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Publisher: Inderscience Publishers   (Total: 424 journals)

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Showing 1 - 200 of 424 Journals sorted alphabetically
African J. of Accounting, Auditing and Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
African J. of Economic and Sustainable Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Afro-Asian J. of Finance and Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.205, h-index: 3)
American J. of Finance and Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Asian J. of Management Science and Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Atoms for Peace: an Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.103, h-index: 1)
Electronic Government, an Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.185, h-index: 23)
EuroMed J. of Management     Hybrid Journal  
European J. of Cross-Cultural Competence and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
European J. of Industrial Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.987, h-index: 16)
European J. of Intl. Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.258, h-index: 10)
Global Business and Economics Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.13, h-index: 7)
Interdisciplinary Environmental Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Abrasive Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.207, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Accounting and Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Intl. J. of Accounting, Auditing and Performance Evaluation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 0.143, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Ad Hoc and Ubiquitous Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.245, h-index: 13)
Intl. J. of Adaptive and Innovative Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Additive and Subtractive Materials Manufacturing     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Advanced Intelligence Paradigms     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.39, h-index: 5)
Intl. J. of Advanced Mechatronic Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.212, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Advanced Media and Communication     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22, SJR: 0.103, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Advanced Operations Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.24, h-index: 4)
Intl. J. of Aerodynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Intl. J. of Agent-Oriented Software Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Agile and Extreme Software Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Agile Systems and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.212, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.125, h-index: 17)
Intl. J. of Alternative Propulsion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.103, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Applied Cryptography     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.401, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Applied Decision Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.455, h-index: 11)
Intl. J. of Applied Management Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.369, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Applied Nonlinear Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Applied Pattern Recognition     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Applied Systemic Studies     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.138, h-index: 5)
Intl. J. of Arab Culture, Management and Sustainable Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Intl. J. of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Intl. J. of Arts and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.114, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Auditing Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Automation and Control     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.297, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Automation and Logistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Automotive Composites     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Automotive Technology and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.356, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of Autonomic Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Autonomous and Adaptive Communications Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.125, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Aviation Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Banking, Accounting and Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.153, h-index: 5)
Intl. J. of Behavioural Accounting and Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Intl. J. of Behavioural and Healthcare Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Intl. J. of Bibliometrics in Business and Management     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Big Data Intelligence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Intl. J. of Bio-Inspired Computation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.77, h-index: 25)
Intl. J. of Bioinformatics Research and Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.231, h-index: 13)
Intl. J. of Biomechatronics and Biomedical Robotics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Biomedical Engineering and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.213, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Biomedical Nanoscience and Nanotechnology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Intl. J. of Biometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.244, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Biotechnology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of Bonds and Derivatives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Business and Emerging Markets     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Business and Globalisation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.21, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Business and Systems Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.205, h-index: 11)
Intl. J. of Business Competition and Growth     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Intl. J. of Business Continuity and Risk Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Intl. J. of Business Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Business Excellence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.333, h-index: 12)
Intl. J. of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Intl. J. of Business Governance and Ethics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.222, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Business Information Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.264, h-index: 18)
Intl. J. of Business Innovation and Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.273, h-index: 13)
Intl. J. of Business Intelligence and Data Mining     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29, SJR: 0.196, h-index: 13)
Intl. J. of Business Intelligence and Systems Engineering     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Business Performance and Supply Chain Modelling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Intl. J. of Business Performance Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.194, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of Business Process Integration and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 0.172, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of Chinese Culture and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Circuits and Architecture Design     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Intl. J. of Cloud Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Intl. J. of Cognitive Biometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Cognitive Performance Support     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Collaborative Engineering     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Collaborative Enterprise     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Collaborative Intelligence     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Communication Networks and Distributed Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.262, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Competitiveness     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Complexity in Applied Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Complexity in Leadership and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Intl. J. of Computational Biology and Drug Design     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.272, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Computational Complexity and Intelligent Algorithms     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Computational Intelligence in Bioinformatics and Systems Biology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Intl. J. of Computational Intelligence Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Computational Materials Science and Surface Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.159, h-index: 6)
Intl. J. of Computational Science and Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.34, h-index: 12)
Intl. J. of Computational Systems Engineering     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Computational Vision and Robotics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.123, h-index: 4)
Intl. J. of Computer Aided Engineering and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.112, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Computer Applications in Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.309, h-index: 20)
Intl. J. of Computers in Healthcare     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Computing Science and Mathematics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.385, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Continuing Engineering Education and Life-Long Learning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.217, h-index: 16)
