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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [219 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2353 journals]
  • The assessment of traffic accident risk based on grey relational analysis
           and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
    • Authors: Yaolong Liu; Xiaoli Huang; Jin Duan; Huaming Zhang
      Pages: 1409 - 1422
      Abstract: Abstract The traffic accident risk includes three aspects, traffic accident probability, traffic accident severity, and traffic accident trend respectively. In this paper, nine indicators are selected to evaluate the traffic accident risk. The grey relational analysis method was used to determine the weights, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the risk. These methods were applied to assess the comprehensive risk of traffic accident in 31 provinces in China. The results show that the average value of traffic accident risk is 55.17. Nine provinces which are located in the northwest area and southeast area belong to the high-risk level. The medium-risk areas are widely distributed in the central, northeast, and southwest regions. The low-risk areas are Jilin, Neimenggu, Guizhou, and Beijing. The results have great significance for the measurement and management of regional traffic accident risk.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2923-2
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • The smoke is rising but where is the fire' Exploring effective online
           map design for wildfire warnings
    • Authors: Yinghui Cao; Bryan J. Boruff; Ilona M. McNeill
      Pages: 1473 - 1501
      Abstract: Abstract The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals’ decision-making, and (2) the optimal interface design for ensuring usability and ease of information access. A map-based warning tool was prototyped in the Australian context, followed by a usability and effectiveness evaluation through individual interviews and verbal protocol analysis to assess participants’ interaction with the mapping interface and information in response to the simulated warning scenario. The results demonstrated variations in participants’ approaches to wildfire warning response, revealing varied information needs. Specifically, most participants relied on their own assessment of the prospective threat, requiring specific wildfire-related information before eliciting a response. In contrast, the decision of a minority of the participants was motivated by response guidance from agencies, and accurate wildfire information was less important for their response. Imperative information for both types of residents therefore needs to be highlighted in a map-based warning tool to cater to a wide audience. Furthermore, a number of heuristics were identified for designing effective interactive functions to facilitate the control of, and access to, the various maps and textual information presented on the map-based warning interface.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2929-9
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Optimal scheduling of household appliances for smart home energy
           management considering demand response
    • Authors: Xinhui Lu; Kaile Zhou; Felix T. S. Chan; Shanlin Yang
      Pages: 1639 - 1653
      Abstract: Abstract As an important part of demand-side management, residential demand response (DR) can not only reduce consumer’s electricity costs, but also improve the stability of power system operation. In this regard, this paper proposes an optimal scheduling model of household appliances for smart home energy management considering DR. The model includes electricity cost, incentive and inconvenience of consumers under time-of-use (TOU) electricity price. Further, this paper discusses the influence of inconvenience weighting factor on total costs. At the same time, the influence of incentive on optimization results is also analyzed. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed model, which can reduce 34.71% of consumer’s total costs. It also illustrates that the total costs will be raised with the increase in inconvenience weighting factor. Thus, consumers will choose whether to participate in DR programs according to their preferences. Moreover, the result demonstrates that incentives are conducive to shifting load and reducing the consumer’s total energy costs. The presented study provides new insight for the applications of residential DR.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2937-9
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Application of radar wind profiler data in analyzing the process of
           torrential rains in Urumqi Xinjiang, China
    • Authors: Minzhong Wang; Quan Ren; Yan Geng; Yanhong Chai
      Pages: 1677 - 1690
