Authors:Olivier Le Courtois Abstract: This article provides new results on the tempered multistable approach. After a preliminary section recalling the main definitions, we show the correspondence between a series representation and a characteristic function representation for asymmetrical field-based tempered multistable processes and for asymmetrical independent increments tempered multistable processes. We also show that both processes are semimartingales, which is a convenient property in finance. Next, we study the structure of autocorrelations that is conveyed by this approach. Finally, we provide an illustration showing the term structures of Value-at-Risk that can be obtained with this model. PubDate: 2018-04-11 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-018-9240-y

Authors:Trin Sittisawad; Pariyada Sukcharoensin Abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the success factors of financial derivatives markets in Asia. The selected countries include Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong. The success factors of financial derivatives markets in Asia are examined by employing the panel regression. The empirical results show that size, volatility, and liquidity of spot market are significant factors for the success of financial derivatives markets in sample countries. Further, tick size, contract size, and option-type also enhance trading volumes while product age is not statistically significant. The results from this study provide important implications in developing the financial derivatives market which plays an important role in the capital market. PubDate: 2018-02-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-018-9239-4

Authors:Masafumi Nakano; Akihiko Takahashi; Soichiro Takahashi; Takami Tokioka Abstract: This paper examines an impact of Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s outright purchase on the Japanese government bond (JGB) yield curve. Particularly, we develop a simple state space model, which incorporates new factors regarding the BOJ’s announcement for its outright purchase and the current market outstanding with standard level and spread factors. Based on the model with a filtering method, we also implement an empirical analysis with time series of the BOJ’s announcement records during 2014/10/22–2017/8/3 in the quantitative–qualitative easing period to estimate the sensitivities of interest rates against the changes in the market expectation for the net supply with each sector of JGB. We expect the current work provides a basis for considering quantitative effects on the term structure by BOJ’s policy changes such as termination or significant reduction of the BOJ’s outright purchase. For instance, our scenario analysis shows substantial increase in the 30 year yield with widening of 20–30 year spread. PubDate: 2018-01-24 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-018-9238-5

Authors:Yan Zhang Abstract: In this paper, while focusing on the impact that the global financial crisis had on the stock markets of China, Japan, and the United States, the stock-price volatilities and linkage between these three countries are analyzed. In addition, the relationships between macroeconomic variables (real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables) and stock price volatility in each country are investigated. The estimation results of the EGARCH model revealed that although China’s stock price volatility was far greater than those of Japanese and US stock prices, China was less affected by the global financial crisis in 2007 than Japan and the United States. For China, stock price volatility was greater in the early 1990s, shortly after the stock market had been established, than in 2007 when the global financial crisis occurred. Furthermore, it has been revealed that the linkage of Chinese, Japanese, and US stock prices has increased since the global financial crisis. Moreover, Granger causality testing revealed China’s real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables do not affect China’s stock price volatility. PubDate: 2018-01-23 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-018-9237-6

Authors:Yuji Yamada; James A. Primbs Abstract: Model predictive control (MPC) is a flexible yet tractable technique in control engineering that recently has gained much attention in the area of finance, particularly for its application to portfolio optimization. In this paper, we extend the MPC with linear feedback setting in Yamada and Primbs (in: Proceedings of the IEEE conference on decision and control, pp 5705–5710, 2012) by incorporating the following two important and practical issues: The first issue is gross exposure (GE), which is the total value of long and short positions invested in risky assets (or stocks) as a proportion of the wealth possessed by a hedge fund. This quantity measures the leverage of a hedge fund, and the fund manager may limit the amount of leverage by imposing an upper bound, i.e., a GE constraint. The second issue is related to transaction costs, where the MPC algorithm may require frequent trades of many stocks leading to large transaction costs in practice. Here we assume that the transaction cost is proportional to the change in the amount of money (i.e., the change of absolute values of long or short positions) invested in each stock. We formulate the MPC strategy based on a conditional mean-variance problem which we show reduces to a convex quadratic problem, even with gross exposure and proportional transaction cost constraints. Based on numerical experiments using Japanese stock data, we demonstrate that the incorporation of the transaction cost constraint improves the empirical performance of the wealth in terms of Sharpe ratio, which may be improved further by adding the GE constraint. PubDate: 2017-12-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9236-z

Authors:Chune Young Chung; Yunjae Lee; Doojin Ryu Abstract: We analyze a trading dataset from the Korean stock market, a representative and leading emerging equity market, to study the impact of domestic institutional trades on information asymmetry. Using the bid–ask spread as a proxy for the adverse selection cost imposed by information asymmetry, we empirically examine the relationship between domestic institutional trades and their corresponding bid–ask spreads. We find that bid–ask spreads tend to increase when the trading volume of domestic institutional investors is high, suggesting that such investors tend to aggravate information asymmetry as informed traders in the Korean stock market. PubDate: 2017-11-24 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9235-0

