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POLITICAL SCIENCE (741 journals)                  1 2 3 4 | Last

Showing 1 - 200 of 281 Journals sorted alphabetically
A Contracorriente     Open Access  
Ab Imperio     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Acta Borealia: A Nordic Journal of Circumpolar Societies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Acta Politica Estica     Open Access  
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Administrative Science Quarterly     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 136)
Affirmations : of the modern     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
AFFRIKA Journal of Politics, Economics and Society     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
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African Renaissance     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
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Agrarian South : Journal of Political Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
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Alternatives : Global, Local, Political     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Altre Modernità     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
América Latina Hoy     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
American Communist History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
American Foreign Policy Interests: The Journal of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
American Journal of Political Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 236)
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American Political Thought     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 9)
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Asian Journal of Political Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
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Astropolitics: The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
AUDEM : The International Journal of Higher Education and Democracy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 9)
Aurora. Revista de Arte, Mídia e Política     Open Access  
Australasian Review of African Studies, The     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
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Balcanica Posnaniensia Acta et studia     Open Access  
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Bandung : Journal of the Global South     Open Access  
Basic Income Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity     Open Access   (Followers: 47)
Bulletin d'histoire politique     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
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CADUS - Revista de Estudos de Política, História e Cultura     Open Access  
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Cahiers de Sciences politiques de l'ULg     Open Access  
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China-EU Law Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Chinese Journal of Global Governance     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
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Chinese Studies     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Cittadinanza Europea (LA)     Full-text available via subscription  
Civil Wars     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union     Open Access  
Class, Race and Corporate Power     Open Access  
Cold War History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
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Conflict Trends     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Conflict, Security & Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 360)
Congress & the Presidency: A Journal of Capital Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Conjunctions. Transdisciplinary Journal of Cultural Participation     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Constellations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Contemporary Japan     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Contemporary Journal of African Studies     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Contemporary Political Theory     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Contemporary Review of the Middle East     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Contemporary Security Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
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Contemporary Wales     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Contenciosa     Open Access  
Contexto Internacional     Open Access  
Cooperation and Conflict     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
CQ Researcher     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Criterio Jurídico     Open Access  
Critical Asian Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Critical Review : A Journal of Politics and Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Critical Reviews on Latin American Research     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Critical Social Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Critical Studies on Terrorism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Cuadernos de historia de España     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
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Cultural Critique     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Culture Mandala : The Bulletin of the Centre for East-West Cultural and Economic Studies     Open Access  
Décalages : An Althusser Studies Journal     Open Access  
Decolonization : Indigeneity, Education & Society     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Defence Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Defense & Security Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
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Democratic Communiqué     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Democratic Theory     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Democratization     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
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Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
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Der Staat     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 13)
Desafíos     Open Access  
Development and Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 46)
Digest of Middle East Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
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Dissent     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Diversité urbaine     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward terrorism and genocide     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
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Ecopolítica     Open Access  
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El Cotidiano     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Electoral Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Em Pauta : Teoria Social e Realidade Contemporânea     Open Access  
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European Journal of American Culture     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
European Journal of Government and Economics     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
European Journal of International Relations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 48)
European Journal of Political Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
European Journal of Political Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 65)
European Political Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)

        1 2 3 4 | Last

Journal Cover Electoral Studies
  [SJR: 1.371]   [H-I: 44]   [28 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 0261-3794
   Published by Elsevier Homepage  [3031 journals]
  • The local roots of the participation gap: Inequality and voter turnout
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 19 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): John Bartle, Sarah Birch, Mariana Skirmuntt
      It is generally accepted that the rich are more likely to participate in politics than the poor. It is also generally accepted that the probability than an individual will participate in elections is influenced by the gap between the rich and the poor. There is little agreement, however, about whether inequality across time and space increases or decreases participation. In this paper we examine the impact of inequality across space. We suggest that the impact of inequality depends crucially on whether it is defined in terms of variations between geographical units (‘segregation’) or within geographical units (‘heterogeneity’). Evidence to support this argument is drawn from multi-level British data. Heterogeneity has a mildly positive effect on participation but this effect seems to be outweighed by the negative impact of segregation. The effect of segregation, moreover, is most pronounced among the poorer sections of the population, indicating that geographical isolation among the poor ('ghettoization') leads to lower turnout among these groups.

      PubDate: 2017-05-22T14:00:14Z
  • Levels or changes?: Ethnic context, immigration and the UK
           Independence party vote
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 19 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Eric Kaufmann
      Will the rising share of ethnic minorities in western societies spark a backlash or lead to greater acceptance of diversity? This paper examines this question through the prism of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the most successful populist right party in British history. The paper contributes to work on contextual effects by arguing that ethnic levels and changes cross-pressure white opinion and voting. It argues that high levels of established ethnic minorities reduce opposition to immigration and support for UKIP among White Britons. Conversely, more rapid ethnic changes increase opposition to immigration and support for UKIP. Longitudinal data demonstrates that these effects are not produced by self-selection. The data further illustrate that with time, diversity levels increase their threat-reducing power while the threatening effects of ethnic change fade. Results suggest that the contextual effects literature needs to routinely unpack levels from changes. This also suggests that if the pace of immigration slows, immigration attitudes should soften and populist right voting decline.

