Abstract: Abstract We investigate how deposit insurance affects the structure of the financial system in a general equilibrium setting in which a government insurer guarantees deposits at commercial banks, but not at shadow banks. With deposit-based or risky-asset-based insurance premia, price distortions induced by subsidized deposit insurance benefit shadow banks, by allowing these banks to trade to their advantage. Insured commercial banks and uninsured shadow banks coexist under subsidized deposit insurance. Capital requirements on commercial banks make shadow banking more attractive. The asset price distortion is eliminated when the aggregate subsidy to unsuccessful commercial banks equals the aggregate penalty to successful banks. PubDate: 2020-01-22
Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we estimate the probability of a financial institution breaching the Common Equity Tier 1 capital under Basel III rules. We do so by applying the Merton model, where balance sheet data and market data are used to match the probability of default implied by the model with the probability of default implied by market quotations for credit default swaps. We provide an empirical analysis for several banks classified by the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions, evaluating how the probability of breaching the Common Equity Tier 1 Capital evolved from 2005 to 2015. We find that higher Common Equity Tier 1 Capital ratios do not necessarily imply lower probabilities of breaching capital requirements and vice versa. We also focus on the asset volatility calibrated according to our model and we find that it appears to be a good proxy for the risk-weighted asset density. PubDate: 2020-01-16
Abstract: Abstract This paper evaluates empirically the effect of financial crises on several types of pollutant emissions. We focus on a sample of 55 developing countries from 1980 until 2012 and rely on the local projection method to plot impulse response functions. Our results show that financial crises lead to a fall in CO2 emissions. Moreover, systemic crises increase consumption-based emissions, which suggests that this type of crises encourages the consumption of goods with an inferior environmental quality. A country hit by a sovereign debt crisis, experiences an increase in emissions stemming from energy related activities or industrial processes. During bad times, financial crises positively affect both methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Finally, in countries under fiscal retrenchment, a financial crisis leads to a negative response of CO2 emissions. PubDate: 2020-01-04
Abstract: Abstract We study the problem of dynamically trading multiple futures contracts with different underlying assets. To capture the joint dynamics of stochastic bases for all traded futures, we propose a new model involving a multi-dimensional scaled Brownian bridge that is stopped before price convergence. This leads to the analysis of the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations, whose solutions are derived in semi-explicit form. The resulting optimal trading strategy is a long-short policy that accounts for whether the futures are in contango or backwardation. Our model also allows us to quantify and compare the values of trading in the futures markets when the underlying assets are traded or not. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal strategies and the effects of model parameters. PubDate: 2020-01-01
Abstract: Abstract In an arbitrage-free securities market, all state-contingent claims and the stochastic discount factors can be approximated appropriately by index options with a semi-nonparametric method. These index options are constructed by efficient algorithms and uniform approximation error under these efficient algorithms are derived. This paper suggests a method to examine state-contingent claims and stochastic discount factors using index options in financial market regardless the market is complete or not. PubDate: 2019-12-01
Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we present the testing of four hypotheses on two streams of observations that are driven by Lévy processes. This is applicable for sequential decision making on the state of two-sensor systems. In one case, each sensor receives or does not receive a signal obstructed by noise. In another, each sensor receives data driven by Lévy processes with large or small jumps. In either case, these give rise to four possibilities. Infinitesimal generators are presented and analyzed. Bounds for infinitesimal generators in terms of super-solutions and sub-solutions are computed. An application of this procedure for stochastic model is also presented in relation to the financial market. PubDate: 2019-11-22
Abstract: Abstract We compute the optimal investment and consumption strategies for an individual who wishes to maximize her expected discounted exponential utility of lifetime consumption, while imposing a constraint on the expected time her wealth spends below a poverty threshold b. First, we compute the optimal strategies for the corresponding (unconstrained) problem with a running penalty for time that wealth spends below b. This penalty acts as a Lagrange multiplier for our original constrained problem, so we recover the optimal strategies for our original problem from the recast problem. We show that (1) if the current wealth is greater than b, then the optimal investment strategy becomes more conservative as the poverty constraint becomes sharper; and (2) if the current wealth is less than b, then the optimal investment strategy is either independent of the poverty constraint or becomes more aggressive as the poverty constraint becomes sharper, depending on the value b. We also show that the optimal rate of consumption (weakly) decreases as the poverty constraint becomes sharper. PubDate: 2019-11-08
Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates whether short-term momentum and long-term reversal may emerge from the wealth reallocation process taking place in speculative markets. We assume that there are two classes of investors who trade long-lived assets by holding constantly rebalanced portfolios based on their beliefs. Provided beliefs, and thus portfolios, are sufficiently diversified, all investors survive in the long-run and, due to waves of mispricing, the resulting equilibrium returns exhibit long-term reversal. If, moreover, asset dividends are positively correlated, investors’ profitable trades become positively correlated too, thus generating short-term momentum in equilibrium returns. We use the model to replicate the performance of the Winners and Losers portfolios highlighted by the empirical literature and to provide insights on how to improve upon them. Finally, we show that dividend positive autocorrelation is positively related to momentum and negatively related to reversal while diversity of beliefs is positively related to both momentum and reversal. PubDate: 2019-10-08
