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BIOLOGY (1353 journals)            First | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 | Last

Journal of Mathematical Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Journal of Mechanics in Medicine and Biology     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Medical Primatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Medical Toxicology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Medicine and Philosophy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Membrane Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Membrane Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Molecular Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Journal of Molecular Biology Research     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Molecular Catalysis B: Enzymatic     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Molecular Cell Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Molecular Evolution     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Journal of Molecular Signaling     Open Access  
Journal of Molecular Structure     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Molluscan Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Muscle Research and Cell Motility     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Nanoparticle Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Nanoparticles     Open Access  
Journal of Natural History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Natural Products     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Natural Science, Biology and Medicine     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Natural Sciences Research     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Negative Results in BioMedicine     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Nematology     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Neuroscience and Behavioral Health     Open Access  
Journal of New Seeds     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Nucleic Acids     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Parasitology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Parasitology and Vector Biology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Pharmacological and Toxicological Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Phycology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Physics D : Applied Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Physics: Condensed Matter     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Physics: Conference Series     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Phytopathology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Plankton Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Plant Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Journal of Plasma Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Pollination Ecology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Porphyrins and Phthalocyanines     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Proteome Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Proteomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Risk Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Science of the University of Kelaniya Sri Lanka     Open Access  
Journal of Seed Science     Open Access  
Journal of Signal Transduction     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Stored Products Research     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Structural and Functional Genomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Structural Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Sustainable Bioenergy Systems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Sustainable Society     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Systematic Palaeontology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Systematics Evolution     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association     Full-text available via subscription  
Journal of the Korean Society for Applied Biological Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of the North American Benthological Society     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System     Open Access  
Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of the South Carolina Academy of Science     Open Access  
Journal of Theoretical Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Journal of Thermal Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Thyroid Research     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Tissue Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Tropical Life Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vacuum Science & Technology A     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vacuum Science & Technology B     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Vector Ecology     Free   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vegetation Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Vestibular Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Vinyl & Additive Technology     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Virological Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Virology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 19)
Journal of Visualized Experiments     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Zhejiang University - Science B     Hybrid Journal  
Jurnal Penelitian Sains (JPS)     Open Access  
Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University Journal Of Natural Sciences     Open Access  
Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Kew Bulletin     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
KINOME     Open Access  
Knowledge and Management of Aquatic Ecosystems     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Koedoe : African Protected Area Conservation and Science     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Kurtziana     Open Access  
Landscape and Ecological Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Large Marine Ecosystems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Le Naturaliste canadien     Full-text available via subscription  
Letters in Mathematical Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Life     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Life : The Excitement of Biology     Full-text available via subscription  
Life Sciences, Society and Policy     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Limnological Papers     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Lipid Insights     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Lipid Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Lipids     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Lipids in Health and Disease     Open Access  
Luminescence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
mAbs     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Macromolecular Bioscience     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Macromolecular Reaction Engineering     Hybrid Journal  

  First | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 | Last

Journal Cover   Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.591]   [H-I: 40]   [304 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2300 journals]
  • Regional map of earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard using the lateral
           spreading displacement index D LL
    • Abstract: Abstract We present regional maps of earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard in Mexico considering the lateral or horizontal spreading displacement, as index, D LL . The methodology to prepare the liquefaction hazard maps consists of five steps: (1) identifying zones with soil deposits that are more susceptible to displaying liquefaction based on geologic available information at a 1:1,000,000 scale; (2) characterizing the seismic hazard as a set of stochastic events that collectively describe the hazard, compatible with the distribution of location, depth, frequencies, magnitudes and attenuation of the seismic strong ground motion; (3) employing a parametric method, based on empirical data, to estimate the demand of permanent ground deformation expected due to liquefaction (in this study, the lateral spreading displacement of the ground, D LL ) by event and for the site required; (4) characterizing the earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard as a set of stochastic events that describe the spatial distribution demand of liquefaction for each event; and (5) performing a probabilistic analysis of liquefaction hazard. The results of liquefaction hazard associated with return periods of 150 and 500 years are shown on maps of Mexico. Those maps are compared qualitatively with historical information collected from sites where, based on descriptions, the phenomenon of earthquake-induced liquefaction is seen to have occurred from the year 1593 to 2010. The results obtained in this study provide a first approximation to the liquefaction hazard zones in the country, in accordance with sites where historical evidence of liquefaction has been reported. In addition, the application could be important in land-use planning and urban development, particularly in regions with a historical certainty of earthquake-induced liquefaction, but with little or no geotechnical and/or geophysical studies. These maps can be used to locate zones where more in-depth studies are required to estimate, with less uncertainty, the potential for earthquake-induced liquefaction.
