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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.465]   [H-I: 45]   [138 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2335 journals]
  • Flood-prone area delimitation using UAV technology, in the areas
           hard-to-reach for classic aircrafts: case study in the north-east of
           Apuseni Mountains, Transylvania
    • Abstract: Abstract In the delimitation of flood-prone areas, particularly in areas that are difficult to access using traditional flight equipment, the most critical problem is the generation of a high-quality DEM of the major and minor riverbed, in order to obtain several hydraulic parameters (e.g., the surface of the drainage section, average water velocity) with equivalent accuracy. The chosen area for the case study represents one with the greatest history of hydrological risk factors in the Someşul Mic basin, given the extreme previous hydrological events that have taken place (e.g., in the year 1995) as well as the limited capacity of the river for upstream river flow, and to handle the volume of the flash floods. In this study, the use of UAV technology coupled with Leica MultiStation for validation made it possible to achieve this performance. Another advantage was the existence of the hydrometric station situated in the middle of the study area, the information from which was used for statistics, calibration of the measurements and validation of the results obtained (roughness of the riverbed, the debit with an overflow possibility). The hydraulic calculations performed on the 11 transverse profiles, conducted using the GIS terrain model, led to the high accuracy defining of the flood-prone areas corresponding to the flows in the major riverbed with probabilities of 1 and 5 %. Also highlighted on the 2D and 3D images were several civilian areas at risk in the case of extreme hydrological events, related to maximum flow.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Facing a wildfire: What did we learn about individual and community
    • Abstract: Abstract Resilience has become a significant concept to help understand the coping processes after adversity experienced by communities. This article reports on the perspectives of individual resilience by community stakeholders (n = 20) and parents (n = 19) who experienced a devastating wildfire. The findings show the links between individual and community resilience through our key themes—personality, physical environment, economy, attachment to place and social interactions—influenced the development of community resilience. Further exploration to determine the differences in the significance of these individual resilience characteristics and the ways in which they help individuals and communities deal with adversity is warranted. Finally, future research studies that illustrate an integrated examination of both individual and community resilience are warranted in order to more fully understand this concept.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • The technological progress route alternative of carbon productivity
           promotion in China’s industrial sector
    • Abstract: Abstract Under the background of low-carbon economy, carbon productivity is a core criterion of the quality of economy growth. Based on panel data released from 1998 to 2012, carbon productivity in industrial sector is measured by the data envelopment analysis method based on directional distance function, under total factor productivity framework. For technological progress is an important impetus of productivity improvements, we do an analysis of technological progress route alternative issue about carbon productivity promotion in China’s industrial sector. Our main findings are as follows. Firstly, the carbon productivity, which is estimated under the research framework of total factor productivity, is significantly lower than the single element carbon productivity. Secondly, the major representation of technological progress in China’s industrial sector lies in capitalized embodied progress. Finally, capitalized embodied technological progress has a tremendous impact on carbon productivity. Looking ahead, the Chinese government should adopt measures to increase the amount of imported advanced equipment and improve domestic manufacturing level of equipment.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • F. Rudolf-Miklau, S. Sauermoser, and A. I. Mears (eds): The technical
           avalanche protection handbook
    • PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • The 2015 Nepal M 8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M
            ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China
    • Abstract: Abstract According to the statistical analysis, a total of 25 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China and neighborhood from 1300 to 2015. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has shown an obvious commensurability and self-organized orderliness. It should be remarked especially that the Nepal great earthquakes have a significant relationship with the M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China. Within such a short 100 years from 1902 to 2001, three ordered pairs of M ≥ 8 earthquakes took place in West China: 1902–1906, 1927–1931, and 1997–2001, each pair of two earthquakes had a time interval of 4 years, which is a quite unique and rare example in the earthquake history of China and the whole world. Based on the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, this paper focuses on the summary of the ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes, supplements new information of three M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Nepal: M8 in 1833, M8.1 in 1934, and M8.1 in 2015, hence constructs and further optimizes the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes to make prediction research. The results show that the occurrence of the 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake indicates the beginning of another M ≥ 8 earthquake cycle in West China. The great or strong earthquakes will probably happen in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau area and gradually migrate from the south to the north for decades. A new ordered pair of M ≥ 8 earthquakes will probably occur around 2022 and 2026 in West China, as well as a single event around 2029.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation regimes in the Huai River basin,
