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  Subjects -> SOCIAL SERVICES AND WELFARE (Total: 196 journals)
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Journal Cover Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
  [SJR: 1.164]   [H-I: 64]   [29 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 0002-7162 - ISSN (Online) 1552-3349
   Published by Sage Publications Homepage  [852 journals]
  • The Decline of the American Family: Can Anything Be Done to Stop the
    • Authors: Haskins, R; Sawhill, I. V.
      Pages: 8 - 34
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216663129
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • Elections in America
    • Authors: Bartels; L. M.
      Pages: 36 - 49
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216662035
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • The Electoral Landscape of 2016
    • Authors: Sides, J; Tesler, M, Vavreck, L.
      Pages: 50 - 71
      Abstract: As 2015 got underway, most Americans were poised for another Bush vs. Clinton presidential election, but by the middle of the year it was clear something unexpected was unfolding in the race for the White House. In this article, we illuminate the political landscape heading into the 2016 election, paying special attention to the public’s mood, their assessments of government, their attitudes about race and members of the other party, and the health of the nation’s economy. Fundamental predictors of election outcomes did not clearly favor either side, but an increasing ethnic diversity in the electorate, alongside a racially polarized electorate, was favorable to Democrats. Ultimately, an ambivalent electorate divided by party and race set the stage for a presidential primary that played directly on these divisions, and for a general election whose outcome initially appeared far from certain.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216658922
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • The Obama Legacy and the Future of Partisan Conflict: Demographic Change
           and Generational Imprinting
    • Authors: Jacobson; G. C.
      Pages: 72 - 91
      Abstract: Past research has shown that the perceived successes or failures of presidents have a durable influence on the partisan leanings and political attitudes of people who come of political age during their administrations. Here, I examine data from 344 Gallup surveys with a total of 399,755 respondents interviewed during the Obama presidency to (1) document the extent to which generational imprinting is visible among citizens and demographic subgroups in their party identification and ideology, (2) determine how the political identities and ideologies of people who have come of age during Obama’s presidency have evolved compared with those of earlier presidential generations, (3) explore the implications of the population’s changing demographic makeup and the political attitudes expressed by younger age cohorts for the future partisan balance of the American electorate, and (4) consider how the competition to succeed Obama is likely to affect partisan identities forged during his administration.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216658425
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • Back to the Future? What the Politics of the Late Nineteenth Century Can
           Tell Us about the 2016 Election
    • Authors: Azari, J; Hetherington, M. J.
      Pages: 92 - 109
      Abstract: The politics and party system of the late Civil War era are strikingly similar to what we have in the present day. Elections were consistently close; race, culture, immigration, and populism were salient issues; and states almost always voted for the same party in election after election. The states that supported Democrats then, however, mostly support Republicans now, and vice versa. In 1896, though, a new party system began to emerge. In this article, we evaluate bygone elections alongside contemporary ones to assess whether 2016 might be the beginning of something new in American electoral politics. Are national politics likely to follow the familiar pattern of the last four presidential races, or are Americans going to be presented altogether different choices? Our analysis suggests that race and populism are guideposts for potential change in 2016: if the concerns of race continue to define political conflict, the electoral map should change little, but if economic populism eclipses race as it did in 1896, a new political era may be ushered in in America.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216662604
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • What The Heck Are We Doing in Ottumwa, Anyway? Presidential Candidate
           Visits and Their Political Consequence
    • Authors: Wood; T.
      Pages: 110 - 125
      Abstract: This article investigates the purpose and effects of presidential campaign visits. I recount common strategic rationales for rallies, town hall meetings, impromptu conversations, and the like, and then show how candidate visits are geographically assigned. I also investigate the impact of campaign visits, finding that while state-level political factors influence the location of visits, the visits themselves have little effect on local media markets. Finally, a bespoke survey is used to measure visits’ influence on visited and unvisited respondents in the closing stages of the 2012 presidential election: respondents are shown to have little knowledge about candidate visits, and the visits themselves have only a small and evanescent effect on voter intentions.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216661488
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • Ideologically Extreme Candidates in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2012
    • Authors: Cohen, M; McGrath, M. C, Aronow, P, Zaller, J.
      Pages: 126 - 142
      Abstract: Scholars routinely cite the landslide defeats of Barry Goldwater and George McGovern as evidence that American electorates punish extremism in presidential politics. Yet systematic evidence for this view is thin. In this article we use postwar election outcomes to assess the electoral effects of extremism. In testing ten models over the seventeen elections, we find scant evidence of extremism penalties that were either substantively large or close to statistical significance.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216660571
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • Failure to Converge: Presidential Candidates, Core Partisans, and the
           Missing Middle in American Electoral Politics
    • Authors: Bartels; L. M.