      PubDate: 2017-05-22T14:00:14Z
  • On the mismeasurement of sincere and strategic voting in mixed-member
           electoral systems
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Carolina Plescia
      Under mixed systems, voters cast two votes to elect the same legislative body: one vote for parties using proportional rules and one for candidates using majoritarian rules. Voters are said to cast straight-tickets if the candidate they vote for is of the same party as their proportional vote; otherwise, they are said to cast split-tickets. Split-ticket voting is commonly used as a measure of strategic voting as splitters are usually assumed to express their true preference in one vote but vote strategically in the other. This study challenges this practice showing that split-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate strategic voting, just as straight-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate a sincere vote. This result has wider consequences as it indicates that measuring strategic voting from observed behaviour can result in incorrect conclusions about vote choice.

      PubDate: 2017-05-18T12:12:26Z
  • Masters of their fate? Explaining MPs’ re-candidacy in the long run: The
           case of Italy (1987–2013)
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 13 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Bruno Marino, Nicola Martocchia Diodati
      Why are certain Members of Parliament (MPs) more likely to get re-candidacy for national legislative elections, therefore having the possibility to continue their career? This article answers this question by comparing political elites' long-debated explanations with more legislative behaviour-related factors. By focusing on more than 25 years of the Italian Lower House's history, we have built a novel dataset on the legislative behaviour and career patterns of more than 3500 Italian MPs. A multilevel logistic regression analysis shows that, with the exception of party switching, legislative behaviour does not seem to exert a significant impact on MPs' re-candidacy. On the contrary, the career status of parliamentarians, i.e., their parliamentary position or their ministerial historical record, strongly influences their chances of obtaining re-candidacy.

      PubDate: 2017-05-18T12:12:26Z
  • Demonisation and electoral support for populist radical right parties: A
           temporary effect
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Sjoerdje Charlotte van Heerden, Wouter van der Brug
      Since the 1980s, Western Europe has experienced the surge of populist radical right parties. In an attempt to ward off these electoral newcomers, established parties have pursued strategies of disengagement, such as exclusion and de-legitimisation. This study examines the electoral effects of an excessive form of de-legitimisation, which we label ‘demonisation’. We estimate the effects of demonisation on electoral support for the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV) and its predecessor Groep Wilders. Time series analyses show that demonisation has a negative effect on electoral support, but only for Groep Wilders. Once the populist radical right party has made a successful entry into the party system, demonisation does not have its intended consequences.

      PubDate: 2017-04-26T16:57:30Z
  • The parliamentary election in Lithuania, October 2016
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Mindaugas Jurkynas
      The aim of the article is to discuss the context and results of the parliamentary election in Lithuania that took place in October 2016. This paper will present a brief review of the general results of all elections to the parliament (Seimas) since 1990 and introduce the development of the electoral system employed for the last parliamentary election. Then the article will overview the profiles of parties and coalitions that participated in the election in 2016 and evaluate the electoral campaign. Finally, I will shed light on the outcome, electoral indices and the aftermath of the 2016 parliamentary election.

      PubDate: 2017-04-19T08:57:16Z
  • The “timeline” method of studying electoral dynamics
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 11 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Christopher Wlezien, Will Jennings, Robert Erikson
      To study the evolution of electoral preferences, Erikson and Wlezien (2012) propose assessing the correspondence between pre-election polls and the vote in a set of elections. That is, they treat poll data not as a set of time series but as a series of cross-sections—across elections—for each day of the election cycle. This “timeline” method does not provide complete information, but does reveal general patterns of electoral dynamics, and has been applied to elections in numerous countries. The application of the method involves a number of decisions that have not been explicitly addressed in previous research, however. There are three primary issues: (1) how best to assess the evolution of preferences; (2) how to deal with missing data; and (3) the consequences of sampling error. This paper considers each of these issues and provides answers. In the end, the analyses suggest that simpler approaches are better. It also may be that a more general strategy is possible, in which scholars could explicitly model the variation in poll-vote error across countries, elections, parties and time. We consider that direction for future research in the concluding section.

      PubDate: 2017-04-12T08:50:04Z
  • Assessing the validity of the Manifesto Common Space Scores
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 6 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jan-Erik Flentje, Thomas König, Moritz Marbach
      RILE estimates based on party manifesto data suggest that political parties leapfrog on the left-right scale over time. This implausible finding has raised questions about the efficacy not only of RILE for estimating left-right positions but of coded party manifestos for political science research in general. The recently developed Manifesto Common Space Scores (MCSS), which reduce leapfrogging by accounting for the election-specific character of party manifestos, provide alternative estimates for parties left/right-positions, but little is known about their validity. This study shows that MCSS estimates exhibit greater convergent validity relative to RILE estimates when compared to other measures of parties left/right-positions. It also finds that MCSS has greater construct validity relative to RILE estimates in two prominent cases (Greece and Italy). Overall, the findings underscore the election-specific character of party manifestos and demonstrate that MCSS is a useful alternative measure of parties’ left-right positions.