Abstract: Abstract We employ a simple numerical scheme to compute optimal portfolios and utilities of informed and uninformed investors in a mispriced Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) Lévy market under information asymmetry using instantaneous centralized moments of returns (ICMR). We also investigate the impact on investors’ demand for stocks and indices at different levels of asymmetric information, mispricing, investment horizon, jump intensity, and volatility. Our simulations not only confirm that uninformed expected demand falls as information asymmetry increases but also offer strong evidence that informed expected demand behaves in a similar manner. In particular, expected demand of informed investors falls whenever information asymmetry exceeds 50%. The investor that demands more of the risky asset maintains that position over the entire investment horizon at each level of mispricing and information asymmetry. The absolute difference in expected demand between the uninformed and informed investors increases with the investment horizon, but decreases with the level of information asymmetry. PubDate: 2019-09-01
Abstract: Abstract In this paper we propose a method for pricing Asian options in market models with the risky asset dynamics driven by a Hawkes process with exponential kernel. For these processes the couple \( (\lambda (t), X(t) ) \) is affine, this property allows to extend the general methodology introduced by Hubalek et al. (Quant Finance 17:873–888, 2017) for Geometric Asian option pricing to jump-diffusion models with stochastic jump intensity. Although the system of ordinary differential equations providing the characteristic function of the related affine process cannot be solved in closed form, a COS-type algorithm allows to obtain the relevant quantities needed for options valuation. We describe, by means of graphical illustrations, the dependence of Asian options prices by the main parameters of the driving Hawkes process. Finally, by using Geometric Asian options values as control variates, we show that Arithmetic Asian options prices can be computed in a fast and efficient way by a standard Monte Carlo method. PubDate: 2019-08-28
Abstract: Abstract We consider a dynamic model of interconnected banks. New banks can emerge, and existing banks can default, creating a birth-and-death setup. Microscopically, banks evolve as independent geometric Brownian motions. Systemic effects are captured through default contagion: as one bank defaults, reserves of other banks are reduced by a random proportion. After examining the long-term stability of this system, we investigate mean-field limits as the number of banks tends to infinity. Our main results concern the measure-valued scaling limit which is governed by a McKean–Vlasov jump-diffusion. The default impact creates a mean-field drift, while the births and defaults introduce jump terms tied to the current distribution of the process. Individual dynamics in the limit is described by the propagation of chaos phenomenon. In certain cases, we explicitly characterize the limiting average reserves. PubDate: 2019-08-20
Abstract: Abstract Rational expectations equilibrium seeks a proper treatment of behavior under private information by assuming that the information revealed by prices is taken into account by consumers in their decisions. Typically agents are supposed to maximize a conditional expectation of state-dependent utility function and to consume the same bundles in indistiguishable states [see Allen (Econometrica 49(5):1173–1199, 1981), Radner (Econometrica 47(3):655–678, 1979)]. A problem with this model is that a rational expectations equilibrium may not exist even under very restrictive assumptions, may not be efficient, may not be incentive compatible, and may not be implementable as a perfect Bayesian equilibrium (Glycopantis et al. in Econ Theory 26(4):765–791, 2005). We introduce a notion of rational expectations equilibrium with two main features: agents may consume different bundles in indistinguishable states and ambiguity is allowed in individuals’ preferences. We show that such an equilibrium exists universally and not only generically without freezing a particular preferences representation. Moreover, if we particularize the preferences to a specific form of the maxmin expected utility model introduced in Gilboa and Schmeidler (J Math Econ 18(2):141–153, 1989), then we are able to prove efficiency and incentive compatibility. These properties do not hold for the traditional (Bayesian) Rational Expectation Equilibrium. PubDate: 2019-07-20
Abstract: Abstract This paper presents the first continuous-time model to feature a flexible dependence structure among jump intensity, stock variance, and stock returns. In particular, it addresses a gap in the financial portfolio optimization literature concerning the non-trivial correlation between stock return variance and the intensity of price jumps. The model permits closed-form representations for the optimal strategy and value functions in an expected utility theory setting. It also produces analytical expressions for the value function associated with relevant suboptimal strategies. Such an analytical setting allows for the first wealth-equivalent utility loss (WEL) analysis of the pitfalls of ignoring the aforementioned dependence. The model and results can be easily extended to the pair intensity-covariance in multi-assets. The WEL analysis is carried out for three different suboptimal classes: tailor-made incomplete markets, misspecifications in the parameters of the model, and time-independent (myopic) strategies. For the numerical section, we focus on the correlation between jump intensity and stock variance, which is assumed to be either zero or one in the existing literature. We demonstrate that simplistic assumptions like perfect dependence or independence could lead to wealth-equivalent losses of up to 61%. Similarly, a failure to hedge these variances and intensity drivers could cause losses of up to 95% (in particular, up to 60% due to the factors driving the dependence). PubDate: 2019-07-02
