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 Natural Hazards   [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [169 followers]  Follow         Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)    ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X    Published by Springer-Verlag  [2335 journals]
• Alternative representation of the Gutenberg–Richter relation in terms of
the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation
• Authors: Wen-Yen Chang; Kuei-Pao Chen; Yi-Ben Tsai
Pages: 1297 - 1322
Abstract: Abstract Gutenberg and Richter developed an empirical relation, $$\log_{10} N(M) = a - bM$$ , to quantify the seismicity rate of various magnitudes in a given region and time period. They found the equation fit observed data well both globally and for particular regions. In conventional G–R relation, N(M) represents an arithmetic mean. As a result, the arithmetic standard deviation cannot be explicitly incorporated in the log-linear G–R relation. Moreover, this representation is susceptible to influence of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks of major earthquake sequences. To overcome these shortcomings, we propose an alternative representation of the G–R relation in terms of the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation. We select the crustal earthquake data from 1973 to 2011, as listed in the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) global catalog and the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Taiwan regional catalog, to illustrate our methodology. We first show that by using the logarithmic annual seismicity rates we can significantly suppress the influences of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks following major earthquake sequences contained in the Taiwan regional catalog. More significantly, both the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation can be explicitly represented in the Gutenberg–Richter relation as follows: $${\text{For}}\,{\text{global}}\,{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 8.14 - 1.03M \pm (0.04M - 0.13);$$ $${\text{For}}\,{\text{Taiwan}}\;{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 5.62 - 0.90M \pm (0.02M + 0.17)$$ where log10 N represents the logarithmic annual seismicity rate. Above analytical equations are very well constrained by observed global seismicity data with $$5.0 \le M \le 7.0$$ and by Taiwan seismicity data with $$3.0 \le M \le 5.0$$ . Both equations can be extrapolated with confidence to simultaneously estimate not only the median annual seismicity rates but also their uncertainties for large earthquakes for the first time since inception of the G–R relation. These equations can be used to improve the conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by including the dispersion of the annual seismicity rate. Finally, the corresponding numerical median annual seismicity rate with its upper and lower bounds obtained from above equations for $$5.0 \le M \le 9.0$$ is listed in Table 1. Table 1 Observed and estimated median annual seismicity rate and return period with their dispersions for Taiwan and global crustal earthquakes Magnitude Catalog Taiwan catalog (CWB) Taiwan catalog (CWB) Global catalog (NEIC) Global catalog (NEIC) Annual rate (event/year) Return period (year) Annual rate (event/year) Return period (ye...
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2577-5
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic
regression model
• Authors: Nussaïbah B. Raja; Ihsan Çiçek; Necla Türkoğlu; Olgu Aydin; Akiyuki Kawasaki
Pages: 1323 - 1346
Abstract: Abstract Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2591-7
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Evaluating reconstruction effects on urban resilience: a comparison
between two Chilean tsunami-prone cities
• Authors: Irina Tumini; Paula Villagra-Islas; Geraldine Herrmann-Lunecke
Pages: 1363 - 1392
Abstract: Abstract Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2630-4
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Experimental and numerical investigations on the performance of
sacrificial piles in reducing local scour around pile groups
• Authors: Chen Wang; Fayun Liang; Xiong Yu
Pages: 1417 - 1435
Abstract: Abstract This paper presents both experimental study and numerical simulation to investigate the effects of an innovative sacrificial piles concept to reduce local scour surrounding service piles. These sacrificial piles are placed upstream of the pile groups, which serves to change the flow field and reduce the erosive force before it reaches the service piles. Four types of pile group arrangements were considered in the experimental and simulation analyses, including single pile, double pile in tandem arrangements, double pile with side-by-side arrangements, and pile array of 2 × 2 arrangements. Scaled experiments were conducted in flume for each group of design, and local scour around piles with and without sacrificial piles was monitored. It was found that the sacrificial piles effectively reduced the development of local scour surrounding the service piles, especially at their heels. The results also showed that the use of sacrificial piles reduced the time required for the scour depth to reach the equilibrium conditions than those without the sacrificial piles. To corroborate the experimental observation, numerical simulation with three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model has also been carried out with commercial code with verified erosion model. The development of dynamic scour process and maximum scour depth were obtained by the computational simulations. Comparison of experimental and computational results both indicates that the use of sacrificial pile is effective in reducing the scour depth. The extent of reduction in the maximum scour depth varied with the arrangement of sacrificial piles.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2634-0
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Occurrence of emergencies and disaster analysis according to precipitation
