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  Subjects -> BIOLOGY (Total: 2575 journals)
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BIOLOGY (1316 journals)            First | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 | Last

Journal of Parasitology and Vector Biology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Pharmacological and Toxicological Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Phycology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Physics D : Applied Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Physics: Condensed Matter     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Physics: Conference Series     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Phytopathology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Plankton Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Plant Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Plasma Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Pollination Ecology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Porphyrins and Phthalocyanines     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Proteome Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Proteomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Risk Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Science of the University of Kelaniya Sri Lanka     Open Access  
Journal of Signal Transduction     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Stored Products Research     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Structural and Functional Genomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Structural Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Journal of Sustainable Bioenergy Systems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Sustainable Society     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Systematic Palaeontology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Systematics Evolution     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association     Full-text available via subscription  
Journal of the Korean Society for Applied Biological Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of the North American Benthological Society     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System     Open Access  
Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of the South Carolina Academy of Science     Open Access  
Journal of Theoretical Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Thermal Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Thyroid Research     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Tissue Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Tropical Life Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vacuum Science & Technology A     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vacuum Science & Technology B     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Vector Ecology     Free   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Vegetation Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Journal of Vestibular Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Vinyl & Additive Technology     Hybrid Journal  
Journal of Virological Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Virology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16)
Journal of Visualized Experiments     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Zhejiang University - Science B     Hybrid Journal  
Jurnal Penelitian Sains (JPS)     Open Access  
Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University Journal Of Natural Sciences     Open Access  
Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Kew Bulletin     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
KINOME     Open Access  
Knowledge and Management of Aquatic Ecosystems     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Koedoe : African Protected Area Conservation and Science     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Kurtziana     Open Access  
Landscape and Ecological Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Large Marine Ecosystems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Le Naturaliste canadien     Full-text available via subscription  
Letters in Mathematical Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Life     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Life : The Excitement of Biology     Full-text available via subscription  
Life Sciences, Society and Policy     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Limnological Papers     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Lipid Insights     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Lipid Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Lipids     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Lipids in Health and Disease     Open Access  
Luminescence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
mAbs     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Macromolecular Bioscience     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Macromolecular Reaction Engineering     Hybrid Journal  
Madroño     Full-text available via subscription  
Malacologia     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Malacologica Bohemoslovaca     Open Access  
Mammal Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Mammal Study     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Mammalian Biology - Zeitschrift für Säugetierkunde     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Mammalian Genome     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Mammalian Species     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Manufacturing Engineer     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Marine Biodiversity     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Marine Biodiversity Records     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Marine Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 127)
Marine Biotechnology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Marine Mammal Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Materials Science and Engineering: C     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Materials Technology: Advanced Performance Materials     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Mathematical Biosciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Mathematical Physics, Analysis and Geometry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mathematical Problems in Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Matrix Biology     Hybrid Journal  
Médecine Nucléaire     Full-text available via subscription  
mBio     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Mechanisms of Ageing and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mechanisms of Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
médecine/sciences     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Medical and Biological Engineering and Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Medical and Biological Sciences     Open Access  
Medical Engineering & Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)

