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BIOLOGY (1322 journals)            First | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 | Last

Journal of Negative Results in BioMedicine     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Nematology     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Neuroscience and Behavioral Health     Open Access  
Journal of New Seeds     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Nucleic Acids     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Parasitology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Parasitology and Vector Biology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Pharmacological and Toxicological Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Phycology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Physics D : Applied Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Physics: Condensed Matter     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Physics: Conference Series     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Phytopathology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Plankton Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Plant Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Journal of Plasma Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Pollination Ecology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Porphyrins and Phthalocyanines     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Proteome Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Proteomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Risk Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Science of the University of Kelaniya Sri Lanka     Open Access  
Journal of Signal Transduction     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Stored Products Research     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Structural and Functional Genomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Structural Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Sustainable Bioenergy Systems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Sustainable Society     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Systematic Palaeontology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Systematics Evolution     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association     Full-text available via subscription  
Journal of the Korean Society for Applied Biological Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of the North American Benthological Society     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System     Open Access  
Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of the South Carolina Academy of Science     Open Access  
Journal of Theoretical Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Thermal Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Thyroid Research     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Tissue Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Tropical Life Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vacuum Science & Technology A     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vacuum Science & Technology B     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Vector Ecology     Free   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vegetation Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Vestibular Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Vinyl & Additive Technology     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Virological Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Virology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16)
Journal of Visualized Experiments     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Zhejiang University - Science B     Hybrid Journal  
Jurnal Penelitian Sains (JPS)     Open Access  
Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University Journal Of Natural Sciences     Open Access  
Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Kew Bulletin     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
KINOME     Open Access  
Knowledge and Management of Aquatic Ecosystems     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Koedoe : African Protected Area Conservation and Science     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Kurtziana     Open Access  
Landscape and Ecological Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Large Marine Ecosystems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Le Naturaliste canadien     Full-text available via subscription  
Letters in Mathematical Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Life     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Life : The Excitement of Biology     Full-text available via subscription  
Life Sciences, Society and Policy     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Limnological Papers     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Lipid Insights     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Lipid Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Lipids     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Lipids in Health and Disease     Open Access  
Luminescence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
mAbs     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Macromolecular Bioscience     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Macromolecular Reaction Engineering     Hybrid Journal  
Madroño     Full-text available via subscription  
Malacologia     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Malacologica Bohemoslovaca     Open Access  
Malayan Nature Journal     Open Access  
Mammal Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Mammal Study     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Mammalian Biology - Zeitschrift für Säugetierkunde     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Mammalian Genome     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Mammalian Species     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Manufacturing Engineer     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Marine Biodiversity     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Marine Biodiversity Records     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Marine Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 146)
Marine Biotechnology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Marine Mammal Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Materials Science and Engineering: C     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Mathematical Biosciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Mathematical Physics, Analysis and Geometry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Problems in Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Matrix Biology     Hybrid Journal  
Médecine Nucléaire     Full-text available via subscription  
mBio     Open Access   (Followers: 3)

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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
   Journal TOC RSS feeds Export to Zotero [206 followers]  Follow    
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
     ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
     Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2210 journals]   [SJR: 0.591]   [H-I: 40]
  • Landscape vulnerability and rehabilitation issues: a study of hydropower
           projects in Garhwal region, Himalaya
    • Abstract: Abstract The Himalaya is known for its rich biodiversity, and it supports the Indian subcontinent with wide varieties of natural resources including the life-sustaining water. Its huge potential to develop micro-hydropower projects is untapped. Large-scale multi-purpose river valley projects are not feasible as the landscape of Garhwal region is highly vulnerable—ecologically fragile, geologically unstable and tectonically and seismically active. Here, the issues of landscape vulnerability and rehabilitation, due to the construction of hydropower projects, are renowned. In Garhwal region, the hydropower projects, which have been constructed and are under construction and proposed, are located in the densely populated river valleys, where terraced arable land is also available. These areas are highly prone to atmospherically triggered hazards—debris flows, flash floods, landslides, mass movements and rockfalls. Rehabilitation of the affected population has been remaining as a major challenge in all the river valley projects from the very onset of the commencement of hydropower projects in Garhwal region. This paper examines the landscape vulnerability and rehabilitation issues related to the hydropower projects in Garhwal region, Himalaya. The author collected the data from the primary and secondary sources and from the rapid field visits of the hydropower project sites. This study reveals that only micro-level hydropower projects are feasible in the fragile landscape of the Garhwal Himalaya, keeping vulnerability and rehabilitation issues in mind.
