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POLITICAL SCIENCE (747 journals)                  1 2 3 4 | Last

Showing 1 - 200 of 281 Journals sorted alphabetically
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        1 2 3 4 | Last

Journal Cover Electoral Studies
  [SJR: 1.371]   [H-I: 44]   [28 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 0261-3794
   Published by Elsevier Homepage  [3044 journals]
  • Irrationalizing the rational choice model of voting: The moderating
           effects of partisanship on turnout decisions in Western and postcommunist
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 9 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Dong-Joon Jung
      The rational choice model of voting has been criticized by the fact that citizens expecting greater costs than the benefits associated with voting still turn out. This article focuses on the function of partisanship by which the effect of the rational calculation on voting is moderated. Previous studies have only tested the effect of partisanship on turnout additively failing to explore its interactions with the costs and benefits of voting. My multilevel analyses using the CSES data show that partisanship significantly moderates the effects of the information costs and intrinsic benefits of voting on turnout. These results, however, are not found in the postcommunist new democracies with unstable party system hindering partisanship from serving as a political cue and providing an expressive satisfaction of voting.

      PubDate: 2017-09-13T22:36:07Z
  • The Matthew effect in electoral campaigns: Increasing policy congruence
           inequality during the campaign
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 8 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Stefaan Walgrave, Christophe Lesschaeve

      PubDate: 2017-09-13T22:36:07Z
  • How voter mobilization from short text messages travels within households
           and families: Evidence from two nationwide field experiments
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 5 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Yosef Bhatti, Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Jonas Hedegaard Hansen, Kasper M. Hansen
      Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately 30 percent spilled over to other persons in the household, even parents. The effects are subtle and we cannot with certainty establish that a spillover effect exists. However, we demonstrate, using Bayesian updating, that even an initial skeptic becomes close to convinced that the effect spills over. Our study provides evidence by suggesting that young individuals’ decision to vote affect other household members, including their parents, to do the same. When young voters live without their parents, we find no evidence of spillovers to parents, suggesting that households are more important than families ties for turnout contagion.

      PubDate: 2017-09-07T22:18:21Z
  • Truman defeats Dewey: The effect of campaign visits on election outcomes
    • Abstract: Publication date: October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 49
      Author(s): Boris Heersink, Brenton D. Peterson
      Political science research suggests that campaign visits by presidential candidates produce small and short-lived effects, consistent with mixed findings of their influence on election returns. We argue that existing studies are constrained by two issues: most studies rely on state-level data, rather than more localized data, and do not incorporate differentiation in the quality of campaign appearances in their assessment of visit effects. To incorporate these concerns in a study of campaign visit effects on election outcomes, we study the 1948 presidential election, during which Harry Truman engaged in a major whistle-stop train tour and won a surprise victory over his opponent, Thomas Dewey. Using data on campaign stops gathered from archival sources, we estimate the effect of campaign appearances on candidate vote share at the county level. We find that Truman, on average, gained 3.06 percentage points of the overall vote share in counties that he visited. Consistent with contemporary judgments of the “quality” of the two candidates' campaign stops, we find no effect of Dewey's appearances on his performance. Our results provide strong evidence that candidate visits can influence electoral returns, rather than merely affect short-term public opinion. In counterfactual simulations, we show that Truman's extensive campaign tour likely won him the state of Ohio, highlighting the importance of strategic campaign decisions and campaign effects in close elections.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • The relative weight of character traits in political candidate
           evaluations: Warmth is more important than competence, leadership and
    • Abstract: Publication date: October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 49
      Author(s): Lasse Laustsen, Alexander Bor
      Decades of research has found that voters’ electoral decisions to a significant degree are affected by character evaluations of candidates. Yet it remains unresolved which specific candidate traits voters find most important. In political science it is often argued that competence-related traits are most influential, whereas work in social psychology suggests that warmth-related traits are more influential. Here we test which character trait is the more influential in global candidate evaluations and vote choice using observational data from the ANES 1984–2008 and an original experiment conducted on a representative sample of English partisan respondents. Across the two studies we find that warmth is more influential than competence, leadership and integrity. Importantly, results hold across a wide range of alternative specifications and robustness analyses. We conclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications of the results.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • Type of education and voter turnout – Evidence from a register-based
    • Abstract: Publication date: October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 49
      Author(s): Yosef Bhatti
      The relationship between education length and voter turnout has been one of the most studied in the political participation literature in recent decades. However, few studies focus on education type, and most of the existing research on this topic relies on cross-sectional data. In the current study, we utilize a large register-based panel dataset to investigate the effect of education type. We find no effects of education type when investigating overall types of education, but we find substantial effects when examining a specific type of education program with a particularly high civic content.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • Public trust in manipulated elections: The role of election administration
           and media freedom
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 18 August 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Nicholas Kerr, Anna Lührmann
      As multiparty elections have become a global norm, scholars and policy experts regard public trust in elections as vital for regime legitimacy. However, very few cross-national studies have examined the consequences of electoral manipulation, including the manipulation of election administration and the media, on citizens' trust in elections. This paper addresses this gap by exploring how autonomy of election management bodies (EMBs) and media freedom individually and conjointly shape citizens’ trust in elections. Citizens are more likely to express confidence in elections when EMBs display de-facto autonomy, and less likely to do so when mass media disseminate information independent of government control. Additionally, we suggest that EMB autonomy may not have a positive effect on public trust in elections if media freedom is low. Empirical findings based on recent survey data on public trust in 47 elections and expert data on de-facto EMB autonomy and media freedom support our hypotheses.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • Ideology and strategic party disloyalty in the US house of representatives
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 29 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Justin H. Kirkland, Jonathan B. Slapin
      We offer a theory of strategic party disloyalty to explain roll call voting in the US House. Our theory suggests that ideologically extreme legislators become markedly less loyal to their party when it controls the majority. They stake out positions that align with the views of their extreme constituents when policy is likely to move in their direction. In contrast, ideological moderates become noticeably more loyal when they transition to the majority. Examining 35 years of ideal point estimates and measures of party unity on roll calls, we find clear evidence that member strategy, ideology, and legislative agenda setting interact to structure the frequency of defections. Further, we find evidence that defection and ideology interact to influence subsequent electoral outcomes.

