Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement targets and an increasingly large public opinion movement world-wide require to progressively raise the ambition of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The European Union (EU) could play a crucial role in this process being one of the first Parties to submit its NDC and to call for the integration of the ratchet-up mechanism for ambition in the Paris Agreement. An enhanced EU NDC, therefore, would convey a powerful signal to the other UNFCCC Parties, reinforce the credibility of EU climate policy, and confirm the EU as a global “climate leader”. This paper examines whether and how the EU could enhance its NDC. For this purpose, it proposes some of the most likely and accredited options that could be pursued to achieve this goal. To dig deeper into this issue, the paper presents the results of a survey conducted among experts (scholars, practitioners, negotiators) and non-experts (students), using a mixed methods research design that combines qualitative and quantitative analyses to provide an ex-ante assessment of the selected policy options. The survey’s results show that increasing the EU NDC ambition is perceived as hard but feasible by both groups of interviewees. However, the non-experts’ group considers more options to be feasible showing in general a more optimistic attitude towards enhancing the EU NDC. PubDate: 2020-08-08
Abstract: Abstract This paper assesses the impact of being attractive and not being native on the gender gap in the opportunity of obtaining a job in Italy. To do so, we propose a field experiment that consists in sending 9680 fictitious curricula vitae to real firms looking for employees. We estimate an Heckit model in order to consider different response from firms and then to calculate the probability to receive a callback. We show that gender gap in opportunity of receiving a callback is a very important issue and this gap is affected by interaction with both attractiveness and not being italian natives, especially for the most qualified jobs. PubDate: 2020-08-03
Abstract: Abstract Over the past two decades, the Italian labour market has undergone a number of profound changes. A thorough analysis of these changes shows that there has been a progressive employment polarisation, although with a very peculiar dynamics. While employment did grow in high-skill and low-skill occupations, and it shrank in the medium-skill ones, these changes did not take place simultaneously, as polarisation assumes. Moreover, wage polarisation is hardly observable in the same period. Quite differently, Italy has been characterised by relatively low or even declining returns to education along with progressively decreasing wages in the low-skill segment of the labour market. In this context, we study the potential of an employment incentive policy, for which we imagine two options, one targeting workers in high-skill and the other in low-skill occupations. The objectives of the policy are enhancing aggregate employment and improving working conditions (wages) either in high-skill or low-skill occupations, depending of the option. For the simulation of the two policy options, we employ an integrated model that combines a macro disaggregated and multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a micro-simulation model. While the CGE model evaluates how the macroeconomic shock reverberates on the labour demand at industry level, the micro-simulation model computes how the changes in macroeconomic variables affect households’ decisions in terms of labour supply and final consumption. PubDate: 2020-07-22
Abstract: Abstract By Using a machine-learning algorithm based on BIC, we set up a reduced set of best predictors for Italian populist parties using data on the 2018 general elections at municipality level. Two different and clear patterns emerge, which provide partial support to theories on economic insecurity, cultural backlash, and political detachment. The Five-Star Movement is stronger in larger and unsafer municipalities, where people are younger, more unemployed and work more in services. On the contrary, Lega thrives in smaller and safer municipalities, where people are less educated and employed more in manufacturing and commerce. In a second step, by using our best predictors we predict the vote of the Italian parties in France, Spain, and United Kingdom, and confront them with those countries’ actual electoral outcomes. Results confirm that our models are able to catch some common features of the ongoing reshaping of the political arena. In conclusion, our analysis suggests that populist parties are re-grouping votes astray from the previous left/right cleavage. PubDate: 2020-07-21
Abstract: Abstract The aim of this work is to study the Kuznets curve in order to examine whether the hypothesis on inequality and development that he posited in his 1955 article is verified or not when using the data at our disposal today; these data are more numerous, both for countries and periods available, than when Kuznets originally conducted his study. The approach that makes this research unique is that it will be performed by differentiating the sample in terms of underdeveloped and developed countries. In this regard, at present (with the data and methodologies of Cochrane–Orcutt and GMM System), the Kuznets hypothesis seems to be robustly verified because, when taking a variable other than the Log GDPpc (GDP per capita in logarithms) as a measure of development, such as the HDI or the proportional contribution of the agricultural sector on GDP, the relationship described by Kuznets still seems to be present; this is not a regularity when using the basic GDPpc variable. Moreover, it has been observed that, over the very long term, the Milanovic hypothesis seems to appear; namely, that inequality follows a sinusoid form rather than a concave curve. Finally, a section has been included in which we see how the 3 effects (scale, technique and composition) of world trade on inequality affect, as has been applied in recent years on CO2 emissions in the Environmental Kuznets Curve. PubDate: 2020-07-03