      PubDate: 2014-09-14
  • Characterizing sudden geo-hazards in mountainous areas by D-InSAR with an
           enhancement of topographic error correction
    • Abstract: Abstract Differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (D-InSAR) has been viewed as a promising technique in monitoring sudden geo-hazards (e.g., earthquake and landslide) in mountainous areas. However, the tough natural settings (e.g., steep slopes and vegetation) pose the D-InSAR technique to face many challenges. Among them, phase residuals induced by inaccurate topographic heights that can result in intolerable error have not been paid adequate attention. We present, in this paper, a new strategy of using D-InSAR measurements to characterize sudden geo-hazards with an emphasis on the correction of topographic errors. In the proposed strategy, a least squares model with an outlier detector is constructed to estimate the topographic errors from multi-baseline wrapped differential interferograms, and the error-prone phase unwrapping procedure is not needed. The new strategy is applied to the ALOS PALSAR images acquired for monitoring a giant mudslide occurred in Zhouqu County, China. After refining the topographic height originally from the inaccurate ASTER GDEM, notable improvements to the D-InSAR measurements can be clearly seen, which is helpful to better interpret the deformation signals associated with the mudslide event. It is observed that the Zhouqu mudslide had caused large ground movements in the Luojiayu and Sanyanyu groove valleys. In addition, we find that the Suoertou landslide has been experiencing moderate ground movements during the geologic event.
      PubDate: 2014-09-14
  • Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal
           change hazard assessments
    • Abstract: Abstract Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios.
      PubDate: 2014-09-13
  • Seasonal forecasting of 2014 summer heat wave over Beijing using GRAAP and
           other statistical methods
    • Abstract: Abstract Heat waves have taken place more and more frequently in Beijing due to the rapid urban expansion since the mid-1970s, which has been greatly affecting people’s life and social production. The aim of this paper was to provide a novel process which can be employed to accurately forecast the heat waves of Beijing in 2014, and the results can be used to guide us to take measures against the heat waves in advance. Based on the available samples from Beijing Statistical Yearbook and China Meteorological Yearbook, the more effective reference samples can be selected with the novel model called Grey Relational Analysis Based on the Angle Perspective and then the forecasting results can be obtained by these selected samples and some other statistical methods, the results may be more reliable than that directly obtained from all available samples. In addition, this process can also be applied to deal with some other forecasting issues.
      PubDate: 2014-09-13
  • Ancient floods, modern hazards: the Ping River, paleofloods and the 'lost
           city' of Wiang Kum Kam
    • Abstract: Abstract This paper demonstrates that the importance of rivers in northern Thailand was anchored upon society’s dependence on them for sustenance and defense. Concurrently, rivers were also of deep religious and cultural significance. Hence, many northern Thai settlements were located near rivers. This resulted in their susceptibility to flood hazards. Our study investigates the interactions between the Ping River and the population of Wiang Kum Kam. Wiang Kum Kam was one of the former capitals of the Lanna Kingdom, a thirteenth- to sixteenth-century polity in northern Thailand. Described as the ‘Atlantis’ of the Lanna kingdom, the city was buried under flood sediments several centuries ago. Based on the floodplain sediments excavated, we argue that the city was abandoned after a large flood. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal found in the coarse sand layer deposited by the flood suggests that the deposition occurred sometime after ca. 1477 AD–1512 AD. Prior to this large flood, persisting floods in the city were noted in the Chiang Mai Chronicle and were also recorded in the floodplain stratigraphy. We show that an elongated mound on the floodplain in Wiang Kum Kam was a dyke constructed after ca. 1411 AD to alleviate the effects of persisting floods. From this story of paleofloods and Wiang Kum Kam, we conclude with two lessons for the management of modern floods in urban Thailand.
