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BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS (1139 journals)                  1 2 3 4 5 6 | Last

Showing 1 - 200 of 1566 Journals sorted alphabetically
4OR: A Quarterly Journal of Operations Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Abacus     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Accounting Forum     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Acta Amazonica     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Acta Commercii     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Acta Oeconomica     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Acta Scientiarum. Human and Social Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica     Open Access  
Acta Universitatis Nicolai Copernici Zarządzanie     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
AD-minister     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
ADR Bulletin     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Advances in Developing Human Resources     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
Advances in Economics and Business     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
AfricaGrowth Agenda     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
African Affairs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 57)
African Development Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
African Journal of Business and Economic Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
African Journal of Business Ethics     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
African Review of Economics and Finance     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Agronomy     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Akademika : Journal of Southeast Asia Social Sciences and Humanities     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Alphanumeric Journal : The Journal of Operations Research, Statistics, Econometrics and Management Information Systems     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
American Economic Journal : Applied Economics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 126)
American Journal of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
American Journal of Business and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 51)
American Journal of Business Education     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
American Journal of Economics and Business Administration     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
American Journal of Economics and Sociology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
American Journal of Evaluation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
American Journal of Finance and Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
American Journal of Health Economics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 13)
American Journal of Industrial and Business Management     Open Access   (Followers: 23)
American Journal of Medical Quality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
American Law and Economics Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
ANALES de la Universidad Central del Ecuador     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincare (C) Non Linear Analysis     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Annals in Social Responsibility     Full-text available via subscription  
Annals of Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Annals of Operations Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Annual Review of Economics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 29)
Applied Developmental Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Applied Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Applied Economics Letters     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Applied Economics Quarterly     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10)
Applied Financial Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Applied Mathematical Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Arab Economic and Business Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Archives of Business Research     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Arena Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Argomenti. Rivista di economia, cultura e ricerca sociale     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
ASEAN Economic Bulletin     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Asia Pacific Business Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Asia Pacific Journal of Human Resources     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 318)
Asia Pacific Viewpoint     Hybrid Journal  
Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Asian Business Review     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Asian Case Research Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Asian Development Review     Open Access   (Followers: 14)
Asian Economic Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Asian Economic Papers     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Asian Economic Policy Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Asian Journal of Accounting and Governance     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Asian Journal of Business Ethics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Asian Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Asian Journal of Sustainability and Social Responsibility     Open Access  
Asian Journal of Technology Innovation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Asian-pacific Economic Literature     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Atlantic Economic Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, The     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Australian Cottongrower, The     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Australian Economic Papers     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Australian Economic Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Australian Journal of Maritime and Ocean Affairs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Balkan Region Conference on Engineering and Business Education     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Banks in Insurance Report     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
BBR - Brazilian Business Review     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Benchmarking : An International Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
BER : Consumer Confidence Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
BER : Economic Prospects : An Executive Summary     Full-text available via subscription  
BER : Economic Prospects : Full Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
BER : Intermediate Goods Industries Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
BER : Manufacturing Survey : Full Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
BER : Motor Trade Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
BER : Retail Sector Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
BER : Retail Survey : Full Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
BER : Survey of Business Conditions in Building and Construction : An Executive Summary     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
BER : Survey of Business Conditions in Manufacturing : An Executive Summary     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
BER : Survey of Business Conditions in Retail : An Executive Summary     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
BER : Trends : Full Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
BER : Wholesale Sector Survey     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Berkeley Business Law Journal     Free   (Followers: 11)
Bio-based and Applied Economics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Biodegradation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Biology Direct     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Black Enterprise     Full-text available via subscription  
Board & Administrator for Administrators only     Hybrid Journal  
Border Crossing : Transnational Working Papers     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Briefings in Real Estate Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
British Journal of Industrial Relations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30)
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity     Open Access   (Followers: 47)
Brookings Trade Forum     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
BRQ Business Research Quarterly     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Building Sustainable Legacies : The New Frontier Of Societal Value Co-Creation     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Bulletin of Economic Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Bulletin of the Dnipropetrovsk University. Series : Management of Innovations     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Business & Entrepreneurship Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 16)
Business & Information Systems Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Business & Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Business : Theory and Practice / Verslas : Teorija ir Praktika     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Business and Economic Research     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Business and Management Horizons     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Business and Management Research     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Business and Management Studies     Open Access   (Followers: 9)