      PubDate: 2017-08-03T03:30:09Z
  • Modeling spending preferences & public policy
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 24 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): J. Alexander Branham, Stephen A. Jessee
      Understanding preferences over government spending is important for understanding electoral behavior and many other aspects of the political world. Using data on relative preferences for more or less spending across different issue areas, we estimate the general spending preferences of individuals and congressional candidates along a left-right spending dimension. Our modeling approach also allows us to estimate the location of policies on this same dimension, permitting direct comparison of people's spending preferences with where they perceive policy to be. We find that public shows very low levels of polarization on spending preferences, even across characteristics like partisanship, ideology, or income level. The distribution of candidates' spending preferences shows much more sorting by party, but candidates are significantly less polarized than is contemporary voting in Congress.

      PubDate: 2017-08-03T03:30:09Z
  • Competing loyalties in electoral reform: An analysis of the U.S. electoral
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 22 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Sheahan G. Virgin
      A central tenet in the electoral systems subfield is that parties, when in power and motivated by partisan interest, seek desired outcomes via the strategic adoption of electoral rules. Such a focus, however, omits a key point: electoral rules also distribute power among geographic units. If, within a party, the partisan and geographic interests of some members conflict, then the canonical relationship between partisanship and rule choice may be conditional. The U.S. electoral college provides an opportunity to test for such intra-party variation, because it advantages some states over others and thus makes salient geographic allegiances. Using an original dataset on one reform proposal—the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)—I find evidence of competing loyalties. Although NPVIC advances furthest when Democrats control state lawmaking, a state's status as a swing—but not as an overrepresented—state weakens the relationship to the point where even Democrats are unlikely to aid NPVIC.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • The elasticity of voter turnout: Investing 85 cents per voter to increase
           voter turnout by 4 percent
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 22 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Mark Schelker, Marco Schneiter
      In the aftermath of elections or ballots, the legitimacy of the result is regularly debated if voter turnout was considered to be low. Hence, discussions about legal reforms to increase turnout are common in most democracies. We analyze the impact of a very small change in voting costs on voter turnout. Some municipalities in the Swiss Canton of Berne reduced voting costs by prepaying the postage of the return envelope (CHF 0.85). Prepaid postage is associated with a statistically significant 1.8 percentage point increase in voter turnout. Overall, this amounts to 4 percent more voters participating in the ballots. Moreover, we estimate the influence of this increase in turnout on party support in popular ballots. We find that social democrats and environmentalists see their relative support decline.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Endogenous ballot structures: The selection of open and closed lists in
           Colombia’s legislative elections
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Susan Achury, Margarita Ramírez, Francisco Cantú
      What are the incentives for parties to personalize electoral competition' This paper proposes that both open and closed lists give congruity, rather than tension, to the interests of party leaders and candidates. However, the efficacy of each list type depends on the electoral returns expected from promoting the partisan and personal vote. To test this argument, we analyze the choices of parties over the ballot structure by leveraging an unusual institutional feature of the Colombian legislative elections, wherein parties are allowed to present either an open or a closed list, varying their choices across electoral districts and contests. Our empirical analysis shows that parties are more likely to open their lists in high-magnitude districts and wherever they have a strong, local electoral organization. We also find a positive relationship between the selection of closed lists among personalist parties, providing evidence to previous arguments proposing a closed list as a tool to concentrate campaign efforts behind a particular candidate.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • A balance between candidate- and party-centric representation under
           mixed-member systems: The evidence from voter behavior in Taiwan
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 20 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Tsung-han Tsai
