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 Annals of Finance   [SJR: 0.686]   [H-I: 14]   [29 followers]  Follow         Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)    ISSN (Print) 1614-2454 - ISSN (Online) 1614-2446    Published by Springer-Verlag  [2352 journals]
• Barrier style contracts under Lévy processes once again
• Authors: José Fajardo
Pages: 93 - 103
Abstract: In this paper we present new pricing formulas for some Barrier style contracts of European type when the underlying process is driven by an important class of Lévy processes, which includes CGMY model, generalized hyperbolic Model and Meixner Model, when no symmetry properties are assumed, complementing in this way previous findings in Fajardo (J Bank Financ 53:179–187, 2015). Also, we show how to implement our new formulas.
PubDate: 2018-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0303-2
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 1 (2018)

• A nonparametric quantity-of-quality approach to assessing financial asset
return performance
• Authors: M. Ryan Haley
Abstract: This paper adapts two recent developments from the bibliometric literature to the problem of assessing the return performance of a financial asset. The result is a quantity-of-quality metric, which is both nonparametric and moment-free. As such, it offers a nonstandard perspective on the informational patterns in asset returns, and accordingly can complement traditional moment-based asset evaluation methods. The proposed approach is simple to apply, and while moment-free, captures intuitively important aspects of asset performance such as location, upside potential, downside risk, and volatility. It can also be expressed as a reward-to-risk ratio, which serves as a counterpart to the Sharpe ratio. Empirical and simulation results suggest that, relative to the Sharpe ratio, the proposed approach prefers assets with moderately higher means and standard deviations, and more favorable skewness.
PubDate: 2018-02-26
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0319-2

• Modeling the inconsistency in intertemporal choice: the generalized
Weibull discount function and its extension
• Authors: Salvador Cruz Rambaud; Isabel Fernández González; Viviana Ventre
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to obtain the family of the so-called generalized Weibull discount functions, introduced by Takeuchi (Game Econ Behav 71:456–478, 2011), by deforming the q-exponential discount function by means of the Stevens’ “power” law. The obtained discount functions exhibit different degrees of inconsistency and so they can be classified according to the value of their characteristic deforming parameters. Moreover, we extend the construction of the generalized Weibull discount function starting from any discount function instead of the q-exponential discounting. In any case, the value of the parameter $$\theta$$ of these new discount functions is extended from (0, 1] to the union of the intervals $$(-\,\infty ,0) \cup (0,+\,\infty )$$ .
PubDate: 2018-02-13
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0318-3

• The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook
• Authors: Horatio Cuesdeanu; Jens Carsten Jackwerth
Abstract: It has been a while since the literature on the pricing kernel puzzle was summarized in Jackwerth (Option-implied risk-neutral distributions and risk-aversion, The Research Foundation of AIMR, Charlotteville, 2004). That older survey also covered the topic of risk-neutral distributions, which was itself already surveyed in Jackwerth (J Deriv 2:66–82, 1999). Much has happened in those years and estimation of risk-neutral distributions has moved from new and exciting in the last half of the 1990s to becoming a well-understood technology. Thus, the present survey will focus on the pricing kernel puzzle, which was first discussed around 2000. We document the pricing kernel puzzle in several markets and present the latest evidence concerning its (non-)existence. Econometric studies are detailed which test for the pricing kernel puzzle. The present work adds much breadth in terms of economic explanations of the puzzle. New challenges for the field are described in the process.
PubDate: 2017-12-19
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0317-9

• Can VPIN forecast geopolitical events' Evidence from the 2014 Crimean
Crisis
• Authors: Felipe Bastos G. Silva; Ekaterina Volkova
Abstract: We study the recent Crimean Crisis and the sequence of outcomes that led to the intervention by the Russian Army, which directly affected equity prices in Russia, to investigate how informed traders may have used their advantage to trade prior to the moment markets fell. We compute the Volume-synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) for the Russian RTS equity index and for individual stocks, documenting that levels of informed trading increased considerably between one and three trading days before market prices reflected the invasion. We also investigate the predictive power of the cumulative distribution of VPIN on future stock prices, showing a statistically significant (negative) relation during the period of elevated tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Last, we investigate the levels of VPIN measured for global depositary receipts of Russian firms, documenting a similar increasing pattern prior to the invasion date but generally subsequent to the spikes obtained from the corresponding securities locally traded in Russia. Overall, our results provide additional support for the use of VPIN as a tool for monitoring the likelihood of undesirable geopolitical events.
PubDate: 2017-12-18
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0314-z

