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POLITICAL SCIENCE (801 journals)                  1 2 3 4 5 | Last

Showing 1 - 200 of 281 Journals sorted alphabetically
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Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Critical Reviews on Latin American Research     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
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        1 2 3 4 5 | Last

Journal Cover Electoral Studies
  [SJR: 1.371]   [H-I: 44]   [34 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 0261-3794
   Published by Elsevier Homepage  [3177 journals]
  • Local elites, electoral reform and the distribution of central government
           funds: Evidence from Romania
    • Authors: Emanuel Emil Coman
      Pages: 1 - 10
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 14 February 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Emanuel Emil Coman
      How does the party affiliation of local elites influence the distribution of central government funds to territorial units' We revisit this question with the help of a new dataset on spending from Romania (2004–2011), a dataset that allows us to better understand the mechanisms linking local leaders to government spending, mechanisms that have not been systematically tested in the literature. Specifically we exploit the 2008 Romanian electoral reform in a research design that resembles a natural experiment. We identify two causal mechanisms that link the political affiliation of local elites to the receipt of government funds: (1) central leaders share the credit for the funds allocated with local leaders, and to get the most electoral benefits they are more likely to allocate funds to territories with leaders from the same party who act as vehicles for government credit claim; (2) central and local leaders engage in an exchange of perks game in which local leaders mobilize local resources in national electoral campaigns and receive in exchange funds from the government, which in turn help these local elites build a reputation and increase their re-election chances.

      PubDate: 2018-02-25T15:42:34Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.01.008
      Issue No: Vol. 53 (2018)
  • Term limits and voter turnout
    • Authors: Francisco José Veiga; Linda Gonçalves Veiga
      Pages: 20 - 28
      Abstract: Publication date: June 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 53
      Author(s): Francisco José Veiga, Linda Gonçalves Veiga
      This paper studies the impact of binding term limits on voter turnout, analyzing the Portuguese experience at the local government level, where the institutional reform was exogenously imposed by the national parliament. Although instrumental, expressive, and information-based theories of voter participation imply effects of term limits on turnout, this is clearly an under-researched topic. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to data at both the municipal and parish levels, we find robust evidence that the presence of term-limited incumbents has a positive impact on voter participation.

      PubDate: 2018-04-15T13:33:49Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.03.001
      Issue No: Vol. 53 (2018)
  • 'First-order thinking' in second-order contests: A comparison of local,
           regional and European elections in Spain
    • Authors: Laura Cabeza
      Pages: 29 - 38
      Abstract: Publication date: June 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 53
      Author(s): Laura Cabeza

      PubDate: 2018-04-15T13:33:49Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.03.004
      Issue No: Vol. 53 (2018)
  • Reconsidering the partner effect on voting
    • Authors: Moa Frödin Gruneau
      Pages: 48 - 56
      Abstract: Publication date: June 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 53
      Author(s): Moa Frödin Gruneau
      A large literature finds a positive relationship between marriage and turnout. However, previous research has ignored the characteristics of the partner. This paper contributes by studying how a partner's education level is associated with individual turnout. The data cover the US for a time period of more than 40 years, as well as 24 European countries over a time period of 12 years. Including the partner's education level in a model of who votes shows that the partner effect on voting may have been misinterpreted in the previous literature. The relationship between having a partner and turnout is not as general as it is often assumed. Instead of a small positive effect for a large proportion of the population (married people), there is a substantively larger association between turnout and a small proportion of the population, namely, the less-educated individuals who have a highly educated partner.

      PubDate: 2018-04-15T13:33:49Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.03.003
      Issue No: Vol. 53 (2018)
  • A Bayesian explanation for the effect of incumbency
    • Authors: Anthony Fowler
      Pages: 66 - 78
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 30 March 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Anthony Fowler
      Incumbents appear to perform better in elections because they are incumbents, yet the most commonly proposed explanations for this phenomenon are unsatisfying. I introduce a new explanation that is simple, parsimonious, and largely consistent with empirical evidence. If voters lack perfect information about electoral candidates, incumbency is an informative signal of quality, and voters will update their beliefs accordingly. I formalize these claims with a decision-theoretic model where voters receive noisy signals of candidate quality, and I discuss several empirical phenomena consistent with this explanation. For example, when voters learn that their incumbent barely won office, they are less likely to support reelection and the effect of incumbency largely disappears.