  First | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 | Last

Journal Cover Natural Hazards
   [179 followers]  Follow    
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
     ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
     Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2209 journals]   [SJR: 0.591]   [H-I: 40]
  • Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model’s
           open-source software for seismic risk assessment
    • Abstract: Abstract The Global Earthquake Model aims to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, global collaboration and buy-in, transparency and openness in an initiative to calculate and communicate earthquake risk worldwide. One of the first steps towards this objective has been the open-source development and release of software for seismic hazard and risk assessment called the OpenQuake engine. This software comprises a set of calculators capable of computing human or economic losses for a collection of assets, caused by a given scenario event, or by considering the probability of all possible events that might happen within a region within a certain time span. This paper provides an insight into the current status of the development of this tool and presents a comprehensive description of each calculator, with example results.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Quantitative modelling of seismic site amplification in an
           earthquake-endangered capital city: Bucharest, Romania
    • Abstract: Abstract Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, with more than 2 million inhabitants, is considered as a natural disaster hotspot by a recent global study of the World Bank and the Columbia University (Dilley M et al. Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and Columbia University, Washington, DC in 2005). Therefore, it is classified as the second metropolis in Europe, after Istanbul, subjected to important losses in the case of a destructive Vrancea earthquake with moment magnitude greater than seven. Four major earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 6.9 and 7.7 hit Bucharest in the last 68 years. The most recent destructive earthquake on March 4, 1977, with a moment magnitude of 7.4, caused about 1,500 casualties in the capital alone. All disastrous intermediate-depth earthquakes are generated within a small epicentral area—the Vrancea seismogenic region—about 150 km northeast of Bucharest. Thick unconsolidated sedimentary layers below Bucharest amplify the arriving seismic waves causing severe destruction. Ten 50-m-deep boreholes are drilled in the metropolitan area of Bucharest in order to obtain a unique, homogeneous dataset of seismic, soil-mechanic and elasto-dynamic parameters. Cores for dynamic tests were extracted, and vertical seismic profiles were performed to obtain an updated site amplification model related to earthquakes waves. The boreholes are placed near former or existing seismic station sites to allow a direct comparison and calibration of the borehole data with previous seismological measurements. A database containing geological characteristics for each sedimentary layer, geotechnical parameters measured on rock samples, P- and S wave velocity and density for each sedimentary layer is set up, as a result of previous papers with this subject. Direct data obtained by the geophysical methods in the new boreholes drilled in Bucharest City, as well as from laboratory measurements, are used as input data in the program SHAKE2000. Results are obtained in the form of spectral acceleration response, and peak acceleration in depth is computed for every site in which in situ measurements were performed. The acceleration response spectra correspond to the shear-wave amplifications due to the models of sedimentary layers down to (a) 50 m depth; (b) 70 m depth; and (c) 100 m depth. A comparison of the acceleration response spectra obtained by modelling at surface with a real signal recorded at surface is obtained in three sites, as test sites for the three depths considered, in order to calibrate the results obtained by equivalent linear method of the seismic site response.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Discovery of possible mega-thrust earthquake along the Seram Trough from
           records of 1629 tsunami in eastern Indonesian region
    • Abstract: Abstract Arthur Wichmann’s “Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago” documents several large earthquakes and tsunami throughout the Banda Arc region that can be interpreted as mega-thrust events. However, the source regions of these events are not known. One of the largest and well-documented events in the catalog is the great earthquake and tsunami affecting the Banda Islands on August 1, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15-m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after violent shaking stopped. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of uncommonly frequent seismic activity in the region that tapered off with time, which can be interpreted as aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use an inverse modeling approach to numerically reconstruct the tsunami, which constrains the likely location and magnitude of the 1629 earthquake. Only, linear numerical models are applied due to the low resolution of bathymetry in the Banda Islands and Ambon. Therefore, we apply various wave amplification factors (1.5–4) derived from simulations of recent, well-constrained tsunami to bracket the upper and lower limits of earthquake moment magnitudes for the event. The closest major earthquake sources to the Banda Islands are the Tanimbar and Seram Troughs of the Banda subduction/collision zone. Other source regions are too far away for such a short arrival time of the tsunami after shaking. Moment magnitudes predicted by the models in order to produce a 15-m tsunami are Mw of 9.8–9.2 on the Tanimbar Trough and Mw 8.8–8.2 on the Seram Trough. The arrival times of these waves are 58 min for Tanimbar Trough and 30 min for Seram Trough. The model also predicts 5-m run-up for Ambon from a Tanimbar Trough source, which is inconsistent with the historical records. Ambon is mostly shielded from a wave generated by a Seram Trough source. We conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. Only one earthquake >Mw 8.0 is recorded instrumentally from the eastern Indonesia region although high rates of strain (50–80 mm/a) are measured across the Seram section of the Banda subduction zone. Enough strain has already accumulated since the last major historical event to produce an earthquake of similar size to the 1629 event. Due to the rapid population growth in coastal areas in this region, it is imperative that the most vulnerable coastal areas prepare accordingly.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Foreword: extreme geohazards—a growing threat for a globally
           interconnected civilization
    • PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Gray swans: comparison of natural and financial hazard assessment and
           mitigation
    • Abstract: Abstract Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Tsunami hazard risk of a future volcanic eruption of Kolumbo submarine
           volcano, NE of Santorini Caldera, Greece
