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Journal Cover Natural Hazards
  [SJR: 0.851]   [H-I: 60]   [163 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2336 journals]
  • Economics of climate change and risk of disasters in Asia–Pacific
    • Authors: Yi-Ming Wei; Ke Wang; Hua Liao; Hirokazu Tatano
      Pages: 1 - 5
      PubDate: 2016-10-07
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2590-8
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Natural disasters in the Pacific Island Countries: new measurements of
    • Authors: Ilan Noy
      Pages: 7 - 18
      Abstract: Abstract We tabulate and measure the burden of disasters on the Pacific Island Countries in three ways. We start by aggregating and comparing the data found in the two global public datasets on disaster impacts. We show that the most commonly used dataset, EMDAT, greatly underestimates the burden of disasters on the Pacific Islands. Next, we describe a new index that aggregates disparate disaster impacts, and calculate this index for each Pacific Island Country. We finish by comparing the burden of disasters on the island countries of the Pacific with the island countries of the Caribbean. This comparison demonstrates quite clearly that the burden of disasters is significantly more acute in the Pacific.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1957-6
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm
           surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit
    • Authors: Xinyu Jiang; Nobuhito Mori; Hirokazu Tatano; Lijiao Yang; Yoko Shibutani
      Pages: 35 - 49
      Abstract: Abstract This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2085-z
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Mapping tropical forest vegetation from Landsat TM images based on fusion
           of knowledge and geo-data
    • Authors: Cunjian Yang; He Huang
      Pages: 51 - 61
      Abstract: Abstract Tropical forests play a crucial role in the function of our planet and in the maintenance of life. Tropical forest vegetation maps are very important for managing tropical forests. Mapping tropical forest vegetation only by spectral-based remote sensing techniques has proven to be problematic. The objective of the study is to develop a rule-based model to identify different forest types using Landsat TM images and GIS. In this paper, we developed the rule-based model to identify different forest types in Xishuangbanna, P.R. of China, using two temporal Landsat TM images and geo-data such as DEM, rainfall and temperature. The results show that the method put forward is useful and effective in tropical forest vegetation mapping, which can effectively integrate multi-knowledge and multi-resource data to identify the tropical forest vegetation types with higher accuracy.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1919-z
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Hierarchy evaluation of water resources vulnerability under climate change
           in Beijing, China
    • Authors: Xiao-Hua Yang; Bo-Yang Sun; Jian Zhang; Mei-Shui Li; Jun He; Yi-Ming Wei; Yu-Qi Li
      Pages: 63 - 76
      Abstract: Abstract Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1932-2
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Effects of gas pricing reform on China’s price level and total
    • Authors: Zhishuang Zhu; Huaming Zhang; Gege Tao; Feng Yu
      Pages: 167 - 178
      Abstract: Abstract Natural gas plays an important role in the mitigation of climate change, yet its development is constrained by the current natural gas pricing mechanism in China. In the context of the natural gas pricing reform, this paper analyzes the potential effects on price level and total output. Through the input–output model, some conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The gas pricing reform has relatively great impact on the products’ price of the sectors that have large gas consumption, such as industrial sectors and some service sectors, and on the total output of the gas production and supply sectors and the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, whereas the reform has relatively small impact on other industries; (2) effects of gas pricing reform on urban and rural residents are dissymmetrical, with larger effects on urban residents and (3) the reform has relatively small impacts on both various price indices and total output levels; thus, the government can realize the promotion of gas pricing reform nationwide at a cost of relatively small increase in general price level and little lose of total output.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1884-6
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Carbon emission mitigation through regulatory policies and operations
           adaptation in supply chains: theoretic developments and extensions
    • Authors: Longfei He; Chenglin Hu; Daozhi Zhao; Haili Lu; Xiaoxi Fu; Yiyu Li
      Pages: 179 - 207
      Abstract: Abstract Along with carbon emission regulations launched by governments and consumers’ rising concerns about climate changes and global carbon footprint, interests of academia and industry have risen in carbon-efficient supply chain management. This research focuses on some product supply chain to make a literature review-based investigation on proposing a theoretical framework. We also solve potential research issues of how diverse carbon emission regulations can work on supply chain performance as well as emission; in what way we can find coordination mechanisms and optimal policies for supply chain operations to abate emission and enhance system profitability within different scenarios; and also to evaluate the effect on emission reduction for each emission regulation aforementioned through comparing their associated supply chain performances and system emission. Both practitioners in industry and academia might find this study useful, as it generates concepts with a formal framework of potential and values theoretical issues in the emerging field of carbon-efficient supply chain management which combines carbon emission regulations with mature operation management to enrich the theory of supply chain management. This study is perhaps to be valuable and constructive both for operational decisions in firms and for the enactment as well as implementation of emission-reduction regulations. This study should activate further potential researches.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2273-5