Authors:Maria do Rosário Grossinho; Yaser Kord Faghan; Daniel Ševčovič Abstract: We investigate qualitative and quantitative behavior of a solution of the mathematical model for pricing American style of perpetual put options. We assume the option price is a solution to the stationary generalized Black–Scholes equation in which the volatility function may depend on the second derivative of the option price itself. We prove existence and uniqueness of a solution to the free boundary problem. We derive a single implicit equation for the free boundary position and the closed form formula for the option price. It is a generalization of the well-known explicit closed form solution derived by Merton for the case of a constant volatility. We also present results of numerical computations of the free boundary position, option price and their dependence on model parameters. PubDate: 2017-11-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9234-1

Authors:Ken Miyajima; Jorge A. Chan-Lau; Weimin Miao; Jongsoon Shin Abstract: Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bottom-Up Default Analysis (BuDA) approach, which allows projecting corporate probabilities of default (PDs) under different macroeconomic scenarios. In particular, a protracted recession and the ensuing currency depreciation could erode buffers on corporate balance sheets, pushing up the probabilities of default (PDs) in the corporate sector to the high levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis. While this is a low-probability scenario, the results suggest the need to closely monitor vulnerabilities and strengthen contingency plans. PubDate: 2017-10-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9233-2

Authors:Ebenezer Asem; Vishaal Baulkaran; Rossitsa Yalamova; Xiaofei Zhang Abstract: We examine the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the cross-market efficiency of the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets. Our results show a sharp decline in the cross-market efficiency during the financial crisis. We investigate whether this is due to lower internal market efficiency or higher market co-movement. The results show no evidence that the internal market efficiency dropped in Hong Kong or Shanghai during the crisis. In contrast, we document a strong increase in the market co-movement during the crisis. These results suggest that the decline in cross-market efficiency during the financial crisis is due to increased market co-movement and not a decline in internal market efficiency. PubDate: 2017-10-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9232-3

Authors:Takashi Isogai Abstract: In this paper, the dynamic correlation of Japanese stock returns is estimated by using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC–GARCH) model to study their correlation dynamics empirically. It is difficult to fit the model to the whole stock market jointly at the same time; therefore, a network-based clustering is applied for the dimensionality reduction of the sample data. Two types correlation structures are estimated: homogeneous groups of stocks in a balanced size are created by clustering to observe within-group correlation, while a single portfolio that comprises group portfolio returns is also created to observe between-group correlation. The estimation result reveals dynamic changes in correlation intensity represented by the largest eigenvalue of the estimated correlation matrix. A higher level of correlation intensity and volatility are observed during the crisis periods, namely after both the Lehman collapse and the Great East Japan Earthquake, for the between- and within-group correlations. It is also confirmed that the pattern of correlation change is significantly different between the groups. The proposed method is useful for monitoring dynamic correlation of asset returns efficiently in a large scale of portfolio. PubDate: 2017-09-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9230-5

Authors:Hiroaki Hata; Jun Sekine Abstract: Risk-sensitive asset management problems, both those with a finite horizon and those with an infinite horizon, are studied in a financial market model that has a Wishart autoregressive-type jump-diffusion factor, which is a positive-definite symmetric matrix-valued process. The model describes the stochasticity of the market covariance structure, the interest rates, and the risk-premium of the risky assets. We obtain explicit representations of the solutions to the problems. PubDate: 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9231-4

Authors:Mohammadreza Janvisloo Alizadeh; Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi Abstract: Following the implementation of Basel III criteria concerning the supervision of banks capital, this paper attempts to examine the competence of Merton-type probability of default as an indicator for measuring optimal capital in commercial banks of five Southeast Asian emerging economies. The estimated default risk changes are consistent with the changes in market value of banks’ asset in countries studied. Using a forward-looking approach, the banks required capital has been measured to reach a hypothetical level of probability of default as an accepted level by policy makers. Empirical results show that the banks had to increase their current capital in order to reduce the risk of bankruptcy in crisis times. The findings of this study refer evidently to the efficiency of Merton-type default risk to estimate the adequate capital and to use in micro and macro-prudential studies or stress tests on commercial banks. PubDate: 2017-08-04 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9229-y

Authors:Takayuki Morimoto; Yoshinori Kawasaki Abstract: This study employs big data and text data mining techniques to forecast financial market volatility. We incorporate financial information from online news sources into time series volatility models. We categorize a topic for each news article using time stamps and analyze the chronological evolution of the topic in the set of articles using a dynamic topic model. After calculating a topic score, we develop time series models that incorporate the score to estimate and forecast realized volatility. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that the proposed models can contribute to improving forecasting accuracy. PubDate: 2017-07-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9228-z

Authors:Ying Wang; Hoi Ying Wong Abstract: Stochastic volatility (SV) models are theoretically more attractive than the GARCH type of models as it allows additional randomness. The classical SV models deduce a continuous probability distribution for volatility so that it does not admit a computable likelihood function. The estimation requires the use of Bayesian approach. A recent approach considers discrete stochastic autoregressive volatility models for a bounded and tractable likelihood function. Hence, a maximum likelihood estimation can be achieved. This paper proposes a general approach to link SV models under the physical probability measure, both continuous and discrete types, to their processes under a martingale measure. Doing so enables us to deduce the close-form expression for the VIX forecast for the both SV models and GARCH type models. We then carry out an empirical study to compare the performances of the continuous and discrete SV models using GARCH models as benchmark models. PubDate: 2017-06-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9227-0