• Asset market equilibrium with liquidity risk
• Authors: Robert Jarrow
Abstract: This paper derives an equilibrium asset pricing model with endogenous liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic quantity impact on the price from trading, where the size of the impact depends on trade size. Under a strong set of assumptions, we prove that a unique equilibrium liquidity cost process and a unique equilibrium price process exists for our economy. We characterize the market’s state price density, which enables the derivation of the risk-return relation for the stock’s expected return including liquidity risk. We derive a generalized intertemporal CAPM and consumption CAPM for these markets. In contrast to the traditional models without liquidity risk, there is an additional systematic liquidity risk factor which is related to the stock return’s covariation with the market’s stochastic liquidity cost. Traditional transaction costs are a special case of our formulation.
PubDate: 2017-12-08
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0316-x

• On the implied market price of risk under the stochastic numéraire
• Authors: Nikolai Dokuchaev
Abstract: This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a numéraire. An equivalent martingale measure is not unique for this market, and there are non-replicable claims. Some rational choices of the equivalent martingale measures are suggested and discussed, including implied measures calculated from bond prices constructed as a risk-free investment with deterministic payoff at the terminal time. This leads to possibility to infer a implied market price of risk process from observed historical bond prices.
PubDate: 2017-12-02
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0315-y

• How does competition affect real earnings management to meet or beat
targets' Evidence from import tariff reductions
• Authors: Alex Young
Abstract: Targets provide incentives for earnings management, and a longstanding question is whether earnings management is undertaken opportunistically or to communicate private information about future firm value. To discriminate between these motivations, I follow analytical research showing that an increase in competition through a large decrease in tariffs disciplines managers and better aligns their interests with those of shareholders. Thus, if earnings management reflects managerial opportunism, then an increase in competition will decrease earnings management; and if it signals future performance expectations, then an increase in competition will increase earnings management. Consistent with earnings management indicating managerial opportunism, I show that an increase in competition decreases real earnings management to avoid reporting negative earnings or a negative change in earnings. In addition, by showing that the lessening of trade barriers through import tariff reductions reduces the use of real earnings management to meet or beat earnings targets, I provide evidence on the role of macroeconomic conditions as a determinant of earnings quality.
PubDate: 2017-11-14
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0313-0

• Financial equilibrium with non-linear valuations
Abstract: Classical Arrow Debreu equilibria employ budget feasibility to require individuals to ensure excess supplies to be nonnegative in value using the single equilibrium price system for valuation purposes. Yet by the selection of state contingent prices, they seek excess supplies that are nonnegative in each component, and not just the value. A financial equilibrium, on the other hand, defines acceptable economic risks as excess supplies that are nonnegative in value for a number of prespecified valuation price systems. The collection of prespecified valuation price systems may be referred to as features for which clearing is sought. The number of features will generally be less than the number of states. It is then shown that by also defining budget feasibility nonlinearly one may construct a financial equilibrium with fewer securities than there are features to be cleared.
PubDate: 2017-11-08
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0312-1

• Venture capital and underpricing: capacity constraints and early sales
• Authors: Roberto Pinheiro
Abstract: I present a model of the venture capital (VC) and public markets in which VCs suffer from capacity constraints, due to the shortage of skilled VC managers. Consequently, VC firms can only handle a limited number of new projects at once, having to divest from ongoing projects in order to take advantage of new opportunities. This framework is able to match key features presented by the VC and initial public offer (IPO) empirical literatures: (1) VC-backed firms are younger, smaller, and less profitable at the IPO than their non-VC backed counterparts; (2) VC-backed IPOs are more underpriced than non-VC backed ones, (3) there is a positive relationship between underpricing and VC fundraising; (4) small and young VC firms usually take portfolio firms public earlier than their large and mature counterparts; (5) in hot IPO markets, VCs are more likely to take public both very young and small firms as well as mature and large firms, compared to cold markets. Differently, non-VC backed firms are usually smaller and younger in hot markets than in cold ones.
PubDate: 2017-11-08
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0311-2

• Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and
real effects
• Authors: Mikhail Stolbov; Maria Shchepeleva
Abstract: The paper studies salient features of systemic risk in a sample of 22 European (EU and non-EU) countries during January 2010–March 2016. Building on a novel dataset and conducting an empirical horse race, we determine pivotal systemic risk measures for the sample countries. SRISK and volatility indicator tend to lead other metrics, followed by leverage. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, composite systemic risk measures aggregated with the aid of principal and independent component analysis perform worse. The leading systemic risk measures exhibit a high degree of connectedness. The VIX index, TED spread, the Composite Index of Systemic Stress (CISS) and long-term interest rates underlie their dynamics. Two clusters within the sample are identified, with CISS and long-term interest rates being crucial to distinguish between them. There is only scarce evidence for causal linkages between systemic risk and industrial production in the sample countries, based on the concurring results of standard and nonparametric Granger causality tests.
PubDate: 2017-10-24
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0310-3

