Authors:Wai-Hong Ho Abstract: This paper explores the dynamic consequences of variable investment-project size in a global economy consisting of many small open countries that are plagued with domestic credit market frictions. As is customary in the literature, borrowers provide some internal funds, but they also need external funds to implement their investment projects, which are subject to the costly-state-verification problem. Contrary to the literature, the investment-project size increases with the country’s own capital stock. We find that financial market globalization may lead to a process of oscillatory convergence, even in the absence of any exogenous shocks, if the investment-project size is very sensitive to the change in capital stock. PubDate: 2017-02-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0293-0

Authors:Ping Wu; Robert J. Elliott Abstract: This paper develops a new approach to obtain the price and risk sensitivities of basket options which have a volatility smile. Using this approach, the Black–Scholes model and the Stochastic Volatility Inspired model have been used to obtain an approximate analytical pricing formula for basket options with a volatility smile. It is found that our approximate formula is quite accurate by comparing it with Monte Carlo simulations. It is also proved the option value of our approach is consistent with the option value generated by Levy’s and Gentle’s approaches for typical ranges of volatility. Further, we give a theoretical proof that the option values from Levy’s and Gentle’s works are the upper bound and the lower bound, respectively, for our option value. The calibration procedure and a practical example are provided. The main advantage of our approach is that it provides accurate and easily implemented basket option prices with volatility smile and hedge parameters and avoids the need to use time-consuming numerical procedures such as Monte Carlo simulation. PubDate: 2017-01-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0292-1

Authors:Roseline Bilina Falafala; Robert A. Jarrow; Philip Protter Pages: 135 - 160 Abstract: In models of financial bubbles, the price of a stock is typically unbounded, and this plays a fundamental role in the analysis of finite horizon local martingale bubbles. It would seem that price bubbles do not apply to a priori bounded risky asset prices, such as bond prices. To avoid this limitation, to characterize, and to identify bond price mispricings consistent with an absence of arbitrage, we develop the concept of a relative asset price bubble. This notion uses a risky asset’s price as the numéraire instead of the money market account’s value. This change of numéraire generates some interesting mathematical complexities because many important numéraires, including risky bonds, can vanish with positive probability over the model’s horizon. PubDate: 2016-02-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0274-8 Issue No:Vol. 12, No. 2 (2016)

Authors:Charles Richard Barrett; Ioanna Kokores; Somnath Sen Pages: 161 - 178 Abstract: In the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, monetary authorities, while pursuing traditional objectives, such as the control of inflation, are also eager to promote financial stability. In this paper, we model the strategic interaction of the central bank and the financial sector and explore a simple monetary policy game with perceived substantial risks to financial stability, where the central bank can be of two types, one pursuing strict inflation-targeting and the other concerned with affecting the expectations formed by the financial sector participants; however, the financial sector is unsure which, due to incomplete information. The conclusion is that for small shocks to inflation there is a pooling equilibrium, whereas for larger shocks there is separation. In the latter case, the central bank that has an explicit financial stability concern is willing to exercise more muted control to inflation in order to reinforce the safety of the financial sector. PubDate: 2016-04-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0276-6 Issue No:Vol. 12, No. 2 (2016)

Authors:Thomas A. Severini Pages: 179 - 199 Abstract: In the market model the return on an asset is modeled as a linear function of the return on a market index with slope parameter beta. The coefficient beta is often used as a measure of the sensitivity of the asset’s return to the market and to measure the component of the variance of the return that is explained by the market. However, both of these interpretations require the additional assumption that the error term in the market model has mean 0 conditional on the return on the market index, an assumption that is often difficult to verify in practice. In this paper, a nonparametric version of the market model is proposed that does not require such an assumption. This nonparametric model replaces the beta coefficient of the market model with a “beta curve” describing the relationship between the asset’s return and that of the market locally near a given value of the market return. The proposed model is applied to stock returns, as well as to returns on mutual funds. Corresponding tests of the market model are given and it is shown that the nonparametric model often provides an improvement over the standard parametric market model. PubDate: 2016-04-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0277-5 Issue No:Vol. 12, No. 2 (2016)

Authors:Dilip B. Madan Pages: 201 - 219 Abstract: No arbitrage for two price economies with no locally risk free asset implies that suitably benchmarked prices are nonlinear martingales. However, both the benchmarking asset and the measure change depend on the process being benchmarked. Further assumptions allow the nonlinear martingales in discrete time to become expectations with respect to a nonadditivity probability. Such nonlinear expectations are imminently reasonable given the lack of experience with tail events on both sides of the gain loss spectrum. Continuous time extensions employ measure distortions. The general valuation of economic activities and the leveraging of stability in benchmarked price processes is then addressed. Traditional asset pricing questions and investigations are then reopened for benchmarked prices. In particular, the analytics for benchmarked option pricing and the asset pricing theory for benchmarked prices in a limiting stationary state are developed. PubDate: 2016-04-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0278-4 Issue No:Vol. 12, No. 2 (2016)

