Authors:Horatio Cuesdeanu; Jens Carsten Jackwerth Pages: 289 - 329 Abstract: Abstract It has been a while since the literature on the pricing kernel puzzle was summarized in Jackwerth (Option-implied risk-neutral distributions and risk-aversion, The Research Foundation of AIMR, Charlotteville, 2004). That older survey also covered the topic of risk-neutral distributions, which was itself already surveyed in Jackwerth (J Deriv 2:66–82, 1999). Much has happened in those years and estimation of risk-neutral distributions has moved from new and exciting in the last half of the 1990s to becoming a well-understood technology. Thus, the present survey will focus on the pricing kernel puzzle, which was first discussed around 2000. We document the pricing kernel puzzle in several markets and present the latest evidence concerning its (non-)existence. Econometric studies are detailed which test for the pricing kernel puzzle. The present work adds much breadth in terms of economic explanations of the puzzle. New challenges for the field are described in the process. PubDate: 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0317-9 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 3 (2018)
Authors:Alex Young Pages: 331 - 342 Abstract: Abstract Targets provide incentives for earnings management, and a longstanding question is whether earnings management is undertaken opportunistically or to communicate private information about future firm value. To discriminate between these motivations, I follow analytical research showing that an increase in competition through a large decrease in tariffs disciplines managers and better aligns their interests with those of shareholders. Thus, if earnings management reflects managerial opportunism, then an increase in competition will decrease earnings management; and if it signals future performance expectations, then an increase in competition will increase earnings management. Consistent with earnings management indicating managerial opportunism, I show that an increase in competition decreases real earnings management to avoid reporting negative earnings or a negative change in earnings. In addition, by showing that the lessening of trade barriers through import tariff reductions reduces the use of real earnings management to meet or beat earnings targets, I provide evidence on the role of macroeconomic conditions as a determinant of earnings quality. PubDate: 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0313-0 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 3 (2018)
Authors:Vladislav Krasin; Ivan Smirnov; Alexander Melnikov Pages: 195 - 209 Abstract: Abstract This paper presents a methodology of finding explicit boundaries for some financial quantities via comparison of stochastic processes. The path-wise comparison theorem is used to establish domination of the stock price process by a process with a known distribution that is relatively simple. We demonstrate how the comparison theorem can be applied in the constant elasticity of variance model to derive closed-form expressions for option price bounds, an approximate hedging strategy and a conditional value-at-risk estimate. We also provide numerical examples and compare precision of our method with the distribution-free approach. PubDate: 2018-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0309-9 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 2 (2018)
Authors:Thomas F. Coleman; Alex LaPlante; Alexey Rubtsov Abstract: In the original publication, Table 6 was incorrect. The correct version of Table 6 is given for your reading. The original article has been corrected PubDate: 2018-09-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0332-5
Authors:Florence Guillaume; Gero Junike; Peter Leoni; Wim Schoutens Abstract: Abstract The theory of conic finance replaces the classical one-price model by a two-price model by determining bid and ask prices for future terminal cash flows in a consistent manner. In this framework, we derive closed-form solutions for bid and ask prices of plain vanilla European options, when the density of the log-returns is log-concave. Assuming that log-returns are normally or Laplace distributed, we apply the results to a time-series of real market data and compute an implied liquidity risk premium to describe the bid–ask spread. We compare this approach to the classical attempt of describing the spread by quoting Black–Scholes implied bid and ask volatilities and demonstrate that the new approach characterize liquidity over time significantly better. PubDate: 2018-09-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0339-y
Authors:Tim Leung; Zheng Wang Abstract: Abstract This paper studies the optimal risk-averse timing to sell a risky asset. The investor’s risk preference is described by the exponential, power, or log utility. Two stochastic models are considered for the asset price— the geometric Brownian motion and exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models—to account for, respectively, the trending and mean-reverting price dynamics. In all cases, we derive the optimal thresholds and certainty equivalents to sell the asset, and compare them across models and utilities, with emphasis on their dependence on asset price, risk aversion, and quantity. We find that the timing option may render the investor’s value function and certainty equivalent non-concave in price. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the investor’s strategies and the premium associated with optimally timing to sell. PubDate: 2018-09-11 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0336-1
Authors:Bart Taub Abstract: Abstract I model a large shareholder who can affect firm fundamentals. I demonstrate that the large shareholder amplifies the component of his private information that is unforecastable by uninformed traders and thus alters the fundamental value of the firm to facilitate his trading profits: he obfuscates. I then construct a continuous time dynamic version of the model using Fourier transform methods. In the dynamic model, the large shareholder does not just simply amplify the unforecastable part of the fundamental: he also alters its stochastic structure. The model thus marries market microstructure with real resource allocation. There are two consequences: (i) the large shareholder induces the fundamental value of the firm to more closely mimic the noise traders, and (ii) market liquidity is reduced. PubDate: 2018-08-23 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0334-3