    • Abstract: Abstract Kolumbo submarine volcano, located NE of Santorini caldera in the Aegean Sea, has only had one recorded eruption during historic times (1650 AD). Tsunamis from this event severely impacted the east coast of Santorini with extensive flooding and loss of buildings. Recent seismic studies in the area indicate a highly active region beneath Kolumbo suggesting the potential for future eruptive activity. Multibeam mapping and remotely operated vehicle explorations of Kolumbo have led to new insights into the eruptive processes of the 1650 AD eruption and improved assessments of the mechanisms by which tsunamis were generated and how they may be produced in future events. Principal mechanisms for tsunami generation at Kolumbo include shallow submarine explosions, entrance of pyroclastic flows into the sea, collapse of rapidly accumulated pyroclastic material, and intense eruption-related seismicity that may trigger submarine slope collapse. Compared with Santorini, the magnitude of explosive eruptions from Kolumbo is likely to be much smaller but the proximity of the volcano to the eastern coast of Santorini presents significant risks even for lower magnitude events.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Occurrence and impact of characteristic earthquakes in northern Algeria
    • Abstract: Abstract Earthquakes constitute the natural hazard that is one of the main natural threats to the northern part of Algeria because of its geographical setting at the Eurasia–Africa plate boundary. Several active multi-segment reverse faults have been identified near urban areas that may rupture during characteristic earthquakes and produce earthquakes of magnitudes ≥7.0. Characteristic earthquakes are extreme seismic events characterized by long return periods, which can have great societal impact. Earthquakes in northern Algeria are destructive for two main reasons: firstly, the shallow character of the faults and secondly, the vulnerability of the building stock built essentially prior to the implementation of seismic design codes that take into account the level of the seismic hazard. That is why even moderate earthquakes are disastrous in this area.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • How big, how bad, how often: are extreme events accounted for in modern
           seismic hazard analyses'
    • Abstract: Abstract The occurrence of several recent “extreme” earthquakes with their significant loss of life and the apparent failure to have been prepared for such disasters has raised the question of whether such events are accounted for in modern seismic hazard analyses. In light of the great 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, were the questions of “how big, how bad, and how often” addressed in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) in Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone but most earthquake-prepared countries in the world' The guidance on how to properly perform PSHAs exists but may not be followed for a whole range of reasons, not all technical. One of the major emphases of these guidelines is that it must be recognized that there are significant uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes and these uncertainties need to be fully incorporated into PSHAs. If such uncertainties are properly accounted for in PSHA, extreme events can be accounted for more often than not. This is not to say that no surprises will occur. That is the nature of trying to characterize a natural process such as earthquake generation whose properties also have random (aleatory) uncertainties. It must be stressed that no PSHA is ever final because new information and data need to be continuously monitored and addressed, often requiring an updated PSHA.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Drought characterization using a new copula-based trivariate approach
    • Abstract: Abstract Meteorological drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs over various time scales and may cause significant economic, environmental and social damages. Three drought characteristics, namely duration, average severity and peak intensity, are important variables in water resources planning and decision making. This study presents a new method for construction of three-dimensional copulas to describe the joint distribution function of meteorological drought characteristics. Using the inference function for margins, the parameters for six types of copulas were tested to select the best-fitted copulas. According to the values of the log-likelihood function, Galambos, Frank and Clayton were the selected copula models to describe the dependence structure for pairs of duration–severity, severity–peak and duration–peak, respectively. Trivariate cumulative probability, conditional probability and drought return period were also investigated based on the derived copula-based joint distributions. The proposed model was evaluated over the observed data of a Qazvin synoptic station, and the results were compared with the empirical probabilities. For measuring the model accuracy, R 2, root mean square error (RMSE) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria were used. Results indicated that R 2, RMSE and NSE were equal to 0.91, 0.098 and 0.668, respectively, which demonstrate sufficient accuracy of the proposed model. Drought probabilistic characteristics can provide useful information for water resource planning and management.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely'
    • Abstract: Abstract A number of examples are presented to substantiate that submarine landslides have occurred along most continental margins and along several volcano flanks. Their properties of importance for tsunami generation (i.e. physical dimensions, acceleration, maximum velocity, mass discharge, and travel distance) can all gain extreme values compared to their subaerial counterparts. Hence, landslide tsunamis may also be extreme and have regional impact. Landslide tsunami characteristics are discussed explaining how they may exceed tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes, hence representing a significant risk even though they occur more infrequently. In fact, submarine landslides may cause potentially extreme tsunami run-up heights, which may have consequences for the design of critical infrastructure often based on unjustifiably long return periods. Giant submarine landslides are rare and related to climate changes or glacial cycles, indicating that giant submarine landslide tsunami hazard is in most regions negligible compared to earthquake tsunami hazard. Large-scale debris flows surrounding active volcanoes or submarine landslides in river deltas may be more frequent. Giant volcano flank collapses at the Canary and Hawaii Islands developed in the early stages of the history of the volcanoes, and the tsunamigenic potential of these collapses is disputed. Estimations of recurrence intervals, hazard, and uncertainties with today’s methods are discussed. It is concluded that insufficient sampling and changing conditions for landslide release are major obstacles in transporting a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) approach from earthquake to landslide tsunamis and that the more robust Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SBTHA) approach will still be most efficient to use. Finally, the needs for data acquisition and analyses, laboratory experiments, and more sophisticated numerical modelling for improved understanding and hazard assessment of landslide tsunamis are elaborated.
      PubDate: 2014-07-01
       