      Mixed-member systems are usually defined as electoral systems that combine SMDP and CLPR, both of which are more likely to induce party reputation-seeking. Building on the literature of electoral institutions, this article provides an explanation of how mixed-member systems structure voter behavior and achieve a balance between candidate- and party-centric representation. Using Taiwan as a case of MMS, this article tests hypotheses against survey data and investigates the determinants of voting decisions for the two ballots. By employing a Bayesian bivariate probit model, this article shows that, first, partisan factors affect voter behavior in both nominal and list ballots. However, it is affective rather than rational considerations for political parties that play the major role. Second, personal reputation influences voters’ choices of the nominal and list vote, but only negative elements matter for the list vote. Finally, there is a moderately positive correlation between the two ballots, which potentially results from affective, partisan considerations.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Malapportionment and democracy: A curvilinear relationship
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Kian-Ming Ong, Yuko Kasuya, Kota Mori
      This article examines electoral malapportionment by illuminating the relationship between malapportionment level and democracy. Although a seminal study rejects this relationship, we argue that a logical and empirically significant relationship exists, which is curvilinear and is based on a framework focusing on incumbent politicians' incentives and the constraints they face regarding malapportionment. Malapportionment is lowest in established democracies and electoral authoritarian regimes with an overwhelmingly strong incumbent; it is relatively high in new democracies and authoritarian regimes with robust opposition forces. The seminal study's null finding is due to the mismatch between theoretical mechanisms and choice of democracy indices. Employing an original cross-national dataset, we conduct regression analyses; the results support our claims. Furthermore, on controlling the degree of democracy, the single-member district system's effects become insignificant. Australia, Belarus, the Gambia, Japan, Malaysia, Tunisia, and the United States illustrate the political logic underlying curvilinear relations at democracy's various levels.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Blind spots in the party system: Spatial voting and issue salience if
           voters face scarce choices
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Anna-Sophie Kurella, Jan Rosset
      Drawing on spatial models of political competition, this research investigates whether decision weights vary across groups of voters defined by their policy positioning in a two-dimensional space. Our analyses of electoral survey data from England, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland reveal that the economic and cultural dimensions of electoral competition are salient for the vote choice of most groups of voters. However, those voters who hold economically left and culturally right preferences weigh their preferences on the economic dimension much more and discount parties’ position on cultural issues when no party represents their configuration of preferences. Consequently, left parties are less able to attain votes of economically right but culturally libertarian voters for cultural policy reasons, when electoral choices are scarce, while right parties are successful in attaining votes based on both dimensions. As a result, significant representation gaps can occur.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Ethnic diversity decreases turnout. Comparative evidence from over 650
           elections around the world
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Ferran Martinez i Coma, Alessandro Nai
      Ethnic diversity has been shown to play a significant role in public goods provision, economic growth and government quality, to mention a few. However, we do not know which is the impact of ethnic diversity on turnout. In this article, we determine which dimensions of ethnic diversity affects turnout. To do so, we have gathered data from over 650 parliamentary elections in 102 democracies covering over a fifty-year period. Our models and seven complementary robustness checks show that elections in countries with more fractionalised, more polarised and more concentrated ethnic groups have a significantly and substantially lower turnout.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Changing votes or changing voters? How candidates and election context
           swing voters and mobilize the base
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 7 June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Seth J. Hill
      To win elections, candidates attempt to mobilize supporters and persuade swing voters. With what magnitude each operates across American elections is not clear. I argue that the influence of swing voters should depend upon change in the candidates across elections and that the consequences of changes in composition should depend upon the relative balance of campaign expenditures. I estimate a Bayesian hierarchical model on Florida electoral data for house, governor, and senate contests. Swing voters contribute on average 4.1 percentage points to change in party vote shares, while change in turnout influences outcomes by 8.6 points. The effect of swing voters is increasing in the divergence between the Democrat and Republican candidates. Candidates increasingly benefit from the votes of occasional voters as the relative balance of campaign spending increases in their favor. More broadly, the effects of swing voters and turnout are not constant features of American elections, instead varying across time and space in ways related to candidates and context.