      PubDate: 2018-04-15T13:33:49Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.03.005
      Issue No: Vol. 53 (2018)
  • One size doesn't fit all: Voter decision criteria heterogeneity and vote
    • Authors: Rune Stubager; Henrik Bech Seeberg; Florence So
      Pages: 1 - 10
      Abstract: Publication date: April 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 52
      Author(s): Rune Stubager, Henrik Bech Seeberg, Florence So
      Although classic voting studies noted that voters may reach their voting decision on the basis of different criteria most contemporary voting studies assume that one voting model fits all. Building on the limited, but developing literature on the topic, this paper develops and tests models incorporating voter decision criteria heterogeneity. Paying particular attention to the role of voter sophistication, we investigate which voters mainly decide on the basis of ideology, position and valence issues, or party leaders, and how these differences influence their party choices. Analyses using mixed logit and a specially-designed survey instrument embedded in a high-quality, nationally representative survey of Danish voters show that decision criteria heterogeneity has substantial influence on the vote. The conclusion discusses the normative implications, in particular the question of whether voters’ reliance on party leaders constitutes a democratic problem.

      PubDate: 2018-02-05T14:53:51Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.12.002
      Issue No: Vol. 52 (2018)
  • Whither the party vote bonus' Stand-down agreements in Ukraine's
           mixed-member system
    • Authors: Stephen Bloom; Frank Thames
      Pages: 46 - 57
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 31 January 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Stephen Bloom, Frank Thames
      Comparative research on mixed-member systems suggests that parties have an incentive to nominate nominal-tier candidates in as many districts as possible, as placing candidates in even marginal districts can increase parties’ list-tier vote. Yet studies have documented many instances where parties fail to field candidates. We examine stand-down agreements—where parties coordinate the withdrawal of candidates—to understand why parties forgo a party vote bonus. Our interviews document that Ukrainian politicians—while acting strategically—were not concerned over the loss of a party vote bonus when they negotiated the withdrawal of candidates from districts. Our theoretical discussion explains that the incentive for parties to field candidates to obtain a party vote bonus is often insufficient. Using district data from the 2012 Ukrainian elections, we measure the party vote bonus. We show that the bonus gained by parties was small, dependent upon the quality of the candidate, and varied by party.

      PubDate: 2018-02-05T14:53:51Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.01.005
      Issue No: Vol. 52 (2018)
  • Kinship, partisanship, and patronage in Arab elections
    • Authors: Daniel Corstange
      Pages: 58 - 72
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 31 January 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Daniel Corstange
      This paper examines the connection between kinship, partisanship, and patronage voting in Arab world elections. It argues that tribes and extended families enjoy structural advantages that reduce transaction costs in patron–client exchanges, making kinship voting a pragmatic strategy in clientelistic vote markets with weak parties. Using data from seven Arab countries, it demonstrates that patronage oriented voters place greater weight on candidates' kinship affiliations and deemphasize other attributes such as morality, ability, and issue positions. It also shows that patronage considerations correspond to greater importance placed on kinship over partisan affiliations, consistent with the low credibility and modest capacity of the Arab world's weak and personalized parties to deliver benefits to voters.