Business and Politics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Business and Professional Communication Quarterly     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Business and Society Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Business Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Business Ethics: A European Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Business Horizons     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Business Information Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Business Management and Strategy     Open Access   (Followers: 40)
Business Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Business Strategy and the Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Business Strategy Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Business Strategy Series     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Business Systems & Economics     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Business Systems Research Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Business, Management and Education     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Business, Peace and Sustainable Development     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Bustan     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Cadernos EBAPE.BR     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Cambridge Journal of Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 54)
Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences / Revue Canadienne des Sciences de l Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d`Economique     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Canadian journal of nonprofit and social economy research     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Capitalism and Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Capitalism Nature Socialism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Case Studies in Business and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
CBU International Conference Proceedings     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Central European Journal of Operations Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Central European Journal of Public Policy     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
CESifo Economic Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Chain Reaction     Full-text available via subscription  
Challenge     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
China & World Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
China : An International Journal     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16)
China Economic Journal: The Official Journal of the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
China Economic Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
China Finance Review International     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
China Nonprofit Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
China perspectives     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Chinese Economy     Full-text available via subscription  
Ciência & Saúde Coletiva     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
CLIO América     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Cliometrica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
COEPTUM     Open Access  
Community Development Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Compensation & Benefits Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Competition & Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Competitive Intelligence Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Competitiveness Review : An International Business Journal incorporating Journal of Global Competitiveness     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Computational Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Computational Mathematics and Modeling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Computer Law & Security Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Computers & Operations Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Contemporary Wales     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Contextus - Revista Contemporânea de Economia e Gestão     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Contributions to Political Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Corporate Communications An International Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Corporate Philanthropy Report     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Corporate Reputation Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Creative and Knowledge Society     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Creative Industries Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
CRIS - Bulletin of the Centre for Research and Interdisciplinary Study     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Crossing the Border : International Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Cuadernos de Administración (Universidad del Valle)     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Cuadernos de Economía     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Cuadernos de Economia - Latin American Journal of Economics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Cuadernos de Estudios Empresariales     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Current Opinion in Creativity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
De Economist     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Decision Analysis     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Decision Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Decision Support Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Defence and Peace Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
der markt     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Desenvolvimento em Questão     Open Access  
Development     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 23)
Development and Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 46)
Development and Learning in Organizations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)

        1 2 3 4 5 6 | Last

Journal Cover Business Economics
  [SJR: 0.288]   [H-I: 8]   [6 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 0007-666X - ISSN (Online) 1554-432X
   Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2329 journals]
  • From the Editor
    • Authors: Charles Steindel
      Pages: 1 - 2
      PubDate: 2017-01-01
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0030-8
      Issue No: Vol. 52, No. 1 (2017)
  • Comments at the Panel “Responders of First or Last Resort: Central Bank
           Strategies in an Era of Ultra-Low Interest Rates”
    • Authors: Charles L. Evans
      Abstract: Abstract There is an emerging consensus among economists that the trend rate of economic growth in the U.S. is much lower now than in the past. In a lower-trend-growth regime, short-term equilibrium real interest rates are lower, all else being equal. In these circumstances monetary policymakers have less room to cut policy rates before hitting the zero lower bound and relying on unconventional policy tools to provide additional accommodation. Moreover, preserving the Fed’s credibility for providing sufficient accommodation to achieve our symmetric inflation objective and maximum employment remains an important consideration. Therefore, risk-management policies favor skewing policy today to lower the chances of facing more difficult zero-lower-bound outcomes in the future.
      PubDate: 2017-04-25
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0028-2
  • Erratum to: When is a Firm Born? Alternative Criteria and Consequences
    • Authors: Paul Davidson Reynolds
      PubDate: 2017-04-07
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0032-6
  • Monetary Policy Accommodation at the Lower Bound
    • Authors: Signe Krogstrup
      Abstract: Abstract Monetary policy was too tight in many countries following the financial crisis, due to the lower bound on interest rates. This is likely to have prolonged the recession that followed. This point is illustrated with an assessment of monetary accommodation in the US since the financial crisis, and the accommodation achieved through negative interest rates in countries that have adopted these. The lower bound will likely give rise to considerable economic costs in the future, as it has in the recent past. There is an urgent need to consider how policy tools and frameworks should be adapted.
      PubDate: 2017-03-28
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0031-7
  • The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan by Sebastian
    • Authors: William Poole
      Abstract: Abstract I agree that Sebastian Mallaby’s detailed and well-sourced The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan, will be essential for every future economic historian studying the Greenspan era. That said, Mallaby does not convey to his readers a sound understanding of monetary policy. I disagree with Mallaby’s claim that Greenspan could and should have done something about the housing and subprime mortgage bubbles. Peter Wallison makes a strong case that the affordable housing quotas did not just “encourage” but forced the GSEs to buy subprime mortgages. Information available in real time on aggregate subprime mortgage issuance was seriously flawed because the GSEs did not report accurately. Greenspan cannot be held responsible for the GSEs hiding the subprime debt on their balance sheets. These mortgages were central to the crisis. It seems improbable that any monetary policy mistake of 2001–05 was large enough to create the crisis. Mallaby could have written a final chapter emphasizing the Maestro resisting the power of a malign and evil pair of GSEs and the power of the President and Congress of the United States pursuing a disastrous housing policy. Despite the Maestro’s best efforts, Leviathan triumphed and brought ruin upon the Nation.