      Abstract: Abstract To deeply understand the micro-/mesoscale dynamic characteristics of the torrential rain process in Urumqi and improve the levels of torrential rain monitoring, forecasting and early warning, this paper analyzed the wind profile features and related scientific problems of three typical torrential rain events seen in 2013–2015 in this region. The research results suggested that: (1) Radar wind profiler can record in detail the movement condition of the atmosphere during the process of torrential rains. Carrying out detailed analyses on the wind profile data is conductive to the improvement in monitoring, forecasting and warning to torrential rain event at a single observation station. (2) When Urumqi experiences heavy rain weather, noticeable wind shear is usually observed above the observation station. In the upper air, it is southwest wind, while in the lower air it is northwest wind, which is the typical wind profile pattern for heavy rain events in the Urumqi region. (3) Obvious northwest low-level jet stream is found to go together with precipitation, and the jet is positively correlated with precipitation intensity. The velocity of low-level jet stream greatly impacts the amount and intensity of precipitation. (4) The rainstorm weather phenomena are clearly presented by the time–height chart of radar reflectivity factors. The high reflectivity values correspond positively to the height range of cloud–rain particles as well as the duration and intensity of precipitation, so it can be used as a reference index of precipitation monitoring and early warning. In a word, this research deepens on the recognition to the micro-/mesoscale weather systems during the process of heavy rains in Urumqi. Moreover, it would contribute to the application improvement of wind profiler data in analyzing the heavy rainfalls in this region.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2940-1
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Types and characteristics of slow-moving slope geo-hazards recognized by
           TS-InSAR along Xianshuihe active fault in the eastern Tibet Plateau
    • Authors: Xin Yao; Lingjing Li; Yongshuang Zhang; Zhenkai Zhou; Xinghong Liu
      Pages: 1727 - 1740
      Abstract: Abstract Displacement for a long time is an important clue to recognize slow-moving slope geo-hazards (SMSGH). And active fault zones in Tibet Plateau are usually the regions developing serious SMSGHs because of rugged terrain, strong tectonic movement, frequent earthquakes and cracked rock masses, etc. Taking the persistent active Xianshuihe Fault (XSF) zone in the eastern Tibet Plateau as study area, this paper carries out time series InSAR observation using 18 periods of L-band ALOS/PALSAR datasets acquired from December, 2006 to September, 2010, gain millimetric-scale ground velocity. Furthermore, combining InSAR velocity with works of field investigation, optical remote sensing interpretation and geological setting analysis, we recognize 394 SMSGHs and gain some understanding of SMSGHs in types, deformation and spatial distribution. Firstly, creep landslide, debris flow and slow-moving moraine are three main types of SMSGH. Secondly, most paleo-landslides, co-seismic landslides and cracked unstable slopes distribute alone the northern section of XSF, and the majority of landslides intersecting with XSF is obviously movable and others are stable or of smaller movement. Thirdly, in the areas of debris flow source, the slow and disperse deformation commonly develop, which can be taken as the clue to identify debris flow; and two types of debris flow sources, “earth-forest” and “loose deposition,” are found. Finally, moraine in hanging glacier valley above 4200 m a.s.l. exists extensively, with huge body and fast dislocation, which is the majority surface erosion type nowadays in this uplifting plateau. The study results also indicate that the combination of InSAR displacement and geological setting analysis can recognize SMSGHs efficiently and effectively, being suitable for mountainous and inaccessible area as this study.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2943-y
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Selection of representative shear modulus reduction and damping curves for
           rock, gravel and sand sites from the KiK-Net downhole array
    • Authors: P. Anbazhagan; Athul Prabhakaran; H. Madhura; Sayed S. R. Moustafa; Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi
      Pages: 1741 - 1768
      Abstract: Abstract Representative computation of ground response parameters requires accurate information about nonlinear dynamic behavior of the soil column, commonly incorporated in site response analysis through shear modulus reduction and damping curves which are functions of the strain level. Most site response studies are carried out by considering a set of existing shear modulus and damping curves, without knowing its suitability for the in situ soil type. In this study, an attempt has been made to identify suitable shear modulus and damping curves for soil grouped into different classes viz. sand, gravel and rock. Soil profiles of sites having surface and bedrock motion recordings are selected from the KiK-Net downhole array database and equivalent linear and total stress nonlinear site response analysis has been carried out by varying the shear modulus and damping curves for different sites. Estimated surface response spectra for each set of shear modulus and damping curves are compared with the observed response spectra at each site, and a detailed analysis is made to find out which set of curves gives a best match with the recorded data. Based on this study, representative property curves for rock, gravel and sand are suggested, which could be used for further site response studies in the region. This study shows that only a set of shear modulus and damping curves ensure a compatible spectrum with the recorded data from the KiK-Net downhole array sites, among the many available shear modulus and damping curves in the literature.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2944-x
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Observational perspective of SST changes during life cycle of tropical
           cyclones over Bay of Bengal
