2179 - 2193
      Abstract: Abstract The short-term relationship between drought and vegetation growth is important for drought monitoring. This paper integrated precipitation-based Effective Drought Index (EDI) and SPOT-VEGETATION 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at 10-day scale to quantify spatial pattern of short-term vegetation response to drought in Northern China. Coefficient of determination (R 2) was used to identify drought influence and temporal relationship. The paper analyzed correlations between EDI and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Anomaly (NDVIA) within 30-km radius domain at 178 stations in Northern China from 1998 to 2013. In order to validate the correlation results, we compared them with conventional growth period (May–September) scale precipitation–NDVI relationship and 0.25-degree VUA-NASA soil moisture product at 10-day basis from 2003 to 2009. We further explored EDI-NDVI correlations at 1-km vegetation pixels of 8 typical sites. The results show that (1) R 2 between 10-day EDI and average NDVIA at 30-km radius domain is significant in regions with 200–400 mm mean annual precipitation; NDVIA has a mainly 10-day time lag behind EDI; (2) R 2 at 10-day scale relationship fit Gaussian curve better than those at growth period scale; there are similar spatial patterns of both precipitation-NDVI and EDI-NDVI correlations; (3) The correlations between 0.25° remote sensing soil moisture and NDVI from 2003 to 2009 show the same 10-day time lag and a similar spatial pattern as EDI-NDVI method; (4) 1-km grassland pixels have significant R 2 and 10-day time lag in drier regions. This paper suggests EDI-NDVI correlation method is useful to identify more details of drought-vegetation relationship. The above results are expected to provide some guidance e.g., 10-day time lag in drought management in semi-arid zones.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2542-3
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • A study of characteristics of ground motion response spectra from
           earthquakes recorded in NE Himalayan region: an active plate boundary
    • Authors: Babita Sharma; Sumer Chopra; P. Chingtham; Vikas Kumar
      Pages: 2195 - 2210
      Abstract: Abstract In the present work, acceleration response spectra are determined from earthquakes which have occurred in the NE region and the effect of local geology on its shape is studied. One hundred and ninety-five strong ground motion time histories from 45 earthquakes which have occurred in the NE region having a magnitude range of 3.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.9 and a distance range of 20–600 kms are used. It is observed that the shape of the normalized acceleration response spectra is influenced by the local site conditions and regional geology. The influence of magnitude and distance on the spectra is also studied. The present study is carried out for three categories of rocks: Pre-Cambrian, Tertiary and Quaternary. It is inferred that the acceleration response spectra in the current Indian code designed for the entire country are applicable for NE region as it is within the spectral limits prescribed in Indian code. The ground motion is amplified at higher frequencies for stations located on hard rock, while for stations located on alluvium sites, it is amplified at lower frequencies. The sites located on hard rock show lowest values of spectral acceleration than the sites located on alluvium sites. The results obtained in the present study are compared with the similar results obtained in the stable continent region like Gujarat. It is found that the dominating period of response spectrum of similar rock types is found to be at higher side for NE region as compared to Gujarat region. This may be attributed towards the tectonic complexity of the NE region than the stable continent region like Gujarat.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2543-2
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
  • Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves
    • Authors: Sujata K. Mandke; A. K. Sahai
      Pages: 2211 - 2224
      Abstract: Abstract This study explores the background atmospheric conditions that led to the development of recent two sets of twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean. One set of twins formed in late December 2011 (“pair A”) and other in May 2013 (“pair B”). An extensive area of active convection prevailing over wide-equatorial region and low-level westerly wind over near-equatorial region is major precursors to the two cases of twins. Convection and accompanying westerlies slowly strengthen, and the two sets of twins tend to emerge within it. The atmospheric equatorial convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (CCER) wave played key role in the formation of the two twins’ events. Wave-enhanced equatorial convection and low-level westerly anomalies produced by the combination of CCKW and CCER wave are crucial for the development of “pair A” twins. CCKW prior to “pair B” twins produced convection and westerly anomalies over equatorial region. The equatorial westerlies are further modulated by CCER wave favoring twins of “pair B.” Moreover, convection reinforced by CCER wave in OLR aided occurrence of Northern Hemispheric cyclone of “pair A” and Southern Hemispheric cyclone of “pair B.” While the CCKW and CCER wave appear to be associated with the formation of the two twin cyclone cases, more thorough understanding of the mechanisms involved needs considerable attention in forthcoming research.
      PubDate: 2016-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2546-z
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 3 (2016)
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