      PubDate: 2014-09-13
  • Copula-based risk assessment of drought in Yunnan province, China
    • Abstract: Yunnan is one of the provinces which had been frequently and heavily affected by drought disasters in China. Recently, large severe droughts struck Yunnan, caused considerable social, economic and ecological losses. A risk assessment of meteorological drought for Yunnan province is provided in this study. Based on the daily meteorological data of 29 stations during 1960–2010, duration and severity as two major drought characteristics, defined by the runs and the composite meteorological drought index, are abstracted from the observed drought events. Three bivariate Archimedean copulas are employed to construct the joint distributions of the drought characteristics. Based on the error analysis and tail dependence coefficient, the Gumbel–Hougaard copula is selected to analyze spatial distributions of the joint return periods of drought. The results indicate that a high risk is observed in the middle parts and the northeast parts of Yunnan province, while a relative lower drought risk is observed in the northwest of Yunnan province. The probabilistic properties can provide useful information for water resources planning and management.
      PubDate: 2014-09-13
  • Hazard assessment of rainfall-induced landslides: a case study of San
           Vicente volcano in central El Salvador
    • Abstract: Abstract The San Vicente volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano, and in recent memory, there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows. There has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these slopes and determine the factors that might lead to slope instability. Past events on the volcano were used to perform a 2D slope stability back analysis and to estimate the unknown model parameters. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength. Additionally, the analysis provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. Slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location were found to have the greatest effect on stability. A methodology is outlined for creating a stability chart to be used during rainfall events for monitoring slope stability. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make evacuation decisions. Finally, recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.
      PubDate: 2014-09-13
  • Modeling the early warning of grassland fire risk based on fuzzy logic in
           Xilingol, Inner Mongolia
    • Abstract: Abstract A fuzzy logic-based methodology modeling the early warning of risk to manage grassland fires in Inner Mongolia is presented. By establishing a membership function, this study first analyzed grassland fire hazard and vulnerability and subsequently integrated hazard and vulnerability using the fuzzy logic method to develop the Grassland Fire Risk Early Warning Index. The key parameters in the model were obtained by methods of undetermined parameters. The reliability of early warning results was demonstrated using historical grassland fires and grassland fire disasters. The results from this study are intended to support local, provincial, and national government agencies in making decisions in resource allocation, high-level planning and raising the public’s risk awareness of grassland fires.
      PubDate: 2014-09-13
  • A protocol for coordinating post-tsunami field reconnaissance efforts in
           the USA
    • Abstract: Abstract In the aftermath of a catastrophic tsunami, much is to be learned about tsunami generation and propagation, landscape and ecological changes, and the response and recovery of those affected by the disaster. Knowledge of the impacted area directly helps response and relief personnel in their efforts to reach and care for survivors and for re-establishing community services. First-hand accounts of tsunami-related impacts and consequences also help researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in other parts of the world that lack recent events to better understand and manage their own societal risks posed by tsunami threats. Conducting post-tsunami surveys and disseminating useful results to decision makers in an effective, efficient, and timely manner is difficult given the logistical issues and competing demands in a post-disaster environment. To facilitate better coordination of field-data collection and dissemination of results, a protocol for coordinating post-tsunami science surveys was developed by a multi-disciplinary group of representatives from state and federal agencies in the USA. This protocol is being incorporated into local, state, and federal post-tsunami response planning through the efforts of the Pacific Risk Management ‘Ohana, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and the U.S. National Plan for Disaster Impact Assessments. Although the protocol was designed to support a coordinated US post-tsunami response, we believe it could help inform post-disaster science surveys conducted elsewhere and further the discussion on how hazard researchers can most effectively operate in disaster environments.