    • Authors: Praveen Kumar Pothapakula; Krishna K. Osuri; Sujata Pattanayak; U. C. Mohanty; Sourav Sil; Raghu Nadimpalli
      Pages: 1769 - 1787
      Abstract: Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) plays a significant role in tropical cyclone (TC) formation and intensity evolution, while at the same time, TC induces SST changes during its life cycle. This work deals with the TC-induced SST changes associated with 21 TCs of Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 2006–2013. The SST analyses obtained from National Centre for Oceanic Information Services (INCOIS-SST) and real-time global SST (RTG-SST) are used along with buoy observations. Initial analyses reveal that INCOIS-SST is consistently better than RTG-SST with a good correlation and least root-mean-square error for both post- and pre-monsoon seasons. Overall results demonstrated that mean SST cooling decreases with increased translation speed of TCs within a radius of 50, 100 and 200 km from its centre. Further, a maximum SST cooling of ~2 and ~1.8 °C is noticed in pre- and post-monsoon, respectively, within the radial distance of 50–100 km from centre for slow-moving TCs, 1.2 and 1.0 °C for moderate and 0.9 and 0.7 °C for fast-moving TCs. The TCs formed over the southern BoB have a greater SST cooling up to 200 km radial distance followed by those formed over central and northern BoB in pre- and post-monsoon; however, the magnitudes of cooling in pre-monsoon seasons are greater than post-monsoon season. The minimum cooling over northern BoB may be attributed to the strong haline stratification as compared to the central and southern BoB during both seasons. However, there is a higher magnitude of stratification in post- compared to pre-monsoon, which might play a significant role in lesser SST cooling in post-monsoon season compared to pre-monsoon season.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2945-9
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Effects of land use/cover change on regional land surface temperatures:
           severe warming from drying Toshka lakes, the Western Desert of Egypt
    • Authors: Mohamed E. Hereher
      Pages: 1789 - 1803
      Abstract: Abstract Toshka depression in the Western Desert of Egypt witnessed big floods in late 1990s from the Nile River behind the High Dam, where many lakes were formed. By the year 2003, the lakes attained their maximum spatial extent. Concurrently, a huge agricultural project was designed to reshape the landscape of the Western Desert and to construct new communities outside the Nile Valley. Unfortunately, after 2003 the lakes started drying and by 2015 most of these lakes were disappeared with symptoms of soil degradation by salt crusting. The main objective of this study was to address the change in land surface temperatures (LST) resulted from the emergence and disappearance of these lakes as the main land use/land cover (LULC) change in the region. The study was performed using remote sensing and GIS. LST data were extracted using 299 satellite images acquired from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST product for the period between 2003 and 2015. Results point out to the occurrence of a severe heat island caused by soil degradation due to wetting and drying of desert soils. The mean LST increased from 37.7 °C in 2003 to 42.11 °C in 2015. The primary outcome of this study is that human interference with the hydrologic setting of this hot desert is the reason for interrupting the land energy fluxes and budget. There are undoubtedly physical, ecological and social impacts of this regional warming.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2946-8
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Assessment of the plume dispersion due to chemical attack on April 4,
           2017, in Syria
    • Authors: Kiran Bhaganagar; Sudheer R. Bhimireddy
      Pages: 1893 - 1901
      Abstract: Abstract A numerical investigation has been performed using Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine the role of atmospheric factors that influenced the dispersion of the chemical plume released on the fateful date of April 4, 2017, at 6.30 a.m. in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in northwestern region of Syria. The plume has been approximated as an inert tracer and the effect of meteorological and topographical conditions on the plume dispersion has been studied. The results have shown that the released plume formed a thin layer up to 100 m above the surface known a “fumigation plume”. The plume spreads radially, undiluted to distance of 7.9 and 19.3 km at 1 and 2 h, respectively, after the initial release. Due to change to convective atmospheric stability conditions, the turbulence convective eddies dilutes the plume. The atmospheric stability conditions in the next 2 h were critical in dispersing the plume. The study motivates the importance of estimating short-term transport of the plume in health-, safety- and evacuation-management.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2936-x
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 3 (2017)
  • Comparison of TRMM-based flood indices for Gaziantep, Turkey
    • Authors: Senayi Dönmez; Ahmet Emre Tekeli
      Pages: 821 - 834