      PubDate: 2017-04-12T08:50:04Z
  • Defeat of the People's Army? The 2015 British general election and the UK
           Independence Party (UKIP)
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 18 March 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): David Cutts, Matthew Goodwin, Caitlin Milazzo
      The 2015 general election in Britain saw a major attempt by a relatively new party - the UK Independence Party (UKIP)- to secure elected representation. While UKIP received nearly four million votes, the party left the 2015 general election with just one Member of Parliament. Our evidence, drawn from analysis of British Election survey data and in-depth qualitative interviews with activists, suggests that UKIP's campaign was a major factor in its inability to translate widespread support into elected representation. While the party pursued a targeted campaign, this had only a modest impact on its own vote. UKIP's lack of resources, inexperience and inability to operationalize highly effective, targeted local campaigns severely hamstrung the party and prevented it from converting support into MPs at Westminster.

      PubDate: 2017-03-21T20:07:45Z
  • Internet voting and turnout: Evidence from Switzerland
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 March 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Micha Germann, Uwe Serdült
      Internet voting (i-voting) is often discussed as a potential remedy against declining turnout rates. This paper presents new evidence on the causal effect of i-voting on turnout, drawing on trials conducted in two Swiss cantons: Geneva and Zurich. Both Geneva and Zurich constitute hard cases for i-voting, given that i-voting was introduced in the presence of postal voting. However, this setting allows us to test some of the more optimistic claims regarding i-voting's ability to increase turnout. Empirically, we exploit the advantageous circumstance that federal legislation created a situation coming close to a natural experiment, with some of Geneva's and Zurich's municipalities participating in i-voting trials and others not. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find that i-voting did not increase turnout in the cantons of Geneva and Zurich.

      PubDate: 2017-03-12T16:58:02Z
  • Does online voting change the outcome? Evidence from a multi-mode
           public policy referendum
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto, Fredrik Sjoberg
      Do online and offline voters differ in terms of policy preferences? The growth of Internet voting in recent years has opened up new channels of participation. Whether or not political outcomes change as a consequence of new modes of voting is an open question. Here we analyze all the votes cast both offline (n = 5.7 million) and online (n = 1.3 million) and compare the actual vote choices in a public policy referendum, the world's largest participatory budgeting process, in Rio Grande do Sul in June 2014. In addition to examining aggregate outcomes, we also conducted two surveys to better understand the demographic profiles of who chooses to vote online and offline. We find that policy preferences of online and offline voters are no different, even though our data suggest important demographic differences between offline and online voters.

      PubDate: 2017-02-24T21:22:15Z
  • The dynamics of political identity and issue attitudes in adolescence and
           early adulthood
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Roderik Rekker, Loes Keijsers, Susan Branje, Wim Meeus
      This cohort-sequential longitudinal study among 1302 Dutch youths examined the dynamics of political identity (e.g., Democrat or Rightist) and issue attitudes between age 12 and 30. Some theories propose that voters form an identity early in life that subsequently determines attitudes. Other theories contrarily argue that attitudes are a cause of identity. However, research on this controversy has never focused on the crucial phase of adolescence. Results revealed that youths formed an identity consistent with prior attitudes more than vice versa. Highly educated youths most often adjusted their attitudes to their identity, which explained an emerging education gap in identity-attitude consistency. Finally, findings suggested that early cultural attitudes establish an identity that may subsequently determine economic attitudes.

      PubDate: 2017-02-24T21:22:15Z
  • Social pressure and voting: A field experiment conducted in a
           high-salience election
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Todd Rogers, Donald Green, John Ternovski, Carolina Ferrerosa-Young
      A large-scale experiment assessed the turnout effects of the “Neighbors” mailer, which exerts social pressure to vote by disclosing the past turnout records of recipients and their neighbors. A prior large-scale experiment conducted in a low salience election found that this mailer increased turnout substantially. The experiment reported here gauges the effects of this mailer in the context of a hotly contested recall election. We find smaller but still sizable effects, especially for low-propensity voters. Turnout increases significantly in the presidential election several months later, and the immediate and downstream effects are similar regardless of whether the mailer is worded in partisan or nonpartisan terms. Using data furnished by the Obama campaign and several nonpartisan organizations, we find little evidence that receiving the Neighbors mailer caused people to become the targets of subsequent mobilizing activity, suggesting that the downstream effects of social pressure cannot be attributed to subsequent campaign contacts.

      PubDate: 2017-02-24T21:22:15Z
  • So who really does the donkey work in ‘multi-speed membership
           parties’? Comparing the election campaign activity of party members and
           party supporters
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 20 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Paul Webb, Monica Poletti, Tim Bale
      One of the traditional functions of party members is to campaign on behalf of their party at general elections. However, they are not the only people who volunteer for the job. In the context of the growing literature on ‘multi-speed membership’ parties, it is important to ask what non-members do for parties they support. This paper examines how different actors contributed to the electoral campaigns of six parties at the 2015 UK General Election, using survey data covering not only members of the Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, United Kingdom Independence, Scottish Nationalist, and Green parties, but also voters who identified themselves as being close to one of those parties but did not formally belong to them. As well as exploring how much work they do during campaigns, we ask whether the two groups choose different activities and are differently motivated. We find that, at the individual level, party members do more than non-member supporters, and that this is especially true of more intensive forms of activity. We also find that constituency context and political attitudes influence levels of activity in similar ways for members and supporters. However, we find no consistent impact from demographic factors or ideological incongruence. At the aggregate level, we estimate that the campaign work done by supporters may match or even exceed that done by party members.