Abstract: Abstract This article aims at providing a better understanding of the effect of electricity access onto labour market outcomes in Nigeria, a country which hosts the second largest population without access to electricity in the world after India, but which has received so far very little attention from the academic community. We assess, through a rigorous econometric analysis carried out employing probit, biprobit and propensity score matching, this impact on the proportion of employed working age components of a household. We consider both female and male employment as well as agricultural and non-agricultural employment separately, further disaggregating the effect between rural and urban households. Our results show that, once the possible endogeneity in the relationships under investigation is tackled, electricity access has indeed a relevant impact on particular labour market outcomes. Specifically, we show a consistent shift out of agricultural employment of around 7% and into non-agricultural employment of about 15%., with some evidence of a positive effect on overall labour participation. These findings show that the expansion of electricity access to households which are not yet connected to the grid could play a relevant role in both increasing labour market participation and in helping the transformation of the Nigerian economy away from agricultural activities. PubDate: 2020-07-02
Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the degree of integration among markets using wholesale electricity prices, which arises from the link between the long-run dynamics of fuel prices and electricity prices. We address the question of whether European electricity markets have experienced convergence patterns in recent years, using the stochastic definitions of convergence and common trend based on cointegration analysis. We apply a vector error correction model to a representative sample of electricity spot prices of European markets, including those of Italy, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and the integrated market of Germany and Austria. We analyze both the long- and the short-run system properties, studying their persistence profiles. The short-run analysis reveals the non-significance of adjustment coefficients of the market prices in the Netherlands and Poland. Moreover, the Netherlands Granger causes Poland and the integrated market of German and Austria, but the reverse is not true. A unidirectional Granger causality is also found for France and Germany and Austria toward Italy. Given the cointegrating equilibrium, all country-specific price dynamics converge toward the steady state, but most of the exogenous shocks have permanent effects. Forecast error variance decomposition analysis clearly highlights that orthogonalized shocks largely affect the variance of neighboring markets. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the impact of Export Promotion Programs (EPPs) in Lombardy—one of the richest region in Italy and one of the four Motors of Europe—on the export performance of beneficiary firms. To assess the impact of the EPPs, we applied a fixed-effect differences-in-differences estimator with ex-ante matching. We shed light on why and how EPPs work by exploring in details what dimensions of export performance respond better to these programs, which support services are more related to export success and which firms benefit more. Our estimates suggest that assisted firms show higher export propensity and export intensity than non-assisted firms, with micro- and small-sized firms and already exporting firms benefiting the most. Last but not least, the effect of EPPs remains positive and significant even when the potential impact of other subsidies is accounted for. These results are useful for improving the design of EPPs. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract People with the same characteristics can experience very different permanent employment outcomes. This study exploits a unique setting in Italy to provide evidence on regional disparities in the commitment of the training provision and in the enforcement of the open-ended nature of vocational apprenticeships set out by a nation-wide reform. As a consequence, regional heterogeneity in permanent employment rates in both the short- and medium-run is estimated. Medium-run gains are possible even in absence of any impact at the baseline. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract This paper quantitatively assesses the negative impact of land discontinuity on the development of a railway network on an island. This implicit cost of insularity is because an insular railway network only serves the territory in which it is located while the same network on a mainland also serves other regions. We apply this idea to the case of a simplified Italian railway network and we implement it through a simulation model. The simulation results highlight the strong negative effect of land discontinuity: whereas the railway lines located on the island of Sardinia are the least profitable under the factual scenario, their relative profitability is significantly boosted in every counterfactual scenario where the land discontinuity is artificially removed. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we empirically investigate if and how the Italian Law on Network Contracts was able to trigger the establishment of networks among the involved firms. This law defined network contracts as agreements among firms to cooperate in order to improve, both individually and collectively, their innovative capacity and competitiveness in the market. It promoted them in virtually all Italian regions. During the year 2012, 213 network contracts were signed involving a total of 1083 firms. The empirical analysis shows that network contracts provide an answer to the various needs that the firms involved, if acting as single entities, cannot tackle. Indeed, on the one side, when firms that signed a network contract were characterised by mixed types of ownerships regimes, this fact negatively affected the performance of the firms involved although they ranked in the top positions in terms of correspondence with the aims of the law. The opposite holds when we consider firms within network contracts characterised by the presence of joint shareholding: this shows that despite a positive impact on performance, these networks are not specifically targeted by the law. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract In the next future, climate change effects will represent a challenge for Europe and the Mediterranean area. These will have to cope with a rapid increase in climate variability. Although many economic sectors may be affected, agriculture is the most susceptible as climate heavily affects crop production trends, yield variability and the availability of areas suitable for cultivation. Using the stochastic frontier approach, the aim of this work is to analyse the impacts of climate variability on Italian regional technical efficiency in the agricultural sector for a period spanning from 2000 to 2009. Considering that technical inefficiency could be influenced by two main annual meteorological variables—the deviation of rainfalls and minimum temperature from the 1971–2000 mean value—and by seasonal rainfalls and minimum temperature moving average values, we find that annual, as well as spring and autumn rainfalls, have significant and beneficial effects on efficiency and hence on regional crop yields. The minimum temperature is efficiency-increasing in summer and winter while is detrimental in autumn. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract It is widely recognized that childcare has important pedagogical, economic and social effects on both children and parents. This paper is the first attempt to estimate a joint structural model of female labour supply and childcare behavior applied to Italy in order to analyse the effects of relaxing the existing constraints in terms of childcare availability and costs by considering public, private and informal childcare. Results suggest that Italian households might alter their childcare and labour supply behaviors substantially if the coverage rate of formal childcare increases to reach the European targets. Overall, increasing child care coverage is estimated to be more effective in enhancing labour incentives than decreasing existing child care costs, at the same budgetary cost. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract We develop a two-stage Salop-type model to examine quality-improving and process innovation alliances in an oligopolistic context. In the first stage, a network of alliances among firms is assumed while in the second stage firms set prices, product quality and cost-reducing process innovation. We find that quality-improving networks tend to be denser than networks characterized by process innovation sharing, while the quality effort decreases with the number of connections. Furthermore, link formation is welfare improving if both absorptive capacity and quality spillovers are sufficiently small. Although the empirical evidence on cooperation in R&D is fragmentary it nonetheless supports most of the theoretical predictions. We also formulate some variants of the model to assess the robustness of the previous results. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract The separate collection of individual recyclable waste materials is the basis for any recycling process. This produces important advantages, especially in terms of resource savings. This paper investigates the drivers of the separate collection process of recyclable materials (i.e., organic, paper, glass, plastic) and its total in the 103 Italian provinces (NUTS-3), in the years 2004–2011. Results show that the pillars of institutional quality (such as, voice and accountability, rule of law and regulatory quality), value added per capita and participation to ecological associations are important factors for an effective implementation of the waste separation process. In particular, these factors do matter for an effective collection of organic waste, paper, glass and plastic. Furthermore, the analysis shows marked differences among macro-areas (North, Central and Southern Italy). Policy considerations are discussed. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract In this work we focus on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflowing in the “agriculture and fishing” sector of the OECD area to observe how and with what magnitude it impacts on Methane (CH4) emission. A dataset containing statistics for 30 OECD countries from 1990 to 2015 is organised and analysed through the panel data technique. We find positive coefficients characterising the relationships of the technique, scale and cumulative effects of FDI on CH4 which would denote the detrimental role FDI has on the environment. However, the very low magnitude shown by the estimated coefficients highlights a very minimal influence of FDI on CH4, which even decreases as FDI grows. According to the literature on free market economy, we particularly explain this result by referring to FDI as a driving force of technology transfer capable of promoting allocative efficiency among countries and generating minor levels of environmental impact. Therefore, we argue in favour of those policy indications supporting the strengthening of investment in the sector. Our results are consistent across different estimators and robust to a number of alternative specifications. PubDate: 2020-07-01