      PubDate: 2015-02-22
  • Estimation of the Risk Management Index (RMI) using statistical analysis
    • Abstract: Abstract Based on a statistical analysis, we developed a methodology to determine the Risk Management Index (RMI) at the local level. The algorithm is transparent, relatively easy to update periodically by the affected communities themselves, and the results are easy to understand by public policymakers. The main characteristics of this tool are: (1) It considers disaster management issues at the local level; (2) RMI values are obtained using a statistical analysis; (3) levels of performance are classified in a scale of numbers ranging from 0 to 5, where 0 = nonexistent, 1 = low, 2 = incipient, 3 = significant, 4 = outstanding, and 5 = optimal; (4) the weight of the indicators is determined using the analytic hierarchy process. As case studies we applied this methodology to the districts of Iztapalapa and Xochimilco in Mexico City, Mexico. Our results indicate that, to date, the Xochimilco District has not implemented any actions designed to reduce risk or to provide financial protection. Low performance was measured also in risk identification and disaster management. The Iztapalapa District has an outstanding level of performance in risk identification. However, its score is low in activities related to risk reduction, disaster management, and financial protection. The RMIs obtained in both communities highlight the need for developing permanent programs for disaster prevention, mitigation, and response. The methodology used here is designed to aid in evaluating and understanding existing disaster management problems in a community and in guiding the decision-making processes to reduce the hazard and to conduct remedial actions at the local level.
      PubDate: 2015-02-20
  • Investigating the CO 2 emission differences among China’s transport
           sectors and their influencing factors
    • Abstract: Abstract China’s transport industry is a priority area for energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction due to its great carbon emissions. Based on the data of 1980–2012, this study first analyzes the CO2 emission differences among China’s four transport sub-sectors, i.e., road, waterway, aviation and railway, using the σ-convergence and β-convergence methods. Subsequently, it explores the influencing factors for CO2 emissions in China’s four transport sub-sectors, respectively, with the logarithmic mean Divisia index method. The following results are obtained. First, road and waterway are the major sources for China’s transport CO2 emissions, and the road sector acts as the relatively largest CO2 emitter. In 2012, the CO2 emissions of road, waterway, aviation and railway accounted for 65.21, 29.07, 3.61 and 2.11 % of the total, respectively. Second, the CO2 emission differences among China’s transport sectors gradually shrank during the period 1980–1996, while gradually widened during 1996–2012. Third, the economic growth served as one of the most important factors, driving China’s transport CO2 emission growth over the period 1980–2012. In this period, the CO2 emissions of road, waterway, aviation and railway sectors increased by 561.71, 265.27, 54.07 and 28.28 Mt, respectively.
      PubDate: 2015-02-19
  • Separation of source, site and near-surface attenuation effects in western
    • Abstract: Abstract We analyzed 1764 records from 322 micro- and moderate-size local earthquakes in the central west Turkey to separate source, site and near-surface attenuation effects by utilizing a generalized inversion technique (GIT) to the spectra. GIT site transfer functions were compared with horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) estimates by Akyol et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 170(12):2107–2125. doi: 10.1007/s00024-013-0661-2, 2013). Large amplitude values of vertical component GIT site transfer functions were obtained at different frequency bands for some of the sites. These results imply contaminations of HVSR estimates due to basin geometry induced waves caused by deep or shallow lateral heterogeneities. GIT source function estimates were interpreted as Brune source model. Weak epicentral dependence of near-surface attenuation parameter κ with large scattering could be attributed to the source and propagation path complexities along different paths arriving to the stations. Large f e values with large κ 0 values emphasize near-surface weathered zones attenuation effect at high frequencies.
      PubDate: 2015-02-19
  • Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk
           analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China
    • Abstract: Abstract Many factors are involved in the occurrence of crop drought events, and some related studies have focused on the problems of multi-factor integration. Probability is the basis of disaster risk research, but the solver of multi-element integrated probability, commonly used in drought risk analysis, cannot solve the multi-factor nonlinear relationship. Therefore, new methods are needed to build the joint probability distribution of multi-element integration, and the use of the copula function is one approach that can better explain the combined effects of multi-factor equations. We extracted the sequence of meteorological drought events during the growth period of winter wheat in Beijing from 1952 to 2012 and selected the appropriate characterization of drought severity and duration. The copula function was used to build a joint distribution function and to calculate the return period of drought events. Based on the joint probability method, the joint return periods were calculated and resulting risk was analyzed. The joint return periods were close to reality, and they offer greater potential for improving high-level meteorological drought disaster mitigation, strategy planning, program design, and risk management. Using the joint probability and values of the featured variables, the joint return period under different conditions could be calculated easily. The contribution of the copula function in estimating the uncertainty of drought level risk can lay the foundation for a joint analysis of multi-factor crop meteorological disaster risk.