amount
• Authors: Katiusca M. Briones-Estébanez; Nelson F. F. Ebecken
Pages: 1437 - 1459
Abstract: Abstract An analysis of the occurrences of events related to precipitation, considering extensive and intensive risk, i.e., emergencies and disasters, based on twenty-nine years of data for five cities of Ecuador provided relevant information about the behavior over time of floods, river overflows and landslides. The records of events were examined in the immediate and in the short term, which corresponded to 5 and 30 days, respectively, using the data mining methods k-means and association rules, to identify the patterns that govern their behaviors with respect to the observed amount of precipitation. The results show an increase in the frequency of similar events, with the occurrences being separated by shorter periods in recent decades. The behavior of emergencies and disasters indicates that emergencies are expected for periods of 5 days, with low quantities of precipitation and for periods of 30 days with normal quantities of precipitation. Disasters are expected, for both periods of 5 and 30 days, in the higher quantiles of precipitation. Interrelations between floods, river overflows and landslides were identified in all cities, with at least one relationship between two of the hazards for each city. An apparent flood–river overflow–landslide cycle could explain the mechanics of their occurrence. The information provided by the results indicates the vulnerability of the cities over time, their low capacity to support normal quantities of precipitation and their high exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards. The products obtained could be used together with precipitation prediction to anticipate possible effects and to formulate adequate risk management policies.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2635-z
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Automated derivation and spatio-temporal analysis of landslide properties
in southern Kyrgyzstan
• Authors: Darya Golovko; Sigrid Roessner; Robert Behling; Birgit Kleinschmit
Pages: 1461 - 1488
Abstract: Abstract The study area located in southern Kyrgyzstan is affected by high and ongoing landslide activity. To characterize this activity, a multi-temporal landslide inventory containing over 2800 landslide polygons was generated from multiple data sources. The latter include the results of automated landslide detection from multi-temporal satellite imagery. The polygonal representation of the landslides allows for characterization of the landslide geometry and determination of further landslide attributes in a way that accounts for the diversity of conditions within the landslide, e.g., at the landslide main scarp opposed to its toe. To perform such analyses, a methodology for efficient geographic information system (GIS)-based attribute derivation was developed, which includes both standard and customized GIS tools. We derived a number of landslide attributes, including area, length, compactness, slope, aspect, distance to stream and geology. The distributions of these attributes were analyzed to obtain a better understanding of landslide properties in the study area as a preliminary step for probabilistic landslide hazard assessment. The obtained spatial and temporal attribute variations were linked to differences in the environmental characteristics within the study area, in which the geological setting proved to be the most important differentiating factor. Moreover, a significant influence of the different data sources on the distribution of the landslide attribute values was found, indicating the importance of a critical evaluation of the landslide data to be used in landslide hazard assessments.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2636-y
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Evolution of forest fires in Portugal: from spatio-temporal point events
to smoothed density maps
• Authors: Marj Tonini; Mário Gonzalez Pereira; Joana Parente; Carmen Vega Orozco
Pages: 1489 - 1510
Abstract: Abstract The spatial and temporal distribution of forest fires displays a complex pattern which strongly influences the forest landscape and the neighbouring anthropogenic development. Statistical methods developed for spatio-temporal stochastic point processes can be employed to find a structure, detect over-densities and trends in forest fire risk and address towards prevention and forecasting measures. The present study considers the Portuguese mapped burnt areas official geodatabase resulting from interpreted satellite measurements, covering the period 1990–2013. The main goal is to detect whether space and time act independently or whether, conversely, neighbouring events are also closer in time, interacting to generate clusters. To this purpose, the following statistical methods were applied: (1) the geographically weighted summary statistics, to explore how the average burned area vary locally through the investigated region; (2) the bivariate K-function, to test the space–time interaction and the spatial attraction/independency between fires of different size; and (3) the space–time kernel density, allowing elaborating smoothed density surfaces and representing over-densities of large versus medium versus small fires and on north versus south region. The proposed approach successfully allowed finding and mapping spatio-temporal patterns within this large data series. Specifically, medium fires tend to aggregate around small fires, while large fires aggregate at a larger distance and longer times, indicating that the return time following these events is longer than for small and medium fires. The density maps shows that hot spots are present almost each year in the northern region, with a higher concentration in the northern areas, while the southern half of the country counts lower surface densities of fires, which are mainly concentrated in the central period (2000–2007).