      PubDate: 2017-03-27
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0029-1
  • The Competitive Dynamics of the Generic Drug Manufacturing Industry
    • Authors: Evan Hoffman
      Abstract: For decades, brand name drugs have been a cornerstone of growth and innovation for pharmaceutical manufacturers. In recent years, however, a combination of greater demand from the public for competitively price drugs and more frequent patent expirations has set the stage for the rise of generic drugs. The emergence of generics has tilted the competitive landscape of the industry as cheaper production costs for suppliers has had a significant impact on how industry operators interact with their supply chain. The following analysis aims to examine the competitive dynamics of the pharmaceutical sector as generics continue to flood the marketplace.
      PubDate: 2017-03-22
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0026-4
  • Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and
           Threatens Democracy
    • Authors: Apurv Jain
      PubDate: 2017-03-10
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0027-3
  • The U.S. Carpet Industry: History, Industry Dynamics, and a Simple Model
           for Short-Term Forecasting
    • Authors: Kevin Swift; Emily Sanchez
      Abstract: Abstract This article presents a simple model that can be used to assess the current situation of the carpet industry and develop a short-term outlook for it. Using quarterly data over the time period 1999:Q1–2016:Q2, we build a regression model of U.S. carpet industry shipments. We find that the recent leveling-off of shipments is likely to persist. While housing recovery will aid the demand for carpeting, increases in income are likely to be offsetting, as the switch to alternative floor coverings will be ongoing.
      PubDate: 2017-03-10
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0023-7
  • When is a Firm Born? Alternative Criteria and Consequences
    • Authors: Paul Davidson Reynolds
      Abstract: Abstract There are a number of ways to determine the birth date of a new firm. These include the date of a start-up venture’s initial transactions, initial registry listing, initial labor input, and initial profits. Utilizing the responses from the second Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics (PSED) cohort, it appears that different criteria for a firm’s birth date are associated with substantial differences in the proportion of start-ups that became new firms, the time required to become a new firm, survival following a new firm birth, and the provision of new jobs. This variation may help explain some inconsistent research findings related to firm births.
      PubDate: 2017-02-22
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0022-8
  • The Curse of Cash
    • Authors: Stephen Williamson
      PubDate: 2017-02-15
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0025-5
  • Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible
    • Authors: Larry Neal
      PubDate: 2017-02-15
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0021-9
  • Are Young People Becoming More Risk Averse? An Analysis of Factors
           Contributing to the Rise in Precautionary Savings Among Young Adults
    • Authors: LaVaughn M. Henry
      Abstract: Abstract Since the late 1980s, young people aged 18–34 have increasingly stated that their primary reason for increasing their saving rate has been to protect themselves against uncertain future times. The rate of increase in “precautionary” savings exceeds that of all other age groups, and has occurred against a backdrop of declining real income, a tepid economic recovery from the Great Recession of 2008–09, a tightened credit environment, and changing household demographics. This study considers the impact of these and other elements on young adults’ decisions to save for precautionary purposes, and considers what possible impacts these developments might have for broader consumption and production trends in the U.S economy.
      PubDate: 2017-02-15
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0020-x
  • From the Editor
    • Authors: Charles Steindel
      Pages: 187 - 187
      PubDate: 2016-10-01
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0019-8
      Issue No: Vol. 51, No. 4 (2016)
  • The Business Economist’s Toolkit
    • Authors: Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly
      Abstract: Abstract Business economists are not members of the high church of academic orthodoxy. Our tool kit includes research functions, such as business cycle analysis, demographics research, data analytics, primary research, diversity of thought, and client research. It also includes personal skills that should be cultivated and practiced, such as curiosity, maintaining a nonpartisan view, humility, courage, and effective communication.
      PubDate: 2016-11-21
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0018-9
  • Manipulation and Deception as Part of a Phishing Equilibrium
    • Authors: George A. Akerlof; Robert J. Shiller
      Abstract: Abstract Free markets are products of peace and freedom, flourishing in stable times when people do not live in fear. But they also create an economic equilibrium that is highly suitable for enterprises that manipulate or distort our judgment on competitive markets. Unregulated free markets rarely reward the different kind of heroism, of those who restrain themselves from taking advantage of customers’ psychological or informational weaknesses. People frequently make decisions that are not in their best interest. Such bad decisions make it possible for them to be phished for phools. If we have some weakness or other—some way in which we can be phished for phools for more than the usual profit—in the phishing equilibrium, it will be taken up.