      PubDate: 2017-02-24T21:22:15Z
  • The incumbency disadvantage in South Korean National Assembly elections:
           Evidence from a regression discontinuity approach
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 20 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jungho Roh
      In marked contrast to the findings from advanced democracies that incumbent office holders enjoy electoral advantages, this study finds that a substantial incumbency disadvantage exists in South Korean National Assembly (KNA) elections. I employ a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design to distinguish the true effects of incumbency from the selection effects associated with candidate qualities, such as charisma and ability levels. My results show that serving a term in office reduces the probability of winning by around 20–30 percentage points and reduces the vote share by about 3–7 percentage points. Possible reasons for the incumbency disadvantage are briefly discussed, with an emphasis on the particularly high level of public discontent with governing elites in the KNA due to what voters perceive to be their widespread corruption.

      PubDate: 2017-02-24T21:22:15Z
  • …And keep your enemies closer: Building reputations for facing
           electoral challenges
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 16 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Brian F. Crisp, Kristin Kanthak, Santiago Olivella
      Rather than occupants of a position in an ideological policy space, we conceive of legislators as reputation builders – the reputation they think will best serve them in the next election. Our theory suggests that legislators will seek to undercut the efforts of the challenger they fear most – the one in the primary or the one in the general election. We test our reasoning by examining legislative cosponsorship patterns in the U.S. House of Representatives. We find evidence that legislators respond to information about their potential future electoral challenges by building reputations as loners, partisans, or dissidents. We also show that these choices have implications for an incumbent's prospects in the next election. Building the wrong reputation increases the strength of future challenges.

      PubDate: 2017-02-17T21:07:48Z
  • Symposium on “The Nationalization of Electoral Politics: Frontiers of
           Research”, forthcoming in Electoral Studies
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 7 February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Daniele Caramani, Ken Kollman

      PubDate: 2017-02-12T03:15:20Z
  • The March 2016 parliamentary elections in Slovakia: A political earthquake
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Marek Rybář, Peter Spáč
      The 2016 parliamentary elections in Slovakia brought important changes to the composition of parliament and resulted in an innovative four-party government. The leftist Smer-SD came on top but suffered substantial losses compared to 2012. It managed to form a government with three other parties, one of them representing the traditional Slovak nationalists while another being the leading representative of Slovakia's largest ethnic minority. The new coalition government downplays its internal divisions and claims it can provide stability in difficult international political situations, innovative policies in fighting corruption, and rejection of political extremism and radicalism. The opposition is fragmented and divided: it is composed of the two new radical right parties and two more moderate conservative-liberal groupings.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • Fat politics, lean politics: Parties and elections in good and bad times
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Timothy Hellwig, Ernesto Calvo