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2637-x
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Evaluating the accuracy of ANN and LR models to estimate the water quality
in Zarivar International Wetland, Iran
• Authors: Jamil Amanollahi; Shahram Kaboodvandpour; Hiva Majidi
Pages: 1511 - 1527
Abstract: Abstract One of the most important qualitative aspects of wetland ecosystem management is preserving the natural quality of water in such environments. This would not be achievable unless continuous water quality monitoring is implemented. With the recent advances in remote sensing technology, this technology could assist us to produce accurate models for estimating water quality variables in the ecosystem of wetlands. The present study was carried out to evaluate the capability of remote sensing data to estimate the water quality variables [pH, total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), turbidity, nitrate, sulfate, phosphate, chloride and the concentration of chlorophyll a] in Zarivar International Wetland using linear regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. For this purpose, spectral reflectance of bands 2, 3, 4 and 5 of the OLI sensor of Landsat 8 was utilized as the input data and the collected chemical and physical data of water samples were selected as the objective data for both ANN and LR models. Based on our results overall, ANN model was the proper model compared with LR model. The spectral reflectance in bands 5 and 4 of OLI sensor revealed the best results to estimate TDS, TSS, turbidity and chlorophyll in comparison with other used bands in ANN model, respectively. We conclude that OLI sensor data are an excellent means for studying physical properties of water quality and comparing its chemical properties.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2641-1
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• On the problem of destructive Iranian earthquakes and their causative
faults
• Authors: Mohammad Jalali; Hamidreza Ramazi
Pages: 1529 - 1555
Abstract: Abstract This article is devoted to evaluating destructive earthquakes (magnitude >6) of Iran and determining properties of their source parameters. First of all, a database of documented earthquakes has been prepared via reliable references and causative faults of each event have been determined. Then, geometric parameters of each fault have been presented completely. Critical parameters such as Maximum Credible Rupture, MCR, and Maximum Credible Earthquake, MCE, have been compiled based on the geometrical parameters of the earthquake faults. The calculated parameters have been compared to the maximum earthquake and the surface rupture which have been recorded for the earthquake faults. Also, the distance between the epicenter of documented earthquake events and their causative faults has been calculated (the distance was less than 20 km for 90% of the data). Then, the distance between destructive earthquakes (with the magnitude more than 6) and the nearest active fault has been calculated. If the estimated distance is less than 20 km and the mechanism of the active fault and the event are reported the same, the active fault will be introduced as a probable causative fault of that earthquake. In the process, all of the available geological, tectonic, seismotectonic maps, aerial geophysical data as well as remote sensing images have been evaluated. Based on the quality and importance of earthquake data, the events have been classified into three categories: (1) the earthquakes which have their causative faults documented, (2) the events with magnitude higher than 7, and (3) the events with the magnitude between 6 and 7. For each category, related maps and tables have been compiled and presented. Some important faults and events have been also described throughout the paper. As mentioned in this paper, these faults are likely to be in high seismic regions with potential for large-magnitude events as they are long, deep and bound sectors of the margins characterized by different deformation and coupling rates on the plate interface.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2643-z
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• What do people think about the flood risk' An experience with the
residents of Talcahuano city, Chile
• Authors: A. Lara; X. Garcia; F. Bucci; A. Ribas
Pages: 1557 - 1575
Abstract: Abstract In the province of Concepción (Chile), floods are considered one of the main natural hazards. One of the most important cities of this area is Talcahuano. During the last years, Talcahuano has been affected by a number of flood episodes, as a consequence of an increase in the frequency of extraordinary atmospheric events, along with a higher exposure to the flood risk caused by an intense urban development. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8° earthquake (Richter scale) occurred in central southern Chile and originated the tsunami which flooded a large percentage of the residential area and military base of the Talcahuano city. This flood event affected a population higher than 180,000 people (including 23 casualties and invaluable economic and environmental losses). The objective of this study is to investigate the social perception and knowledge of Talcahuano residents affected by different types of flood, including tsunami, emphasizing which are their risks, vulnerability, resilience and coping capacity concepts. In addition, the kind of measures that have been proposed to improve their capacity to face floods after having suffered the natural disaster will be determined. This social assessment has been carried out based on a survey to permanent residents. Research results reveal that their endogenous and exogenous characteristics have resulted determinant to explain their perception.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2644-y