      PubDate: 2018-02-05T14:53:51Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.01.006
      Issue No: Vol. 52 (2018)
  • Do private donations depress electoral turnout' An empirical
           investigation of voter participation
    • Authors: Kiril Kolev; Anushah Jiwani
      Pages: 73 - 83
      Abstract: Publication date: April 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 52
      Author(s): Kiril Kolev, Anushah Jiwani
      This paper assesses the hypothesis that the increasing reliance of political parties and candidates on certain types of private donations could be one of the key factors behind declining voter turnout, even in established and consolidated democratic regimes. To disentangle this relationship, it highlights seven institutional arrangements that are likely to limit the extent to which private actors can make political contributions. The empirical analysis demonstrates that, while certain regulations indeed lead to higher voter participation, the relationship is nuanced. For example, bans to corporate donations improve turnout only when they prevent companies with government ties from donating money. In addition, what seems to bolster voter participation greatly is limiting the amount a private donor can contribute, as well as requiring parties and candidates to reveal the identity of their donors. The analysis also demonstrates that voter confidence in the government is one plausible causal mechanism linking finance regulations and turnout. Depending on the particular regulation adopted, turnout can be boosted between 3.4 and 8.6 percent.

      PubDate: 2018-02-25T15:42:34Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.01.003
      Issue No: Vol. 52 (2018)
  • Selective contestation: The impact of decentralization on ethnoterritorial
           party electoral strategy
    • Authors: Bonnie M. Meguid
      Pages: 94 - 102
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 January 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Bonnie M. Meguid
      Since the 1970s, national governments across Western Europe have decentralized significant powers to subnational authorities. Recent work has found that the degree of decentralization affects ethnoterritorial party vote in national and subnational elections. This paper asks the prior question: what effect does decentralization have on a party's decision to field candidates' I find that as decentralization reforms shift power to the region, ethnoterritorial parties likewise shift their electoral strategy away from contesting national elections. An examination of regional-level data from nine Western European countries reveals ethnoterritorial parties reduce their contestation of national elections when a directly elected regional assembly is established and significant administrative, fiscal and policymaking competencies are transferred to the region. Further supporting the view of decentralization as policy appeasement, this exit effect is limited to ethnoterritorial parties demanding regional autonomy; secessionist parties continue to pursue full contestation strategies regardless of the level of decentralization.

      PubDate: 2018-02-05T14:53:51Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.01.001
      Issue No: Vol. 52 (2018)
  • Looking for locals under a closed-list proportional representation system:
           The case of Portugal
    • Authors: Ana Espírito-Santo; Edalina Rodrigues Sanches
      Pages: 117 - 127
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 January 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Ana Espírito-Santo, Edalina Rodrigues Sanches
      Parties' motivation to include locals depends on the characteristics of the electoral system. This article analyzes where on the lists parties choose to position locals under closed-list proportional representation systems. Furthermore, it also investigates how that choice varies depending on two key district factors, namely district magnitude and whether or not the district is in a peripheral region. To that end, it draws on an original biographical data set of candidates for the Portuguese National Parliament (1983, 1995, 2002, 2005 and 2009). The findings show that there are fewer “locals” among the higher positions on the candidates’ lists and among heads of lists. District magnitude and peripheral region effects go in the expected direction, but these effects are small.

      PubDate: 2018-02-05T14:53:51Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.01.004
      Issue No: Vol. 52 (2018)
  • Evidence of a winning-cohesion tradeoff under multi-winner ranked-choice
    • Authors: Jack Santucci
      Pages: 128 - 138
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 1 February 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jack Santucci
      New interest in "multi-winner ranked-choice voting" raises old questions about effects on party cohesion. Earlier scholars thought this single transferable vote (STV) rule was net-problematic for parties. This paper consults the roll-call and electoral records in Cincinnati (1929-57) and Worcester, Mass. (1949-60), two of three American STV implementations that produced conventional wisdom. First, I show how party cohesion could be high or low. Then I show how low-cohesion terms followed elections in which candidates campaigned for themselves over their parties. Finally, I show that parties endorsed such candidates when they needed the votes to expand their seat shares. In sum, the data suggest a strategic environment in which majority-seeking parties reach beyond their traditional bases – potentially at the expense of legislative cohesion. Whether that is good or bad depends on the value we give to cohesion.

