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Publisher: Oxford University Press   (Total: 396 journals)

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Showing 1 - 200 of 396 Journals sorted alphabetically
ACS Symposium Series     Full-text available via subscription   (SJR: 0.189, CiteScore: 0)
Acta Biochimica et Biophysica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.79, CiteScore: 2)
Adaptation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.143, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Nutrition     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 48, SJR: 2.196, CiteScore: 5)
Aesthetic Surgery J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 1.434, CiteScore: 1)
African Affairs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 64, SJR: 1.869, CiteScore: 2)
Age and Ageing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 91, SJR: 1.989, CiteScore: 4)
Alcohol and Alcoholism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 1.376, CiteScore: 3)
American Entomologist     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
American Historical Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 155, SJR: 0.467, CiteScore: 1)
American J. of Agricultural Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 41, SJR: 2.113, CiteScore: 3)
American J. of Clinical Nutrition     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 153, SJR: 3.438, CiteScore: 6)
American J. of Epidemiology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 180, SJR: 2.713, CiteScore: 3)
American J. of Hypertension     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 1.322, CiteScore: 3)
American J. of Jurisprudence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.281, CiteScore: 1)
American J. of Legal History     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.116, CiteScore: 0)
American Law and Economics Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 1.053, CiteScore: 1)
American Literary History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.391, CiteScore: 0)
Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21, SJR: 1.038, CiteScore: 1)
Animal Frontiers     Hybrid Journal  
Annals of Behavioral Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 1.423, CiteScore: 3)
Annals of Botany     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 36, SJR: 1.721, CiteScore: 4)
Annals of Oncology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45, SJR: 5.599, CiteScore: 9)
Annals of the Entomological Society of America     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.722, CiteScore: 1)
Annals of Work Exposures and Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32, SJR: 0.728, CiteScore: 2)
AoB Plants     Open Access   (Followers: 4, SJR: 1.28, CiteScore: 3)
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.858, CiteScore: 2)
Applied Linguistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 56, SJR: 2.987, CiteScore: 3)
Applied Mathematics Research eXpress     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 1.241, CiteScore: 1)
Arbitration Intl.     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 20)
Arbitration Law Reports and Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30, SJR: 0.731, CiteScore: 2)
Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Arthropod Management Tests     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Astronomy & Geophysics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43, SJR: 0.146, CiteScore: 0)
Behavioral Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 52, SJR: 1.871, CiteScore: 3)
Bioinformatics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 307, SJR: 6.14, CiteScore: 8)
Biology Methods and Protocols     Hybrid Journal  
Biology of Reproduction     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 1.446, CiteScore: 3)
Biometrika     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 3.485, CiteScore: 2)
BioScience     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29, SJR: 2.754, CiteScore: 4)
Bioscience Horizons : The National Undergraduate Research J.     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.146, CiteScore: 0)
Biostatistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 1.553, CiteScore: 2)
BJA : British J. of Anaesthesia     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 167, SJR: 2.115, CiteScore: 3)
BJA Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 64)
Brain     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 68, SJR: 5.858, CiteScore: 7)
Briefings in Bioinformatics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 49, SJR: 2.505, CiteScore: 5)
Briefings in Functional Genomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 2.15, CiteScore: 3)
British J. for the Philosophy of Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35, SJR: 2.161, CiteScore: 2)
British J. of Aesthetics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26, SJR: 0.508, CiteScore: 1)
British J. of Criminology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 588, SJR: 1.828, CiteScore: 3)
British J. of Social Work     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 88, SJR: 1.019, CiteScore: 2)
British Medical Bulletin     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 1.355, CiteScore: 3)
British Yearbook of Intl. Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Bulletin of the London Mathematical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 1.376, CiteScore: 1)
Cambridge J. of Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 63, SJR: 0.764, CiteScore: 2)
Cambridge J. of Regions, Economy and Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 2.438, CiteScore: 4)
Cambridge Quarterly     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.104, CiteScore: 0)
Capital Markets Law J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 0)
Carcinogenesis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 2.135, CiteScore: 5)
Cardiovascular Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 3.002, CiteScore: 5)
Cerebral Cortex     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45, SJR: 3.892, CiteScore: 6)
CESifo Economic Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.483, CiteScore: 1)
Chemical Senses     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 1.42, CiteScore: 3)
Children and Schools     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.246, CiteScore: 0)
Chinese J. of Comparative Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.412, CiteScore: 0)
Chinese J. of Intl. Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23, SJR: 0.329, CiteScore: 0)
Chinese J. of Intl. Politics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 1.392, CiteScore: 2)