      PubDate: 2017-06-12T15:01:53Z
  • Spatial effects and party nationalization: The Geography of partisan
           support in Mexico
    • Abstract: Publication date: June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 47
      Author(s): Imke Harbers
      Nationalization captures the degree to which parties receive similar vote shares throughout the national territory, and is therefore explicitly interested in spatial aspects of party competition. This paper draws on spatial econometrics to analyze how parties compete across space. On the basis of a geo-referenced dataset of support for three major Mexican parties during the 2012 election, the analysis examines why there are spatial patterns of party support beyond what would be expected on the basis of district composition. The paper shows that spatial context has an independent effect on cross-district party performance, and that party support in one district increases the likelihood of party support nearby, thus highlighting why more explicit attention to space is important to understand the origins of nationalization.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • The role of electoral geography in the territorialization of party systems
    • Abstract: Publication date: June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 47
      Author(s): Carolina de Miguel
      When does a country's social structure foster the development of territorialized party systems? This article argues that electoral geography – defined as the interaction between the geography of social diversity and electoral rules– is key to answering this question. I make two claims: first, the impact of geographically concentrated diversity on party system territorialization depends on the proportionality of electoral rules. Second, the types of geographic cleavages (ethnic versus economic) and whether they are overlapping or cross-cutting also affects the likelihood of party system territorialization (conditional on the electoral system). I test these claims with an original dataset measuring party system territorialization in 382 elections across 60 countries that also includes comparable cross-national measures of different types of geographically concentrated diversity (language, race, religion and income). The main conclusion is that proportional electoral systems and cross-cutting cleavages can act as a powerful constraint on the translation of territorial ethnic cleavages into territorialized party systems.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • Electoral systems, ethnic diversity and party systems in developing
    • Abstract: Publication date: June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 47
      Author(s): David Lublin
      Party system nationalization is often viewed as critical to national unity, the production of public goods, and may have implications for democratic success. This paper assesses the impact of ethnic diversity and electoral rules in 74 economically developing democracies. Contrary to past studies, majoritarian electoral systems heighten the tendency of ethnic diversity to reduce nationalization while proportional representation greatly reduces its impact. Presidential systems produce higher levels of nationalization than parliamentary systems but the effect reverses as the number of presidential candidates increases. Though ethnic party bans may increase nationalization, ballot access requirements, the level of freedom, and relative prosperity have no effect.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • The strategic effect of the plurality vote at the district level
    • Abstract: Publication date: June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 47
      Author(s): Daniel Bochsler
      The plurality vote (first-past-the-post) is one of the most restrictive electoral systems used for parliamentary elections. Empirically, its deterring effect on small political parties has been widely studied at the national level, while theoretical arguments highlight its strategic effect at the district level. This paper argues that the strategic effect, reducing the votes expressed for minor parties in plurality vote systems, is uneven across districts. The strongest strategic effect is expected in very competitive constituencies, where the two strongest candidates are in close competition with each other. The paper estimates the effect empirically, based on electoral results for minor political parties from six parliamentary democracies using the plurality vote. The methodology proposed in this paper allows me to separate sociological or geographical factors from strategic factors affecting party support. Results show that due to the strategic effect, minor parties lose some 15% of their votes in very competitive districts.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • Legislative policy-making authority, party system size, and party system
    • Abstract: Publication date: June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 47
      Author(s): Allen Hicken, Heather Stoll