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Assessing hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model
uncertainty
• Authors: Cao Wang; Hao Zhang; Kairui Feng; Quanwang Li
Pages: 1621 - 1635
Abstract: Abstract Probability-based assessment of hurricane damage costs for coastal communities is vital for policy-makers and insurers. The uncertainties associated with hurricane damage costs include both the inherent uncertainty due to the random nature of hurricane process and the model uncertainty of the mathematical representation of hurricane damage (vulnerability model). The hurricane vulnerability model has traditionally been modeled as a deterministic function of hurricane wind speed in the literature, without considering the effect of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage assessment. This paper develops two methods to assess the hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty. To account for the non-stationarity in hurricane actions due to the potential impact of climate change, the hurricane occurrence process is modeled as a non-stationary Poisson process and the hurricane intensity is assumed to vary in time with time-variant statistical parameters of hurricane wind speed. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, is conducted to illustrate the proposed methods and to investigate the impact of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage costs.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2651-z
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation
modeling for distant tsunamis
• Authors: Kevin D. Henry; Nathan J. Wood; Tim G. Frazier
Pages: 1665 - 1687
Abstract: Abstract Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2655-8
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Frequency and lapse time dependent seismic attenuation in eastern Himalaya
and southern Tibet
• Authors: Sagar Singh; Chandrani Singh; Rahul Biswas; Arun Singh
Pages: 1709 - 1722
Abstract: Abstract We have studied the attenuation characteristics of eastern Himalaya and southern Tibet by using local earthquake data set that consists of 123 well-located events, recorded by the Himalayan Nepal Tibet Seismic Experiment operated during 2001–2003. We have used single backscattering model to calculate frequency-dependent values of coda Q ( $$Q_\mathrm{c}$$ ). The estimation of $$Q_\mathrm{c}$$ is made at central frequencies 2, 4, 8 and 12 Hz through five lapse time windows from 10 to 50 s starting at double the travel time of the S-wave. The observed $$Q_\mathrm{c}$$ is found to be strongly frequency-dependent and follows a similar trend as observed in other tectonically active parts of the Himalaya. The trend of variation of $$Q_\mathrm{c}$$ with lapse time and the corresponding apparent depths is also studied. Increase in $$Q_\mathrm{c}$$ values with the lapse time suggests that the deeper part of the study region is less heterogeneous than the shallower part. The observed values of $$Q_0$$ ( $$Q_\mathrm{c}$$ at 1 Hz) and frequency parameter n indicate that the medium beneath the study area is highly heterogeneous and tectonically very active. A regionalization of the estimated $$Q_0$$ is carried out, and a contour map is prepared for the whole region. Some segments of Lesser Himalaya and Sub-Himalaya exhibit very low $$Q_0$$ , while the whole Tethyan Himalaya and some parts of Greater Himalaya are characterized by low $$Q_0$$ values. Our results are comparable with those obtained from tectonically active regions in the world.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2660-y
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• On increasing monsoon rainstorms over India
• Authors: S. Karuna Sagar; M. Rajeevan; S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao
Pages: 1743 - 1757
Abstract: Abstract Using a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall data set for the period 1951–2015, new objective criteria were developed to determine rainstorms over the Indian region during the south-west monsoon season (June to September). The rainstorms thus identified have rainfall of 125 mm/day or more at the centre, cover minimum 50,000 km2 in area with rainfall of 25 mm or more and sustain for at least two consecutive days. These rainstorms have potential to cause large-scale floods and associated risk over the region in which they are present. The analysis identified 395 rainstorms during the period, 1951–2015, on an average 6 storms per season. About 40% of the rainstorms are associated with the low-pressure systems which form over the North Bay of Bengal and move north-westwards along the seasonal monsoon trough. The present analysis suggests that over northern parts of India, where majority of rainstorms form, frequency and duration of rainstorms have shown statistically significant increasing trends. During the period of 1951–2015, there was an increase from 4 to 8 rainstorms per year and from 12 to 27 rainstorm days per year. This increase has significant repercussions in terms of added risk of large-scale floods and associated causalities. Further analysis suggests that rainstorm activity over northern parts of India is strongly influenced by the colder sea surface temperature anomalies over the east equatorial Indian Ocean and associated moisture divergent flow and strong moisture convergence over the Indian landmass and the Bay of Bengal.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2662-9