Christian Bioethics: Non-Ecumenical Studies in Medical Morality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.183, CiteScore: 0)
Classical Receptions J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 0.123, CiteScore: 0)
Clean Energy     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Clinical Infectious Diseases     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 65, SJR: 5.051, CiteScore: 5)
Clinical Kidney J.     Open Access   (Followers: 3, SJR: 1.163, CiteScore: 2)
Communication Theory     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23, SJR: 2.424, CiteScore: 3)
Communication, Culture & Critique     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 1)
Community Development J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 0.268, CiteScore: 1)
Computer J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.319, CiteScore: 1)
Conservation Physiology     Open Access   (Followers: 2, SJR: 1.818, CiteScore: 3)
Contemporary Women's Writing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.121, CiteScore: 0)
Contributions to Political Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.906, CiteScore: 1)
Critical Values     Full-text available via subscription  
Current Developments in Nutrition     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Current Legal Problems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Current Zoology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2, SJR: 1.164, CiteScore: 2)
Database : The J. of Biological Databases and Curation     Open Access   (Followers: 8, SJR: 1.791, CiteScore: 3)
Digital Scholarship in the Humanities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.259, CiteScore: 1)
Diplomatic History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.45, CiteScore: 1)
DNA Research     Open Access   (Followers: 5, SJR: 2.866, CiteScore: 6)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Early Music     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.139, CiteScore: 0)
Economic Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 40, SJR: 3.584, CiteScore: 3)
ELT J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 0.942, CiteScore: 1)
English Historical Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 54, SJR: 0.612, CiteScore: 1)
English: J. of the English Association     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.1, CiteScore: 0)
Environmental Entomology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.818, CiteScore: 2)
Environmental Epigenetics     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Environmental History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 0.408, CiteScore: 1)
EP-Europace     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 2.748, CiteScore: 4)
Epidemiologic Reviews     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 4.505, CiteScore: 8)
ESHRE Monographs     Hybrid Journal  
Essays in Criticism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.113, CiteScore: 0)
European Heart J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 57, SJR: 9.315, CiteScore: 9)
European Heart J. - Cardiovascular Imaging     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 3.625, CiteScore: 3)
European Heart J. - Cardiovascular Pharmacotherapy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
European Heart J. - Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes     Hybrid Journal  
European Heart J. : Case Reports     Open Access  
European Heart J. Supplements     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.223, CiteScore: 0)
European J. of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 1.681, CiteScore: 2)
European J. of Intl. Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 188, SJR: 0.694, CiteScore: 1)
European J. of Orthodontics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 1.279, CiteScore: 2)
European J. of Public Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 1.36, CiteScore: 2)
European Review of Agricultural Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 1.172, CiteScore: 2)
European Review of Economic History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29, SJR: 0.702, CiteScore: 1)
European Sociological Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 41, SJR: 2.728, CiteScore: 3)
Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Family Practice     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 1.018, CiteScore: 2)
Fems Microbiology Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 1.492, CiteScore: 4)
Fems Microbiology Letters     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.79, CiteScore: 2)
Fems Microbiology Reviews     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30, SJR: 7.063, CiteScore: 13)
Fems Yeast Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 1.308, CiteScore: 3)
Food Quality and Safety     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Foreign Policy Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 1.425, CiteScore: 1)
Forest Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.89, CiteScore: 2)
Forestry: An Intl. J. of Forest Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 1.133, CiteScore: 3)
Forum for Modern Language Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.104, CiteScore: 0)
French History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33, SJR: 0.118, CiteScore: 0)
French Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.148, CiteScore: 0)
French Studies Bulletin     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.152, CiteScore: 0)
Gastroenterology Report     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Genome Biology and Evolution     Open Access   (Followers: 13, SJR: 2.578, CiteScore: 4)
Geophysical J. Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35, SJR: 1.506, CiteScore: 3)
German History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23, SJR: 0.161, CiteScore: 0)
GigaScience     Open Access   (Followers: 4, SJR: 5.022, CiteScore: 7)
Global Summitry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Glycobiology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 1.493, CiteScore: 3)
Health and Social Work     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 56, SJR: 0.388, CiteScore: 1)
Health Education Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.854, CiteScore: 2)
Health Policy and Planning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 1.512, CiteScore: 2)
Health Promotion Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22, SJR: 0.812, CiteScore: 2)
History Workshop J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31, SJR: 1.278, CiteScore: 1)
Holocaust and Genocide Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.105, CiteScore: 0)