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • The valence gap: Economic cycles, perceptions of competence,
           and the party system
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Ernesto Calvo, Kiyoung Chang, Timothy Hellwig
      How does the economic cycle matter for political parties and party systems? This article presents a unified theory connecting economic cycles to party behavior and to party system fragmentation. We argue that a key but poorly studied determinant of party system performance is the difference in perceived competence among parties. The narrowing of differences in parties' valence stock, or the ‘valence gap’, has the effect of increasing the weight voters assign to parties' ideological positions and, in turn, increases the number of parties in the system. Analyses of German public opinion from 1990 to 2007 and of cross-sectional analysis of party valence characteristics from nine countries provides evidence in support of our claims. Overall, study findings show how economic growth and decline work through differences in parties' valence to shape the behavior of party systems.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • Is the party system affected by booms and busts? Not very much
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Matthew M. Singer
      The literature on party system fragmentation emphasizes how political institutions and social cleavages shape the long-term development of the party system, but short-term swings in economic performance could change the level of electoral fragmentation by affecting the concentration of the vote in the executive. Time series data from presidential elections in 59 countries and from district-level legislative election contests in 22 countries show that a growing economy is negatively associated with the effective number of parties winning votes: a strong economy leads to a slight reduction in fragmentation as the ruling party consolidates its rule while a weak economy tends to disperse votes among alternatives to it. But the effect of economic performance relative to political institutions and the incumbency advantage is at the margins. The modest size of this effect should remind scholars of the limits of the economy as an overall driver of voter choice. Keywords: Economic Voting, Party System Fragmentation, Duverger’s Hypothesis.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • Economic performance and incumbents' support in Latin America
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): M. Victoria Murillo, Giancarlo Visconti
      We analyze the impact of economic conditions and income shocks on the stability of incumbents' support in Latin America. A reduction in the incumbent's vote share from one election to another is a behavioral indicator of voter discontent with her performance, a crucial element of democratic accountability. In explaining the percentage change in incumbent vote, we emphasize the importance of income effects. In particular, we argue that negative economic conditions have deleterious consequences on the capacity of incumbents to sustain their electoral support. We test this hypothesis both at the aggregate and individual level using electoral and survey data. We find evidence that negative economic shocks erode support for incumbents at both levels of analysis, thus increasing our confidence on results showing the impact of pocketbook economic vote in the region.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • Good times, bad times: Taxation and electoral accountability
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Martial Foucault, Katsunori Seki, Guy D. Whitten
      In this article we address two important and related questions. First, do economic hard times make defeat inevitable for any incumbent? And, second, do voters sanction incumbents for a poor economy whatever the economic policy pursued? To answer these questions, we propose a new theory about the ways in which taxation policies, clarity of responsibility, government ideology, and economic conditions come together to shape election outcomes. We address these questions with a new set of data collected on elections, government policies, and economic measures before and during the current economic crisis. Our findings indicate that taxation policies have effects on incumbent electoral patterns net of economic performance measures, but that these effects differ in theoretically-expected fashions depending on clarity of responsibility, government ideology, and whether or not there has been a recession in the year before an election is held.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • It's not easy being green: Why voters punish parties for environmental
           policies during economic downturns
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Tarik Abou-Chadi, Mark A. Kayser
      Recent scholarship asserts the existence of “luxury goods voting” arguing that voters penalize parties associated with post-material issues or those with long-run payoffs during economic downturns. We test this arguments here using data from four election studies in Denmark and Germany that explicitly ask respondents to rate parties on one particular luxury goods issue: protection of the environment. Voters who perceive the economy as weak indeed punish governing parties more severely when they associate them with environmental policies; conversely, a green reputation when the economy is expanding garners left-wing parties higher vote probabilities. Right-wing governing parties fare similarly, benefitting from those who perceive them as green when the economy is hale, albeit only converging to the vote probabilities awarded from voters who see them as less green when the economy sours.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • Representing the national economic agenda in Latin America: Variation by
           fat and lean times and party brands
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Oscar Castorena, Elizabeth J. Zechmeister
      Representation is greater when legislators and voters agree on the national agenda. Under what conditions are higher degrees of “issue priority representation” more likely? Our answer focuses on economic conditions and party branding dynamics, and the case of Latin America. With mass and elite survey data we show that economic hard times and left-leaning preferences increase the prioritization of economic issues. We likewise document fairly high levels of economic issue priority representation in most of Latin America. From the perspective of democratic quality, evidence of representation in this domain is good news; yet, variation does exist. Consistent with our argument that party branding dynamics matter, we find that leftist and centrist parties tend to over-prioritize economic issues relative to their supporters, and the reverse for rightist parties. Further, we find a significant interaction between economic conditions and the ideological brand of parties: in economic downturns the left and the center are more likely to express a strong commitment to economic performance, whereas the right is less responsive to lean times.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • Partisan technocratic cycles in Latin America
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Stephen B. Kaplan
      Given their powerful positions in presidential cabinets, technocrats are an important transmission mechanism for explaining economic policy choices, but have received less attention compared to other well-established channels such as elections or democratic tenure. I incorporate the role of technocratic advisors into a domestic policymaking framework. Specifically, I contend that left governments tend to appoint technocrats, or ministers with mainstream economics training, to signal their commitment to sound governance to the electorate. This partisan technocratic pattern, however, is conditioned by a country's place in its business cycle. During periods of high growth, left governments are more likely to align with their partisan preferences and appoint heterodox advisors that drift from fiscal discipline. Employing an originally constructed data index, the Index of Economic Advisors, I conduct a statistical test of 16 Latin American countries from 1960 to 2011, finding partisan shifts in technocratic appointments and fiscal governance that are conditioned by national business cycles.

      PubDate: 2017-02-05T19:20:50Z
  • The effects of ambiguous rhetoric in congressional elections
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 20 January 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Kerri Milita, Elizabeth N. Simas, John Barry Ryan, Yanna Krupnikov
      Ambiguity -- whereby candidates make deliberately unclear position statements on key issues -- has long been touted by pundits and political scientists as a smart campaign strategy. In this manuscript, two experiments suggest the usefulness of ambiguous rhetoric on salient issues is overstated. Voters rely on well-publicized partisan positions on political issues as heuristics, a factor that has often been overlooked by the existing literature. This means that an issue will inform a voter's decision even if the candidate speaks ambiguously on it. Further, while ambiguity does not change the voters' perceptions of the candidate's position relative to silence, it does raise the salience of the issue that candidate is attempting to minimize. Hence, for candidates who wish to hide unfavorable positions, silence is a better rhetorical strategy than ambiguity.

      PubDate: 2017-01-22T03:46:22Z
  • The miracle of the markets: Identifying key campaign events in the
           Scottish independence referendum using betting odds.
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 20 January 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Matthew Wall, Rory Costello, Stephen Lindsay
      This paper analyses campaign dynamics in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum by integrating time-stamped polling releases with highly granular evolving price data created by online political gambling markets. Our analysis models the relationship between poll releases and prices available on a Yes result, allowing us to measure the extent to which the release of each new poll represented an informational ‘shock’. We then seek to control for polling shocks in order to isolate and analyse the effects of key campaign events; combining a multivariate time series analysis with confirmatory testing based on a micro-analysis of the movement in gambling prices in the minutes and hours following these events. We conclude that the second leaders' debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling was the most influential event of the campaign, initiating a surge in the Yes side's estimated probability of victory.