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Regional operational and environmental performance evaluation in China:
           non-radial DEA methodology under natural and managerial disposability
    • Authors: Malin Song; Guijun Zhang; Kuangnan Fang; Jing Zhang
      Pages: 243 - 265
      Abstract: Abstract In this article, we used a non-radial DEA under natural and managerial disposability to measure the unified efficiency of 30 administrative regions in China and then evaluated their operational and environmental performances. We proposed the performance progress unified index (PPUI) based on the non-radial DEA methodology in a time horizon under natural and managerial disposability with a crossover to measure the performance variety of DMUs. The results of the unified efficiency measured under natural and managerial disposability showed that both operational and environmental performance in eastern China were the highest among the three regions during 2000–2011. The PPUIs under natural and managerial disposability indicated that the operational and environmental performance of the three regions improved during 2000–2011, and the rate of operational and environmental performance of eastern China was higher than the other two regions.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1933-1
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Decomposition analysis of factors driving CO 2 emissions in Chinese
           provinces based on production-theoretical decomposition analysis
    • Authors: Liyun Chen; Qi Duan
      Pages: 267 - 277
      Abstract: Abstract Using a production-theoretical decomposition analysis, this study evaluated the driving factors impacting CO2 emissions between 2001 and 2010 in 28 provinces in China. Factors were decomposed into six indicators: scale effect, technical efficiency, technological progress, change in carbon emission intensity, change in inputs, and change in output structure. The results showed that changes in scale effect and change in inputs were the main factors driving CO2 emissions growth. Conversely, technical efficiency, technological progress, and change in output structure inhibited CO2 emission growth. Change in carbon emission intensity had little effect on CO2 emission growth.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2313-1
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Impact of household expenditures on CO 2 emissions in China:
           Income-determined or lifestyle-driven'
    • Authors: Qian Wang; Qiao-Mei Liang; Bing Wang; Fang-Xun Zhong
      Pages: 353 - 379
      Abstract: Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between household expenditure and CO2 emissions among different income groups of urban and rural households in China. Having employed the 2007 Social Accounting Matrix of China, this study examines the direct and indirect CO2 emissions caused by household demand. The results show that within both urban and rural households, the higher the income level is, the higher the per capita emissions are; the CO2 emissions per unit expenditure due to savings and taxes are generally much larger than those from consumption of goods and services; and these emissions per unit consumption expenditures mainly come from indirect emissions. To deeply explore the relationships between consumption patterns and CO2 emissions, two scenarios are established to eliminate the differences in income level and consumption propensity among different groups step by step. Main results indicate that (1) the income gap is the primary cause of the significant differences in emission levels among each group; (2) the difference in consumption propensity is also a notable reason; and (3) the rural higher income groups spend a larger share of their income on those carbon-intensive goods (e.g., electricity, transportation, energy products), thus making their consumption patterns more carbon-intensive, while for the urban, the consumption patterns of lower income groups are more carbon-intensive. Finally, policy recommendations on the reduction of household emissions are also made.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2067-1
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Indirect carbon emissions from household consumption between China and the
           USA: based on an input–output model
    • Authors: Xiao-Wei Ma; Jia Du; Meng-Ying Zhang; Yi Ye
      Pages: 399 - 410
      Abstract: Abstract Based on an input–output model, this paper calculates carbon emissions from household energy consumption in 2002, 2005, 2007, and 2010 between China and the USA. By a comparative analysis of the two countries, the results indicate the following: (1) In terms of the total household indirect carbon emissions, the USA has always been at a higher level than China. However, in recent years, China has presented a rapidly rising trend. In contrast, the USA appears to be experiencing a downward trend. (2) Indirect carbon emissions from USA household consumption mainly focus on Residence; Education, Culture, and Recreation; and Transport and Communications. By comparison, residence accounts for 50 % of China’s household indirect carbon emissions, and seven other sectors are much less than the USA (3) Although the number of China’s household facilities is growing rapidly, the carbon emissions remain at a relatively steady level. (4) In terms of the absolute value of the indirect carbon emissions from housing, the USA maintains a steady 400 million ton, while China increased from 150 to 500 million ton over 2002–2010.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2508-5
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. S1 (2016)
  • Modeling urban floods and drainage using SWMM and MIKE URBAN: a case study
    • Authors: Deepak Singh Bisht; Chandranath Chatterjee; Shivani Kalakoti; Pawan Upadhyay; Manaswinee Sahoo; Ambarnil Panda
      Pages: 749 - 776