      PubDate: 2018-02-05T14:53:51Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.11.003
      Issue No: Vol. 52 (2018)
  • Elusive indeed – The mechanical versus psychological effects of
           electoral rules at the district level
    • Authors: Philipp Harfst; Sarah C. Dingler; Jessica Fortin-Rittberger; Julian Noseck; Sven Kosanke
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 14 April 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Philipp Harfst, Sarah C. Dingler, Jessica Fortin-Rittberger, Julian Noseck, Sven Kosanke
      While electoral research has become one of political science's most fertile areas, to date no empirical contribution has addressed the three mechanisms of the electoral chain – strategic entry, strategic voting, and the electoral system's mechanical effect – in a coherent analytical framework. This paper addresses this shortcoming by analysing the effect of electoral systems on party system size, accounting for all three mechanisms. Our study yields three major findings drawing on constituency-level data covering 462 electoral districts in Finland and Portugal between 1962 and 2011. First, macro-sociological context, measured as cleavages, operate at the district level: An increase in the heterogeneity within a constituency significantly increases party system size. Second, in the two established democracies we examine, we observe that district-level bottom-up coordination takes places. Finally, while our analyses reveal that some strategic voting takes places, it is blurred by a comparatively large amount of non-strategic behaviour by voters. The variance we find surrounding psychological effects is too large to exert a targeted impact. In sum, the mechanical effect turns out to be the most decisive link of the electoral chain.

      PubDate: 2018-04-15T13:33:49Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.04.001
  • Do electoral handouts affect voting behavior'
    • Authors: Jenny Guardado; Leonard Wantchékon
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 5 April 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jenny Guardado, Leonard Wantchékon
      The literature on vote-buying often assumes a complete transaction of cash for votes. While there is ample evidence that candidates target certain voters with cash handouts, it is unclear whether these actually result in higher turnout and vote-shares for the distributing party. Empirically, we find that cash handouts have a small to no effect on either turnout or vote-shares when using different matching techniques and accounting for district-level factors during the 2011 Beninese presidential election. We cross-validate these results with additional surveys from four other African countries (Kenya, Mali, Botswana, and Uganda). Results suggest that, at least in these contexts, vote-buying can be best understood as an incomplete transaction between candidates and voters, and that handouts from multiple parties as well as district-level traits (e.g. clientelism, public goods) partly account for the small effects observed.

      PubDate: 2018-04-15T13:33:49Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.11.002
  • Asymmetric evaluations: Government popularity and economic performance in
           the United Kingdom
    • Authors: Roland Kappe
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 26 February 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Roland Kappe
      This article introduces a new method for testing asymmetric, reference-point-dependent behaviour in economic voting. Specifically, prospect theory suggests that people exhibit loss aversion, which crucially depends on a reference point. In practice, this reference point is often unknown. This article proposes a procedure to estimate reference points from the data using threshold models, and then test whether above- and below reference point effects are equivalent, or whether negative changes have stronger effects as predicted by prospect theory. This method is applied to the relationship between economic performance and government popularity in the United Kingdom, using monthly time series data over the last thirty years. The results show that there is asymmetric, reference-point-dependent behaviour, most notably in the relationship between unemployment and government popularity.

      PubDate: 2018-04-15T13:33:49Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.02.002
  • Decomposing political knowledge: What is confidence in knowledge and why
           it matters
    • Authors: Seonghui Lee; Akitaka Matsuo
      Pages: 1 - 13
      Abstract: Publication date: February 2018
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 51
      Author(s): Seonghui Lee, Akitaka Matsuo
      While political knowledge has been conceptually defined with two constructs – accuracy and confidence in factual information – conventional measurement of political knowledge has relied heavily on retrieval accuracy. Without measuring confidence-in-knowledge, it is not possible to rigorously identify different types of political informedness, such as misinformedness and uninformedness. This article theoretically explores the two constructs of knowledge and argues that each construct has unique antecedents and behavioral consequences. We suggest a survey instrument for confidence-in-knowledge and introduce a method to estimate latent traits of retrieval accuracy and confidence separately. Using our original survey that includes the measure of confidence-in-knowledge, we find that misinformed citizens are as engaged in politics as the well-informed, but their active involvement does not guarantee informed political choices. Our findings warrant further theoretical and empirical exploration of confidence in political knowledge.

