Abstract: Abstract In the next future, climate change effects will represent a challenge for Europe and the Mediterranean area. These will have to cope with a rapid increase in climate variability. Although many economic sectors may be affected, agriculture is the most susceptible as climate heavily affects crop production trends, yield variability and the availability of areas suitable for cultivation. Using the stochastic frontier approach, the aim of this work is to analyse the impacts of climate variability on Italian regional technical efficiency in the agricultural sector for a period spanning from 2000 to 2009. Considering that technical inefficiency could be influenced by two main annual meteorological variables—the deviation of rainfalls and minimum temperature from the 1971–2000 mean value—and by seasonal rainfalls and minimum temperature moving average values, we find that annual, as well as spring and autumn rainfalls, have significant and beneficial effects on efficiency and hence on regional crop yields. The minimum temperature is efficiency-increasing in summer and winter while is detrimental in autumn. PubDate: 2020-01-20
Abstract: Abstract We propose an expectations formation mechanism (EFM) aimed to explain the median—hence lay—forecaster’s year-ahead inflation predictions. The EFM is a time-varying combination of long-run expectations, current inflation and uncertainty with weights naively calibrated according to inflation dynamics. Earning fixed income, in fact, the median forecaster has an aversion toward underestimation that increases with inflation. To allow for occasional—albeit unintentional—cost-minimizing calibrations, the EFM nests various forecasting rules. Data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers sustains the argued behavior and contributes to interpret some puzzling price dynamics such as the missing disinflation and reflation. PubDate: 2019-12-06
Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the impact of Export Promotion Programs (EPPs) in Lombardy—one of the richest region in Italy and one of the four Motors of Europe—on the export performance of beneficiary firms. To assess the impact of the EPPs, we applied a fixed-effect differences-in-differences estimator with ex-ante matching. We shed light on why and how EPPs work by exploring in details what dimensions of export performance respond better to these programs, which support services are more related to export success and which firms benefit more. Our estimates suggest that assisted firms show higher export propensity and export intensity than non-assisted firms, with micro- and small-sized firms and already exporting firms benefiting the most. Last but not least, the effect of EPPs remains positive and significant even when the potential impact of other subsidies is accounted for. These results are useful for improving the design of EPPs. PubDate: 2019-12-05
Abstract: Abstract This paper analyses both the policy and welfare consequences of municipal mergers vs municipal consortia in the presence of spillovers and inequalities in the districts size. Citizens of different municipalities have a common interest in internalising spillovers, but conflicting interests on how to reach that goal. We address the question of when, from a welfare point of view, the central government should legislate in favour of municipal mergers and when, instead, it should prefer municipal consortia. Results provide some useful insights for the design of local governments reforms. PubDate: 2019-11-29
Abstract: Abstract In this work we focus on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflowing in the “agriculture and fishing” sector of the OECD area to observe how and with what magnitude it impacts on Methane (CH4) emission. A dataset containing statistics for 30 OECD countries from 1990 to 2015 is organised and analysed through the panel data technique. We find positive coefficients characterising the relationships of the technique, scale and cumulative effects of FDI on CH4 which would denote the detrimental role FDI has on the environment. However, the very low magnitude shown by the estimated coefficients highlights a very minimal influence of FDI on CH4, which even decreases as FDI grows. According to the literature on free market economy, we particularly explain this result by referring to FDI as a driving force of technology transfer capable of promoting allocative efficiency among countries and generating minor levels of environmental impact. Therefore, we argue in favour of those policy indications supporting the strengthening of investment in the sector. Our results are consistent across different estimators and robust to a number of alternative specifications. PubDate: 2019-11-23
Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates how subcontracting affects collusion in public procurement. In a model in which a public buyer runs simultaneous or sequential competitive procedures we show that the stability of collusive agreements depends on the level of subcontracting share and it is not necessarily increasing in this share. In a repeated procurement in which contractors and subcontractors are involved in collusive agreements enforced by slit award and bid rotation strategies we find that simultaneous procedures induce less collusion than sequential procedures, with split award strategies allowing the less stable collusive scheme. We also find that allowing a further increase in the subcontracting share strengthens collusion when the share is low but it mitigates collusion when the share is high. Thus, the competitive format and the allowed subcontracting share must be carefully managed by the public buyer in order to prevent collusion. PubDate: 2019-11-07
Abstract: Abstract From the 1990s the Italian agribusiness sector is increasingly threatened by a new and dangerous phenomenon: organized crime in the agribusiness sector. The so-called “Agromafia” imposes its control throughout the whole agricultural supply chain, from production to retail, passing through the processing industry, transports and large-scale distribution. In this paper we examine the relationship between eco-crimes and consumer food and non-alcoholic drinks price index for the 20 Italian regions and 80 Italian provinces in the 1998–2016 period. At regional level, as a proxy for the Agromafia’s activities, we build an ad hoc eco-criminal index for every region using data annually elaborated from Legambiente. At province level, as a proxy for Agromafia’s activities, we use eight specific variables: extortions, counterfeiting, contraband, forest fires, all types of fires, money laundering, suspicious money transfers, and an ad hoc eco-criminal index. The analysis shows that the Agromafia can consistently affect the whole agribusiness sector, causing an increase in food prices, especially in south of the country. The ten most affected provinces by phenomenon register a food consumer price index about 12% higher than the least ten affected provinces. By the contrast, in the center-north of Italy money laundering seems to reduce food consumer prices through the reinvestment of illicit proceeds in firms with strong cost advantages. PubDate: 2019-10-31