• Approximate option pricing and hedging in the CEV model via path-wise
comparison of stochastic processes
• Authors: Vladislav Krasin; Ivan Smirnov; Alexander Melnikov
Abstract: This paper presents a methodology of finding explicit boundaries for some financial quantities via comparison of stochastic processes. The path-wise comparison theorem is used to establish domination of the stock price process by a process with a known distribution that is relatively simple. We demonstrate how the comparison theorem can be applied in the constant elasticity of variance model to derive closed-form expressions for option price bounds, an approximate hedging strategy and a conditional value-at-risk estimate. We also provide numerical examples and compare precision of our method with the distribution-free approach.
PubDate: 2017-10-20
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0309-9

• Counterparty risk, central counterparty clearing and aggregate risk
• Authors: Binbin Deng
Abstract: I construct a model of bilateral trading of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives to study the performance of central counterparty (CCP) clearing. I first show how buyers are exposed to counterparty risk under bilateral clearing. I then show how a CCP can fully insure against counterparty risk through risk-mutualization and achieve full idiosyncratic risk-sharing among market participants. I further demonstrate the impact of aggregate risk on CCP clearing and illustrate a scenario in which the CCP fails to provide full insurance against counterparty risk and full idiosyncratic risk-sharing collapses under severe aggregate risk. To insure against aggregate risk and retain full idiosyncratic risk-sharing, sellers’ capital resource is important on top of CCP mutualization. Finally, I allow buyers to costly search for sellers and study the implications of optimal search effort. I show how a moral hazard problem can arise if effort is unobservable, in which case full CCP insurance against counterparty risk is no longer optimal.
PubDate: 2017-09-26
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0308-x

• Regulation, supervision and deposit insurance for financial cooperatives:
an empirical investigation
• Authors: Amr Khafagy
Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of different regulation and supervision approaches, as well as deposit insurance schemes, on the development of financial cooperatives in developing countries, using random and fixed effects estimators. Information on laws regulating financial cooperatives, the supervisory approaches adopted, and deposit insurance schemes in sixty-five developing countries were collected—mostly—from original legislations for the period 1995–2014. Key findings suggest that indicators of financial cooperative development are positively correlated with the existence of a specialized regulation; supervision under non-bank financial supervisory authorities; and the presence of deposit insurance schemes, while general cooperative society’s regulations and banking regulations are negatively correlated with financial cooperatives’ indicators. These results are robust after controlling for economic and institutional factors as well as potential endogeneity bias.
PubDate: 2017-09-26
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0307-y

• Business cycles, financial cycles and capital structure
• Authors: Haitham A. Al-Zoubi; Jennifer A. O’Sullivan; Abdulaziz M. Alwathnani
Abstract: We perform peridogram based cycle analysis of firm capital structure and find evidence that firms’ leverage is both persistent and cyclical. The cyclicality of leverage is supported by the trade-off, pecking order and market timing capital structure theories (Korajczyk and Levy in J Financ Econ 68:75–109, 2003; Bhamra et al. in Rev Financ Stud 23:645–703, 2010). Although market timing theory research supports persistence, previous literature dictates that the trade-off and pecking order theories may predict either persistent or mean reverting leverage. Our tests reject mean reversion in favor of persistent and cyclical leverage. We corroborate pecking order theory literature that predicts leverage is persistent. In these models, when firms’ investment spending is below earnings, leverage decreases. In addition, we examine whether firms change their capital structure as a result of business and financial cycles. Since financial cycles last longer than business cycles, financial cycles should have a long term effect on leverage. Our findings confirm the persistent leverage business cycle models that suggest firms change their capital structure due to financial and credit cycles (Jermann and Quadrini in Am Econ Rev 102:238–271, 2012; Azariadis et al. in Rev Econ Stud 83:1364–1405, 2016). We conclude that leverage is persistent due to the cyclicality of the financing decision.
PubDate: 2017-08-20
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0306-z

• Stock markets fragmentation, volatility and final investors
• Authors: Cécile Bastidon
Abstract: The 2000s in equity markets are marked by two major regulatory shocks: RegNMS in the United States, and MiFID in the European Union. Simultaneously, there is a massive increase in the proportion of high-frequency trading, and market orders volume. However, trading volumes do not significantly increase. We propose a theoretical model describing the effects of stock markets fragmentation on two types of investors optimization problems: “intermediary” high-frequency and “final” investors. Volatility has a permanent and a transitory component, whose weights depend on market fragmentation via the share of non-marketable orders of intermediary investors. The trading volume of final investors depends on market fragmentation both directly via transaction costs, and indirectly via total volatility. Finally a shock in fragmentation may lead to a decrease in trading volume, enhanced in the case of an equity markets crisis by a rise in the components of volatility.
PubDate: 2017-08-20
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0305-0