      PubDate: 2017-12-12T15:05:56Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.11.005
      Issue No: Vol. 51 (2017)
  • The Matthew effect in electoral campaigns: Increasing policy congruence
           inequality during the campaign
    • Authors: Stefaan Walgrave; Christophe Lesschaeve
      Pages: 1 - 14
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 8 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Stefaan Walgrave, Christophe Lesschaeve

      PubDate: 2017-09-13T22:36:07Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.001
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • Irrationalizing the rational choice model of voting: The moderating
           effects of partisanship on turnout decisions in Western and postcommunist
    • Authors: Dong-Joon Jung
      Pages: 26 - 38
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 9 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Dong-Joon Jung
      The rational choice model of voting has been criticized by the fact that citizens expecting greater costs than the benefits associated with voting still turn out. This article focuses on the function of partisanship by which the effect of the rational calculation on voting is moderated. Previous studies have only tested the effect of partisanship on turnout additively failing to explore its interactions with the costs and benefits of voting. My multilevel analyses using the CSES data show that partisanship significantly moderates the effects of the information costs and intrinsic benefits of voting on turnout. These results, however, are not found in the postcommunist new democracies with unstable party system hindering partisanship from serving as a political cue and providing an expressive satisfaction of voting.

      PubDate: 2017-09-13T22:36:07Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.005
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • How voter mobilization from short text messages travels within households
           and families: Evidence from two nationwide field experiments
    • Authors: Yosef Bhatti; Jens Olav Dahlgaard; Jonas Hedegaard Hansen; Kasper M. Hansen
      Pages: 39 - 49
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 5 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Yosef Bhatti, Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Jonas Hedegaard Hansen, Kasper M. Hansen
      Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately 30 percent spilled over to other persons in the household, even parents. The effects are subtle and we cannot with certainty establish that a spillover effect exists. However, we demonstrate, using Bayesian updating, that even an initial skeptic becomes close to convinced that the effect spills over. Our study provides evidence by suggesting that young individuals’ decision to vote affect other household members, including their parents, to do the same. When young voters live without their parents, we find no evidence of spillovers to parents, suggesting that households are more important than families ties for turnout contagion.

      PubDate: 2017-09-07T22:18:21Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.003
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • Public trust in manipulated elections: The role of election administration
           and media freedom
    • Authors: Nicholas Kerr; Anna Lührmann
      Pages: 50 - 67
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 18 August 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Nicholas Kerr, Anna Lührmann
      As multiparty elections have become a global norm, scholars and policy experts regard public trust in elections as vital for regime legitimacy. However, very few cross-national studies have examined the consequences of electoral manipulation, including the manipulation of election administration and the media, on citizens' trust in elections. This paper addresses this gap by exploring how autonomy of election management bodies (EMBs) and media freedom individually and conjointly shape citizens’ trust in elections. Citizens are more likely to express confidence in elections when EMBs display de-facto autonomy, and less likely to do so when mass media disseminate information independent of government control. Additionally, we suggest that EMB autonomy may not have a positive effect on public trust in elections if media freedom is low. Empirical findings based on recent survey data on public trust in 47 elections and expert data on de-facto EMB autonomy and media freedom support our hypotheses.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.08.003
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • Appealing to the ‘losers’' The electorates of left-wing and
           right-wing Eurosceptic parties compared, 1989–2014
    • Authors: Erika J. van Elsas
      Pages: 68 - 79
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Erika J. van Elsas