Human Communication Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 2.146, CiteScore: 3)
Human Molecular Genetics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 3.555, CiteScore: 5)
Human Reproduction     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 71, SJR: 2.643, CiteScore: 5)
Human Reproduction Open     Open Access  
Human Reproduction Update     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19, SJR: 5.317, CiteScore: 10)
Human Rights Law Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 57, SJR: 0.756, CiteScore: 1)
ICES J. of Marine Science: J. du Conseil     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 52, SJR: 1.591, CiteScore: 3)
ICSID Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
ILAR J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 1.732, CiteScore: 4)
IMA J. of Applied Mathematics     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.679, CiteScore: 1)
IMA J. of Management Mathematics     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.538, CiteScore: 1)
IMA J. of Mathematical Control and Information     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.496, CiteScore: 1)
IMA J. of Numerical Analysis - advance access     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 1.987, CiteScore: 2)
Industrial and Corporate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 1.792, CiteScore: 2)
Industrial Law J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 36, SJR: 0.249, CiteScore: 1)
Inflammatory Bowel Diseases     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44, SJR: 2.511, CiteScore: 4)
Information and Inference     Free  
Integrative and Comparative Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 1.319, CiteScore: 2)
Interacting with Computers     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.292, CiteScore: 1)
Interactive CardioVascular and Thoracic Surgery     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.762, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. Affairs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 61, SJR: 1.505, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. Data Privacy Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25)
Intl. Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.851, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. Immunology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 2.167, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. for Quality in Health Care     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 37, SJR: 1.348, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Constitutional Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 63, SJR: 0.601, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Epidemiology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 234, SJR: 3.969, CiteScore: 5)
Intl. J. of Law and Information Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.202, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Law, Policy and the Family     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.223, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Lexicography     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.285, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Low-Carbon Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.403, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Neuropsychopharmacology     Open Access   (Followers: 3, SJR: 1.808, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. of Public Opinion Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 1.545, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Refugee Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35, SJR: 0.389, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Transitional Justice     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.724, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. Mathematics Research Notices     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 2.168, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. Political Sociology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 39, SJR: 1.465, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. Relations of the Asia-Pacific     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23, SJR: 0.401, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. Studies Perspectives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.983, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. Studies Quarterly     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 46, SJR: 2.581, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. Studies Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 1.201, CiteScore: 1)
ISLE: Interdisciplinary Studies in Literature and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.15, CiteScore: 0)
ITNOW     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.103, CiteScore: 0)
J. of African Economies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.533, CiteScore: 1)
J. of American History     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 46, SJR: 0.297, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Analytical Toxicology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 1.065, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 2.419, CiteScore: 4)
J. of Antitrust Enforcement     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
J. of Applied Poultry Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.585, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Biochemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 40, SJR: 1.226, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Burn Care & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.768, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Chromatographic Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.36, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Church and State     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.139, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Communication     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 54, SJR: 4.411, CiteScore: 5)
J. of Competition Law and Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35, SJR: 0.33, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Complex Networks     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 1.05, CiteScore: 4)
J. of Computer-Mediated Communication     Open Access   (Followers: 28, SJR: 2.961, CiteScore: 6)
J. of Conflict and Security Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.402, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Consumer Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 46, SJR: 5.856, CiteScore: 5)