• The dampening effect of iceberg orders on small traders’ welfare
• Authors: Laura Delaney; Polina Kovaleva
Abstract: Iceberg orders, which allow traders to hide a portion of their order size, have become prevalent in many electronic limit order markets. This paper investigates, via a real options analysis, whether small traders, who have no use for submitting iceberg orders, are better off submitting their orders to fully transparent markets which have low depth, or to more liquid markets which do permit the placement of iceberg orders by large traders. Surprisingly, we find that in the context of our model, small traders are better off submitting to fully transparent markets in spite of them being less liquid.
PubDate: 2017-08-10
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0304-1

• Analysis of variance based instruments for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type
models: swap and price index
• Authors: Aziz Issaka; Indranil SenGupta
Abstract: In this paper a couple of variance dependent instruments in the financial market are studied. Firstly, a number of aspects of the variance swap in connection to the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model are studied. A partial integro-differential equation that describes the dynamics of the arbitrage-free price of the variance swap is formulated. Under appropriate assumptions for the first four cumulants of the driving subordinator, a Večeř-type theorem is proved. The bounds of the arbitrage-free variance swap price are also found. Finally, a price-weighted index modulated by market variance is introduced. The large-basket limit dynamics of the price index and the “error term” are derived. Empirical data driven numerical examples are provided in support of the proposed price index.
PubDate: 2017-07-27
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0302-3

• Quadratic minimization with portfolio and intertemporal wealth constraints
• Authors: Dian Zhu; Andrew J. Heunis
Abstract: We address a problem of stochastic optimal control motivated by portfolio optimization in mathematical finance, the goal of which is to minimize the expected value of a general quadratic loss function of the wealth at close of trade when there is a specified convex constraint on the portfolio, together with a specified almost-sure lower-bound on intertemporal wealth over the full trading interval. A precursor to the present work, by Heunis (Ann Financ 11:243–282, 2015), addressed the simpler problem of minimizing a general quadratic loss function with a convex portfolio constraint and a stipulated almost-sure lower-bound on the wealth only at close of trade. In the parlance of optimal control the problem that we shall address here exhibits the combination of a control constraint (i.e. the portfolio constraint) together with an almost-sure intertemporal state constraint (on the wealth over the full trading interval). Optimal control problems with this combination of constraints are well known to be quite challenging even in the deterministic case, and of course become still more so when one deals with these same constraints in a stochastic setting. We nevertheless find that an ingenious variational approach of Rockafellar (Conjugate duality and optimization, CBMS-NSF series no. 16, SIAM, 1974), which played a key role in the precursor work noted above, is fully equal to the challenges posed by this problem, and leads naturally to an appropriate vector space of dual variables, together with a dual functional on the space of dual variables, such that the dual problem of maximizing the dual functional is guaranteed to have a solution (or Lagrange multiplier) when the problem constraints satisfy a simple and natural Slater condition. We then establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimality of a candidate wealth process in terms of the Lagrange multiplier, and use these conditions to construct an optimal portfolio.
PubDate: 2017-07-05
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0300-5

• Investment, agency conflicts, debt maturity, and loan guarantees by
negotiation
• Authors: Liu Gan; Zhaojun Yang
Abstract: We consider an irreversible investment, of which the sunk cost is financed by a finite-term debt after entering into an option-for-guarantee swap (OGS) with negotiation. The OGS is a three-party agreement among a lender (bank), an insurer, and a borrower (entrepreneur), where the bank lends at a given interest rate to the entrepreneur and if the borrower defaults on debt, the insurer must pay all the principal and remaining interests to the lender instead of the borrower. In return for the guarantee, the borrower must allocate a perpetual American call option to purchase a fraction (guarantee cost) of his equity at a given strike price. We find that the investment threshold decreases but the exercise threshold of the insurer’s option increases with the borrower’s bargaining power. Both the investment and exercise threshold increase with debt maturity, but there is a U-shaped relation between the guarantee cost and debt maturity. The borrower postpones investment once the funding gap or project risk increases. The swap may overcome the inefficiencies from asset substitution and debt overhang, strongly depending on the debt maturity and borrower’s bargaining power.
PubDate: 2017-05-18
DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0298-8

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