Authors:Bjarne Astrup Jensen; Jørgen Aase Nielsen Pages: 221 - 243 Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze criteria for portfolio choice when two investors are forced to invest in a common portfolio and share the proceeds by a linear sharing rule. A similar situation with many investors is typical for defined contribution pension schemes. The restriction implies two sources of suboptimal investment decisions as seen from each of the two investors individually. One is the suboptimal choice of portfolio, the other is the forced linear sharing rule. We measure the combined consequence for each investor by their respective loss in wealth equivalent. We show that significant losses can arise when investors are diverse in their risk attitude. We also show that an investor with a low degree of risk aversion, like the logarithmic or the square root investor, often applied in portfolio choice models, can either inflict or be subject to severe losses when being forced to participate in such a common investment pool. PubDate: 2016-05-10 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0279-3 Issue No:Vol. 12, No. 2 (2016)

Authors:Joel M. Vanden Pages: 245 - 273 Abstract: This article shows how to construct an optimal capital structure for a private firm. Since the agents who supply the firm’s capital are risk averse, they diversify by holding both debt and equity. This can mitigate, or even eliminate, the classical risk shifting problem. There is a wealth effect since the optimal capital structure, which can involve multiple types of debt, depends on the amount of wealth that each agent contributes to the firm. However, it is shown that the agents’ equity holdings do not depend on the contributed amounts of wealth. Thus the model can produce a wedge between ownership rights and equity cashflow rights. These features are illustrated in a firm with three agents. PubDate: 2016-05-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0280-x Issue No:Vol. 12, No. 2 (2016)

Authors:Hiroaki Ohno; Kouki Sugawara Pages: 17 - 28 Abstract: We investigate the effect of lifetime uncertainty on economic growth by incorporating preference shocks into a variety-expansion model and comparing financial autarky and financial intermediaries. In this economy, long-term investment facilitates the promotion of R&D investment and the creation of new differentiated goods. Our results suggest that when risk aversion is high, an increase in number of differentiated goods slows down R&D investment through a decrease in the price index. Further, if the risk of early withdrawal and the liquidation cost of long-term investment are high, financial intermediaries have significant effects on the growth of variety. PubDate: 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-015-0270-4 Issue No:Vol. 12, No. 1 (2016)

Authors:Yuki Shigeta Abstract: We study portfolio selections under mean-variance preference with multiple priors for means and variances. We introduce two types of multiple priors, the priors for means and the priors for variances of risky asset returns. As our framework, in the absence of a risk-free asset, the global minimum-variance portfolio is optimal when the investor is extremely ambiguity averse with respect to means, and the equally weighted portfolio is optimal when the investor is extremely ambiguity averse with respect to variances. PubDate: 2016-12-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0291-7

Authors:Shahbaz Sheikh Abstract: This study investigates how the ex-ante threat of termination affects firm performance in innovation measured by number of patents and citations. Empirical results show that the threat of termination is negatively associated with both measures of firm innovation. This relation however is sensitive to industry structure. The negative effect of the threat of termination on innovation is statistically significant only for high-tech firms. For low-tech firms there is no statistically significant relation between the threat of termination and firm innovation. One plausible explanation is that high-tech firms are inherently risky and have higher rates of project failure. Adding the risk of higher threat of termination makes the manager more risk averse and forces her to avoid investing in value increasing innovations. Managers in low-tech firms don’t face such pressures. The policy implication is that high-tech firms should lower threat of termination and increase tolerance for project failure to encourage innovation. PubDate: 2016-12-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0290-8

Authors:Hideharu Funahashi; Masaaki Kijima Abstract: This study examines the effect of fractional volatility on option prices. To this end, we develop an approximation method for the pricing of European-style contingent claims when volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion. Through extensive numerical experiments, we confirm that the decrease in the smile amplitude under fractional volatility is much slower than that under the standard stochastic volatility model. We also show that the Hurst index under fractional volatility has a crucial impact on option prices when the maturity is short and speed of mean reversion is slow. On the contrary, the impact of the Hurst index on option prices reduces for long-dated options. PubDate: 2016-12-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0289-1

Authors:Marcella Lucchetta Abstract: We develop a simple general equilibrium model in which investment in a risky technology is subject to moral hazard and banks can extract market power rents. We show that more bank competition results in lower economy-wide risk, higher social welfare, lower bank capital ratios, more efficient production plans and Pareto-ranked real allocations. Perfect competition supports a second best allocation and optimal levels of bank risk and capitalization. These results are at variance with those obtained by a large literature that has studied a similar environment in partial equilibrium, they are empirically relevant, and carry significant implications for policy guidance. PubDate: 2016-11-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0288-2

