Abstract: Unfortunately, the original article was published with discrepancy in the copyright holder name between A++ (International Monetary Fund) and PDF file (Springer Nature Switzerland AG). PubDate: 2020-10-16
Abstract: Abstract This paper tests whether a temporary experience of income scarcity in the recent past affects the current perception of financial fragility, and whether this effect varies according to the welfare system of the country of residence. Using EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Condition) longitudinal data in 2010–2013 period, two main results emerge. First, individuals who transited out of a short spell of scarcity tend to record higher financial fragility (as measured by the indicator “ability to make ends meet”) than those who never experienced it, even after controlling for the current level of household income. When a more objective measure of financial fragility is taken (financial burden of total housing costs), the effect is weaker and disappears once current income is accounted for. Second, the scarcity effect on perceived financial fragility differs according to the welfare system, whereby more generous welfare states (i.e. with greater incidence of social expenditure on GDP) appear to reduce the persistence of the effects of past income shocks on current well-being, while the level of targeting is not relevant. These results, which are robust to various robustness checks, support the idea that individual well-being is a multidimensional phenomenon not limited to more objective components such as income or wealth. Our results are in favour of a welfare system which ensures a more generous provision of services and does not focus only on the poorest section of a society. PubDate: 2020-10-01
Abstract: Abstract The class of flexible functional forms for the utility and cost function has been characterized by the pioneering work of Gorman (Some Engel curves. In: Deaton A (ed) Essays in the theory and measurement of consumer behaviour. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1981), known as the Gorman polar form. Despite several decades have elapsed, the economic literature has not found the most general functional form that satisfies Gorman’s theorem. This note provides a new general theoretical and parametric formulation of demand functions, labeled general expenditure system (GES), satisfying the Gorman requirement that the Engel curve cannot exceed a polynomial of third degree in expenditure. Estimates show that the GES is a significant generalization of previous popular flexible functions. PubDate: 2020-10-01
Abstract: Abstract Electoral systems are rules through which votes translate into seats in parliament. The political economy literature tells us that alternative electoral systems can generate different distributions of power among different social groups in the legislature and therefore lead to different equilibrium economic policies. On the other hand, we know from the endogenous economic growth literature that economic policy can affect growth. What the literature is lacking is a clear link between electoral systems and economic growth. The main objective of this paper is to establish a connection between them. Two main results emerge from our model. First, electoral systems matter for economic growth. Second, the way in which they matter is not straightforward. A precise ranking of these political institutions in terms of economic growth requires the knowledge of the distribution of people among different social classes in society. PubDate: 2020-10-01
Abstract: Abstract The paper presents an agent-based model developed to investigate the relationship between retirement age and pension system sustainability taking into account the redistributive implication. Moreover, we investigate the role that the government can play in reducing inequality by implementing debt stabilisation policies, as for example applying a property tax. Results show that delaying the retirement age is an effective policy to raise the pension scheme sustainability. However, there is an emerging trade-off between the pension system sustainability and the extension of the pension benefits that may have intergenerational implications. Pension reforms which reduce the pension age threshold or increase the paid benefit will rise the overall pension expenditure and will negatively affect the public debt evolution which may require some stabilisation measures, as the implementation of positive property taxation. The effects of the property taxation on the debt reduction and the level of equality in the population’s wealth distribution strongly depends on the progressivity of the measure and on the size of the taxpayer population involved. The analysis evidences the crucial role played by the age dependency ratio both in achieving the pension system sustainability and in assuring the wealth distribution within the population. PubDate: 2020-10-01
Abstract: Abstract Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (2004, 2006, 2011, 2013 and 2015), we analyse the determinants of adult children’s transfers of money and time to their parents. Specifically, we focus on reciprocity: analysing resource transfers, in term of both time (i.e., informal care) and money (i.e., financial transfers), helps us understand how parent-to-child transfers may influence the probability of child-to-parent transfers. A multivariate probit model for 10 EU countries is used to simultaneously estimate the probabilities that informal care or financial transfers will be given by children to their parents and, conversely, by parents to their children. Using the longitudinal structure of the data, we consider both concurrent and intertemporal reciprocity. The evidence for reciprocity is different based on the type of transfer: we do not find evidence of reciprocity for time transfers (informal care provided to parents) except in the case of sons, for which a positive link between informal care given to parents and current financial transfers received from parents emerges. In contrast, we find a positive effect of parent-to-child transfers (both time and money) on the probability of child-to-parent financial transfers. PubDate: 2020-10-01