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.013
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • It's the emotions, Stupid!Anger about the economic crisis, low political
           efficacy, and support for populist parties
    • Authors: Gabriele Magni
      Pages: 91 - 102
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Gabriele Magni
      This study examines the impact of anger about the economic crisis on electoral participation and voting behavior. Previous work on emotions has consistently underlined the mobilization potential of anger. The economic crisis has generated widespread anger, but political disengagement, rather than mobilization, and growing support for populist parties have emerged as the dominant effects. This is because the impact of anger about the crisis is moderated by political efficacy. Among citizens with low efficacy, anger decreased electoral participation and fueled support for populist parties. In contrast, among citizens with high efficacy, anger promoted participation and increased support for mainstream opposition parties. I use the 2005–2010 British election panel, which allows me to address endogeneity concerns, control for pre-crisis engagement and other negative emotions, and perform causal mediation analysis. This work contributes to the study of emotions and voting behavior; support for populist parties; and the political consequences of the crisis.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.014
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • Exit to the right' Comparing far right voters and abstainers in
           Western Europe
    • Authors: Trevor J. Allen
      Pages: 103 - 115
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Trevor J. Allen
      This article compares far right voters in Western Europe with citizens who abstain from electoral participation. Political dissatisfaction is thought to motivate both forms of political behavior. Low levels of formal education are also significantly predictive of both abstention and far right support. This study implements a multilevel multinomial logistic regression comparing nonvoters, far right voters, and voters for other parties from 2002 to 2012. The results suggest that common predictors distinguishing far right voters, such as education and political distrust, do not distinguish far right voters from abstainers. However, measures of social integration, including union membership, self-reported social activity, and trust in other people, are positively predictive of far right over abstention. Conversely, far right party voters and voters for other parties display similar levels of political interest and social integration. Other issues, such as Euroskepticism and anti-immigrant attitudes are more common among far right voters, and distinguish them from both other voters and those who just stay home.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.012
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • When heuristics go bad: Citizens' misevaluations of campaign pledge
    • Authors: François Pétry; Dominic Duval
      Pages: 116 - 127
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): François Pétry, Dominic Duval
      We use data from a large survey of Quebec citizens to clarify under what conditions the use of heuristic shortcuts increases or decreases the accuracy of citizens' evaluations of specific pledge fulfilment. In line with the rational public hypothesis, we find that citizens' evaluations often conform to the actual pledge fulfilment performance of the government. However, consistent with the “bad heuristics” and “motivated reasoning” hypotheses, we find that many citizens’ evaluations are biased. Some stereotypes induce citizens to evaluate pledges positively irrespective of actual performance, misleading them into making inaccurate evaluations of pledges that are actually unfulfilled. Other stereotypes prompt citizens to evaluate pledges negatively irrespective of actual performance, misleading them into making inaccurate evaluations of pledges that are actually fulfilled. Although political knowledge increases the accuracy of evaluation of fulfilled pledges, it fails to increase the accuracy of evaluations of unfulfilled pledges.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.010
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • Ethnicity and electoral fraud in Britain
    • Authors: Noah Carl
      Pages: 128 - 136
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Noah Carl
      Several reports have highlighted that, within Britain, allegations of electoral fraud tend to be more common in areas with large Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. However, the extent of this association has not yet been quantified. Using data at the local authority level, this paper shows that percentage Pakistani and Bangladeshi (logged) is a robust predictor of two measures of electoral fraud allegations: one based on designations by the Electoral Commission, and one based on police enquiries. Indeed, the association persists after controlling for other minority shares, demographic characteristics, socio-economic deprivation, and anti-immigration attitudes. I interpret this finding with reference to the growing literature on consanguinity (cousin marriage) and corruption. Rates of cousin marriage tend to be high in countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, which may have fostered norms of nepotism and in-group favoritism that persist over time. To bolster my interpretation, I use individual level survey data to show that, within Europe, immigrants from countries with high rates of cousin marriage are more likely to say that family should be one's main priority in life, and are less likely to say it is wrong for a public official to request a bribe.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
      DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.011
      Issue No: Vol. 50 (2017)
  • Decentralization and democratic participation: The effect of subnational
           self-rule on voting in Latin America and the Caribbean
    • Authors: Sara Niedzwiecki; Alissandra Stoyan
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 December 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Sara Niedzwiecki, Alissandra T. Stoyan
      Previous literature on the consequences of decentralization has demonstrated a positive effect on voter participation in subnational elections. However, does this positive effect also extend to national level elections' This paper evaluates the consequences of decentralization for national level political participation. Our approach innovates by disaggregating decentralization to uncover the specific dimensions that matter for voting participation. We argue that self-rule (or the authority that subnational units exercise in their own territory) is closely associated with vertical accountability and positively affects voting participation. Moreover, we find that political dimensions of self-rule matter more than fiscal dimensions. Shared-rule (or the authority that subnational units exercise in the country as a whole) has no significant effect on participation since it is more closely related to horizontal accountability. We test our theory in 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries using a hierarchical model with 2010 data at the national and individual-level.