      PubDate: 2014-09-12
  • A new prediction model for mining subsidence deformation: the arc tangent
           function model
    • Abstract: Abstract Ground subsidence in underground coal mining areas causes environmental damage and creates hazards on the ground surface, which is long-term, widely distributed, and can lead to large-scale geological disasters. Achieving a high-precision method to predict mining subsidence deformation is very important for assessing environmental damage and countermeasures. In this paper, based on the “S”-type settlement curves of the monitoring points in the collapsed pit and the failure mechanism of rock strata on the goaf, the arc tangent function model was proposed and applied to the Taihe coal mine in Fushun, Liaoning Province, China. Using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm for nonlinear curve fitting of the data, the parameters of the model are obtained, and extending it in time, the prediction function will be obtained. Using different monitoring data to validate the model shows that the accuracy of the medium- and short-term forecasting is very good. With continuous updating of the monitoring data, the forecasting achieves higher accuracy and the function of dynamic track forecasting is achieved. A very high correlation coefficient was obtained (0.996) using all the available data from the monitoring point for the best-fit curve. This prediction model provides a reference for the evaluation and treatment of ground subsidence in the Taihe coal mining area.
      PubDate: 2014-09-12
  • Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and
           its geodynamical implications
    • Abstract: Abstract Inter-event time series of seismic activities of Sumatra region with magnitude (m b  ≥ 4.8) and period spanning over 1973–2012 has been analyzed using the techniques of nonlinear dynamics. The earthquake data were collected from the USGS Web catalog. The rank order statistics of inter-event time series reveal mixed response with distinct breaks in slope suggesting that earthquake dynamics in this region are unstable, but “self-organized.” Comparison of return maps of the data with random, stochastic, and chaotic time records shows quasi-deterministic behavior. We assessed the dimensionality of earthquake-generating mechanism using a nonlinear predictor technique on two-dimensional phase portrait constructed by recurrence time series. The nonlinear forecasting analysis suggests that the earthquake processes in the Sumatra region evolve on a non-random low-dimensional chaotic plane. Further, second-order Kolmogorov entropy “K2” analysis revealed a coherent time structure, indicating quasi-deterministic dynamical pattern. Our result is consistent with “self-organized” processes determined by the internal dynamics, where impulsively derived interdependencies cascade through the tectonic stress generated by plate movement. However, we do not preclude the triggering role of other external processes on the coupled underlying system.
      PubDate: 2014-09-12
  • Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the
           town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China
    • Abstract: Abstract An empirical-based natural disaster risk assessment was carried out in a sub-national region of China, using the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, as the small-scale study area. Risk factors identified associated with the Typhoon Morakot rainstorm–flood event included hazard, vulnerability, and disaster loss, with the corresponding indicators being submergence depth (m), loss rate (%), and flood loss values (Yuan). As a frequent rainstorm–flood area, the maximum flood depth in Shuitou is 3.57 m, and the average loss rates for housing property and business assets reach 20 and 30 %, respectively. The average maximum loss ranges around 40,000–100,000 Yuan. The comprehensive disaster risk level depends on the respective strengths of the principal component factors. Extremely high-submersion-risk and very high-submersion-risk areas in Shuitou are found in the northwest, specifically along the GongYuan and Yuanlin roads, covering an area of 0.33 km2, about 17.65 % of study areas. This small-scale natural disaster risk assessment encapsulates the principle of “regional characteristics, case accumulation, long-term record.” The evaluation results can be used as reference for regional temporary migration program design and implementation.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • Non-structural flood risk mitigation under developing country conditions:
           an analysis on the determinants of willingness to pay for flood insurance
           in rural Pakistan