      Abstract: Abstract To avoid the nuisance of frequent flooding during rainy season, designing an efficient stormwater drainage system has become the need of the hour for present world engineers and urban planners. The present case study deals with providing a solution to stormwater management problem in an urbanized area. Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests are used to perform the trend analysis of rainfall events using daily rainfall data (1956–2012), while the L-moments-based frequency analysis method is employed to estimate the design storm for a small urbanized area in West Bengal, India, using daily annual maximum rainfall (1975–2013). SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) and MIKE URBAN models are used to design an efficient drainage system for the study area. Two-dimensional (2D) MIKE URBAN model is primarily used to overcome the limitation of one-dimensional (1D) SWMM in simulating flood extent and flood inundation. Model simulation results from MIKE URBAN are shown for an extreme rainfall event of July 29, 2013. A multi-purpose detention pond is also designed for groundwater recharge and attenuating the peak of outflow hydrograph at the downstream end during high-intensity rainfall. This study provides an insight into the importance of 2D model to deal with location-specific flooding problems.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2455-1
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • Accounting for spatial correlation in tsunami evacuation destination
           choice: a case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake
    • Authors: Giancarlos Troncoso Parady; Eiji Hato
      Pages: 797 - 807
      Abstract: Abstract This article analyzes the tsunami evacuation destination choice process, using as a case study the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, it sheds some light on the choice mechanism behind tsunami evacuation destination choice, an understudied aspect of the evacuation process. Second, and from a theoretical perspective, it addresses the issue of spatial correlation in discrete choice models. A spatially correlated logit model is estimated, where the allocation parameter is specified as a function of proximity and inter-zone altitude difference to capture more adequately unobserved similarities among alternatives in the specific context of tsunami evacuation.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2457-z
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • Inter-seasonal variability of internal tides in the western Bay of Bengal
    • Authors: Himansu K. Pradhan; A. D. Rao; Sachiko Mohanty
      Pages: 809 - 820
      Abstract: Abstract MITgcm is configured in a realistic situation to study the inter-seasonal variability of internal waves (IWs) in the western Bay of Bengal. Monthly climatology of the density fields from WOA09, modified ETOPO2 topography and barotropic tidal forcing are feed to the model for simulating IWs. The preliminary objective of the study is to identify IWs through the stratification and topographic configuration that support IWs. In this context numerical experiments are performed for January, April, July and October representing the winter, pre-monsoon, summer monsoon and post-monsoon, respectively, and analyses are made extensively over the western Bay of Bengal. Mixing caused by density overturning and shear instability is studied at the Gopalpur cross section for all seasons. The density time series are subjected to spectral analysis to find the energy associated with IWs of semi-diurnal frequency. Analysis depicts that the spectral estimates are high in the concave coastline pockets in the southern part and over a broader region on the shelf slope in the northern part. October shows higher estimates in response to highly stratified waters. Several cross sections are analyzed to obtain the spectral energy extent over the shelf slope. It is noticed in October that the peak estimate is within the shelf for shelf angles greater than 0.12° and it falls outside the shelf for shelf angles less than 0.12°.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2459-x
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • Novel method of boundary condition of dam-break phenomena using
           ghost-particle SPH
    • Authors: Behnam Parmas; Hamid Reza Vosoughifar
      Pages: 897 - 910
      Abstract: Abstract The smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a Lagrangian method effective in the simulation of free surface flows. In this paper, the evolution of dam break with dry bed was modeled through the SPH. First, the basis of the SPH was reviewed, including techniques essential for representing the equations concerning the problem. In this modeling, a new approach known as leapfrog was employed for the time step scheme, thus improving the results of modeling. The results of PVS-break model implemented in MATLAB were validated versus experimental results. The shape of waves generated indicated good compatibility with experimental modeling. The results of Mann–Whitney test revealed that there was no significant difference between the waves generated from PVS-break and the experimental models (P value ≥ 0.05). The results of this model as compared with those of other studies suggested that the current model is very powerful given the techniques employed in the numerical modeling of dam break.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2463-1
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • Empirical analysis of volunteer convergence following the 2011 tornado
           disaster in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
    • Authors: Emmett J. Lodree; Lauren B. Davis
      Pages: 1109 - 1135
      Abstract: Abstract Volunteer convergence refers to the mass movement of volunteers toward affected areas following disaster events. Emergency management professionals sometimes refer to volunteer convergence as “the disaster within the disaster,” which is an indicator of the tremendous challenge that managing the post-disaster influx of spontaneous volunteers presents. In order to develop effective strategies for managing volunteer convergence, it is imperative that emergency managers and coordinators understand the nature of convergence from a quantitative perspective. This paper presents a case study of volunteer convergence following the April 2011 tornado disaster in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and represents the first academic study to rigorously analyze volunteer convergence data. Specifically, we characterize selected stochastic variables that are relevant to volunteer task assignment within the context of a disaster relief warehouse environment using data collected during tornado relief efforts in May 2011. Time series analysis and a hierarchical clustering method based on the Kruskal–Wallis test revealed both non-stationarity and non-homogeneity in the data with respect to time of day, day of the week, and number of weeks past the disaster event. We also discuss the implications of our findings with respect to modeling relief center convergence as a queuing system.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2477-8