Abstract: Abstract This paper provides a thorough description of anti-dumping activities in the period 1980–2015, with a focus on measures imposed by the European Union and the United States. We document a series of stylized facts, such as the emergence of China as a major target of administered protection, the concentration of duties in few sectors, and the increasing share of intermediate goods subject to anti-dumping measures. Product-level information on Chinese exporting firms shows that anti-dumping does indeed reduce exports and it has an impact on both the extensive and the intensive margin of trade. Moreover, the price of targeted products tends to rise marginally, so that the fall in export quantities is particularly strong. PubDate: 2020-06-19
Abstract: Abstract This paper tests whether a temporary experience of income scarcity in the recent past affects the current perception of financial fragility, and whether this effect varies according to the welfare system of the country of residence. Using EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Condition) longitudinal data in 2010–2013 period, two main results emerge. First, individuals who transited out of a short spell of scarcity tend to record higher financial fragility (as measured by the indicator “ability to make ends meet”) than those who never experienced it, even after controlling for the current level of household income. When a more objective measure of financial fragility is taken (financial burden of total housing costs), the effect is weaker and disappears once current income is accounted for. Second, the scarcity effect on perceived financial fragility differs according to the welfare system, whereby more generous welfare states (i.e. with greater incidence of social expenditure on GDP) appear to reduce the persistence of the effects of past income shocks on current well-being, while the level of targeting is not relevant. These results, which are robust to various robustness checks, support the idea that individual well-being is a multidimensional phenomenon not limited to more objective components such as income or wealth. Our results are in favour of a welfare system which ensures a more generous provision of services and does not focus only on the poorest section of a society. PubDate: 2020-06-17
Abstract: Abstract The derivatives market has experienced quick growth internationally in the last two decades. Banks decide to participate in the derivatives market either to hedge against unexpected movements in economic variables or for trading and broker–dealer activities. This paper analyses the determinants of Italian banks’ use of derivatives over a long time horizon (2003–2017) by using quarterly Bank of Italy supervisory data. We find that size and being part of a banking group positively affect the banks’ use of derivatives. Moreover, these banks mainly employ derivatives for hedging purposes, especially to hedge against interest rate and credit risks. Finally, derivatives represent a hedging alternative to capital and liquidity, while dealers behave differently when involved in the trading activity. We also take some characteristics that delineate the bank’s business model into account. For example, lower dependence on retail deposits or higher exposure to interbank funding are positively associated with the use of derivatives. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of the main determinants of derivatives across different types of crises and normal times. Our results are robust to different specifications that take into account the classification of derivatives by purpose (hedging versus trading). PubDate: 2020-04-22
Abstract: Abstract This paper studies the evolutionary dynamics of a market regulated by an auctioned emission trading system with a price floor in which there exist three populations of firms that interact strategically: (i) non-polluting, (ii) polluting and compliant, (iii) polluting but non-compliant. Firms that adopt a non-polluting technology need no permits to operate, while firms that use a polluting technology can either buy the required permits (and be compliant) or not (being non-compliant). The latter do not buy emission permits and face the risk to be sanctioned if discovered. From the analysis of the model emerges that all three types of firms coexist at the equilibrium only under specific parameter values. More precisely, it can generically be excluded the coexistence between non-polluting firms and non-compliant polluting ones. The regulatory authority can favor the extinction of non-compliant firms by increasing their probability of being discovered and/or the sanction level. Moreover, the regulatory authority can favor the diffusion of innovation by increasing the permits price floor since polluting-compliant firms exit the market and new non-polluting firms enter the market. However, this policy instrument should be used with caution because it tends to increase also the number of non-compliant firms. PubDate: 2020-03-19
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