Authors:Tomohiro Ota Abstract: This paper studies the intraday payment behaviour between heterogeneous banks as well as optimal intraday pricing schemes. The paper shows the social optimality of payment sequencing, which allows a bank to delay payments until the bank receives payments from the counterparty. The payment sequencing allows a bank with high liquidity cost to ‘recycle’ payment inflow from another bank with lower liqudity cost, reducing the aggregate cost of funding of banks to settle all payments. But we also see that the banks have an incentive to delay payments more than the payment sequencing requires. This underscores the importance of social planner’s role reducing settlement delay, while leaving socially efficient payment sequencing. In this context, we compare two different pricing schemes, a standard throughput guideline and a time-varying intraday tariff, to discuss the optimal incentive mechanisms in payment systems for the ‘socially efficient sequential settlement’. PubDate: 2016-11-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0287-3

Authors:Aleksandr G. Alekseev; Mikhail V. Sokolov Abstract: Benchmarking is a universal practice in portfolio management and is well-studied in the optimal portfolio selection literature. This paper derives axiomatic foundations of the relative return, which underlies a benchmark-based evaluation of portfolio performance. We show that the existence of a benchmark naturally arises from a few basic axioms and is tightly linked to the economic theory. Our method relies on the use of both axiomatic and economic approaches to index number theory. We also analyze the problem of optimal portfolio selection under complete uncertainty about a future price system, where the objective function is the relative return. PubDate: 2016-11-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0286-4

Authors:Andreas Haier; Ilya Molchanov; Michael Schmutz Abstract: When assessing group solvency, an important question is to what extent intragroup transfers may be taken into account, as this determines to which extent diversification can be achieved. We suggest a framework to explicitly describe the families of admissible transfers that range from the free movement of capital to excluding any transactions. The constraints on admissible transactions are described as random closed sets. The paper focuses on the corresponding solvency tests that amount to the existence of acceptable selections of the random sets of admissible transactions. PubDate: 2016-11-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0284-6

Authors:Jim Y. Jin; Shinji Kobayashi Abstract: The literature recognizes the qualitative effects of risk aversion on oligopolistic market performance, but less is known about their magnitudes. We quantitatively evaluate these effects in Cournot and Bertrand oligopolies where firms maximize mean-variance utilities under linear demand and costs. The impacts are very similar for the two types of oligopoly, but have opposite signs. The impacts of a firm’s risk aversion on outputs, prices, consumer surplus and social welfare can be expressed via potentially observable variables. Since these impacts resemble the effects of firms’ cost changes, a regulator can reduce or eliminate undesirable effects of risk aversion by changing firms’ costs with appropriate countervailing taxes. PubDate: 2016-11-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0285-5

Authors:Dilip B. Madan Abstract: Exponentials of squared returns in Gaussian densities, with their consequently thin tails, are replaced by the absolute return to form Laplacian and exponentially tilted Laplacian densities at unit time. Scaling provides densities at other maturities. Stochastic processes with these marginals are identified. In addition to a specific local volatility model the densities are consistent with the difference of compound exponential processes taken at log time and scaled by the square root of time. The underlying process has a single parameter, the constant variance rate of the process. Delta hedging using Laplacian and Asymmetric Laplacian implied volatilities are developed and compared with Black Merton Scholes implied volatility hedging.The hedging strategies are implemented for stylized businesses represented by dynamic volatility indexes. The Laplacian hedge is seen to be smoother for the skew trade. It also performs better through the financial crisis for the sale of strangles. The Laplacian and Gaussian models are then synthesized as special cases of a model allowing for other powers between unity and the square. Numerous hedging strategies may be run using different powers and biases in the probability of an up move. Adapted strategies that select the best performer on past quarterly data can dominate fixed strategies. Adapted hedging strategies can effectively reduce drawdowns in the marked to market value of businesses trading options. PubDate: 2016-11-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0282-8

Abstract: In the classical portfolio optimization problem considered by Merton, the resulting constant proportion investment plan requires a diffusive trading strategy. This means that, within any arbitrarily small time interval, the investor must impractically both buy and sell stocks. We study the problems of a mean-square and a power utility investor for whom the trading strategy is constrained to be smooth, i.e. nondiffusive. This means that over sufficiently small time intervals, the investor is either a seller or a buyer of stocks. The mathematical framework is built around quadratic objectives such that trading activity is punished quadratically. Mean-square utility is quadratic, and power utility is covered by quadratic punishment of distance to Merton’s power utility portfolio. We present semi-explicit solutions and, in a series of numerical illustrations, show the impact of trading constraints on the portfolio decision over the investment horizon. PubDate: 2016-11-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0283-7

Authors:Ryoichi Ikeda; Yoske Igarashi Abstract: We present a Merton (J Finance, 1974)-type structural model of credit risk in which the borrower firm refinances its debt, there is cost for bankruptcy, and the creditor has an option to extend the date of maturity of debt if the firm defaults. We show that a solution exists in such a model and in that solution the creditor has incentive to extend maturity to avoid bankruptcy cost. We solve the model numerically and argue that such maturity extension option for the creditor can have substantial impact on the debt and stock values of the firm. PubDate: 2016-10-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-016-0281-9