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Does the perception of climate change vary with the socio-demographic
dimensions' A study on vulnerable populations in Bangladesh
• Authors: Shah Md. Atiqul Haq; Khandaker Jafor Ahmed
Pages: 1759 - 1785
Abstract: Abstract This study tried to explore the perception of climate change by considering the socio-demographic dimensions of vulnerable populations in Bangladesh. This study included 158 respondents from an extremely flood affected area of Sylhet by using multistage sampling. This study used both quantitative and qualitative method to analyze data. Using several statistical tools and doing paraphrased translation of key information, this study find that the perception of climate change varies depending on the different socio-demographic dimensions such as gender, marital status, religion and age. Findings also show that the concern about climate change and the reasons for it as well as the prospective solutions and pathways to reduce its impacts are present in different socio-demographic dimensions. This study particularly reveals that the majority of the populations consider the reason of climate change from sinful activities of the individuals and wish of God. Other, however, considers that deforestation and river dredging are the reasons of climate change. And most people perceive that increasing education on the environment, changing human behavior and community level participation, can lead to reduce the adverse situations of climate change in developing countries like Bangladesh.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2664-7
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Determination of building age for Istanbul buildings to be used for the
earthquake damage analysis according to structural codes by using aerial
and satellite images in GIS
• Authors: Betul Ergun Konukcu; Himmet Karaman; Muhammed Şahin
Pages: 1811 - 1834
Abstract: Abstract Istanbul is located in one of the most active seismic zones in the world. Since Istanbul is the industrial, commercial, cultural and educational center of Turkey, it attracts ongoing migration from all over Turkey. However, those migrations caused unplanned construction and those unplanned constructions led to the formation of vulnerable and undocumented building stock in Istanbul. Many scientific studies estimated that Istanbul is expecting a major earthquake and the expected damage to the structures will be extensive. Therefore, there have been a lot of building damage estimations for the possible Istanbul earthquake to recommended precautions and to be prepared. A major disadvantage of Istanbul case is the lack of knowledge for the absolute number of buildings and the ages of those buildings. Up to now, many studies for Istanbul used the building dataset of Istanbul with the number starting from 1.1 to 1.5 million without the absolute age information. To make a correct or reliable earthquake damage estimation, a building database that contains at least building age, construction type and number of floors is required in most of the earthquake loss assessment software. This paper aims to determine the buildings of Istanbul and the age of them, according to structural codes for the earthquake zones by using aerial and satellite images of Istanbul. The classification should be based on the regulation so as to minimize the age classes and maximize the accuracy. First building regulations in Turkey came into force in 1940 in order to determine essential conditions for the realization of functional, safe and disaster-resistant building design in Turkey. Last updated building code regulations have come into force in 2007 in Turkey. It was also important to investigate the proper building detection method for the aim of this study, and it was determined as the manual digitization. In this study, the buildings of Istanbul and the age of them are determined for every single building, by digitizing the selected aerial and satellite images of Istanbul based on the official structural codes in Turkey. Thus, first the exact number and location of buildings in Istanbul and every single buildings age were determined. The results were also validated with two separate studies of Istanbul for different periods of times. By this way, earthquake damage analysis for the Istanbul buildings can be run for the real building data of Istanbul with any earthquake loss assessment software.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2666-5
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Evaluation of climate change in northern Iran during the last four
centuries by using dendroclimatology
• Authors: V. Gholami; M. Ahmadi Jolandan; J. Torkaman
Pages: 1835 - 1850
Abstract: Abstract Climate change is currently one of the most important environmental issues. Dendrochronology is frequently used to identify the climatic changes most closely associated with changes in tree-ring extent. We applied dendroclimatology to determine the climate changes in the Roodbar region of Iran during the last four centuries. The climatic index of De Martonne (aridity index), annual precipitation, and annual mean temperature were simulated by using dendroclimatology (tree-rings) and an artificial neural network (ANN). Dendroclimatology studies were carried out with the use of the Cupressus sempervirens species. A multilayer perceptron network was adopted for the ANN. Tree-ring width was the input variable for the simulation, whereas annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and the aridity index were the outputs. After the training process, the network was validated. The validated network and tree-rings were used to simulate changes in climatic factors during the last four centuries. The climatic factors simulated by using dendroclimatology can be used in drought studies and climate change evaluation. The results showed that in the last four centuries, the climate of the study area changed from semiarid to arid, and its annual precipitation decreased significantly. The significant changes in climate were found to occur in the mid-twentieth century.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2667-4