      How does the internal organization of legislatures shape the legislative party system? We argue that the size and nationalization of the national legislative party system is related to the size of the legislative prize—namely, to how the legislature's internal rules and structures concentrate policy-making authority in the hands of the largest party. To test this argument, we draw on studies of legislative organization to develop a measure of the concentration of legislative policy-making authority. Using two time series cross sectional data sets of post-war elections, one of advanced industrial democracies with pure parliamentary systems and one of all advanced industrial democracies, we find support for our argument and note that the effect of internal legislative structures is larger than that of the electoral system. We also show that the incentives to aggregate and consolidate the legislative party system are generally stronger where there are few external constraints on the legislature.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • The nationalization of presidential elections in the Americas
    • Abstract: Publication date: June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 47
      Author(s): Eduardo Alemán, Marisa Kellam
      This article examines the nationalization of electoral change in presidential elections. It presents a technique to measure the national electoral swing and the subnational deviation in the electoral swing for each major presidential contender, for each consecutive pair of elections. The national swing indicates the uniform shift across electoral districts, whereas the subnational deviation indicates the extent of new district-level variation for any particular election. In addition, the nationalization score reveals the relative magnitude of the national and subnational components of district-level electoral change, which has the advantage of allowing comparisons across countries, parties, and elections. The article analyzes relative nationalization scores for all major candidates in 74 presidential elections from 14 countries in the Americas, and for electoral change that occurs between first and second round contests in majority run-off presidential elections.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • Issue clarity in electoral competition: Insights from Austria
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 26 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Katrin Praprotnik
      This paper analyses parties' policy supply in electoral campaigns. In so doing, it proposes to look at issue clarity which is defined as the share of objectively testable pledges within an election manifesto. The main argument states that parties not only decide their positions and issue saliencies, but also the level of specificity with which they present their policies. The data come from Austria (1990–2008) and, thus, provide a good example for a Western European multi-party system with proportional representation. The analyses show that extreme parties present manifestos with higher issue clarity compared to moderate parties. Furthermore, this result is strengthened by a party's role in government. Issue ownership, however, seems to have no effect on issue clarity.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 24 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Arndt Leininger, Lea Heyne
      Direct democracy allows citizens to reverse decisions made by legislatures and even initiate new laws which parliaments are unwilling to pass, thereby, as its proponents argue, leading to more representative policies than would have obtained under a purely representative democracy. Yet, turnout in referendums is usually lower than in parliamentary elections and tends to be skewed towards citizens of high socio-economic status. Consequently, critics of direct democracy argue that referendum outcomes may not be representative of the preferences of the population at large. We test this assertion using a compilation of post-referendum surveys encompassing 148 national referendums held in Switzerland between 1981 and 1999. Uniquely, these surveys also asked non-voters about their opinion on the referendum's subject. Comparing opinion majorities in the surveys against actual referendum outcomes we show that representativeness increases slightly in turnout as well as over time. However, we find only few cases where the outcome would have been more representative even under full turnout vis-a vis a counterfactual representative outcome. Thus, our results are in line with research on the turnout effect in elections: Higher turnout would not radically change the outcome of votes. On balance we find more cases where referendums provided more representative outcomes than cases where the outcome was unrepresentative vis-a-vis representative democracy. Hence, we conclude that, overall, direct democracy seems to improve representation in Switzerland.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • Ballot design and invalid votes: Evidence from Colombia
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 24 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Mónica Pachón, Royce Carroll, Hernando Barragán