      Pages: 143 - 165
      Abstract: The logic of electoral competition suggests that candidates should have to adopt moderate issue positions to win majority support. But U.S. presidential candidates consistently take relatively extreme positions on a variety of important issues. Some observers have attributed these "polarized" positions to the extreme views of the parties’ core supporters. I characterize the issue preferences of core Republicans, core Democrats, and swing voters over the past three decades and assess how well the positions of presidential candidates reflect those preferences. I find that Republican candidates have generally been responsive to the positions of their base. However, Democratic candidates have often been even more extreme than the Democratic base, suggesting that electoral polarization is due in significant part to candidates’ own convictions rather than the need to mollify core partisans. Neither party’s presidential candidates have been more than minimally responsive to the views of swing voters.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216661145
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • Ideological Factions in the Republican and Democratic Parties
    • Authors: Noel; H.
      Pages: 166 - 188
      Abstract: Both the Republican and Democratic parties are internally divided. Each contains a party regular wing, which is interested in winning office and in the compromises necessary to govern. And each contains an ideological wing, which is interested in close adherence to the core coalition of the party. But the nature of the cleavage is very different within the parties. Among Democrats, the cleavage is mild, with most members belonging to the party regular camp, to the chagrin of ideologues, who are for the most part Bernie Sanders supporters. The cleavage among Republicans, though, is so deep that the party could not find a way to bridge it in the so-called invisible primary for 2016, creating an opening for Donald Trump, who is from neither camp.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216662433
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election
    • Authors: Oliver, J. E; Rahn, W. M.
      Pages: 189 - 206
      Abstract: Despite the wide application of the label "populist" in the 2016 election cycle, there has been little systematic evidence that this election is distinctive in its populist appeal. Looking at historical trends, contemporary rhetoric, and public opinion data, we find that populism is an appropriate descriptor of the 2016 election and that Donald Trump stands out in particular as the populist par excellence. Historical data reveal a large "representation gap" that typically accompanies populist candidates. Content analysis of campaign speeches shows that Trump, more so than any other candidate, employs a rhetoric that is distinctive in its simplicity, anti-elitism, and collectivism. Original survey data show that Trump’s supporters are distinctive in their unique combination of anti-expertise, anti-elitism, and pronationalist sentiments. Together, these findings highlight the distinctiveness of populism as a mechanism of political mobilization and the unusual character of the 2016 race.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216662639
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • National Forces in State Legislative Elections
    • Authors: Rogers; S.
      Pages: 207 - 225
      Abstract: The race for the White House is at the top of the ticket, but voters will also choose more than 5,000 state legislators in November 2016. While voters elect and hold the president responsible for one job and state legislators for another, the outcomes of their elections are remarkably related. In analyses of elite and voter behavior in state legislative elections, I show that legislators affiliated with the president’s party—especially during unpopular presidencies—are the most likely to be challenged, and compared with individual assessments of the state legislature, changes in presidential approval have at least three times the impact on voters’ decision-making in state legislative elections. Thus, while state legislatures wield considerable policymaking power, legislators’ electoral fates appear to be largely out of their control.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216662454
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
  • Polarization, Gridlock, and Presidential Campaign Politics in 2016
    • Authors: Jacobson; G. C.
      Pages: 226 - 246
      Abstract: The American electorate has grown increasingly divided along party lines in recent decades, by political attitudes, social values, basic demography, and even beliefs about reality. Deepening partisan divisions have inspired high levels of party-line voting and low levels of ticket splitting, resulting in thoroughly nationalized, president- and party-centered federal elections. Because of the way the electoral system aggregates votes, however, historically high levels of electoral coherence have delivered incoherent, divided government and policy stalemate. The 2016 nomination campaigns have exposed deep fissures within as well as between the parties, and their results threaten to shake up electoral patterns that have prevailed so far during this century, with uncertain and perhaps unpredictable consequences for national politics. The 2016 election is certain to polarize the electorate, but the axis of polarization may not fall so neatly along party lines as it has in recent years.
      PubDate: 2016-08-17T09:59:14-07:00
      DOI: 10.1177/0002716216658921
      Issue No: Vol. 667, No. 1 (2016)
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
Tel: +00 44 (0)131 4513762
Fax: +00 44 (0)131 4513327
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