Abstract: Abstract From the 1990s the Italian agribusiness sector is increasingly threatened by a new and dangerous phenomenon: organized crime in the agribusiness sector. The so-called “Agromafia” imposes its control throughout the whole agricultural supply chain, from production to retail, passing through the processing industry, transports and large-scale distribution. In this paper we examine the relationship between eco-crimes and consumer food and non-alcoholic drinks price index for the 20 Italian regions and 80 Italian provinces in the 1998–2016 period. At regional level, as a proxy for the Agromafia’s activities, we build an ad hoc eco-criminal index for every region using data annually elaborated from Legambiente. At province level, as a proxy for Agromafia’s activities, we use eight specific variables: extortions, counterfeiting, contraband, forest fires, all types of fires, money laundering, suspicious money transfers, and an ad hoc eco-criminal index. The analysis shows that the Agromafia can consistently affect the whole agribusiness sector, causing an increase in food prices, especially in south of the country. The ten most affected provinces by phenomenon register a food consumer price index about 12% higher than the least ten affected provinces. By the contrast, in the center-north of Italy money laundering seems to reduce food consumer prices through the reinvestment of illicit proceeds in firms with strong cost advantages. PubDate: 2020-10-01
Abstract: Abstract We study the behaviour of individuals with different geographic origins interacting in a same public good game. We exploit the peculiar composition of the experimental sample to compare the performance of groups where individuals have mixed origins to homogeneous groups. We find that, despite the absence of any geographic framing, mixed groups exhibit significantly lower contributions. We also find that cooperation levels differ significantly across geographic origins, in line with the existing literature. This is explained by a different impact of coordination opportunities, such as communication, as we show by manipulating them. Our results point towards integration as a crucial aspect for the economic development of intercultural societies. They also confirm that, rather than being explained just by the differences in institutions and economic opportunities, the Italian North–South divide embeds elements of distrust, prejudice and a consequent path dependence in the level of social capital PubDate: 2020-10-01
Abstract: Abstract Harrodian instability emerges in post-Keynesian models because of the cumulative feedback between demand and investments. This paper presents a novel approach to deal with Harrodian instability. The main contribution is methodological and lies in the different theoretical mechanism adopted to avoid unstable dynamics. While the common approach relies on aggregative investment functions, we emphasize the role of heterogeneity in expectations as a stabilization device. We introduce a small-scale agent-based version of the so-called neo-Kaleckian model. The model features a parsimonious microfoundation of investment decisions. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about demand growth and set their investment expenditures in a decentralized way. Interactions occur through demand externalities. We present results for different scenarios. First, when heterogeneity is ruled out, Harrodian instability is shown to emerge as for the aggregate model. Instead, when heterogeneity is accounted for, a stable dynamics with endogenous fluctuations arises. At the same time, in this second scenario, all the Keynesian implications are preserved, including the presence of macroeconomic paradoxes. Sensitivity analysis confirms the general robustness of our results and the logical consistency of the model. PubDate: 2020-09-30
Abstract: Abstract After more than two decades of trade liberalization, faced with deep structural problems which were exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis and culminated in the 2011 Spring Revolution and government change, in 2016 Egypt started to protect some sectors from foreign competition. This paper assesses how tariff reforms during the 1998–2018 period affected the Egyptian labour market by focusing on real wages and job stability (i.e. having a permanent position). The empirical analysis is carried out on worker-level data from the available four waves of Egyptian Labour Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), including the recently released 2018 wave. We find that higher tariff protection tends to worsen labour market conditions, both lowering real wages and decreasing the probability of finding a stable job. Furthermore, tariff changes show remarkable asymmetries. There is a negative and significant correlation between tariffs increases and real wages, while the positive impact of tariff reductions turns out to be negligible and insignificant. Our findings support the view that in Egypt protectionism hampered working conditions, contributing to inequality, while liberalizations did not improve nor deteriorate them. PubDate: 2020-09-28