           China, and possible relations with ENSO events
    • Abstract: Abstract Under the influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Oscillation Index events, changes in precipitation intensity and duration thereon in both space and time in the Huai River basin, China, are investigated. Different behaviors of precipitation intensity and duration during different ENSO episodes were also analyzed, and significance of these changes was evaluated using Mann–Whitney U test method. Results of this study indicate that: (1) the north Huai River basin is dominated by decreasing precipitation, specifically in the Yi-Shu-Si River basin, and increasing precipitation in the south Huai River basin. Increasing number of annual maximum consecutive dry days, decreasing number of annual maximum consecutive wet days (MCD) and decreasing precipitation amount of annual maximum consecutive wet days (MCP) indicate a drying tendency in the northern parts of the Huai River basin, implying intensifying droughts. However, a wetting tendency is observed in the southeast parts of the Huai River basin as a result of increasing annual total precipitation amount and increasing MCD and MCP; (2) the influence of Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW), Central Pacific Warming (CPW) and Eastern Pacific Cooling (EPC) on heavy precipitation and rainstorms is evident. There is more significant influence of EPC on rainstorms. EPW and CPW cause a higher risk of flooding in the south Huai River basin, whereas EPC causes a higher risk of flooding in the north Huai River basin; (3) longer-lasting precipitation events are observed to be decreasing during the EPC and CPW periods, whereas occurrences of longer-lasting precipitation events are found to be increasing during the EPW period. This study is of practical value in planning and management of agricultural irrigation and water resources and helps understand the influence of ENSO events on precipitation regimes in the Huai River basin, China.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Investigation of Uttarakhand (India) disaster-2013 using weather research
           and forecasting model
    • Abstract: Abstract A natural disaster in the form of severe flash floods due to extreme precipitation occurred at Kedarnath (Uttarakhand), India, on 16–17 June 2013 and is being considered as one of the worst disasters in India (Das in J Geol Soc India 82:201, 2013). The catastrophe in the form of flash flood and associated debris flow caused major devastation leading to a high death toll of locals and visiting pilgrims. The very early migration of monsoon trough (MT) towards northern India and its interaction with an incoming western disturbance (WD) formed a transient cloud system that led to extreme precipitation. Using WRF model with triple-nested domain for simulation at finer resolutions, this high-intensity precipitating event is analysed. Interaction of the MT with WD over the foothills of the Himalayas usually causes a break period in the Indian monsoon, but the interaction of MT and WD during this storm event showed different characteristics. Such an association of WD with the MT has been termed as pulsatory extension of the monsoon (PEM) towards Himalayas (Pisharoty and Desai in Indian J Meteorol Geophys 7:333–338, 1956; Mooley in Indian J Meteorol Hydrol Geophys 8:253–260, 1957). The interaction of the WD with the MT exactly over the Uttarakhand region forms an occluded discontinuity between the mid to upper-tropospheric WD frontal system (colder) and the lower-troposphere MT (warm and humid). The precursor of this front caused formation of steep temperature gradient over the Indian region that led to the early advance of MT towards Himalayas. Formation of this strong front develops augmented convective instability, which is further enhanced by orographic lifting, leading to the configuration of this large organized storm causing extreme precipitation over a large spatial region.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Hazard assessment of the formation and failure of the Sunkoshi landslide
           dam in Nepal
    • Abstract: Abstract A massive landslide occurred at Jure village of Nepal on August 2, 2014. The landslide mass blocked the Sunkoshi River and created a landslide dam. Thirty-seven days after the formation, the Sunkoshi landslide dam breached on September 7, 2014. In this study, flood hazards due to the formation and failure of the Sunkoshi landslide dam were analyzed. Flood inundation due to impounded water in the upstream river valley of the dam was also analyzed. The outburst discharge from the dam breach on September 7, 2014 and flood characteristics along the downstream river valley were computed by using an erosion-based dam breach and flow model. Flood inundation maps were prepared by using the results obtained from the numerical simulations and geographical information system tools. The peak flow discharge of the Sunkoshi landslide dam outburst at the dam outlet was found to be 6436 m3/s, and the estimated time of the dam breach was found to be about 26 min. The estimated volume of water released from the impounded water in the upstream river valley of the dam was approximately 4.5 million m3. The calculated peak flow velocity and maximum flow depth along the river ranged mostly from 3 to 11 m/s and from 4 to 10 m, respectively. The dam breach had considerable impact on areas more than 30 km downstream from the dam.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • District-wise multi-hazard zoning of Bangladesh