      PubDate: 2015-02-19
  • Explaining the pre-disaster integration of Community Emergency Response
           Teams (CERTs)
    • Abstract: Abstract This study explored the pre-disaster integration of Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) within local emergency management systems through semi-structured telephone interviews with 21 CERT program coordinators. It was found that the integration of CERTs varied significantly from not integrated at all to highly integrated. This paper reports the findings related to why this variation occurred. Specifically, it was found that integration seemed to covary with the resources available to the team, the opportunity within the local emergency management system for the CERT to play a role, the team’s leadership, the formality of the team’s structure, and the acceptance of CERT within the local emergency management system.
      PubDate: 2015-02-18
  • Hydro-climatic hazards for crops and cropping system in the chars of the
           Jamuna River and potential adaptation options
    • Abstract: Abstract Char (Bengali term for riverine island) is a unique socioecological system associated with a large alluvial river. About 4 % of the 160 million people of Bangladesh, who are mostly poor, live in chars, which are located within and alongside its major rivers—the Jamuna, Ganges and Meghna. Agriculture is the mainstay of livelihoods in these riverine chars. However, the cropping system of the chars is at risk to different hydro-climatic hazards due to their vulnerable physical and climatic settings. This study assesses the various hazards to major cash crops in the chars of the Jamuna River and identifies the current coping practices and suggests potential adaptation measures against such hazards. The study is conducted using a combination of conventional and participatory research approaches through analysis of available hydro-climatic data from secondary sources and synthesis of primary information on hazards, their impacts, coping practices and planned adaptations collected directly from the fields using participatory research tools by a multi-disciplinary team. The findings of the study reveal that flood, untimely rain, cold, fog, drought, pest infestation, wind, hailstorm and erosion are the principal hazards to agricultural crops in the Jamuna chars. The hazards vary depending on the crops, and chilli is found to be more vulnerable than other crops. Among the different actors, the crop producers are the worst affected by the hazards. Use of plastic sheet, irrigation and pesticide, reseeding, early harvesting and growing chance crops are among the prominent coping strategies of the producers. The study recommends provisioning of drying, storage and credit facilities, introducing short-duration and disaster-resilient crop varieties, developing local capacity through training and extension services, and improving weather forecasting and dissemination to reduce the agricultural risks in the chars. The findings will be useful in designing programs and interventions in agricultural system to improve the livelihoods of the char dwellers, particularly in south Asia.
      PubDate: 2015-02-17
  • Assimilation of Doppler weather radar data and their impacts on the
           simulation of squall events during pre-monsoon season
    • Abstract: Abstract The quantitative data from Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) such as the radial winds and reflectivity are useful for improving the numerical prediction of weather events like squalls. Mesoscale convective systems are responsible for majority of the squall and hail events and related natural hazards that occur over Bangladesh and surrounding region in pre-monsoon season. In this study, DWR observations (radial winds and reflectivity) of Bangladesh Meteorological Department are used for simulating the squall events during May 2011 with a view to update the initial and boundary conditions through three-dimensional variational assimilation technique within the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The simulated sea-level pressure, thermodynamic indices, wind fields at 850 hPa, and cloud hydrometeors from eight experiments are presented in this study for analyzing the observed and simulated features of the squall events which occurred in the month of May 2011. The model results are also compared with the Kalpana-1 satellite imagery and the observations of India Meteorological Department. Further, the intensity of the events generated from the simulations is also compared with the in situ meteorological observations in order to evaluate the model performance.