      PubDate: 2017-01-22T03:46:22Z
  • Political opportunity structures and the representation of women and
           visible minorities in municipal elections
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 January 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Zac Spicer, Michael McGregor, Christopher Alcantara
      Are women and visible minorities more likely to contest and win municipal elections under different institutional and contextual circumstances? We examine this question using data collected on 934 individual candidates who sought election in twenty-two large and mid-sized cities during the 2014 municipal election cycle in Ontario, Canada. The influence of three types of political opportunity structure on the ‘decision to run’ for female and minority candidates are examined, as well as the ability of these candidates to win when they do stand for election. While we uncover no evidence such structures affect candidacy, our results do indicate district magnitude is negatively correlated with the likelihood of female and minority victory. This finding conflicts with the existing literature on the topic and has implications for debates on electoral reform and the representation of women and minorities.

      PubDate: 2017-01-22T03:46:22Z
  • The importance of issue-ownership and salience for voters' knowledge of
           parties' issue positions
    • Abstract: Publication date: April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 46
      Author(s): Yves Dejaeghere, Patrick van Erkel
      Congruence between voters and representatives has long been seen as a clear marker of the quality of representation. In this paper we contend that to make this linkage we need to investigate the ability of voters to position parties in issue-space. We investigate how well voters in Belgium can do this by comparing their estimates of parties positions on twelve different issue-statements with the placement of the parties on these statements. We find that most voters have a hard time doing this and that the error is rather large. Investigating this further we find that issue ownership does more benefit for those with more factual knowledge than those without. In the same line, consumers of news-media benefit more from the ownership heuristic than those who use little news media. Finally we also find that the traditional gender gap in political knowledge literature does not seem to hold for knowing issue-positions.

      PubDate: 2017-01-15T04:00:47Z
  • Turnout and weather disruptions: Survey evidence from the 2012
           presidential elections in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Narayani Lasala-Blanco, Robert Y. Shapiro, Viviana Rivera-Burgos
      This paper examines the rational choice reasoning that is used to explain the correlation between low voter turnout and the disruptions caused by weather related phenomena in the United States. Using in-person as well as phone survey data collected in New York City where the damage and disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy varied by district and even by city blocks, we explore, more directly than one can with aggregate data, whether individuals who were more affected by the disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy were more or less likely to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election that took place while voters still struggled with the devastation of the hurricane and unusually low temperatures. Contrary to the findings of other scholars who use aggregate data to examine similar questions, we find that there is no difference in the likelihood to vote between citizens who experienced greater discomfort and those who experienced no discomfort even in non-competitive districts. We theorize that this is in part due to the resilience to costs and higher levels of political engagement that vulnerable groups develop under certain institutional conditions.

      PubDate: 2017-01-07T03:53:18Z
  • Why don't people vote in U.S. primary elections? Assessing theoretical
           explanations for reduced participation
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Daniel R. Biggers, David J. Hendry
      Primary election participation in the United States is consistently lower than general election turnout. Despite this well-documented voting gap, our knowledge is limited as to the individual-level factors that explain why some general election voters do not show up for primary contests. We provide important insights into this question, using a novel new survey to examine three theoretical perspectives on participation never before empirically applied to primary races. Compared to general elections, we find that for U.S. House primary elections sizable segments of the electorate consider the stakes lower and the costs of voting greater, feel less social pressure to turn out and hold exclusionary beliefs about who should participate, and are more willing to defer to those who know and care more about the contests. Multivariate analysis reveals that these attitudes explain validated primary election participation. These findings point to new directions for future research.

      PubDate: 2016-12-27T03:24:54Z
  • Which measure of political difference between parties works better? A
           comparison in predicting coalition formation
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 26 December 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Martin Mölder
      The majority of measures of party politics have used the manifesto dataset as their source. Most of them have been proposed as alternatives to the RILE index, but the latter still continues to be the most often used and criticised index. All of such measures have been justified on theoretical and methodological grounds, as well as through appeals to face and convergent validity. However, we do not have information on how they actually compare in modelling reality. This paper provides such a comparison in a context where there is extensive evidence that political differences between parties matter for party interaction – coalition formation. The comparison focuses on contrasting a direct measure of political difference, the index of similarity, to measures based on ideological positions, all of which are derived from the manifesto data set. The results show that the much simpler index of similarity performs just as well or better.

      PubDate: 2016-12-27T03:24:54Z
  • What creates heterogeneity in ballot order effects? Evidence from Korea's
           local elections of education superintendent
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 December 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Byung-hill Jun, Heechul Min
      This paper explores the gains in vote shares accrued to an election candidate listed first on a ballot and examines how the gains vary with characteristics of elections and voters. Korea's election of education superintendent and its rule determining the name order of candidates provide a rare natural experiment to study ballot order effects. This paper proposes an empirical framework that addresses the aggregation problem that is prevalent in the related literature. According to the results, being listed first gives a positive premium for a majority of candidates and the gains are notable for less educated voters and in elections without an incumbent or strong candidate. This paper has also showed that different ballot order would have changed winners in some elections.