    • Abstract: Abstract Bangladesh is stated as one of the most natural disaster-prone countries in the world. The geographical setting of the country makes it vulnerable to natural hazards. Among different disasters in Bangladesh, tornado, flood, earthquake, and cyclone are major hazards according to the historical occurrences and their potential damages. For proper disaster management, recognition of the existence of the hazards and identification of the vulnerable areas are first important tasks. Thus, the prime objective of this study was to prepare a district-wise multi-hazard zoning map of Bangladesh. For the purpose, firstly a complete district-wise database of four disasters in Bangladesh was prepared. Comparing scenarios of these hazards in Bangladesh and their corresponding scales all over the world, suitable intensity scales and their corresponding damage risk levels were proposed. For calculation of district-wise individual hazard scores, hazard factors and weighting factors for particular hazards were defined based on the organized district-wise historical disaster database of Bangladesh through consultation with experts from relative fields. After that, district-wise individual and multi-hazard scores were calculated. Then, the districts of Bangladesh were subdivided into three zones based on calculated multi-hazard scores. Finally, district-wise multi-hazard zoning map of Bangladesh was prepared. The research findings are crucial and important for policy-makers for decision-making regarding disaster management strategies, i.e. planning for disaster prevention, mitigation, and preparedness actions.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Spectral wave climatology off Ratnagiri, northeast Arabian Sea
    • Abstract: Abstract Wave spectra of the measured data at 13 m water depth off Ratnagiri using the Datawell Directional waverider buoy from March 2010 to November 2014 are used to study the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual variations in the wave spectral characteristics. Wave data are also analyzed to identify them as single-peaked or multi-peaked spectra. Single-peaked spectra are then identified as belonging to wind-seas or swells. The monthly averaged wave spectrum indicates that the wave spectra are mainly single-peaked during June to August with peak frequency distributed around 0.08 Hz (peak wave period ~12.5 s) and double-peaked during the remaining period, except in September. During January to May and from October to December, the swell peak is around 0.07 Hz. The wind-sea peak during the non-monsoon period is mainly at 0.2 Hz except during March and April. During March and April, due to the strong local winds and weak swells, the wind-sea peak shifted to higher frequencies (~0.3 Hz). The monthly averaged spectrum is wind-sea dominated during January to March and swell dominated during rest of the year. The inter-annual variations in the monthly average wave spectrum are high during February, May and September to November. The inter-annual variations in the direction of swell are marginal (<10°), whereas significant variations in wind-sea are observed during June to November. Parameters of the JONSWAP and Donelan model spectra are estimated for the corresponding sea-state by using a least square error method.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability indices for cyclones in
           the eastern coastal states of India
    • Abstract: Abstract Numerous disasters over the past several years have revealed the differential impacts due to social structure, economic conditions and level of infrastructure. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from potential cyclones. In this regard, a method is proposed for quantifying the socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability to potential cyclone in the districts of the eastern coastal states. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India (2011) at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using factor analysis, specifically principal component analysis that represents the socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability to potential cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores have been mapped for spatial analysis using Jenk’s natural break technique. Utilizing socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability indices, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated, which are expected to face substantial amount of challenges in coping with cyclones. The highly vulnerable districts require strategies to address the various aspects of socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability. The indices and maps produced in this paper could not only be incorporated for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Effect of tsunamis from Makran Subduction Zone and its impact on the
           Androth Island of Lakshadweep
    • Abstract: Abstract The 27th November 1945 tsunami generated due to an earthquake of magnitude of 8.1 ( \(M_{w}\) ) in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is one of the most devastating tsunami in the Arabian sea. One of the prominent feature in the Arabian sea about 1700 km from the MSZ is the Lakshadweep Islands. Tsunamis generated in the MSZ would travel into the Arabian sea and would cause damage along the west coast of India and Lakshadweep Islands. In this paper Mathematical Simulation of the tsunami generation from this zone, its propagation into the Arabian sea and its impact on the Androth Island of Lakshadweep is studied using a Mathematical Model. The possible arrival time and the wave heights around different locations of the selected island have been quantified. Three different scenarios by changing fault parameters and manning coefficients are computed and the differences in the arrival time and tsunami wave amplitude in each case is observed. Results obtained is discussed and compared with the available tabulated information in literature.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Soil erosion and degradation in a rapidly expanding industrial area of