    • Abstract: Abstract The present study aims at unraveling the acceptability and potential of flood insurance as a viable mechanism to cope the financial risk associated with flood events in rural Pakistan. Moreover, the factors influencing rural households’ willingness to pay for flood insurance are also analyzed. Currently, the country faces an increasing rate of flooding due to climate change phenomenon resulting in abnormal monsoonal cycles and the melting of Himalayan glaciers in the region. The current flood management strategy of the country mainly involves ex-post relief and rehabilitation programs along with financial transfers to the flood victims from public funds without the involvement of private insurance companies. This puts enormous pressure on the public exchequer, leading to budgetary adjustments and tax escalation. Under such a scenario, flood insurance is thought to be a viable alternative to mitigate the financial risk associated with the catastrophic events like the flood that occurred in 2010. The study utilized primary level data from five districts in Pakistan to evaluate the willingness to pay for flood insurance as well as the factors affecting that willingness by using contingent valuation methodology. The results show that the acceptability of this intervention among flood victims depends on a multitude of factors such as the age of the household head, landownership, off-farm income sources and a preconception concerning the effectiveness of flood insurance. Moreover, rural families’ readiness to pay an insurance premium is not significantly influenced by perceived risk of flooding but by their financial position.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • Disaster recovery as participation: lessons from the Shaky Isles
    • Abstract: Abstract Despite broad scholarly consensus that public participation in disaster recovery is highly desirable, in practice, appropriate and effective forms of community involvement are difficult to achieve. Drawing on both non-disaster participatory planning theory and disaster recovery literature, this paper explores a possible relationship between participation in specific activities (the ‘substance’ of recovery) and participation in decision-making (the ‘processes’ framing recovery activities). This raises questions about a possible connection between ‘token’ forms of participation and a similarly ‘token’ recovery and indicates a need to better understand how ‘successful’ recoveries are measured. In addressing these questions, this paper documents some different forms of participation witnessed in Canterbury, New Zealand—the so-called Shaky Isles—following an extended earthquake sequence. I conclude that recovery as participation requires a more nuanced understanding that recognizes the co-constitutional nature of procedural and substantial aspects.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • Extremely cool summers in Central and Eastern Europe (1951–2010)
    • Abstract: Abstract The paper reports on a study of extremely cool summers (ECS), a rare but significant phenomenon responsible for various adverse economic effects. These include, in particular, effects on agriculture and the tourist industry. The seasons, their spatial extent and individual characteristics were identified in Central and Eastern Europe. The research was based on average seasonal air temperatures (June to August) and the numbers of days with maximum temperatures >25, 30 and 35 °C and minimum temperatures >20 °C, as recorded at 59 weather stations during the period 1951–2010. An ECS was defined as having an average temperature at least 2 standard deviations (t ≤ tav. − 2σ) lower than the average at a given station during the study period. ECS occurred at only 34 of the 59 stations (58 % of all stations), one or two per station, mainly in the northern part of the study area. Six such seasons were recorded by at least 5 % of all stations in 1962, 1969, 1976, 1978, 1984 and 1994. The average temperature of an ECS was typically 2–3 °C lower than the long-term average. While some ECSs included an extremely cool month, most such seasons (58 %) were defined by low temperatures persisting for long periods in all summer months.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • Mechanical behavior of a coal seam penetrated by a karst collapse pillar:
           mining-induced groundwater inrush risk
    • Abstract: Abstract A karst collapse pillar (KCP) is caused by the karst subsidence that occurs in carbonate rock distribution areas. Current KCP studies focus mainly on aspects such as the cause of formation, rule of development, groundwater inrush, and structural characteristics of the pillar and sidewall rock body. However, few existing studies focus on the influences of mining activity on the damage to KCP, its surrounding rocks, and the formation of the fracture zone, especially the mechanical behavior. In this paper, a numerical fast Lagrangian analysis of continua in three dimensions model was created to understand the mechanical state of a coal seam penetrated by a KCP during mining panel extraction. The numerical results suggest that (1) because of the structure defect, the stress field strongly depends on the mining activity, and the stress distribution varies in different parts of the KCP; (2) KCP and the surrounding rocks show dislocation when the working face passes the KCP, at which point shear failure may then occur, which will lead to a sidewall channel for groundwater inrush; and (3) as mining advances, the plastic zone in the KCP and its broken area develop gradually until the upper and lower plastic zones connect when the working face passes the KCP, which will cause a channel for groundwater inrush.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error