      PubDate: 2015-02-17
  • Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s
           slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin
    • Abstract: Abstract The main objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability and trends of rainfall and river flow in the Cobres River basin, southern Portugal, using statistical tools. The present study is focused on the analysis of the trends in annual precipitations and river flow at a regional scale over 40 years (1960–2000). Datasets of daily precipitation recorded in eight rainfall stations and three river flow stations were analyzed. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s methods were used to determine whether there was a positive or negative trend in rainfall data with their statistical significance. A detailed statistical analysis applied to the river flow and rainfall time series of all gauges indicates that rainfall is highly temporally variable and there is a decrease in the annual rainfall amount for the period studied (1960–2000). Thus, there are signs of significant rainfall reduction in the basin, and in fact, some rain gauges show a small rainfall increase during the recent decades. The annual river flow variation has a cyclic behavior with a period length of approximately 10 years. The results seem integrated to the global and European continental scale findings: Decreasing trends are dominant for almost all indices; most of the calculated slopes are statistically insignificant; the distribution of positive and negative slopes in the area is extremely irregular; and the changes in basin are more significant compared to other studies.
      PubDate: 2015-02-15
  • A real-time flood forecasting system with dual updating of the NWP
           rainfall and the river flow
    • Abstract: Abstract Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are gaining more and more attention in providing high-resolution rainfall forecasts for real-time flood forecasting. In this study, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is integrated with the probability distribution model (PDM) to make real-time flow forecasts in a small catchment located in Southwest England. In order to improve the accuracy of the NWP rainfall and flow forecasts, dual real-time updating is carried out in the forecasting system through data assimilation. The three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique is coupled with the WRF model to assimilate radar reflectivity and traditional meteorological data; meanwhile, the autoregressive moving average model works with the rainfall–runoff model PDM to assimilate real-time flow observations. Four 24-h storm events with different characteristics of rainfall–runoff responses are selected from the study catchment to test the performance of the constructed forecasting system. The flood forecasting accuracy is found to be largely improved by incorporating the NWP forecasted rainfall when the lead time is beyond the catchment concentration time. The assimilation of radar and meteorological data also shows great advantage in improving the NWP rainfall forecasts.
      PubDate: 2015-02-15
  • Assessment of flood hazard during extreme sea levels in a tidally
           dominated lagoon
    • Abstract: Abstract The inundation of coastal regions is recognized as a major threat to people, livelihoods, and the ecosystem health. The assessment of the magnitude of flooding drivers and the flood extension mapping are essential to avoid and reduce the adverse impacts of floods. Attending these issues, the present study aims to assess marine-induced inundation in Ria de Aveiro coastal lagoon under extreme sea levels induced by astronomic tide and storm surge events. The approach followed integrates joint probability analysis of residual and astronomical levels from the lagoon inlet with application of the ELCIRC hydrodynamic model, which was validated for tidal and storm surge conditions. The model is applied under extreme sea levels corresponding to 2- and 100-year return periods of storm surges combined with tidal elevation for the present mean sea level and also considering a mean sea level rise estimate of 0.42 m for both return periods. A mean spring tide was also simulated as the reference case. The maximum levels, the lagoon flooded area and the tidal prism across the lagoon main channels were analysed for all simulations. The application of joint probability analysis of residual and astronomical levels resulted in extreme sea levels between 3.85 and 4.56 m, relative to the local chart datum. The validation results evidence that model reproduces accurately both tidal and storm surge propagation. The lagoon flooded area increased between 22 and 79 % for the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively, relatively to the reference tide. The morphological lagoon features (depth of channels and topography of margins) determine the tidal prism and consequently the marginal inundation patterns found. Consequently, the more exposed regions present low altitude and are located at the margins of deeper channels.
      PubDate: 2015-02-14
  • A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the
           combination weight of game theory
    • Abstract: Abstract As a result of global warming, the occurrences of floods have increased in frequency and severity. Flooding often occurs near rivers and low-lying areas, which makes such areas higher-risk locations. Flood-risk evaluation represents an essential analytic step in preventing floods and reducing losses. However, the uncertainty and nonlinear relation between evaluation indices and risk levels are always difficult points in the evaluation process. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), an effective method for solving random, fuzzy and multi-index problems, has led to progress in understanding this relation. Thus, in this study, an assessment model based on FCE is adopted to evaluate flood risk in the Dongjiang River Basin. To correct the one-sidedness of the single weighting method, a combination weight integrating subjective weight and objective weight is adopted based on game theory. The evaluation results show that high-risk areas are mainly located in regions that include unfavorable terrain, developed industries and dense population. These high-risk areas appropriately coincide with the integrated risk zoning map and inundation areas of historical floods, proving that the evaluation model is feasible and rational. The results also can be used as references for the prevention and reduction of floods and other applications in the Dongjiang River Basin.