      PubDate: 2016-12-27T03:24:54Z
  • Door-to-door canvassing in the European elections: Evidence from a Swedish
           field experiment
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Pär Nyman
      In this paper I report the results from a door-to-door canvassing experiment conducted in Sweden during the 2014 European elections. The canvassing was performed by members of the Social Democratic Party and the experiment closely resembles the partisan nature of most mobilizing campaigns in Europe. The paper is one of the first to provide causal evidence for the mobilizing effectiveness of canvassing outside the United States. Living in a household that was visited by canvassers increases the probability of voting by 3.6 percentage points. This effect is entirely driven by estimates twice as large for occasional and first-time voters. Compared to previous research, the high compliance rate gives precisely estimated effects that are closer to average treatment effects.

      PubDate: 2016-12-20T03:00:20Z
  • Political budget cycles and media freedom
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Francisco José Veiga, Linda Gonçalves Veiga, Atsuyoshi Morozumi
      This paper examines the effects of elections on the conduct of central governments' fiscal policies. To do so, it uses a unique panel database that includes disaggregated spending and revenue series at the central government level for multiple countries over the 1975–2010 period. Examining political environments under which incumbent governments generate political budget cycles (PBCs), and comparing the relative importance of factors influencing cycles, we identify media freedom as the factor that plays the most critical role. This result provides a micro-foundation for rational opportunistic models for PBCs that rely on asymmetry of information about politicians' competence, and also offers a way to relate different conditioning factors of PBCs, including fiscal transparency and the maturity of democracies. Further, we show that the election-year rise in budget deficits under low media freedom is primarily driven by an increase in the current, not capital, component of public expenditure.

      PubDate: 2016-12-12T02:29:48Z
  • Political participation, personality, and the conditional effect of
           campaign mobilization
    • Abstract: Publication date: February 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 45
      Author(s): Ryan Dawkins
      Why are some people more responsive to campaign mobilization than others? I argue that the composition of a person's core personality makes some people more responsive to mobilization cues than others. However, the degree to which personality alters the effectiveness of mobilization also depends on the type of political participation for which people are being mobilized. I explore the determinants of political participation by looking at the interaction between the Big-5 traits of agreeableness, conscientiousness, and emotional stability and the intensity of campaign environments. This paper demonstrates that despite the possible ameliorative effect mobilization has on unequal patterns of political participation, an enduring source of participatory inequality may very well be rooted in a person's core psychological structure.

      PubDate: 2016-12-12T02:29:48Z
  • Six months and two parliamentary elections in Spain: December, 2015 and
           June, 2016. The end of the two-party system?
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 7 December 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): José I. Castillo-Manzano, Lourdes López-Valpuesta, Rafael Pozo-Barajas

      PubDate: 2016-12-12T02:29:48Z
  • Local candidates and voter mobilization: Evidence from historical
           two-round elections in Norway
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 5 December 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jon H. Fiva, Daniel M. Smith
      What effect do candidates with local ties have on voter turnout and party support? A considerable challenge within the existing literature on the personal vote, including that part which derives from local ties, is disentangling it from the party vote using observational data. We exploit the unique institutional context of Norway's historical two-round system, and data measured at the municipality level, to evaluate the mobilizational impact of voter attachment to parties versus (local) candidates. Under this system, entry into the second round was unrestricted, with the number and identity of candidates determined by elite coordination decisions. In municipalities where coordination at the district level between rounds resulted in the withdrawal of a candidate with local ties, we document a strong negative effect on both turnout and party support, which highlights the value of the personal vote for mobilization, and the potential trade-offs that confront parties and coalitions in nomination decisions.

      PubDate: 2016-12-12T02:29:48Z
  • How party nationalization conditions economic voting
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 2 December 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Scott Morgenstern, Noah Smith, Alejandro Trelles
      In this article we analyze the conditioning effect of party nationalization, and in particular dynamic nationalization, on economic voting. While previous single-country and cross-national studies suggest a weak correlation between economic conditions and voting patterns, we argue that this relationship is conditioned by the degree to which parties are dynamically nationalized. Using both case study and large-n analysis, we show first that retrospective voting can be more nationalized than prospective voting. We then argue that national economic conditions cannot and do not relate to voting patterns, at least when weak dynamic nationalization is weak. The findings also call into question the well-known thesis about the clarity of responsibility as a conditional factor in explaining retrospective (economic) voting. There is imperfect correspondence between “clarity of responsibility” and dynamic party nationalization, but retrospective voting presumes that voters across the country respond in kind. This explains why the only evidence we find of a correlation of national economic indicators and voting is when there is high dynamic nationalization.

      PubDate: 2016-12-05T03:34:55Z
  • Manifesto functions: How party candidates view and use their party's
           central policy document
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Nikolaus Eder, Marcelo Jenny, Wolfgang C. Müller
      Electoral manifestos play a crucial role in visions of party democracy and political science analyses of party competition. While research has focused on the contents of manifestos, we know much less about how parties produce manifestos and the roles they take in campaigns. This paper identifies three campaign-related functions of manifestos: they provide a compendium of valid party positions, streamline the campaign, and are used as campaign material. Based on the characteristics of the candidates, the parties and the campaign, the paper then derives expectations of how party candidates may differ in attributing importance to their party's manifesto. Based on a candidate survey after the 2013 Austrian general election, the paper shows that the key user-group of parliamentary candidates considers manifestos generally important and useful documents. Candidates' policy-centred campaigning and left–right distance from their own party are important in explaining individual differences. While the manifesto's service functions of providing a summary of valid party positions for the candidates and as a campaign means to be handed out to voters are widely appreciated, campaign streamlining is more divisive when it results in constraining candidates.