Authors:Juri Hinz; Jeremy Yee Abstract: This paper examines discrete-time optimal control problems arising in the context of optimal asset liquidation using recently published algorithms and code. We address these questions within a realistic framework, assuming that the order placement decisions must be adapted dynamically. Furthermore, we show how a duality-based technique can be used to assess the quality of our numerical solution. PubDate: 2017-05-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9226-1

Authors:Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh; Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah; Shahid Mahmood Abstract: We study the effect of mood-proxy variables on index returns and volatility in six South Asian markets. Our mood-proxy variables include six weather (temperature, humidity, cloud cover, air pressure, visibility, and wind speed), three weather indicator variables (fog, thunder storm and rain or drizzle) and two biorhythmic variables (SAD and lunar phases). We adopt a robust approach and attempt to select the best parsimonious econometric model for each market. Our findings suggest that mood-proxy variables have some convincing influences in South Asian capital markets. In some instances, these variables are influencing returns while in other instances they are influencing volatility. PubDate: 2017-05-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9225-2

Authors:Naoto Kunitomo; Daisuke Kurisu Abstract: Several new statistical procedures for high-frequency financial data analysis have been developed to estimate risk quantities and test the presence of jumps in the underlying continuous-time financial processes. Although the role of micro-market noise is important in high-frequency financial data, there are some basic questions on the effects of presence of noise and jump in the underlying stochastic processes. When there can be jumps and (micro-market) noise at the same time, it is not obvious whether the existing statistical methods are reliable for applications in actual data analysis. We investigate the misspecification effects of jumps and noise on some basic statistics and the testing procedures for jumps proposed by Ait-Sahalia and Jacod (Ann Stat 37–1:184–222 2009; 38–5:3093–3123 2010) as an illustration. We find that their first test (testing the presence of jumps as a null-hypothesis) is asymptotically robust in the small-noise asymptotic sense against possible misspecifications while their second test (testing no-jumps as a null-hypothesis) is quite sensitive to the presence of noise. PubDate: 2017-03-04 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9223-4

Authors:Adrian Prayoga; Nicolas Privault Abstract: We propose an approximation scheme for the pricing of yield options in the CIR model using conditional moment matching based on the gamma and lognormal distributions. This method is fast and simple to implement, and it shows a high degree of accuracy without being subject to the numerical instabilities that can be encountered with more sophisticated approaches. PubDate: 2017-02-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-017-9222-5

Authors:Yuji Yamada Abstract: At the heart of optimal hedging with additive models in Yamada (Recent advances in financial engineering: proceedings of the KIER-TMU international workshop on financial engineering, World Scientific, pp 225–245, 2010; Proceedings of the 2011 American control conference, pp 3856–3861, 2011; Asia-Pac Financ Mark 19(2):149–179, 2012) is to replicate the payoff of European basket options using separate options as close as possible. In this paper, we extend their technique for the case of path-dependent barrier options, where the mean square error of the payoffs between the basket barrier option and the sum of options on the individual assets is minimized over any smooth payoff functions. To this end, we propose to represent the underlying assets using the Brownian bride decomposition and show that computations involving conditional expectations of basket barrier options boil down to those of unconditional expectations. This procedure enables us to provide an algorithm to compute the necessary and sufficient condition for the optimal hedging problem based on the Monte Carlo method. Then, we consider to apply our methodology to the Black–Cox type first passage time structural model, where a defaultable company possesses/runs multiple assets/projects and the default may occur the first time the asset value hits a certain lower threshold before the maturity. We formulate the equity value separation problem using additive models, in which individual equity values are introduced so that their sum approximates the total equity value as close as possible. It is also shown that any portion of total equity value may be assigned as an initial value of each individual equity when using the optimal smooth functions. Finally, we examine the contributions of individual equity values to default or survival by applying a certain normalization for conditional expectations via numerical experiments to illustrate our proposed methodology. PubDate: 2017-01-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-016-9221-y

Authors:Pious Asiimwe; Charles Wilson Mahera; Olivier Menoukeu-Pamen Abstract: In this paper, we study option pricing under a regime-switching exponential Lévy model. Assuming that the coefficients are time-dependent and modulated by a finite state Markov chain, we generalise the work in Momeya and Morales (Method Comput Appl Probab, 2014, doi:10.1007/s11009-014-9399-2), and Siu and Yang (Acta Mathe Appl Sin 2:369–388, 2009), that is, we use a pricing method based on the Esscher transform conditional on the information available on the Markov chain. We also carry out numerical analysis, to show the impact of the risk induced by the underlying Markov chain on the price of the option. PubDate: 2016-09-03 DOI: 10.1007/s10690-016-9219-5