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Deriving short-duration rainfall IDF curves from a regional climate model
• Authors: M. T. Vu; V. S. Raghavan; S.-Y. Liong
Pages: 1877 - 1891
Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to exacerbate the extremes in the climate variables. Being prone to harsh climate impacts, it is very crucial to study extreme rainfall-induced flooding for short durations over regions that are rapidly growing. One way to study the extremes is by the application of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The annual maximum rainfall intensity (AMRI) characteristics are often used to construct these IDF curves that are being used in several infrastructure designs for urban areas. Thus, there is a need to obtain high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall information. Many urban areas of developing countries lack long records of short-duration rainfall. The shortest duration obtained is normally at a daily scale/24 h. Thus, it is very crucial to find a methodology to construct IDF curves for short-duration rainfall (sub-daily) for these urban areas. Vietnam is a developing country with rapidly increasing population as well as urbanization. The fast extension of urban area that does not have adequate preparedness to cope with climate change is certainly a big risk to life and economy. The limitation in studying impacts over many regions of Vietnam is the need for robust and sufficient data, both spatial and temporal. To overcome this limitation, this paper describes constructing IDF curves using 6 hourly rainfall AMRI output from a regional climate model (RCM) that downscaled a global climate model (GCM) output at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The study region is Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam. The sub-daily IDF curves for current and future climate for Hanoi were constructed from 1 to 24 h based on the simple scaling approach. The findings indicate that it is likely that Hanoi might experience more flooding conditions in the future with the AMRI increasing between 34 and 48% for all return periods from 10 to 200 years. The methodology adopted in this paper is suitable for similar ungauged areas elsewhere and will provide useful information in devising adequate planning strategies for drainage designs.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2670-9
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• A probability method of rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in
developing countries: a case study in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico
• Authors: Laura Sanchez-Castillo; Tetsuya Kubota; Israel Cantú-Silva; Toshiyuki Moriyama; Hasnawir
Pages: 1893 - 1906
Abstract: Abstract Sediment-related disasters may cause high casualties and economic losses in mountainous zones. The occurrence of these natural hazards in developing countries, where recovery efforts usually exceed the available resources, brings to the fore the urgent need to develop rainfall criteria, in order to understand, mitigate and reduce to the barest minimum the adversities with the available data resources. Unfortunately, many restrictions are encountered in developing countries, for example in Mexico: historical rainfall information is difficult to access and if available, it is only on a daily basis, thereby, making rainfall criteria development almost impossible. Therefore, this research provides a disaster probability approach named interim zone using the relationship between the disaster occurrence and rainfall episodes, in order to be used as a rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico. From the total rainfall data by rainfall episodes, we could establish an interim zone where 71.9 mm is the minimum amount of rainfall needed to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 112.6 mm is the amount of rainfall if exceeded makes the probability of disaster occurrence high. Using maximum intensity, the interim zone is within 57.7 mm/day as minimum value to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 83.6 mm/day as the amount high likely to cause a sediment-related disaster.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2669-2
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

• Natural and anthropogenic hazards in the Yellow River Delta, China
• Authors: Shanzhong Qi; Haili Liu
Pages: 1907 - 1911
Abstract: Abstract In China, the Yellow River Delta is a unique region with vulnerable ecosystems, and it is under the largest pressure from various risk sources. In recent years, this region has experienced rapid economic growth. However, the delta is vulnerable to environmental hazards and is seriously affected by various natural and anthropogenic hazards, such as coastal erosion, land subsidence, saltwater intrusion, soil salinization and groundwater pollution, due to natural disasters and human activities, thereby increasing the risk of environmental degradation in the Yellow River Delta.
PubDate: 2017-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2638-9
Issue No: Vol. 85, No. 3 (2017)

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