Authors:Adriana Gama; Isabelle Maret; Virginie Masson Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the standard symmetric two-period R&D duopoly model, but with a deterministic one-way spillover structure. Though the two firms are ex-ante identical, one obtains a unique pair of asymmetric equilibria of R&D investments, leading to inter-firm heterogeneity in the industry, in R&D roles as well as in unit costs. We analyze the impact of a change in the spillover parameter and R&D costs on firms’ levels of R&D and profits. We find that higher spillovers need not lead to lower R&D investments for both firms. In addition, equilibrium profits may improve due to the presence of spillovers, and it may be advantageous to be the R&D imitator rather than the R&D innovator. PubDate: 2018-08-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0329-0
Authors:Dilip B. Madan; Wim Schoutens Abstract: Abstract Prudent upper and lower valuations from the literature on arbitrage free two price economies provide risk characteristics driving required returns. The risk characteristics assess the risk of price fluctuations. The difference between the upper and lower prudent valuations can be viewed as a capital charge. In addition the lower valuation assesses the down side tail risk. The required risk characteristics may be estimated on a daily basis from past data and we elaborate on how to perform such upper and lower valuations using distorted expectations. Details are provided for calculations using just the raw data, or by first fitting a probability distribution, or in terms of estimated arrival rates for jumps. The valuations are obtained with a dynamic calibration of a parametric distortion on the S&P 500 index options market. Results for required returns based on capital charges and down side risk compensation show an improvement when risk is represented by the arrival rates of jump sizes. For risk assessments based on arrival rates, capital charges constitute between 67 and 85% of the required return. The rest being a charge for downside risk exposures. After the introduction of risk characteristics into required returns there is little scope for covariation measures like asset betas. Different proposed constructions for required returns deliver differences in the value of an invested dollar and associated differences in asset rankings across time. PubDate: 2018-06-11 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0328-1
Authors:Josselin Garnier; Knut Sølna Abstract: Abstract Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatilities associated with financial time series exhibit short-range correlations. This entails that the volatility process is very rough and its autocorrelation exhibits sharp decay at the origin. Another classic stylistic feature often assumed for the volatility is that it is mean reverting. In this paper it is shown that the price impact of a rapidly mean reverting rough volatility model coincides with that associated with fast mean reverting Markov stochastic volatility models. This reconciles the empirical observation of rough volatility paths with the good fit of the implied volatility surface to models of fast mean reverting Markov volatilities. Moreover, the result conforms with recent numerical results regarding rough stochastic volatility models. It extends the scope of models for which the asymptotic results of fast mean reverting Markov volatilities are valid. The paper concludes with a general discussion of fractional volatility asymptotics and their interrelation. The regimes discussed there include fast and slow volatility factors with strong or small volatility fluctuations and with the limits not commuting in general. The notion of a characteristic term structure exponent is introduced, this exponent governs the implied volatility term structure in the various asymptotic regimes. PubDate: 2018-06-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0325-4
Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we analyse, modify, and apply one of the most widely used measures of systemic risk, SRISK, developed by Brownlees and Engle (in Rev Financ Stud 30:48–79, 2016). The measure is defined as the expected capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a prolonged market decline. We argue that segregated funds, also known as separate accounts in the US, should be excluded from actuarial liabilities when SRISK is calculated for insurance companies. We also demonstrate the importance of careful analysis of accounting standards when specifying the prudential capital ratio used in SRISK methodology. Based on the proposed adjustments to SRISK, we assess the systemic risk of the Canadian banking and insurance industries. It is shown that in its current implementation, the SRISK methodology substantially overestimates the systemic risk of Canadian insurance companies. PubDate: 2018-06-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0326-3
Authors:Gregory Gagnon Abstract: Abstract Stochastic control of exchange rates when a central bank employs anti-inflationary stochastic differential equation (SDE) monetary policy is the key topic of our paper. Despite low money growth SDE policy means exchange rates invariably violate the central bank’s targets. Monetary policy also incorporates interventions reflected by sudden money supply jumps that moderate deviations from targets. Controlling exchange rates involves minimizing target deviation and intervention costs. Restrictions on these costs ensure intervention vanishes under the optimal control, implying the central bank engineers freely floating exchange rates instead of managed floating or fixed exchange rates. Econometric evidence suggests discretionary interventions may be ineffective or generate excess volatility and speculation in currency markets. Our result demonstrates mathematically that such collateral damage discourages intervention. PubDate: 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0327-2
Authors:Salvador Cruz Rambaud; Isabel González Fernández; Viviana Ventre Abstract: In the original publication, the second author’s name was incorrect. The correct name should be Isabel González Fernández. PubDate: 2018-05-23 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0322-7