  • A test of transferability for landslides susceptibility models under
           extreme climatic events: application to the Messina 2009 disaster
    • Abstract: Abstract A model building strategy is tested to assess the susceptibility for extreme climatic events driven shallow landslides. In fact, extreme climatic inputs such as storms typically are very local phenomena in the Mediterranean areas, so that with the exception of recently stricken areas, the landslide inventories which are required to train any stochastic model are actually unavailable. A solution is here proposed, consisting in training a susceptibility model in a source catchment, which was implemented by applying the binary logistic regression technique, and exporting its predicting function (selected predictors regressed coefficients) in a target catchment to predict its landslide distribution. To test the method, we exploit the disaster that occurred in the Messina area (southern Italy) on 1 October 2009 where, following a 250-mm/8-h storm, approximately two thousand debris flow/debris avalanches landslides in an area of 21 km2 triggered, killing 37 people and injuring more than 100, and causing 0.5 M € worth of structural damage. The debris flows and debris avalanches phenomena involved the thin weathered mantle of the Varisican low to high-grade metamorphic rocks that outcrop in the eastern slopes of the Peloritani Mounts. Two 10-km2-wide stream catchments, which are located inside the storm core area, were exploited: susceptibility models trained in the Briga catchment were tested when exported to predict the landslides distribution in the Giampilieri catchment. The prediction performance (based on goodness of fit, prediction skill, accuracy and precision assessment) of the exported model was then compared with that of a model prepared in the Giampilieri catchment exploiting its landslide inventory. The results demonstrate that the landslide scenario observed in the Giampilieri catchment can be predicted with the same high performance without knowing its landslide distribution: we obtained, in fact, a very poor decrease in predictive performance when comparing the exported model to the native random partition-based model.
      PubDate: 2014-06-27
       
  • Explanation of liquefaction in after shock of the 2011 great east Japan
           earthquake using numerical analysis
    • Abstract: Abstract During the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, severe liquefaction occurred in reclaimed ground in Urayasu city, Chiba prefecture. This liquefaction provided important lessons for us to re-recognize the liquefaction mechanism. A distinct feature of the liquefaction in this earthquake is that severe liquefaction happened not only in the main shock but also in an aftershock with a maximum acceleration of 25 gal. In some areas, liquefaction happened in the aftershock is even more serious than that happened in the main shock. In this paper, focus is placed on the characteristic features in the occurrence of liquefaction and consequent ground settlement. Based on the observed data, a series of dynamic–static analyses, considering not only the earthquake loading but also static loading during the consolidation after the earthquake shocks, are conducted in a sequential way just the same as the scenario in the earthquake. The calculation is conducted with 3D soil–water coupling finite element–finite difference analyses based on a cyclic elasto-plastic constitutive model. From the results of analyses, it is recognized that small sequential earthquakes, which cannot cause liquefaction of a ground in an independent earthquake vibration, cannot be neglected when the ground has already experienced liquefaction after a major vibration. In addition, the aftershock has great influence on the long-term settlement of low permeability soil layer. The observed and predicted liquefaction and settlements are compared and discussed carefully. It is confirmed that the numerical method used in this study can describe the ground behavior correctly under repeated earthquake shocks.
      PubDate: 2014-06-27
       