      Abstract: Abstract Floods are the most common natural disasters threatening the welfare of humanity. Gaziantep, a city located in a semi-arid region of Turkey, is occasionally flooded, and in May 2014, a flood not only caused property damage, but also resulted in the death of a lady who became trapped in flood waters. The fatality and property damage of flash floods arise from the limited response time for remediation. Despite improvements in numerical weather predictions, forecasting flash floods is not easy. Due to its frequent observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time (RT) 3B42RT data are tested for Gaziantep flood predictions in this study. During TRMM era, six floods occurred in Gaziantep. Three-hourly 3B42RT data covering the 2000- to 2014-year period indicated high rain rates during months in which floods were observed. Also daily variation of rainfall was well represented. High-intensity rain (HIR), cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and Gaziantep Flood Index (GAFI) indices are developed for flood characterization. HIR, calculated as 10 mm/h, detected October and December of 2010 floods. CDFs with 99, 98.5, 95 and 91.3% indicated 4 floods occurred in August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010, respectively. GAFI was able to detect 4 out of 6 occurrences (August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010) as values ranging from 1 to 2.63 are selected for monthly precipitation. In the missed occurrence, 3B42RT did not indicate any rainfall. Although only rain rates are used in flood characterization, the results are promising, and the simplicity of the methodology favors its usage. Also, methodology can easily be implemented to TRMM following missions such as Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2892-5
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • Environmental impact of Gümüşhane City, Turkey, waste area in terms of
           heavy metal pollution
    • Authors: Alaaddin Vural; Ali Gundogdu; Ibrahim Akpinar; Cemalettin Baltaci
      Pages: 867 - 890
      Abstract: Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the occurrence of a heavy metal contamination in a solid waste site of Gümüşhane City, Turkey, to examine the dimensions of the risk of contamination, and to present suggestions for possible solutions. For this purpose, heavy metal contents of soil and leachate samples taken from a Gümüşhane waste site were determined by a new method, microwave plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (MP-AES). When the obtained results are compared with background and control values, it can be seen that the region carries contamination risks, especially in terms of heavy metals such as Zn, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, and Co. To examine the environmental effects of the landfill area in more detail, geodeposition index (I geo), enrichment factor (EF), contamination index (PI), and combined contamination index (IPI) parameters are used. In addition, the samples taken from an area supposed to be free of pollution risk were also analyzed as control samples, and the obtained data were statistically compared with the results of the waste area. It is determined that the results of landfill waste site are dissimilar to those of comparison samples in terms of investigated metals, and that they contained higher values in general.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2896-1
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • Psychological sequels of flood on residents of southeast Caspian region
    • Authors: Hesam Seyedin; Reza HabibiSaravi; Nasrin sayfouri; Vahid Hoseini Djenab; Fariba Ghasemi Hamedani
      Pages: 965 - 975
      Abstract: Abstract Flood is the most common disaster in the world and has acute or chronic health consequences including psychological sequels. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is one of the main consequences. This study aimed to explore the psychological impacts (PTSD) in two flooded cities of Mazandaran Province, Neka and Behshahr, in the southeastern Caspian region that experienced flooding in 2012. A cross-sectional community-based study was performed on randomly selected samples of 400 individuals using GIS-based sampling from 139931 residents of the two flooded cities. The PTSS-10 questionnaire was used for data collection. The results showed that the overall stress disorder mean score among the participants was 2.59 out of 6. PTSD prevalence in the affected population was 64%. It was also found that stress scores significantly increased in younger people, male gender, the divorced, the widows or the widowers, and those who lost their properties (p < 0.05). Study findings showed that flood is a considerable stressor which develops PTSD. This finding should be taken into account in all four phases of disaster management cycle, and subsequently, specialized post-disaster mental health services must be provided for the afflicted population.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2926-z
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • Using grey Holt–Winters model to predict the air quality index for
           cities in China
    • Authors: Lifeng Wu; Xiaohui Gao; Yanli Xiao; Sifeng Liu; Yingjie Yang
      Pages: 1003 - 1012
      Abstract: Abstract The randomness, non-stationarity and irregularity of air quality index series bring the difficulty of air quality index forecasting. To enhance forecast accuracy, a novel model combining grey accumulated generating technique and Holt–Winters method is developed for air quality index forecasting in this paper. The grey accumulated generating technique is utilized to handle non-stationarity of random and irregular data series and Holt–Winters method is employed to deal with the seasonal effects. To verify and validate the proposed model, two monthly air quality index series from January in 2014 to December in 2016 collected from Shijiazhuang and Handan in China are taken as the test cases. The experimental results show that the proposed model is remarkably superior to conventional Holt–Winters method for its higher forecast accuracy.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2901-8