Abstract: Abstract Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balance by 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified. This paper seeks to contribute to the discussion by (1) assessing spending patterns to identify areas for savings; (2) evaluating the pension system; (3) analyzing the scope for revenue rebalancing; and (4) putting forward a package of spending cuts and tax rebalancing that is growth friendly and inclusive, could have limited near-term output costs, and would achieve a notable reduction in public debt over the medium term. Such a package could help the authorities balance the need to bring down public debt and, thus, reduce vulnerabilities while supporting the economic recovery. PubDate: 2020-09-16
Abstract: Abstract This study analyses the relationship between flexible employment, productivity and wages, along their distributions. We use an original firm-level dataset, which combines information on workplace characteristics from Rilevazione su Imprese e Lavoro (RIL) with the Analisi Informatizzata delle Aziende Italiane (AIDA) balance sheet information for the universe of Italian non-agriculture/financial corporations. We employ different quantile regression models to panel data and find, first, that use of temporary contracts is associated to a reduction in labour productivity and wages at each point in the corresponding distribution; and second, that the negative relationship between labour productivity and wages decreases in magnitude along the quantiles of the productivity and wage distributions, suggesting that low-productive/low-wage firms use temporary employment to permanently staff positions and to compress labour costs. PubDate: 2020-09-05
Abstract: Abstract This paper studies the relationship between the innovation performance of European regions and their resilience. By exploiting a novel dataset that includes patents and trademarks at the regional (NUTS2) level for the 2008–2016 period, the paper addresses two research questions: (1) are innovative regions more resilient' (2) which type of innovation is more conducive to resilience' We frame the relationship between resilience and innovation within the Schumpeterian notion of innovation as a ‘creative response in history’. Overall, we find that a stronger performance in innovation is associated with a better performance in employment both during and in the aftermarket of the 2008 financial crisis. We argue that learning capabilities built over time by regions make them more effective in adapting and recovering during major shocks. While the crisis may have created an opportunity for less developed regions to move ahead, this opportunity has in fact been grasped mainly by those already having a strong regional system of innovation in place. PubDate: 2020-08-14
Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement targets and an increasingly large public opinion movement world-wide require to progressively raise the ambition of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The European Union (EU) could play a crucial role in this process being one of the first Parties to submit its NDC and to call for the integration of the ratchet-up mechanism for ambition in the Paris Agreement. An enhanced EU NDC, therefore, would convey a powerful signal to the other UNFCCC Parties, reinforce the credibility of EU climate policy, and confirm the EU as a global “climate leader”. This paper examines whether and how the EU could enhance its NDC. For this purpose, it proposes some of the most likely and accredited options that could be pursued to achieve this goal. To dig deeper into this issue, the paper presents the results of a survey conducted among experts (scholars, practitioners, negotiators) and non-experts (students), using a mixed methods research design that combines qualitative and quantitative analyses to provide an ex-ante assessment of the selected policy options. The survey’s results show that increasing the EU NDC ambition is perceived as hard but feasible by both groups of interviewees. However, the non-experts’ group considers more options to be feasible showing in general a more optimistic attitude towards enhancing the EU NDC. PubDate: 2020-08-08
Abstract: Abstract This paper assesses the impact of being attractive and not being native on the gender gap in the opportunity of obtaining a job in Italy. To do so, we propose a field experiment that consists in sending 9680 fictitious curricula vitae to real firms looking for employees. We estimate an Heckit model in order to consider different response from firms and then to calculate the probability to receive a callback. We show that gender gap in opportunity of receiving a callback is a very important issue and this gap is affected by interaction with both attractiveness and not being italian natives, especially for the most qualified jobs. PubDate: 2020-08-03
Abstract: Abstract Over the past two decades, the Italian labour market has undergone a number of profound changes. A thorough analysis of these changes shows that there has been a progressive employment polarisation, although with a very peculiar dynamics. While employment did grow in high-skill and low-skill occupations, and it shrank in the medium-skill ones, these changes did not take place simultaneously, as polarisation assumes. Moreover, wage polarisation is hardly observable in the same period. Quite differently, Italy has been characterised by relatively low or even declining returns to education along with progressively decreasing wages in the low-skill segment of the labour market. In this context, we study the potential of an employment incentive policy, for which we imagine two options, one targeting workers in high-skill and the other in low-skill occupations. The objectives of the policy are enhancing aggregate employment and improving working conditions (wages) either in high-skill or low-skill occupations, depending of the option. For the simulation of the two policy options, we employ an integrated model that combines a macro disaggregated and multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a micro-simulation model. While the CGE model evaluates how the macroeconomic shock reverberates on the labour demand at industry level, the micro-simulation model computes how the changes in macroeconomic variables affect households’ decisions in terms of labour supply and final consumption. PubDate: 2020-07-22