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • The local roots of the participation gap: Inequality and voter turnout
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 19 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): John Bartle, Sarah Birch, Mariana Skirmuntt
      It is generally accepted that the rich are more likely to participate in politics than the poor. It is also generally accepted that the probability than an individual will participate in elections is influenced by the gap between the rich and the poor. There is little agreement, however, about whether inequality across time and space increases or decreases participation. In this paper we examine the impact of inequality across space. We suggest that the impact of inequality depends crucially on whether it is defined in terms of variations between geographical units (‘segregation’) or within geographical units (‘heterogeneity’). Evidence to support this argument is drawn from multi-level British data. Heterogeneity has a mildly positive effect on participation but this effect seems to be outweighed by the negative impact of segregation. The effect of segregation, moreover, is most pronounced among the poorer sections of the population, indicating that geographical isolation among the poor ('ghettoization') leads to lower turnout among these groups.

      PubDate: 2017-05-22T14:00:14Z
  • Levels or changes?: Ethnic context, immigration and the UK
           Independence party vote
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 19 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Eric Kaufmann
      Will the rising share of ethnic minorities in western societies spark a backlash or lead to greater acceptance of diversity? This paper examines this question through the prism of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the most successful populist right party in British history. The paper contributes to work on contextual effects by arguing that ethnic levels and changes cross-pressure white opinion and voting. It argues that high levels of established ethnic minorities reduce opposition to immigration and support for UKIP among White Britons. Conversely, more rapid ethnic changes increase opposition to immigration and support for UKIP. Longitudinal data demonstrates that these effects are not produced by self-selection. The data further illustrate that with time, diversity levels increase their threat-reducing power while the threatening effects of ethnic change fade. Results suggest that the contextual effects literature needs to routinely unpack levels from changes. This also suggests that if the pace of immigration slows, immigration attitudes should soften and populist right voting decline.

      PubDate: 2017-05-22T14:00:14Z
  • On the mismeasurement of sincere and strategic voting in mixed-member
           electoral systems
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Carolina Plescia
      Under mixed systems, voters cast two votes to elect the same legislative body: one vote for parties using proportional rules and one for candidates using majoritarian rules. Voters are said to cast straight-tickets if the candidate they vote for is of the same party as their proportional vote; otherwise, they are said to cast split-tickets. Split-ticket voting is commonly used as a measure of strategic voting as splitters are usually assumed to express their true preference in one vote but vote strategically in the other. This study challenges this practice showing that split-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate strategic voting, just as straight-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate a sincere vote. This result has wider consequences as it indicates that measuring strategic voting from observed behaviour can result in incorrect conclusions about vote choice.

      PubDate: 2017-05-18T12:12:26Z
  • Masters of their fate? Explaining MPs’ re-candidacy in the long run: The
           case of Italy (1987–2013)
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 13 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Bruno Marino, Nicola Martocchia Diodati
      Why are certain Members of Parliament (MPs) more likely to get re-candidacy for national legislative elections, therefore having the possibility to continue their career? This article answers this question by comparing political elites' long-debated explanations with more legislative behaviour-related factors. By focusing on more than 25 years of the Italian Lower House's history, we have built a novel dataset on the legislative behaviour and career patterns of more than 3500 Italian MPs. A multilevel logistic regression analysis shows that, with the exception of party switching, legislative behaviour does not seem to exert a significant impact on MPs' re-candidacy. On the contrary, the career status of parliamentarians, i.e., their parliamentary position or their ministerial historical record, strongly influences their chances of obtaining re-candidacy.

      PubDate: 2017-05-18T12:12:26Z
  • Demonisation and electoral support for populist radical right parties: A
           temporary effect
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Sjoerdje Charlotte van Heerden, Wouter van der Brug
      Since the 1980s, Western Europe has experienced the surge of populist radical right parties. In an attempt to ward off these electoral newcomers, established parties have pursued strategies of disengagement, such as exclusion and de-legitimisation. This study examines the electoral effects of an excessive form of de-legitimisation, which we label ‘demonisation’. We estimate the effects of demonisation on electoral support for the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV) and its predecessor Groep Wilders. Time series analyses show that demonisation has a negative effect on electoral support, but only for Groep Wilders. Once the populist radical right party has made a successful entry into the party system, demonisation does not have its intended consequences.

      PubDate: 2017-04-26T16:57:30Z
  • The “timeline” method of studying electoral dynamics
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 11 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Christopher Wlezien, Will Jennings, Robert Erikson
      To study the evolution of electoral preferences, Erikson and Wlezien (2012) propose assessing the correspondence between pre-election polls and the vote in a set of elections. That is, they treat poll data not as a set of time series but as a series of cross-sections—across elections—for each day of the election cycle. This “timeline” method does not provide complete information, but does reveal general patterns of electoral dynamics, and has been applied to elections in numerous countries. The application of the method involves a number of decisions that have not been explicitly addressed in previous research, however. There are three primary issues: (1) how best to assess the evolution of preferences; (2) how to deal with missing data; and (3) the consequences of sampling error. This paper considers each of these issues and provides answers. In the end, the analyses suggest that simpler approaches are better. It also may be that a more general strategy is possible, in which scholars could explicitly model the variation in poll-vote error across countries, elections, parties and time. We consider that direction for future research in the concluding section.