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • Using a new decoupling indicator (ZM decoupling indicator) to study the
           relationship between the economic growth and energy consumption in China
    • Authors: Yan Song; Ming Zhang
      Pages: 1013 - 1022
      Abstract: Abstract The decoupling analysis has become an important tool to explore whether an economy is becoming less dependent on energy resources. Based on the LMDI (Log-Mean Divisia Index) method, this paper defines a new decoupling indicator (ZM decoupling indicator), which depicts the relationship between energy saving influence factors and energy driving influence factors. Then, the ZM decoupling indicator is utilized to explore the state of decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption in China. The main results are as follows: (1) The gap of economic structure between the secondary industry and tertiary industry gradually narrowed during the study period 1991–2012. (2) The economic growth effect ( \(\Delta E_{\text{g}}^{t}\) ) was the critical factor in the growth of the final energy consumption in China. However, the energy intensity effect ( \(\Delta E_{\text{ei}}^{t}\) ) played an important role in decreasing the final energy consumption. (3) Based on the definition of ZM decoupling indicator, only four decoupling statuses occurred in China over the study period: weak decoupling, expansive coupling, strong decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2903-6
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • The spatio-temporal variability of droughts using the standardized
           precipitation index in Yunnan, China
    • Authors: Ziqi Yan; Yapeng Zhang; Zuhao Zhou; Ning Han
      Pages: 1023 - 1042
      Abstract: Abstract Based on the daily precipitation data from 33 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province from 1959 to 2013, the standardized precipitation index was calculated to analyze the drought frequency, station proportion, and drought intensity. The following conclusions were drawn from the analysis: (1) Drought exhibited a well-defined spatial-temporal variability characteristic. The drought frequency was much higher in the central and western areas of Yunnan, although it was the opposite throughout most of the southwestern and eastern regions. In past decades, centers with a high probability of drought was found: In the 1960s, it was located in the northwestern region of Yunnan. It was found in the northwestern and southeastern areas in the 1970s, the central region in the 1980s, the northwestern area in the 1990s, and central Yunnan and western Yunnan after 2000. (2) The drought frequency and intensity both increased at multiple timescales. The affected areas exhibited a well-defined upward trend in summer, autumn and winter. (3) The drought was normalized in Yunnan. However, in 1973, there was no severe inter-annual drought event. Moreover, there is 7% of the observed months in which no drought occurred. (4) The drought intensity increased at multiple timescales, especially in the summer and autumn. (5) There was a piecewise linear correlation between the drought area and the drought intensity. The enhancement of the intensity coincided with an increase in the affected areas. When the intensity value exceeded 1.5, the drought area decreased immediately, although it exhibited linear positive correlation with intensity.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2904-5
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • Characteristics of tropical cyclones generated in South China Sea and
           their landfalls over China and Vietnam
    • Authors: Huang Xiaoyan; He Li; Zhao Huasheng; Huang Ying
      Pages: 1043 - 1057
      Abstract: Abstract This study conducted a statistical analysis of the landfalls over China and Vietnam by using the positioning dataset of tropical cyclone (TC) from 1949 to 2014 for 66 years. The climate characteristics of South China Sea-generated tropical cyclones (SCS-G TCs) (105–120°E, 5–20°N) were analyzed; the characteristics that were analyzed include landfall frequency, intensity, average dates of first and last TC in years, landfall site, average latitudes at which the SCS-G TCs land, and time evolution characteristics. Results showed that the annual number of SCS-G TC landfalls over China and Vietnam presented a decreasing linear trend in 66 years from 1949 to 2014. Moreover, the landfall frequency of TCs clearly showed interannual and interdecadal variability. Comparison analysis showed that 152 and 147 landfall occurrences of SCS-G TCs were found over China and Vietnam in 66 years, respectively. The average landfall dates of SCS-G TCs occurred earlier in China than in Vietnam by a month, but both showed normally distributed characteristics and generated source latitude distribution. However, the peak source of landfalls over Vietnam was less than that over China by two latitudes. Furthermore, the largest proportions of SCS-G TCs with landfall occurred over the two countries.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2905-4
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • The hazard risk assessment of regional heavy rainfall over Sichuan Basin