Abstract: Abstract By Using a machine-learning algorithm based on BIC, we set up a reduced set of best predictors for Italian populist parties using data on the 2018 general elections at municipality level. Two different and clear patterns emerge, which provide partial support to theories on economic insecurity, cultural backlash, and political detachment. The Five-Star Movement is stronger in larger and unsafer municipalities, where people are younger, more unemployed and work more in services. On the contrary, Lega thrives in smaller and safer municipalities, where people are less educated and employed more in manufacturing and commerce. In a second step, by using our best predictors we predict the vote of the Italian parties in France, Spain, and United Kingdom, and confront them with those countries’ actual electoral outcomes. Results confirm that our models are able to catch some common features of the ongoing reshaping of the political arena. In conclusion, our analysis suggests that populist parties are re-grouping votes astray from the previous left/right cleavage. PubDate: 2020-07-21
Abstract: Abstract The aim of this work is to study the Kuznets curve in order to examine whether the hypothesis on inequality and development that he posited in his 1955 article is verified or not when using the data at our disposal today; these data are more numerous, both for countries and periods available, than when Kuznets originally conducted his study. The approach that makes this research unique is that it will be performed by differentiating the sample in terms of underdeveloped and developed countries. In this regard, at present (with the data and methodologies of Cochrane–Orcutt and GMM System), the Kuznets hypothesis seems to be robustly verified because, when taking a variable other than the Log GDPpc (GDP per capita in logarithms) as a measure of development, such as the HDI or the proportional contribution of the agricultural sector on GDP, the relationship described by Kuznets still seems to be present; this is not a regularity when using the basic GDPpc variable. Moreover, it has been observed that, over the very long term, the Milanovic hypothesis seems to appear; namely, that inequality follows a sinusoid form rather than a concave curve. Finally, a section has been included in which we see how the 3 effects (scale, technique and composition) of world trade on inequality affect, as has been applied in recent years on CO2 emissions in the Environmental Kuznets Curve. PubDate: 2020-07-03
Abstract: Abstract This article aims at providing a better understanding of the effect of electricity access onto labour market outcomes in Nigeria, a country which hosts the second largest population without access to electricity in the world after India, but which has received so far very little attention from the academic community. We assess, through a rigorous econometric analysis carried out employing probit, biprobit and propensity score matching, this impact on the proportion of employed working age components of a household. We consider both female and male employment as well as agricultural and non-agricultural employment separately, further disaggregating the effect between rural and urban households. Our results show that, once the possible endogeneity in the relationships under investigation is tackled, electricity access has indeed a relevant impact on particular labour market outcomes. Specifically, we show a consistent shift out of agricultural employment of around 7% and into non-agricultural employment of about 15%., with some evidence of a positive effect on overall labour participation. These findings show that the expansion of electricity access to households which are not yet connected to the grid could play a relevant role in both increasing labour market participation and in helping the transformation of the Nigerian economy away from agricultural activities. PubDate: 2020-07-02
Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the degree of integration among markets using wholesale electricity prices, which arises from the link between the long-run dynamics of fuel prices and electricity prices. We address the question of whether European electricity markets have experienced convergence patterns in recent years, using the stochastic definitions of convergence and common trend based on cointegration analysis. We apply a vector error correction model to a representative sample of electricity spot prices of European markets, including those of Italy, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and the integrated market of Germany and Austria. We analyze both the long- and the short-run system properties, studying their persistence profiles. The short-run analysis reveals the non-significance of adjustment coefficients of the market prices in the Netherlands and Poland. Moreover, the Netherlands Granger causes Poland and the integrated market of German and Austria, but the reverse is not true. A unidirectional Granger causality is also found for France and Germany and Austria toward Italy. Given the cointegrating equilibrium, all country-specific price dynamics converge toward the steady state, but most of the exogenous shocks have permanent effects. Forecast error variance decomposition analysis clearly highlights that orthogonalized shocks largely affect the variance of neighboring markets. PubDate: 2020-07-01
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