      PubDate: 2015-02-13
  • A spatial risk analysis of tornado-induced human injuries and fatalities
           in the USA
    • Abstract: Abstract Tornadoes are the most violent atmospheric hazards in the world in terms of human fatalities, injuries, and economic damages. The USA, especially the south and central states, faces numerous tornado disasters. However, there is a lack of good models for reliable tornado risk analysis. This research develops two spatial risk analysis models, base model and location quotient model, for the forty-eight continental US states, using a database for all tornadoes reported during 1950–2012. The models are based on state-level expected losses, standard deviations, and their corresponding state-level percentages, ranges, and ranks of tornado-induced human injuries and fatalities. The models are validated using Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlations and scatter plots for samples and population of the tornado database. The results show that the models perform well in terms of yielding consistent expected tornado risks and related measures at the state level. The models serve as good alternatives to existing models for spatial tornado risks and ranks in the USA.
      PubDate: 2015-02-13
  • Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100
    • Abstract: Abstract This investigation frames volcano disaster potentialities for the US Pacific Northwest by assessing the interaction of the region’s growing population and affiliated housing development with volcanic hazards. Changes in human and residential exposure to the hazards are measured for a period of 1940 through 2100 by employing fine-scale (100 m) historical, current, and forecast demographic data derived from a spatial allocation model. Forecast population and housing unit density data from the model are based on societal change scenarios generated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ensemble approach reveals variations and uncertainties in the future hazard exposures, illustrating an envelope of volcano disaster possibilities. The demographic data are evaluated using a three-step, worst-case, downscaling approach by first calculating possible regional impacts before measuring volcano proximal and, thereafter, local hazard consequences. Results indicate that the Northwest regional study area is forecast to experience as much as a 445 % increase in total population and 1336 % amplification in housing unit counts from 1940 to 2100. The Mount Rainier proximal and local hazard analyses reveal the greatest overall increase in the total population and housing units for the entire period of record, whereas the Glacier Peak proximal and local hazard zone are forecast to experience the greatest percentage increase in population and housing units. These findings may be used by emergency managers, land planners, insurers, decision makers, and the public to discover changes in volcanic hazard risk and exposure within their communities, as well as assess potential mitigation and sustainability options.
      PubDate: 2015-02-13
  • Vulnerability of an industrial corridor in Texas to storm surge
    • Abstract: Abstract A conceptual framework for evaluating the vulnerability of industrialized coastal regions to storm surge was developed and implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the Houston Ship Channel Industrial Corridor (HSC-IC) in Texas to storm surge. In the study, Hurricane Ike scenarios were modeled with SWAN + ADCIRC that involved changing the landfall location of the hurricane along the coast and incorporating the effect of increased wind speed. The storm surge data from the various landfall scenarios were cross-linked with geospatial and environmental data associated with facilities within the industrial region. This work uniquely combines the potential releases from storage tanks, records of past historical releases, and risk management planning to characterize environmental vulnerabilities using storage information and geospatial data. The resulting framework for vulnerability implemented within the HSC-IC found a relationship between storm surge and the total area inundated at a given storm surge level and between storm surge and the total number of storage tanks. Using the developed framework, it was possible to combine releases from storage tanks, records of past historical releases, and risk management planning to characterize environmental vulnerabilities on a facility by facility basis and for the modeled surge levels.
      PubDate: 2015-02-12
  • Predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion in the San Gabriel
           Mountains of southern California
    • Abstract: Abstract Timely hazard assessments are needed to assess post-fire debris flows that may impact communities located within and adjacent to recently burned areas. Implementing existing models for debris-flow probability and magnitude can be time-consuming because the geographic extent for applying the models is manually defined. In this study, a model is presented for predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion. This model is further calibrated to identify the geographic extent for applying post-fire hazard assessment models. Aerial photographs were used to map locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion and deposition in the San Gabriel Mountains. Terrain, burn severity, and soil characteristics expected to influence debris-flow erosion and deposition were calculated for each mapped location using 10-m resolution DEMs, GIS data for burn severity, and soil surveys. Multiple logistic regression was used to develop a model that predicts the probability of erosion as a function of channel slope, planform curvature, and the length of the longest upstream flow path. The model was validated using an independent database of mapped locations of debris-flow erosion and deposition and found to make accurate and precise predictions. The model was further calibrated by identifying the average percentage of the drainage network classified as erosion for mapped locations where debris flows transitioned from eroding to depositing material. The calibrated model provides critical information for consistent and timely application of post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment models and the ability to identify locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion.