Authors:João Tovar Jalles Abstract: Abstract This paper provides, for the first time, a detailed picture of the composition of public debt by type of holder (foreign vs. domestic) and type of holding institution for a set of 7 Euro Area countries between 1991Q1 and 2015Q4. In addition, it empirically inspects the determinants of nonresident public debt ownership, accounting for both domestic and external factors and paying special attention to the global financial crisis period. Using a previously unexplored dataset and by means of panel and country-specific time series regressions, we find that improved fiscal positions, systemic stress and financial volatility, a strong business cycle position, all increase share of public debt held by non-residents. Also, a higher share of monetary and financial institutions cross-border holdings of sovereign debt issued by the other Euro Area countries was correlated with higher share of public debt held by non-residents. Finally, results are robust to outliers inspection and other sensitivity checks. PubDate: 2018-03-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0321-8
Authors:Ryosuke Shimizu Abstract: Abstract This study extends Hirano and Yanagawa (Rev Econ Stud 84(1):406–443, 2017) to an asymmetric two-country model and examines bubbles effects on each country’s long-run economic growth rate. This study also provides numerical examples with respect to the relationship between each country’s growth rate and their financial frictions in the balanced growth equilibria with bubbles and without bubbles. It shows that foreign bubbles have positive and negative effects on both countries’ growth rates, and which effect dominates depends on the level of financial development in both countries. In this study, the positive effect of bubbles tends to dominate when the total level of financial frictions in both countries is relatively low. When the total effect of bubbles on the growth rate is positive, the burst of foreign bubbles leads to a decrease in the growth rate in both countries. This implies that there is a positive correlation between foreign bubbles and the domestic as well as the foreign country’s growth rate. PubDate: 2018-03-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0320-9
Authors:M. Ryan Haley Abstract: Abstract This paper adapts two recent developments from the bibliometric literature to the problem of assessing the return performance of a financial asset. The result is a quantity-of-quality metric, which is both nonparametric and moment-free. As such, it offers a nonstandard perspective on the informational patterns in asset returns, and accordingly can complement traditional moment-based asset evaluation methods. The proposed approach is simple to apply, and while moment-free, captures intuitively important aspects of asset performance such as location, upside potential, downside risk, and volatility. It can also be expressed as a reward-to-risk ratio, which serves as a counterpart to the Sharpe ratio. Empirical and simulation results suggest that, relative to the Sharpe ratio, the proposed approach prefers assets with moderately higher means and standard deviations, and more favorable skewness. PubDate: 2018-02-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0319-2
Authors:Salvador Cruz Rambaud; Isabel Fernández González; Viviana Ventre Abstract: Abstract The aim of this paper is to obtain the family of the so-called generalized Weibull discount functions, introduced by Takeuchi (Game Econ Behav 71:456–478, 2011), by deforming the q-exponential discount function by means of the Stevens’ “power” law. The obtained discount functions exhibit different degrees of inconsistency and so they can be classified according to the value of their characteristic deforming parameters. Moreover, we extend the construction of the generalized Weibull discount function starting from any discount function instead of the q-exponential discounting. In any case, the value of the parameter \(\theta \) of these new discount functions is extended from (0, 1] to the union of the intervals \((-\,\infty ,0) \cup (0,+\,\infty )\) . PubDate: 2018-02-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0318-3
Authors:Robert Jarrow Abstract: Abstract This paper derives an equilibrium asset pricing model with endogenous liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic quantity impact on the price from trading, where the size of the impact depends on trade size. Under a strong set of assumptions, we prove that a unique equilibrium liquidity cost process and a unique equilibrium price process exists for our economy. We characterize the market’s state price density, which enables the derivation of the risk-return relation for the stock’s expected return including liquidity risk. We derive a generalized intertemporal CAPM and consumption CAPM for these markets. In contrast to the traditional models without liquidity risk, there is an additional systematic liquidity risk factor which is related to the stock return’s covariation with the market’s stochastic liquidity cost. Traditional transaction costs are a special case of our formulation. PubDate: 2017-12-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0316-x
Authors:Nikolai Dokuchaev Abstract: Abstract This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a numéraire. An equivalent martingale measure is not unique for this market, and there are non-replicable claims. Some rational choices of the equivalent martingale measures are suggested and discussed, including implied measures calculated from bond prices constructed as a risk-free investment with deterministic payoff at the terminal time. This leads to possibility to infer a implied market price of risk process from observed historical bond prices. PubDate: 2017-12-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0315-y
Authors:Dilip B. Madan Abstract: Abstract Classical Arrow Debreu equilibria employ budget feasibility to require individuals to ensure excess supplies to be nonnegative in value using the single equilibrium price system for valuation purposes. Yet by the selection of state contingent prices, they seek excess supplies that are nonnegative in each component, and not just the value. A financial equilibrium, on the other hand, defines acceptable economic risks as excess supplies that are nonnegative in value for a number of prespecified valuation price systems. The collection of prespecified valuation price systems may be referred to as features for which clearing is sought. The number of features will generally be less than the number of states. It is then shown that by also defining budget feasibility nonlinearly one may construct a financial equilibrium with fewer securities than there are features to be cleared. PubDate: 2017-11-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0312-1
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