  • The Exxon and BP oil spills: a comparison of psychosocial impacts
    • Abstract: Abstract We address the research question: ‘Did the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill have similar psychosocial impacts as the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill'’ We answer this question by comparing survey results from a random sample of Cordova, Alaska, residents collected 18 months after the Exxon spill with a random sample of residents in the Alabama coastal counties of Baldwin and south Mobile 1 year after the BP disaster. Analysis revealed similarly high levels of psychological stress for survivors of both disasters. For residents of coastal Alabama, the strongest predictors of psychosocial stress were exposure to oil, ties to renewable resources, concerns about their economic future, worries about air quality, and safety issues regarding seafood harvests in oiled areas. Differences between south Mobile and Baldwin counties were related to the former community’s economic ties to renewable resources and Baldwin County’s dependence on tourism for economic sustainability.
      PubDate: 2014-06-25
       
  • Impact of period and timescale of FDDA analysis nudging on the numerical
           simulation of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
    • Abstract: Abstract In this study, the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) analysis nudging is examined on the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal to determine the optimum period and timescale of nudging. Six TCs (SIDR: November 13–16, 2007; NARGIS: April 29–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008; AILA: May 23–26, 2009; LAILA: May 18–21, 2010; JAL: November 04–07, 2010) were simulated with a doubly nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km in the inner domain. In the control run for each cyclone, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts at 0.5° resolution are used for initial and boundary conditions. In the FDDA experiments available surface, upper air observations obtained from NCEP Atmospheric Data Project (ADP) data sets were used for assimilation after merging with the first guess through objective analysis procedure. Analysis nudging experiments with different nudging periods (6, 12, 18, and 24 h) indicated a period of 18 or 24 h of nudging during the pre-forecast stage provides maximum impact on simulations in terms of minimum track and intensity forecasts. To determine the optimum timescale of nudging, two cyclone cases (NARGIS: April 28–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008) were simulated varying the inverse timescales as 1.0e−4 to 5.0e−4 s−1 in steps of 1.0e−4 s−1. A positive impact of assimilation is found on the simulated characteristics with a nudging coefficient of either 3.0e−4 or 4.0e−4 s−1 which corresponds to a timescale of about 1 h for nudging dynamic (u,v) and thermodynamical (t,q) fields.
      PubDate: 2014-06-22
       
  • Earthquake hazard of dams along the Mekong mainstream
    • Abstract: Abstract In this study, the earthquake hazard was evaluated for all of 19 of the proposed or built dams along the Mekong River. All values representing a potential indication of hazardous earthquakes, such as the closest earthquake and seismogenic faults and including the seismic parameters required for a seismic safety evaluation, were clarified. The results will be useful in reviewing the safety of existing dams and for the design of suitable earthquake resistant specifications for any currently or future planned dam construction in this area. Seismotectonically, 14 of the 19 proposed Mekong River dams are located within an earthquake source zone. Most of faults are potentially still active, according to both seismicity and paleoseismological evidence. In addition, the maximum credible earthquakes were estimated to be in the range of 7–8 Mw for the closest fault zone of each dam. Previous isoseismal maps indicated a risk of shaking intensities of around scale III–IV (Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) for the dams. According to the preliminary ranging of the International Commission on Large Dams, 9 of these 19 dams are classified as in an extreme hazard class and so need careful observation and monitoring of hazardous earthquakes. An effective mitigation plan should also be prepared for each operating dam.
      PubDate: 2014-06-21
       
  • Erratum to: Assessing response behaviour of debris-flows affected
           communities in Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    • PubDate: 2014-06-21
       