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • Application of foam–gel technology for suppressing coal spontaneous
           combustion in coal mines
    • Authors: Wanxing Ren; Qing Guo; Zhenfeng Wang
      Pages: 1207 - 1218
      Abstract: Abstract Coal spontaneous combustion in coal mines is an extremely destructive disaster that threatens the safety of workers in the mining process. To overcome the shortcomings of existing technologies and improve the efficiency of mine fire control, a foam–gel technique was developed. The foam–gel can capture more than 90 % of water while also covering dangerous areas in all directions in goaf based on the diffusion and stacking behavior of foam. In this paper, the details of this technique are introduced, including the foam–gel formation mechanism and production process as well as the features of foam–gel technology. This technique has been applied in many coal mines, and its application at the 72,205 underground working face at San Hejian Coal Mine belonging to Xuzhou Mining Group in Jiangsu Province, China, is presented as an example. The application process is described in detail. The application results show that this new technique has a remarkable ability to suppress coal spontaneous combustion in underground coal mines.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2499-2
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • A new crowdsourcing model to assess disaster using microblog data in
           typhoon Haiyan
    • Authors: Qing Deng; Yi Liu; Hui Zhang; Xiaolong Deng; Yefeng Ma
      Pages: 1241 - 1256
      Abstract: Abstract Risk prediction and damage assessment play critical roles in disaster response to reduce losses. Social media can serve as crowdsourcing platforms for disaster information dissemination and data mining. Using typhoon Haiyan as an example, a close relationship between social media and disaster damage estimation is demonstrated, which provides a new perspective for disaster preparedness and response. Based on disaster-related social media data, a new index model is developed for situation awareness and damage assessment before, during, and after disasters. The difference between the new index model and traditional ones is that the new index is extracted from microblogs using semantic analysis method. The score of each index is determined by the emergency management experts. The weight is calculated based on TF-IDF method, a classical term frequency weight method. Based on the new index model, quantitative assessment is added to qualitative analysis. The assessment result is consistent with actual situation, which underlines the feasibility of implementation of the new model.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2484-9
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • Potential effects of climate changes on soil–atmosphere interaction
           and landslide hazard
    • Authors: Guido Rianna; Luca Comegna; Paola Mercogliano; Luciano Picarelli
      Pages: 1487 - 1499
      Abstract: Abstract In the recent years, the scientific community is involved in an intense debate around the effects of global warming. In fact, this could determine valuable changes in atmospheric forcing that govern the soil–atmosphere interaction and, in turn, water budget in the subsoil, with unpredictable consequences, inter alia, on geohydrological hazards. An early and proper assessment of the magnitude of such phenomena would be of great importance in establishing the priorities and timing in adaptation strategies. The paper reports some results obtained through a simulation chain which accounts for the potential climatic changes induced by two different socioeconomic concentration scenarios in atmospheric forcing and consequent changes in soil moisture and, then, slope response. The analyses concern a site located in Southern Italy, representative of Mediterranean area, deemed an “hot spot” for future climate changes. It is shown that, beyond the variations induced by climate changes, soil nature and land cover could play a major role.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2481-z
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
  • Types of water hazards in China coalmines and regional characteristics
    • Authors: Herong Gui; Manli Lin
      Pages: 1501 - 1512
      Abstract: Abstract In China, coal-forming period spans extensively in time and space, creating complex geological and hydrogeological conditions. The difficulties in water hazards control are rarely seen elsewhere in the world. To provide an effective engineering approach to water hazards control, this article puts forward a categorization of 30 commonly seen water hazards based on factors such as types of water sources and conductors with factual records of water hazards and accidents in China coalmines. Furthermore, on account of the coal storing conditions in the coalmining areas, this article has outlined six water hazards zones with emphasis on the types of water hazards requiring precautions, as well as an analysis on formation mechanisms of each water hazard and key technological points for preventive engineering. This article is aimed to provide references for countries and regions with intensive coalmining needs and to facilitate experience sharing.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2488-5
      Issue No: Vol. 84, No. 2 (2016)
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
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Fax: +00 44 (0)131 4513327
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