      PubDate: 2017-04-12T08:50:04Z
  • Assessing the validity of the Manifesto Common Space Scores
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 6 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jan-Erik Flentje, Thomas König, Moritz Marbach
      RILE estimates based on party manifesto data suggest that political parties leapfrog on the left-right scale over time. This implausible finding has raised questions about the efficacy not only of RILE for estimating left-right positions but of coded party manifestos for political science research in general. The recently developed Manifesto Common Space Scores (MCSS), which reduce leapfrogging by accounting for the election-specific character of party manifestos, provide alternative estimates for parties left/right-positions, but little is known about their validity. This study shows that MCSS estimates exhibit greater convergent validity relative to RILE estimates when compared to other measures of parties left/right-positions. It also finds that MCSS has greater construct validity relative to RILE estimates in two prominent cases (Greece and Italy). Overall, the findings underscore the election-specific character of party manifestos and demonstrate that MCSS is a useful alternative measure of parties’ left-right positions.

      PubDate: 2017-04-12T08:50:04Z
  • Internet voting and turnout: Evidence from Switzerland
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 March 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Micha Germann, Uwe Serdült
      Internet voting (i-voting) is often discussed as a potential remedy against declining turnout rates. This paper presents new evidence on the causal effect of i-voting on turnout, drawing on trials conducted in two Swiss cantons: Geneva and Zurich. Both Geneva and Zurich constitute hard cases for i-voting, given that i-voting was introduced in the presence of postal voting. However, this setting allows us to test some of the more optimistic claims regarding i-voting's ability to increase turnout. Empirically, we exploit the advantageous circumstance that federal legislation created a situation coming close to a natural experiment, with some of Geneva's and Zurich's municipalities participating in i-voting trials and others not. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find that i-voting did not increase turnout in the cantons of Geneva and Zurich.

      PubDate: 2017-03-12T16:58:02Z
  • Symposium on “The Nationalization of Electoral Politics: Frontiers of
           Research”, forthcoming in Electoral Studies
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 7 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Daniele Caramani, Ken Kollman

      PubDate: 2017-02-12T03:15:20Z
  • What creates heterogeneity in ballot order effects? Evidence from Korea's
           local elections of education superintendent
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 December 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Byung-hill Jun, Heechul Min
      This paper explores the gains in vote shares accrued to an election candidate listed first on a ballot and examines how the gains vary with characteristics of elections and voters. Korea's election of education superintendent and its rule determining the name order of candidates provide a rare natural experiment to study ballot order effects. This paper proposes an empirical framework that addresses the aggregation problem that is prevalent in the related literature. According to the results, being listed first gives a positive premium for a majority of candidates and the gains are notable for less educated voters and in elections without an incumbent or strong candidate. This paper has also showed that different ballot order would have changed winners in some elections.

      PubDate: 2016-12-27T03:24:54Z
  • How party nationalization conditions economic voting
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 2 December 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Scott Morgenstern, Noah Smith, Alejandro Trelles
      In this article we analyze the conditioning effect of party nationalization, and in particular dynamic nationalization, on economic voting. While previous single-country and cross-national studies suggest a weak correlation between economic conditions and voting patterns, we argue that this relationship is conditioned by the degree to which parties are dynamically nationalized. Using both case study and large-n analysis, we show first that retrospective voting can be more nationalized than prospective voting. We then argue that national economic conditions cannot and do not relate to voting patterns, at least when weak dynamic nationalization is weak. The findings also call into question the well-known thesis about the clarity of responsibility as a conditional factor in explaining retrospective (economic) voting. There is imperfect correspondence between “clarity of responsibility” and dynamic party nationalization, but retrospective voting presumes that voters across the country respond in kind. This explains why the only evidence we find of a correlation of national economic indicators and voting is when there is high dynamic nationalization.

      PubDate: 2016-12-05T03:34:55Z
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