  • Wind tunnel test of snow loads on a stepped flat roof using different
           granular materials
    • Abstract: Abstract An accurate prediction of wind-induced redistribution of snow load on roof surfaces is vital to structural design. To represent the pattern of snow distribution caused by snowdrift in wind tunnel test, appropriate modeling particles should be selected. The particle density is the key to determine the values of several important similarity parameters. In this study, the redistribution of snow load on a stepped flat roof was simulated by means of wind tunnel test using low-density saw wood ash, medium-density polyfoam, and high-density silica sand, respectively. To ensure the comparability of the test results of the three modeling particles, the wind tunnel test results for comparison were performed under almost the same conditions of dimensionless wind velocity and dimensionless time. Then, the results of the present study were compared with those from field observations of prototypes in previous studies. The effects of wind duration, wind velocity, and roof span on the redistribution of snow on roof surfaces were investigated. The characteristics of erosion/deposition range and the location of maximum quantities of erosion/deposition under independent effects of wind duration, wind velocity, and roof span were also studied.
      PubDate: 2014-06-21
       
  • Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Phetchabun and Krabi
           provinces, Thailand
    • Abstract: Abstract Shallow landslides are a common type of rainfall-induced landslide, and various methods are currently used to predict their occurrence on a regional scale. Physically based models, such as the shallow landslide instability prediction (SLIP) model, have many advantages because these models can assess the hazards of shallow landslides dynamically, based on physical stability equations that consider rainfall as a triggering factor. The main objective of this research is to test the SLIP model’s potential to predict shallow landslide hazards in Thailand. To achieve this goal, the SLIP model was applied to two massive landslide events in Thailand. The results predicted by the SLIP model for the two study areas are outlined, and the model prediction capabilities were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic plot. The Phetchabun results showed that the western part of the catchment had the lowest factor of safety (F S) value, whereas the Krabi results showed that the slopes surrounding the peak of Khao Panom Mountain had the lowest F S value, explaining the highest potentials for shallow landslides in each area. The SLIP model showed good performance: The global accuracies were 0.828 for the Phetchabun area and 0.824 for the Krabi area. The SLIP model predicted the daily time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the analyzed periods. The SLIP model simulated a negligible percentage of unstable areas over all considered periods, except for expected dates, suggesting that the prediction capability is reasonably accurate.
      PubDate: 2014-06-20
       
  • Lessons learned from two case histories of seismic microzonation in Italy
    • Abstract: Abstract The prediction of the variability of the seismic ground motion in a given built-up area is considered an effective tool to plan appropriate urban development, to undertake actions on seismic risk mitigation and to understand the damage pattern caused by a strong-motion event. The procedures for studying the seismic response and the seismic microzonation of an urban area are well established; nevertheless, some controversial points still exists and are discussed here. In this paper, the selection of a reference input motion, the construction of a subsoil model and the seismic response analysis procedures are discussed in detail, based on the authors’ experience in two Italian case histories: the seismic microzonation of the city of Benevento, which was a predictive study, and the simulation of seismic response and damage distribution in the village of San Giuliano di Puglia, which was a retrospective analysis.
      PubDate: 2014-06-20
       
  • Quantification of loss and gain in performance using survey data: a study
           of earthquake-induced damage and restoration of residential buildings
    • Abstract: Abstract This paper presents a method to assess and quantify changes in performance states of systems. The method is based on survey data containing performance states graded in a suitable scale. The changes in performance states are modelled using an association matrix obtained as a frequency table of measured performance states before and after an influential incident. Performance deviation, for both negative effects induced by a harmful incident and positive effects due to a constructive incident, is modelled. Relative change in performance is quantified by defining loss and gain matrices. Hadamard products of loss/gain matrices and the association matrix obtained from survey data are used to quantify performance deviation matrices. Finally, the overall change in performance is defined in terms of a performance deviation index, which is obtained by using the sum of the elements of performance deviation matrices. This index can be negative, zero or positive, and its value represents the degree of change in performance. A negative index indicates loss in performance; a zero index implies no measurable change, and a positive index means a gain in performance. An example application of the presented methodology for earthquake-induced damage and the subsequent restoration of residential buildings in South Iceland is presented.
      PubDate: 2014-06-20
       
 
 
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