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Journal Cover
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System
Number of Followers: 4  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 2059-6987
Published by Oxford University Press Homepage  [396 journals]
  • Statistical analysis of coverage error in simple global temperature
           estimators

    • Authors: Cowtan K; Jacobs P, Thorne P, et al.
      Abstract: BackgroundGlobal mean surface temperature is widely used in the climate literature as a measure of the impact of human activity on the climate system. While the concept of a spatial average is simple, the estimation of that average from spatially incomplete data is not. Correlation between nearby map grid cells means that missing data cannot simply be ignored. Estimators that (often implicitly) assume uncorrelated observations can be biased when naively applied to the observed data, and in particular, the commonly used area weighted average is a biased estimator under these circumstances. Some surface temperature products use different forms of infilling or imputation to estimate temperatures for regions distant from the nearest observation, however the impacts of such methods on estimation of the global mean are not necessarily obvious or themselves unbiased. This issue was addressed in the 1970s by Ruvim Kagan, however his work has not been widely adopted, possibly due to its complexity and dependence on subjective choices in estimating the dependence between geographically proximate observations.ObjectivesThe aim of this work is to present a simple estimator for global mean surface temperature from spatially incomplete data which retains many of the benefits of the work of Kagan, while being fully specified by two equations and a single parameter. The main purpose of the simplified estimator is to better explain to users of temperature data the problems associated with estimating an unbiased global mean from spatially incomplete data, however the estimator may also be useful for problems with specific requirements for reproducibility and performance.MethodsThe new estimator is based on generalized least squares, and uses the correlation matrix of the observations to weight each observation in accordance with the independent information it contributes. It can be implemented in fewer than 20 lines of computer code. The performance of the estimator is evaluated for different levels of observational coverage using reanalysis data with artificial noise.ResultsFor recent decades the generalized least squares estimator mitigates most of the error associated with the use of a naive area weighted average. The improvement arises from the fact that coverage bias in the historical temperature record does not arise from an absolute shortage of observations (at least for recent decades), but rather from spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of observations, with some regions being relatively undersampled and others oversampled. The estimator addresses this problem by reducing the weight of the oversampled regions, in contrast to some existing global temperature datasets which extrapolate temperatures into the unobserved regions. The results are almost identical to the use of kriging (Gaussian process interpolation) to impute missing data to global coverage, followed by an area weighted average of the resulting field. However, the new formulation allows direct diagnosis of the contribution of individual observations and sources of error.ConclusionsMore sophisticated solutions to the problem of missing data in global temperature estimation already exist. However the simple estimator presented here, and the error analysis that it enables, demonstrate why such solutions are necessary. The 2013 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change discussed a slowdown in warming for the period 1998-2012, quoting the trend in the HadCRUT4 historical temperature dataset from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, along with other records. Use of the new estimator for global mean surface temperature would have reduced the apparent slowdown in warming of the early 21st century by one third in the spatially incomplete HadCRUT4 product.
      PubDate: Fri, 20 Jul 2018 00:00:00 GMT
      DOI: 10.1093/climsys/dzy003
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • Chaotic and non-chaotic response to quasiperiodic forcing: limits to
           predictability of ice ages paced by Milankovitch forcing

    • Authors: Ashwin P; David Camp C, von der Heydt A.
      Abstract: It is well known that periodic forcing of a nonlinear system, even of a 2D autonomous system, can produce chaotic responses with sensitive dependence on initial conditions if the forcing induces sufficient stretching and folding of the phase space. Quasiperiodic forcing can similarly produce chaotic responses, where the transition to chaos on changing a parameter can bring the system into regions of strange non-chaotic behaviour. Although it is generally acknowledged that the timings of Pleistocene ice ages are at least partly due to Milankovitch forcing (which may be approximated as quasiperiodic, with energy concentrated near a small number of frequencies), the precise details of what can be inferred about the timings of glaciations and deglaciations from the forcing are still unclear. In this article, we perform a quantitative comparison of the response of several low-order nonlinear conceptual models for these ice ages to various types of quasiperiodic forcing. By computing largest Lyapunov exponents and mean periods, we demonstrate that many models can have a chaotic response to quasiperiodic forcing for a range of forcing amplitudes, even though some of the simplest conceptual models do not. These results suggest that pacing of ice ages to forcing may have only limited determinism.
      PubDate: Tue, 08 May 2018 00:00:00 GMT
      DOI: 10.1093/climsys/dzy002
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • Data-adaptive harmonic decomposition and prediction of Arctic sea ice
           extent

    • Authors: Kondrashov D; Chekroun M, Ghil M.
      Abstract: Decline in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is an area of active scientific research with profound socio-economic implications. Of particular interest are reliable methods for SIE forecasting on subseasonal time scales, in particular from early summer into fall, when sea ice coverage in the Arctic reaches its minimum. Here, we apply the recent data-adaptive harmonic (DAH) technique of Chekroun and Kondrashov, (2017), Chaos, 27 for the description, modeling and prediction of the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE, 2006–2016) data set. The DAH decomposition of MASIE identifies narrowband, spatio-temporal data-adaptive modes over four key Arctic regions. The time evolution of the DAH coefficients of these modes can be modelled and predicted by using a set of coupled Stuart–Landau stochastic differential equations that capture the modes’ frequencies and amplitude modulation in time. Retrospective forecasts show that our resulting multilayer Stuart–Landau model (MSLM) is quite skilful in predicting September SIE compared to year-to-year persistence; moreover, the DAH–MSLM approach provided accurate real-time prediction that was highly competitive for the 2016–2017 Sea Ice Outlook.
      PubDate: Tue, 27 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT
      DOI: 10.1093/climsys/dzy001
      Issue No: Vol. 3, No. 1 (2018)
       
 
 
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