      PubDate: 2017-12-27T13:21:49Z
  • Voter preferences and party loyalty under cumulative voting: Political
           behaviour after electoral reform in Bremen and Hamburg
    • Authors: Shaun Bowler; Gail McElroy Stefan
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 8 December 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Shaun Bowler, Gail McElroy, Stefan Müller
      Many electoral systems constrain voters to one or two votes at election time. Reformers often see this as a failing because voters' preferences are both broader and more varied than the number of choices allowed. New electoral systems therefore often permit more preferences to be expressed. In this paper we examine what happens when cumulative voting is introduced in two German states. Even when we allow for tactical considerations, we find that the principle of unconstrained choice is not widely embraced by voters, although in practice, too, many seem to have preferences for more than just one party. This finding has implications for arguments relating to electoral reform as well as how to conceive of party affiliations in multi-party systems.

      PubDate: 2017-12-12T15:05:56Z
  • Age, sex, qualifications and voting at recent English general elections:
           An alternative exploratory approach
    • Authors: Ron Johnston; Kelvyn Jones David Manley
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 29 November 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones, David Manley
      There has been a substantial switch in approaches to the study of British voting behaviour in recent decades, with much less attention being paid to individual voters' social positions. This paper argues that such approaches can mis-represent the contexts within which voters are socialised and mobilised and are also technically problematic because social positions and attitudes may well be collinear – in which case ‘true’ relationships are difficult to uncover. Further, regression models that include variables representing social positions almost invariably look at the main effects only and pay no attention to the interactions among those variables. Using a newly-developed multilevel modelling approach to the analysis of multi-way contingency tables, this paper explores the relationships between respondents' age, sex and qualifications and their voting at the last three general elections in England, using a large data set. It indicates that, contrary to recent work, respondents' social positions are linked – through their attitudes – to their partisan choices, and that exploration of the interactions among those variables identifies important differences in how they voted.

      PubDate: 2017-12-12T15:05:56Z
  • Explaining citizen perceptions of party ideological positions: The
           mediating role of political contexts
    • Authors: Royce Carroll; Hiroki Kubo
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 10 November 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Royce Carroll, Hiroki Kubo
      In this paper we examine how political contexts mediate citizens' ability to understand political parties' ideological positions, focusing on education level. Using cross-national data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we explore how the effect of individual education level in influencing the supply and clarity of ‘left-right’ information in a party system is mediated by contextual factors. The results show that the effect of education levels in improving citizens' ability to perceive party ideological locations is conditional on political context. First, in cases where the supply of such information is limited due to less democratic experience and less programmatic party politics, the effect of education is weakened. However, the effect of education increases in contexts where we would expect less clarity of party position information—where parties are least polarized and where institutional factors add complexity to party competition.

      PubDate: 2017-11-17T12:16:28Z
  • Moderate, extreme, or both' How voters respond to ideologically
           unpredictable candidates
    • Authors: Jon Rogowski; Patrick Tucker
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 3 November 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jon C. Rogowski, Patrick D. Tucker
      Candidates and parties often face a choice between endorsing policies that appeal to their core constituencies or generate support from more diverse groups of voters. While the latter strategy may make overtures to a wider set of citizens, existing literature says little about how the overall mix of issue positions affects electoral support. We argue that candidates who endorse diverse sets of policy positions appear unpredictable to voters and incur subsequent electoral penalties. Using data from the 2006 congressional elections, we find that ideological predictability substantially increases electoral support at both the individual and aggregate levels and that voters perceive greater ideological congruence from more predictable candidates. Our results have important implications for candidate and party strategies and suggest that voters are responsive to the mean and the variance of candidates’ policy stances.