      PubDate: 2016-11-21T08:16:56Z
  • Do political budget cycles work? A micro-level investigation of
           pre-electoral budgeting and its electoral consequences
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 16 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Abel Bojar

      PubDate: 2016-11-21T08:16:56Z
  • The role of partisan cues in voter mobilization campaigns: Evidence from a
           randomized field experiment
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 16 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Florian Foos, Eline A. de Rooij
      The transmission of partisan appeals during election campaigns is widely believed to aid the formation of citizens’ candidate preferences, or to serve as rallying cries, thereby increasing turnout. While laboratory and survey experiments show that partisan cues help citizens decide between candidates, and partisan elections see higher turnout than non-partisan elections, it is unclear if party labels and partisan rhetoric cause voters to turn out in higher numbers in real-world elections. We exploit a low-information election in the UK to randomly assign whether campaign phone messages include strong partisan cues or promote the same candidate without such cues. Whereas we find no significant difference in the overall effectiveness of messages with and without partisan cues at increasing turnout, the effectiveness of the former is moderated by party preference: Consistent with the use of acceptance-rejection heuristics, campaign calls with partisan cues are more likely to mobilize party supporters than rival partisans.

      PubDate: 2016-11-21T08:16:56Z
  • Is there an intrinsic duty to vote? Comparative evidence from East and
           West Germans
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 15 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Aram Hur
      The duty to vote is a strong predictor of turnout, but little is known of its source, leaving much ambiguity around the nature of the motivation. This article shows that a powerful pathway lies in the ethical commitment many individuals feel to their nations. When the state is seen as an extension of one's national community, this national obligation is politicized toward state affairs, including the duty to vote. Conversely, when this linkage is weak or absent, an intrinsic duty to vote is weakened. By revising key assumptions in the traditional calculus of voting, I derive a statistical model to identify a nation-based, intrinsic duty to vote. The model is tested in Germany, where different experiences with unification in the East versus West yield contrasting predictions on an intrinsic duty to vote. The findings suggest new strategies for get-out-the-vote efforts to target the nationalistic source of the duty to vote.

      PubDate: 2016-11-21T08:16:56Z
  • To have or not to have: Effects of economic inequality on turnout in
           European democracies
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 15 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Carsten Jensen, Bjarke B. Jespersen
      The effect of economic inequality on turnout has received considerable interest recently. Some studies suggest that inequality depresses turnout, others that the relationship is either the other way around or simply non-existent. Employing a large dataset with some 80,000 respondents from 30 European democracies, we show that great care is required when exploring inequality and turnout. On average, there is indeed a negative/positive effect of being below/above the median income in a country – but it is conditioned by inequality (measured as the Gini coefficient) and national wealth (measured as GDP per capita). Moreover, the two country-level factors interact in surprising ways. Based on our results we warn against claims of mono-causal relationships between the economic situation of voters and turnout.

      PubDate: 2016-11-21T08:16:56Z
  • The accountability effect of endorsements: A survey experiment
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Ignazio De Ferrari
      Do endorsements from incumbent politicians to co-partisans lead to more electoral accountability for the performance of the government? I use a randomized experiment embedded in a national survey conducted before the 2012 Mexican general election to examine the effect of endorsements by the outgoing president Felipe Calderón to the Senate candidates of his Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). Results show that among PAN identifiers, the incumbent vote is more tightly linked to the performance of the president when voters are exposed to the endorsement. I improve on the current standing of the accountability literature by showing that the relationship between an outgoing politician and the candidates of her party matters for electoral sanctioning. My findings imply that politicians’ strategic decisions have an effect on how voters assign responsibility: By nominating candidates without close ties to the endorser in cases of weak government performance, parties can use nominations strategically to diffuse responsibility.

      PubDate: 2016-11-13T17:44:27Z
  • Explaining the effective number of parties: Beyond the standard model
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 10 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Marc van de Wardt
      This study casts new light on the conditions determining the effective number of parties in elections. The state-of-the-art mostly considers the interaction between the permissiveness of the electoral system and social heterogeneity, labelled the standard model. This study argues that we should move beyond the standard model and also consider voters’ short term ideological preferences as well as the diversity of issues on the party system agenda. Moreover, the effects of these variables are expected to be conditioned by electoral system permissiveness. The hypotheses are examined on the basis of a longitudinal dataset containing information on 696 elections that took place in 79 countries between 1945 and 2011. Importantly, the hypotheses could only be confirmed on institutionalized party systems.

      PubDate: 2016-11-13T17:44:27Z
  • Gradient constraint in voting: The effect of intra-generational social
           class and income mobility on turnout
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 4 November 2016
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Hannu Lahtinen, Hanna Wass, Heikki Hiilamo

      PubDate: 2016-11-06T22:10:14Z
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