    • Abstract: Abstract Flood forecasting plays an essential role in enhancing the safety of residents downstream and preventing or reducing economic losses. One critical issue in flood risk assessment is the determination of the probability distribution of forecast errors. Several investigations, which have been carried out to analyze the influence of the uncertainty in real-time operation or water resources management, assumed that the relative forecast error was approximately normally distributed. This study investigates whether the flood forecast error follows the normal distribution. Several distributions were fitted to the flood error series, and their performances were analyzed using the data from Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and Muma River. Then, the most appropriate distribution was selected. Results show that the assumption of normal distribution is not justified for the flood forecast error series of TGR and Muma River. The use of normal distribution for estimating flood risk may lead to incorrect results.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • Impacts of socioeconomic factors on monthly electricity consumption of
           China’s sectors
    • Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we report eight sets of multivariate regression equations, introducing the socioeconomic factors for the estimation models of monthly electricity consumption in the primary, secondary, tertiary industry, and the household sectors, to study the quantitative effects of socioeconomic factors (electricity real price, activity level, income, holiday, etc.). The results demonstrate that the price elasticity of electricity demand in the household and the secondary industry sectors is significant. When the electricity price increases by 1 %, the demand in the household and secondary industry sectors reduces by 0.4–0.5 % with a time lag for the latter.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • Adaptation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index to Mediterranean forests
    • Abstract: Abstract The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is one of the most used tools to forecast forest fire hazard. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the FWI to take into account the Mediterranean vegetation and climate, to improve FWI performances for areas with these characteristics. In particular, the FWI has been calibrated for two Mediterranean regions (Algarve, Portugal and Peloponnese, Greece) by fitting the experimental data, collected in the field, for the forest fuel moisture content, with the values expected by the application of the original Canadian FWI. Field data were collected during the 2010 and 2011 fire seasons. The satisfactory results obtained by the adaptation of parameters from the original FWI, in spite of the small sample areas and limited time of collection, allowed us to verify the usefulness of the method in describing the fuel moisture dynamics and obtaining indexes closer to the characteristics of the Mediterranean forests considered. The adapted FWI, if further tested and extended to other sample areas, may help in a more detailed and precise application of the FWI index by improving the daily forest fire hazard forecast, to become also a better support for the Civil Protection Agency of Mediterranean countries.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
  • The emerging vulnerable population of the urbanisation resulting from
           post-disaster recovery of the Wenchuan earthquake
    • Abstract: Abstract Disaster recovery is a special driving force for urbanisation in China, and the household registration system makes the interaction between recovery and urbanisation unique and complex. During the post-Wenchuan earthquake recovery efforts, many towns and villages altered original land-use patterns to accelerate the pace of urbanisation. This process expedited the reconstruction of infrastructure and boosted regional economic development, but also resulted in changes in household registration for farmers whose land was requisitioned, creating a new series of social problems. This study examined one town in Sichuan Province as a case study to explore perceptions of the recovery process and analyse quantitatively the relationships between economic recovery level and household characteristics during the post-disaster recovery period. Based on personal interviews and 513 valid household questionnaires, the study found that: (1) households that changed their household registration during the recovery were more dissatisfied with the recovery process and their life status; (2) the economic conditions of households whose householders were between 46 and 55 years of age deteriorated significantly, which created an emerging vulnerable population; and (3) people who work away from their hometown all year were more dissatisfied with the recovery work to date. These analyses helped us visualise the interaction between post-disaster recovery and urbanisation in China, and identify and understand the vulnerable population that emerges from this process. This study indicates that there is a strong need for more flexible policies and population group-orientated regulations in post-disaster recovery.
      PubDate: 2014-09-11
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