           of China
    • Authors: Tiangui Xiao; Yongqing Wang; Yanbin Zhao; Fengrong Jing; Zhaoyu Zhan; Li Wang; Jianglin Fan; Weiwei Gan; Xue Yang; Yujie Fang
      Pages: 1155 - 1168
      Abstract: Abstract In this study, predictors for regional disastrous rainfall events over Sichuan Basin and a conceptual model for assessing their associated hazard risk levels are developed using 104 daily rain gauge observations during the 43-year period of 1961–2013. An analysis of 636 regional disastrous rainfall events reveals that their daily mean, daily maximum, area coverage, and duration could be adopted as critical hazard predictors in a conceptual model for assessing their associated risk levels. Such a conceptual model is then constructed after performing some statistical analyses through normal distribution function, interval displacement processing, correlation coefficient and weighting as well as Euclidean distance functional calculations. Since this model has obvious resolvability to grading the regional disastrous rainfall events and since it is highly consistent with the number of heavy rainstorms recorded over Sichuan Basin, it has a great potential to be applied to operational heavy rainfall forecasts and the associated hazard risk assessments in the future.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2912-5
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • Optimal selection of different CCS technologies under CO 2 reduction
    • Authors: Huanan Li; Quande Qin
      Pages: 1197 - 1209
      Abstract: Abstract In China, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is recognized as one of the most promising technologies through which to achieve a large reduction in CO2 emissions in future. The choice among different CCS technologies is critical for large-scale applications. With the aim of developing instructive policy suggestions for CCS development, this study proposed an interval programming model to select the optimal CCS technology among the different CCS technologies available in China. The analysis results indicate that the selection of CO2 capture technologies should be based on the actual situation of the project and industry being targeted. If the government implements mandatory CO2 emission reductions, storage in deep saline aquifers is the optimal choice for CO2 sequestration when oil prices are low and the number of available CO2 emission permits is large. In contrast, enhanced oil recovery is the optimal choice when oil prices increase and the availability of CO2 emission permits decreases. It is critical that the government reduce the operating cost and the cost of CO2 capture in particular.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2914-3
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • How does resilience matter' An empirical verification of the
           relationships between resilience and vulnerability
    • Authors: Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin; Hsiang-Chieh Lee; Thung-Hong Lin
      Pages: 1229 - 1250
      Abstract: Abstract The theoretical relationships between resilience and vulnerability have long been debated, but limited research has been done to test their relationships from an empirical perspective. This study presents an important case to demonstrate the empirical verification of the relationships. After reviewing relevant theories, we propose revisions of two widely adopted disaster risk and vulnerability formulas and apply them in a Taiwanese case of Typhoon Morakot. The data incorporate four natural hazard data sets, a Taiwan Social Change Survey of nonvictims as the reference group, and a longitudinal data set of Social Impact and Recovery Survey for Typhoon Morakot victims (2010–2012). With those data, two sets of models were constructed based on the two revised formulas. The first set of models estimates a disaster risk, defined as the probability and expected value of victimization determined by the typhoon hazard, household’s exposure, and contextual vulnerability composed of social class, ethnicity, education, and family status. The second set of models estimates an affected household’s outcome vulnerability, defined as the continuous trajectory of household living condition consisted of exposure, contextual vulnerability, and resilience. In the second set, outcome vulnerability is measured through household income pre- and post-disaster to depict the impact and dynamism; resilience is measured through social capital variables. Logit, ordinal linear regression (OLS), and fixed-effect regression were applied to statistically estimate the models. The results highlight that contextual vulnerability deteriorates the disaster risk of typhoon. Resilience has an impact on outcome vulnerability, but its effect is uncertain, likely to be restricted in the disaster recovery.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2916-1
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
  • Environmental hazard in Shanghai, China: lessons learned from Huangpu
           River dead pigs incident
    • Authors: Chenxi Li; Kening Wu; Jingyao Wu
      Pages: 1269 - 1272
      Abstract: Abstract This paper expounds facts related to the Huangpu River dead pigs incident on March 20, 2013, in Shanghai, China. The causes of the incident were discussed. The suggestions for solving such kind of environmental hazard were provided.
      PubDate: 2017-09-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2910-7
      Issue No: Vol. 88, No. 2 (2017)
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