      PubDate: 2017-11-09T11:30:35Z
  • Timing the habit: Voter registration and turnout
    • Authors: Enrijeta Shino; Daniel Smith
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 2 November 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Enrijeta Shino, Daniel A. Smith
      Does registration timing impact whether an individual becomes a habitual voter' We argue that those registering in near proximity to a presidential election are more likely to vote in the upcoming election compared to those who register at other times during an election cycle because they seek an immediate return on their investment, but they are less likely to become habituated to vote in subsequent mid-term and primary elections. We suggest that this is because last-minute registrants, many of whom were registered through voter registration drives, were not focused on long-term electoral payoffs. Leveraging Florida's statewide voter files, we use logistic regression and propensity score weighting with county fixed-effects to evaluate if the timing of voter registration has significant short- and long-term turnout effects in high- and low-salience elections, controlling for party registration and an array of demographic factors. We find that the timing of registration does affect turnout, as last-minute registrants are not equally likely to vote in ensuing elections.

      PubDate: 2017-11-09T11:30:35Z
  • The effects of rating scale format on the measurement of policy attitudes
           in web surveys
    • Authors: Alexander Jedinger
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 31 October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Alexander Jedinger
      Recent research suggests that policy attitudes should be assessed with surveys that use branched rating scales that separately measure the direction and intensity of issue preferences. However, past studies have not tested whether branched rating scales improve the quality of survey data in the context of self-administered web surveys. In the current study, I compare the effects of different issue scale formats on response distributions, survey satisficing and issue-based voting in multiparty elections. Using data from a randomized web experiment, I find that partially labeled seven- and eleven-point issue scales and fully verbalized branched scales produce very similar response distributions and comparable effects of policy attitudes on party choice. However, the findings regarding the extent of satisficing behavior are mixed. Based on the efficiency of different scale formats, scholars are encouraged to use seven- or eleven-point rating scales to measure policy attitudes in web surveys.

      PubDate: 2017-11-02T14:43:15Z
  • Measuring issue-salience in voters' preferences
    • Authors: Stephen Ansolabehere; Socorro Puy
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 28 October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Stephen Ansolabehere, M. Socorro Puy
      We provide a new approach to the measurement of issue salience that explains how the salience of an issue among voters and the position of the parties on a given issue interact to each other and determine vote choices and aggregate election results. Analyzing the spatial model of voting, we show how voting probabilities can be estimated by a multinomial logit regression where the ideal policy locations of voters on each issue dimensions are independent variables, and where no individual specific perception about the location of the political parties is used in the regression. The pieces of survey information that are used to calculate issue-salience are: i) specific position of respondents on each issue dimension, ii) vote choice, and iii) the policy position of parties on each issue dimension, which is measure by the mean perceived position. Rather, only an aggregate estimate of party positions on issues is needed. To demonstrate the mechanics and value of the approach, we analyze regional elections in the Basque province of Spain. In that region, we find that the left-right dimension is about two times more salient than nationalism. The nationalism issue is, however, more divisive than the left-right issue. This shows that the issue that voters care more about, may not coincide with the issue on which the parties offer more distinctive policies.

      PubDate: 2017-11-02T14:43:15Z
  • Facing up to the facts: What causes economic perceptions'
    • Authors: Catherine Vries; Sara Hobolt James Tilley
      Abstract: Publication date: Available online 6 October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Catherine E. De Vries, Sara B. Hobolt, James Tilley
      The link between individual perceptions of the economy and vote choice is fundamental to electoral accountability. Yet, while it is well-established that economic perceptions are correlated with voting behaviour, it is unclear whether these perceptions are rooted in the real economy or whether they simply reflect voters’ partisan biases. This article uses time-series data, survey data and unique experimental evidence to shed new light on how British voters update their economic perceptions in response to economic change. Our findings demonstrate that while partisanship influences levels of economic optimism, people respond to information about real economic changes by adjusting their economic perceptions.

      PubDate: 2017-10-11T22:00:02Z
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