           Eastern Mediterranean basin (Thriasio plain, Greece)
    • Abstract: Abstract This study investigates soil erosion in a rapidly expanding industrial region of Eastern Mediterranean basin (Thriasio plain, Greece), controlling how geomorphology, topography, soil drainage and vegetation cover shape the local erosivity rate. Our results show that Thriasio plain is characterized by medium–low classes of soil vulnerability in the actual environmental conditions. However, in an ‘extreme conditions’ scenario, areas with sharp slope, a branched hydrographical network and low vegetation cover are classified at high vulnerability to soil erosion. A field study has been implemented considering extreme natural conditions (January 2004) driven by rapid snow melting determining an exceptionally high volume of water flooding down to the sea through a seasonal stream. This episode was considered a ‘natural experiment’ when assessing extreme soil erosion conditions. Based on theoretical calculations and field measurements, our results confirm the estimated value of soil erosion under the ‘extreme conditions’ scenario illustrated above.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Delineation of spatio-temporal changes of shoreline and geomorphological
    • Abstract: Abstract Odisha coast is a dynamic region wherein both natural and anthropogenic processes affecting the shape and position of the shoreline vis-à-vis the coastal processes are prevalent in this region. Geomorphology such as lagoons, tidal flats, mangrove swamps and shoreline is a rapidly changing phenomenon along this coast mainly due to tides, waves, oceanic currents and storm surges. Keeping in view of the above, the present study mainly focused on decadal changes of shoreline and land cover changes, and delineation of geomorphological units along the Odisha coast using geospatial technologies for the period 1990–2009. Spatio-temporal analysis of remote sensing data indicated notable shoreline changes at cyclone land fall locations along the Odisha coast, wherein erosion (loss) and accretion (gain) rates were observed to be high at Paradeep and Kendrapada. During the study period, the rate of accretion was observed to be higher during 1999–2009 compared to 1990–1999. Coastal geomorphology landforms distributions indicate that the swale complex, older and younger coastal plains, tidal flats and mangrove swamp are the dominant features. Long-term land cover analysis indicated that the vegetation cover loss happened in the high vegetated areas during the period 1990–1999 and regeneration during the period 1999–2009.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Improving flood damage assessment models in Italy
    • Abstract: Abstract Flood damage assessments are often based on stage-damage curve (SDC) models that estimate economic damage as a function of flood characteristics (typically flood depths) and land use. SDCs are developed through a site-specific analysis, but are rarely adjusted to economic circumstances in areas to which they are applied. In Italy, assessments confide in SDC models developed elsewhere, even if empirical damage reports are collected after every major flood event. In this paper, we have tested, adapted and extended an up-to-date SDC model using flood records from Northern Italy. The model calibration is underpinned by empirical data from compensation records. Our analysis takes into account both damage to physical assets and losses due to foregone production, the latter being measured amidst the spatially distributed gross added value.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • The study of integrating geographic information with multi-objective
           decision making on allocating the appropriate refuge shelters: using
           Kengting National Park as an example
    • Abstract: Abstract Kengting National Park, located in southern Taiwan and surrounded by the sea on three sides, is the only national park that covers both land and sea. The summer is 9 months long, and its yearly average temperature is 24.5 °C, which is very suitable for many different water activities. There were 7 million visitors in 2013, a sign of booming tourism. Unfortunately, the park has experienced as many as 2.4 typhoons yearly, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau statistics. In addition, its geography is also unique, with steep hillsides and fragile geology. It is very close to the Hengchun fault, the Bashi Channel, and a nuclear power plant. This tourist site has a very high potential for complex disasters. There is only one main road. If a strong earthquake occurred, it would easily result in traffic disruption. Based on these concerns, this research studied the allocation of current evacuation/refuge shelters and their service areas to determine whether these shelters are sufficient for overall disaster demands, including the number of people each evacuation/refuge shelter can accommodate, service area, and space allocation. The study integrated a multi-decision making model with a Geographic Information System to establish the most optimal allocation of disaster evacuation/refuge shelters for disaster prevention in Kengting National Park.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow after Wenchuan
           earthquake in Gaochuan River watershed, Southwest China