      PubDate: 2016-11-07
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0015-z
  • Is Predicting Recessions Enough?
    • Authors: Azhar Iqbal; John Silvia
      Abstract: Abstract We propose an ordered probit framework to simultaneously predict the probabilities of recession, weaker recovery, and stronger recovery. Our approach helps identify (a) whether the next phase is a recession, (b) when the recovery period starts, and (c) whether the recovery would be a weak or strong one compared to historical standards. We believe our approach would help policy makers decide when would be appropriate to (1) start expansionary policies (higher probabilities of recession), (2) continue expansionary policies (higher probabilities of weaker recovery), or (3) turn to neutral/contractionary policies (higher probabilities of stronger recovery). The ordered probit model shows the probabilities of recession staying above 50 percent during all five recessions in our simulated out-of-sample analysis of 1980:Q1–2016:Q1. The probabilities of weaker recovery are consistent with actual periods of below trend growth. Based on 2016:Q1 data, the model suggests a meaningfully higher chance of continuing below trend growth. One key result is that the probability of weaker growth has been persistently higher than the other two scenarios for the past several years. These higher probabilities of weak growth are consistent with the accommodative monetary policy stance of the past eight years.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0017-x
  • The Evolving Contours of Productivity Performance and Automation
           Investment in U.S. Manufacturing
    • Authors: Cliff Waldman
      Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes the productivity challenges as well as the production-related technological investments in the U.S. manufacturing sector in order to create a rich framework for productivity-enhancing policy making. It offers an industry-based analysis of the evolution of manufacturing productivity performance and subsequently presents original, survey-generated data on automation investment. Productivity performance drivers are statistically identified and a discussion of the still poorly understood relationship between automation and productivity is offered.
      PubDate: 2016-11-01
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0013-1
  • Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?
    • Authors: Michael A. Brown; Michael Pugliese
      Abstract: Academic researchers and commentators have drawn attention to the potential link between heightened uncertainty experienced in a presidential election year and slower real economic activity. Our analysis looks at some of the key economic variables typically used by the NBER to date business cycles and compares the performance of these economic indicators between presidential election and non-election years since 1960. Our results suggest that the general argument that uncertainty during presidential election years results in slower economic activity does not hold water. In fact, based on our analysis, we find that several measures of economic activity are actually stronger during presidential election years.
      PubDate: 2016-10-25
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0016-y
  • A New Framework to Estimate the Near-Term Path of the Fed Funds Rate
    • Authors: Sam Bullard; Azhar Iqbal; John Silvia
      Abstract: Abstract We propose a forward-looking method to estimate the path for the federal funds target rate. We utilize six-month out probabilities of inflationary and disinflationary pressures, along with a labor market index, to estimate the fed funds rate. We further suggest that due to the changing nature of economies and impending risks to the economic outlook, a time-varying method (consistent with the nature of risks) would help decision makers to improve effective decision making. Our econometric results suggest disinflation (or disinflationary pressure), not inflationary pressure, best explains fed funds rate movements from the 1990s forward. Based on June 2016 data, there is a 55 percent chance that the inflation rate would stay below 1.5 percent during the next six months. The recent higher disinflationary pressure probability may be one reason the FOMC has repeatedly lowered its path for the fed funds rate. Unfortunately, the low-inflation zombie is real.
      PubDate: 2016-10-19
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0014-0
  • Ultra-Easy Money: Digging the Hole Deeper?
    • Authors: William R. White
      Abstract: Abstract The global situation we face today is arguably more fraught with danger than was the case when the crisis first began. By encouraging still more credit and debt expansion, monetary policy has “dug the hole deeper.” The fundamental analytical mistake has been to model the economy as an understandable and controllable machine rather than as a complex, adaptive system. This mistake also implies that the suggestion that central banks should necessarily reduce the “financial rate of interest,” in response to a presumed fall in the “natural rate,” is overly simplistic. In practice, ultra-easy policy has not stimulated aggregate demand to the degree expected but has had other unexpected consequences. Not least, it poses a threat to financial stability and to potential growth going forward. Further, “exit” threatens to be delayed in many countries, underlining the dangerous fact that the global economy has no nominal anchor. Much better would be policies, introduced by other arms of government, that would recognize that the fundamental problem is not inadequate liquidity but excessive debt and possible insolvencies. The policy stakes are now very high.
      PubDate: 2016-10-18
      DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0012-2
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Heriot-Watt University
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