Abstract: Abstract We study the problem of dynamically trading a futures contract and its underlying asset under a stochastic basis model. The basis evolution is modeled by a stopped scaled Brownian bridge to account for non-convergence of the basis at maturity. The optimal trading strategies are determined from a utility maximization problem under hyperbolic absolute risk aversion risk preferences. By analyzing the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, we derive the exact conditions under which the equation admits a solution and solve the utility maximization explicitly. A series of numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal strategies and examine the effects of model parameters. PubDate: 2019-06-10
Abstract: Abstract I develop an analytical general-equilibrium model to explain economic sources of business-cycle pattern of aggregate stock market returns. With concave production functions and capital accumulation, a technology shock has a pro-cyclical direct effect and a counter-cyclical indirect effect on expected returns. The indirect effect, reflecting the “feedback” effect of consumers’ behavior on asset returns, dominates the direct effect and causes counter-cyclical variations of expected returns. I show that the conditional mean, volatility, and Sharpe ratios of asset returns all vary counter-cyclically and they are persistent and predictable, and that stock market behavior has forecasting power for real economic activity. PubDate: 2019-06-03
Abstract: Abstract We show how the impact of a government bailout in the form of liquidity assistance on the ex ante effort of a representative bank depends on the volatility of its investment. The bank’s investment delivers a cashflow that follows a geometric Brownian motion and the government guarantees the bank’s liabilities. To counter the bank’s expectations of a bailout, the government may choose a tighter liquidity policy when the bank’s effort is not observable. This tighter liquidity induces more prudent ex ante behavior by the bank, but it may have the opposite effect when investment volatility is high. This novel effect arises because the bank could be discouraged to be prudent precisely because the chances of receiving liquidity assistance are low. PubDate: 2019-05-15
Authors:Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos Abstract: Abstract I incorporate household debt and delinquency decisions into a standard model of lifecycle consumption-saving-investment. I also impose a punishment to the delinquent behavior by assuming that the percentage of endowment available is a linear function of the default decision. Theoretically such additional investor decisions are playing a relevant role in terms of completing markets. In practice, it enables me to derive an extended system of Euler equations which does not alter consumption-based fundamental asset pricing equation. It imposes the pricing kernel to account jointly for two additional first-order conditions. I perform empirical exercises aiming to price equity premium in United States from 1987:1 to 2018:1. I find significant elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption of the representative agent ranging from 0.24 to 0.55 and risk aversion from 1.82 to 3.51. This approach is also useful to account for the cross-section behavior of domestic assets. I can also use this framework to draw bounds for the household decisions on loan and delinquency and to propose a new rule of thumb relating preferences parameters and credit variables. PubDate: 2019-02-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-019-00344-1
Authors:Mark Whitmeyer Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the strategic interaction of n portfolio managers with relative performance concerns. We characterize the unique constant Nash equilibrium and derive some compelling results. Surprisingly, in equilibrium, more risk tolerant players do not generally take riskier positions than less risk tolerant players. We derive sufficient conditions under which this relation does hold. We also examine the effects of adding new players to the game on the equilibrium, and look at the equilibrium in the limiting case as the number of players goes to infinity. We show that for a symmetric population, the equilibrium strategy of the players converges pointwise to some limiting equilibrium policy. PubDate: 2019-02-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-019-00343-2
Authors:Berardino Palazzo Abstract: Abstract This paper explores the effects of a firm’s cash flow systematic risk on its optimal capital structure. In a model where firms are allowed to borrow resources from a competitive lending sector, those with cash flows more correlated with the aggregate economy (i.e., firms with riskier assets in place) choose a lower leverage given their higher expected financing costs. On the other hand, less risky firms, having lower expected financing costs, optimally choose to issue more debt to exploit a tax advantage. The model predicts that cash flow systematic risk is negatively correlated with leverage and corporate bond yields. PubDate: 2019-01-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-00342-9
Authors:Donatien Hainaut; Franck Moraux Abstract: Abstract This study proposes a new Markov switching process with clustering effects. In this approach, a hidden Markov chain with a finite number of states modulates the parameters of a self-excited jump process combined to a geometric Brownian motion. Each regime corresponds to a particular economic cycle determining the expected return, the diffusion coefficient and the long-run frequency of clustered jumps. We study first the theoretical properties of this process and we propose a sequential Monte-Carlo method to filter the hidden state variables. We next develop a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo procedure to fit the model to the S&P 500. We find that self-exciting jumps occur mainly during economic recession and nearly disappear in periods of economic growth. Finally, we analyse the impact of such a jump clustering on implied volatilities of European options. PubDate: 2018-09-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10436-018-0340-5
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