    • Abstract: Abstract Wenchuan earthquake occurred 7 years ago, and more than 100 landslides and rock avalanches were triggered by the earthquake in Gaochuan river watershed, in Southwest China, including the Daguangbao landslide, which is the largest one triggered by Wenchuan earthquake, having a volume around 1.15 billion m3. The massive landslide deposits provided uncountable material source for debris flow in the study area, resulting in 25 debris flow events occurred in the past 6 years (2009–2014). The purpose of this paper is to analyze the variability in the rainfall threshold for debris flow after the earthquake in the study area. Results suggest that the critical rainfall threshold is closely related to the rainfall intensity (I) and the antecedent accumulated precipitation (P). There was a sudden drop of the rainfall threshold when the earthquake happened. During the 6 years, the rainfall threshold value kept increasing gradually in a linear trend. However, it is now still much lower than the original rainfall threshold prior to the earthquake. The threshold is expected to reach the original level around 2022 based on the analysis of existing data. Our study indicates that the increase of rainfall threshold is related to the decrease of sediments. And there are still lots of loose deposits in the gullies. Thus, the debris flow can still happen in a high possibility in the next few years.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Adapting agriculture to the drought hazard in rural China: household
           strategies and determinants
    • Abstract: Abstract This study is to identify the major methods used by local farmers to adapt to the drought hazard and to examine factors influencing their decisions to adapt in Yongqiao District, China. A random sampling technique was used to select 200 households in Yongqiao, while descriptive statistics and binary logit models were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results show that most farmers in the study area were aware of climate change. They were taking measures to protect their livelihoods against perceived change in climate. Results indicate that factors explaining farmers’ adaptation choices include gender, the level of education, farming experience, farm size, household income, and perceptions of climate change impacts. The findings of this study can help decision-makers to design appropriate adaptation policies to cope with and adapt in drought situation.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Establishing rainfall frequency contour lines as thresholds for
           rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 1980–2005
    • Abstract: Abstract In this paper, a method to derive rainfall thresholds based on the relationship between daily and the antecedent rainfall up to 6 days prior to landslide occurrence is proposed for the analysis of 134 landslide days in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, during the years 1980–2005. Based on a simple graphical procedure, rainfall frequency contour lines have been drawn in the daily versus antecedent rainfall plots to connect rainfall combinations relatively having the same frequency of occurrence. A two-bound threshold has been established: Below the lower bound, rainfall events are so frequent that any landslide day may only occur due to a significant anthropogenic disturbance, while, above the upper bound, rainfall alone is capable of inducing landslide days. Contour lines originating at the same daily rainfall value in all plots were then grouped together to form a threshold set, for which the number of well-predicted landslide days and false alarms was determined. It has been determined that 16 and 84 landslide days have fallen below the lower bound and above the upper bound, respectively. In addition, this method has been proven effective in the distinction between days with and without landslides, since it has led to a 23 % reduction in the number of false alarms per well-predicted landslide day when compared to a previously established threshold line for Tegucigalpa.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
  • Application of run-off model as a contribution to the torrential flood
           risk management in Topčiderska Reka watershed, Serbia
    • Abstract: Abstract This paper deals with developing of hydrological flow model for the torrential watershed of the Topčiderska River, located in the Belgrade macro-region, in which torrential flood events have had destructive human and material consequences. The aim of the paper was to show that model, developed by hydrological software SHETRAN, is useful tool enabling the simulation of physical properties and hydrological processes in watersheds, having a significant place in decision support system within the torrential flood risk management. Results achievement was enabled through three phases: (1) Sensitivity analysis showed that the closest hydrograph to registered hydrograph is modelled with averaged values of parameters; (2) model calibration was done by calibration of four main parameters with significant influence on flow component (hydraulic conductivity of soil and rock, Strickler roughness coefficient for overland and river network flow) in case of the torrential flood event from 10th July 1999; and (3) model verification was done by input of calibrated values in case of two another torrential flood events (1996, 1999). Statistical analysis of correspondence of modelled and registered discharges showed that due to correlation coefficient (0.95–0.98) and determination coefficient (0.90–0.96) as well as probability of error according to F test, good results are achieved. Considering obtained results, developed model should be a part of torrential flood risk management in watershed of Topčiderska River.
      PubDate: 2016-07-01
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Heriot-Watt University
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