      PubDate: 2015-02-12
  • Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response
           functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays
    • Abstract: Abstract Reliable and robust methods of extreme value-based hurricane surge prediction, such as the joint probability method (JPM), are critical in the coastal engineering profession. The JPM has become the preferred surge hazard assessment method in the USA; however, it has a high computational cost: One location can require hundreds of simulated storms and more than ten thousand computational hours to complete. Optimal sampling methods that use physics-based surge response functions (SRFs) can reduce the required number of simulations. This study extends the development of SRFs to bay interior locations at Panama City, Florida. Mean SRF root-mean-square errors for open coast and bay interior locations were 0.34 and 0.37 m, respectively, comparable with ADCIRC errors. Average uncertainty increases from open coast, and bay SRFs were 10 and 12 %, respectively. Long-term climate trends, such as rising sea levels, introduce nonstationarity into the simulated and historical surge datasets. A common approach to estimating total flood elevations is to take the sum of projected sea-level rise (SLR) and present day surge (static approach); however, this does not account for dynamic SLR effects on surge generation. This study demonstrates that SLR has a significant dynamic effect on surge in the Panama City area, and that total flood elevations, with respect to changes in SLR, are poorly characterized as static increases. A simple adjustment relating total flood elevation to present day conditions is proposed. Uncertainty contributions from these SLR adjustments are shown to be reasonable for surge hazard assessments.
      PubDate: 2015-02-12
  • Impacts of the Wenchuan earthquake on tree mortality and biomass carbon
    • Abstract: Abstract The Wenchuan earthquake caused tremendous damages to forests, which could increase tree mortality, disrupt forest carbon cycling, and pose serious challenge to sustainable forest management. In this study, we analyzed data from 871 permanent forest plots from the Sichuan forest inventory (SFI) system to quantify the impacts of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on tree mortality and forest biomass carbon. Our results showed that the 5-year tree mortality had significantly increased from 2.26 to 3.52 % in the region with seismic intensity of ≥VII (VII and above), and even more dramatically in the hardest hit zone with seismic intensity of X and XI, which showed an increase from 3.77 to 8.96 %. It is estimated that the Wenchuan earthquake had killed as much as 34.5 million trees and mobilized a dead carbon pool of 1050 Gg C (7.87 Mg C/km2/a) in the region with seismic intensity of ≥VII. Our results suggested that the earthquake was the main cause of this risen tree mortality and the loss of huge amount of forest biomass carbon. This study demonstrated that tree mortality derived from forest plots can be used to estimate disaster-induced forest carbon loss for the purpose of hazard assessment.
      PubDate: 2015-02-11
  • Extreme scour effects on the buckling of bridge piles considering the
           stress history of soft clay
    • Abstract: Abstract Scour is a natural phenomenon caused by the erosion or removal of streambed or bank material from bridge foundations due to flowing water. As the buckling capacity of bridge piles varies inversely with the square of the unsupported pile height, an extreme scour at the pile caused by floodwater could result in a buckling failure of the pile and collapse of the bridge. The common way to analyze the scour-affected buckling stability of bridge piles is to remove the scoured soil layers while possible changes in stress history of the remaining soils are ignored. In reality, however, the remaining soils undergo an unloading process due to scour, and its overconsolidation ratios are increased. In this study, an analytical model with modified lateral subgrade modulus is presented to investigate the extreme scour effect on the buckling of bridge piles in soft clay considering the stress history of the remaining soils. A case study is used to compare the calculated results by considering and ignoring the stress history effect. The results show that ignoring the stress history of the soft clay will overestimate the buckling capacity of bridge pile foundation under scour.
      PubDate: 2015-02-10
  • Numerical simulation of 3D liquefaction disasters using an automatic time
           stepping method
    • Abstract: Abstract Three-dimensional numerical simulation of large model under seismic loading is a time-consuming process due to the huge number of degrees and the duration of time. With respect to the uniform time stepping method, an automatic time stepping strategy is proposed based on a finite element–finite difference coupled scheme and an effective mixed error estimation of the solid–fluid mixture. Two seismic liquefaction examples are conducted, one is a three-dimensional embankment located in liquefied area, and the other is a three-dimensional caisson wharf subjected to the seismic load. The results show that the liquefaction induces large displacement to the embankment and caisson wharf; the proposed automatic time stepping method can save 17–24 % computational time than the uniform time stepping method at the premises of similar accuracy.
      PubDate: 2015-02-10
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