Abstract: Abstract The paper offers a new country classification system defined in relative terms and jointly based on the level and the medium–long term rate of growth of per capita income. The classification system identifies four categories of economies: poor (low income–low growth), emerging (low income–high growth), booming (high income–high growth) and affluent (high income–low growth). After classifying 122 countries in periods 1985–1999 and 2000–2014, the paper focuses on the comparison of poor and emerging economies and, in parallel, of emerging and high-income economies, and characterizes their transitions across categories. In line with the empirical literature on economic growth, the results of multinomial logit analysis suggest that higher growth rates of export and investment are the main factors distinguishing emerging from poor economies. Further, a better institutional setting, measured by various dimensions of economic freedom, plays an important role in driving the transition of low income countries from low to high growth. Moreover, along with a better technological advancement, it also represents the crucial attribute differentiating high-income from emerging economies. PubDate: 2019-10-29
Abstract: Abstract We study investments in education made by a continuum of individuals under imperfect information on returns. In the model, the wage accruing to single units of human capital is bargained in the labour market. In addition, this wage depends positively on a stochastic fundamental and, negatively, on the aggregate supply of human capital. At the time of investment, any agent observes a public and a private signal of the fundamental. We show that an increase in the precision of the public signal has an ambiguous impact on the expected social welfare. On the one hand, social welfare improves as schooling decisions become closer to those decisions that would be made under perfect information. On the other hand, social welfare deteriorates as externalities and coordination failures become more severe. The key result of our analysis is that an increase in the quality of public information turns out to be welfare improving, unless the distortions on the labour market are particularly strong. PubDate: 2019-10-17
Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the degree of integration among markets using wholesale electricity prices, which arises from the link between the long-run dynamics of fuel prices and electricity prices. We address the question of whether European electricity markets have experienced convergence patterns in recent years, using the stochastic definitions of convergence and common trend based on cointegration analysis. We apply a vector error correction model to a representative sample of electricity spot prices of European markets, including those of Italy, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and the integrated market of Germany and Austria. We analyze both the long- and the short-run system properties, studying their persistence profiles. The short-run analysis reveals the non-significance of adjustment coefficients of the market prices in the Netherlands and Poland. Moreover, the Netherlands Granger causes Poland and the integrated market of German and Austria, but the reverse is not true. A unidirectional Granger causality is also found for France and Germany and Austria toward Italy. Given the cointegrating equilibrium, all country-specific price dynamics converge toward the steady state, but most of the exogenous shocks have permanent effects. Forecast error variance decomposition analysis clearly highlights that orthogonalized shocks largely affect the variance of neighboring markets. PubDate: 2019-10-14
Abstract: Abstract The problem of young NEETs (not in education, employment and training) strongly affects countries where youth unemployment is high and investment in human capital is scarce, such as Italy. The share of young NEETs in Italy is double the European average in post-2007 crisis values and approximately 4–6% greater than precrisis values. We suggest that the local human capital endowment forms an educational and cultural base that can discourage the status of inactivity among young people, i.e., those at risk of becoming NEETs during the years of the postcrisis recession. The effect of parents’ education is confirmed in Italy, and this effect is stronger when considering parents’ advanced education (proxied by the tertiary education of the adult population) in urging young people to complete their studies or to enter the labor market. Furthermore, a control analysis that tests the regressors’ effects on the parallel phenomena of youth unemployment and school dropout suggests common ground on which to base appropriate policy interventions. PubDate: 2019-10-04
Abstract: Abstract A considerable amount of studies in the transport literature is aimed at understanding the behavioural processes underlying travel choices, like mode and destination choices. In the present work, we propose the use of evolutionary game theory as a framework to study commuter mode choice. Evolutionary game models work under the assumptions that agents are boundedly rational and imitate others’ behaviour. We examine the possible dynamics that can emerge in a homogeneous urban population where commuters can choose between two modes, private car or public transport. We obtain a different number of equilibria depending on the values of the parameters of the model. We carry out comparative-static exercises and examine possible policy measures that can be implemented in order to modify the agents’ payoff, and consequently the equilibria of the system, leading society towards more sustainable transportation patterns. PubDate: 2019-10-01
Abstract: Abstract Although the recent empirical literature provides a satisfactory range of estimates of food waste at the national and global level, little attention has been devoted to lower units of aggregation. This article tackles the phenomenon of urban food waste (UFW), proposing an analysis of consumer behaviour at the local level. Using institutional data for Italian provinces, over an 11-year time span (2004–2014), we estimate the amounts of UFW and subsequently investigate the extent of persistence and spatial spillovers using the local Moran transition probability matrix. Our results suggest that the good and bad practices in food consumption that determine the levels of UFW are persistent over time. Moreover, they produce a (though limited) spatial spillover, affecting consumption practices in the neighbouring areas. Two province clusters emerge, one in Northern and Central Italy, featuring negative behaviours and the other one in South-Central and Southern Italy, displaying virtuous behaviours. This situation calls for public policies aimed at promoting convergence in the levels of UFW. PubDate: 2019-10-01
Abstract: This paper investigates theatre consumption in Italy in 3 years, 1995, 2000 and 2006 using data provided by the Italian Institute of Statistics (2006 the latest year for such data) and the Italian Society of Authors and Publishers. These data sets are very large and rarely analysed in the current economic literature. Explanatory variables are determined by identifying their contributions to both the probability to attend, and the probability to attend more, using the finite mixture regression model. Socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics, participation in other cultural activities, ticket price and theatre supply are taken into account to varying extents. Three main findings emerge based on a more generous sample than past analyses. The strong confirmation of a priori expectations for education and occupation variables. The different impact of explanatory variables on the decision to attend and the decision to attend more. Finally, a remarkable consistency of results across the 3 year surveys and the different model specifications. PubDate: 2019-10-01
Abstract: Abstract This paper analyses the Italian economic stagnation in a Kaldorian framework. On the theoretical ground we propose an interpretation of the Italian economic stagnation based on the continuous reduction of aggregate demand and labour productivity. We also consider the role of the banking sector as a factor driving aggregate demand and, in turn, labour productivity. We estimate a VAR for the period 2002–2015 to analyse jointly the evolution of private consumption, real GDP, private investments, credit supply, labour compensation and productivity. Our main empirical finding is that aggregate demand and credit supply significantly affect the path of labour productivity, consistently with Kaldor–Verdoorn Law. PubDate: 2019-10-01
Abstract: Abstract Conventional theories of competition classify contests as being either “productive”, when the competitive efforts generate a surplus for society, or “unproductive”, when competition generates no social surplus and merely distributes already existing resources. These two discrete categories of competition create a division of real-world situations into analytical categories that fails to recognize the entire spectrum of competitive activities. Taking the existing models of productive and unproductive competition as benchmark idealizations, this paper revisits the relationship between the privately and socially optimal levels of competition in the full range of intermediate cases, as well as in the extremum cases of destructive and super-productive competition. PubDate: 2019-10-01
Abstract: Abstract The effect of early school entry on pupils’ educational outcomes is investigated using data covering the entire population of Italian primary school students and exploiting exogenous thresholds imposed by legislation regulating school entry. Evaluation tests are set at different dates for different cohorts so that the effects of age-at-test and age-at-school-entry on pupils’ performance can be disentangled. Results highlight that despite a negative and significant effect of age-at-test, the negative effect of early enrollment on scores is still present and it lasts for the entire primary education path. PubDate: 2019-10-01
Abstract: Abstract Housing market rigidities or inefficiencies can damage labour market outcomes and increase unemployment. Also, a related research stream claims that higher homeownership rates are associated with fewer new businesses. Using a search-and-matching model, this theoretical paper investigates the inexplicably neglected relation between homeownership and entrepreneurship by distinguishing two channels through which homeownership affects the creation of enterprises and jobs. The first channel looks at the job search intensity of homeowners, while the second considers the link between the benefit of being a homeowner and the revenues of a new enterprise that is run by the homeowner. The main result of this paper is that the intrinsic preference for homeownership plays a key role in the establishment of new businesses, while in general homeownership does not encourage the development of existing enterprises. Indeed, a panel analysis in Italy confirms the main finding of the search-and-matching model, namely outright homeownership encourages the creation of new small businesses. PubDate: 2019-10-01
Abstract: Abstract This study explores the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, financial development and disaggregated energy consumption among the top 10 countries with the highest CO2 emissions (Canada, China, Germany, India, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Russia, UK and US). The study uses panel data for the period 1990–2014 within a multivariate framework. The econometric techniques of cross-sectional dependence unit root test, panel co-integration (Levine, Lin and Chun; Breitung; Im, Pesaran and Shin; Fisher-Augmented Dickey Fuller and Fisher-Phillips Perrron) tests, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger causality tests are applied for the unit root test, co-integration, estimation of long-run coefficients as well as inference on the causal relationship respectively. Pesaran’s cross-sectional unit root test shows that variables are integrated of the first order. Pedroni’s heterogeneous panel co-integration tests reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The Granger-causality results indicate both short-run and long-run causality among renewable, fossil fuel energy and financial development and GHG emissions. The results’ findings have important policy implications for environmental quality, and thus, GHG emissions’ reduction using a higher percentage of energy from renewable energy. In addition, there is need for countries to increase financial support on renewable energy infrastructure construction as well as transformation of fossil fuel energy utilization. PubDate: 2019-07-20
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