Intl. J. of Convergence Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Corporate Governance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Corporate Strategy and Social Responsibility     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Creative Computing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Critical Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Critical Computer-Based Systems     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.22, h-index: 6)
Intl. J. of Critical Infrastructures     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.277, h-index: 18)
Intl. J. of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.381, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Data Mining and Bioinformatics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.289, h-index: 13)
Intl. J. of Data Mining, Modelling and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.152, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Data Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Intl. J. of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Intl. J. of Decision Support Systems     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Design Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Intl. J. of Digital Culture and Electronic Tourism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Intl. J. of Diplomacy and Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Dynamical Systems and Differential Equations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.173, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Earthquake and Impact Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.228, h-index: 5)
Intl. J. of Economics and Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Economics and Business Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.102, h-index: 1)
Intl. J. of Education Economics and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.193, h-index: 2)
Intl. J. of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.234, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Electronic Banking     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Electronic Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Electronic Customer Relationship Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.192, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Electronic Democracy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Electronic Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.2, h-index: 1)
Intl. J. of Electronic Governance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.383, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Electronic Healthcare     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.195, h-index: 18)
Intl. J. of Electronic Marketing and Retailing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.148, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Electronic Security and Digital Forensics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.221, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Embedded Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.252, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Emergency Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.492, h-index: 17)
Intl. J. of Energy Technology and Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.131, h-index: 11)
Intl. J. of Engineering Management and Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Engineering Systems Modelling and Simulation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.192, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Enterprise Network Management     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.118, h-index: 6)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurial Venturing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.213, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.238, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurship and Small Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23, SJR: 0.294, h-index: 16)
Intl. J. of Environment and Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.147, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Environment and Pollution     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.241, h-index: 35)
Intl. J. of Environment and Sustainable Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.142, h-index: 14)
Intl. J. of Environment and Waste Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.142, h-index: 11)
Intl. J. of Environment, Workplace and Employment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Environmental Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Intl. J. of Environmental Policy and Decision Making     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Intl. J. of Environmental Technology and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.13, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of Exergy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.667, h-index: 20)
Intl. J. of Experimental and Computational Biomechanics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Intl. J. of Experimental Design and Process Optimisation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Export Marketing     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Financial Engineering and Risk Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Financial Innovation in Banking     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Financial Markets and Derivatives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Financial Services Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Food Safety, Nutrition and Public Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Intl. J. of Forensic Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Forensic Engineering and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Foresight and Innovation Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.219, h-index: 14)
Intl. J. of Functional Informatics and Personalised Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.101, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Fuzzy Computation and Modelling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Gender Studies in Developing Societies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Global Energy Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.18, h-index: 19)
Intl. J. of Global Environmental Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.149, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of Global Warming     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.431, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Globalisation and Small Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.293, h-index: 9)
Intl. J. of Granular Computing, Rough Sets and Intelligent Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Green Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.148, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Grid and Utility Computing     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.235, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Happiness and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Healthcare Technology and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.155, h-index: 13)
Intl. J. of Heavy Vehicle Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.154, h-index: 15)
Intl. J. of High Performance Computing and Networking     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.362, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of High Performance Systems Architecture     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.301, h-index: 7)
Intl. J. of Higher Education and Sustainability     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Hospitality and Event Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Human Factors and Ergonomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Intl. J. of Human Factors Modelling and Simulation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Intl. J. of Human Resources Development and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23, SJR: 0.148, h-index: 11)
Intl. J. of Human Rights and Constitutional Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Intl. J. of Hydrology Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.181, h-index: 3)
Intl. J. of Image Mining     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Immunological Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Indian Culture and Business Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Industrial and Systems Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.433, h-index: 19)
Intl. J. of Industrial Electronics and Drives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Information and Coding Theory     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Information and Communication Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.144, h-index: 5)
Intl. J. of Information and Computer Security     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19, SJR: 0.134, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Information and Decision Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.323, h-index: 10)
Intl. J. of Information and Operations Management Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Intl. J. of Information Privacy, Security and Integrity     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Intl. J. of Information Quality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.103, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Information Systems and Change Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.112, h-index: 8)
Intl. J. of Information Systems and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Information Technology and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 11)
Intl. J. of Information Technology, Communications and Convergence     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)

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Journal Cover International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics
  [5 followers]  Follow
    
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1757-1170 - ISSN (Online) 1757-1189
   Published by Inderscience Publishers Homepage  [424 journals]
  • Hyper-parameterised dynamic regressions for nowcasting Spanish GDP
           growth in real time
    • Authors: David De Antonio Liedo, Elena Fernández Muñoz
      Pages: 5 - 42
      Abstract: This paper analyses the nowcasting performance of hyper-parameterised dynamic regression models with a large number of variables in log levels, and compares it with state-of-the-art methods for nowcasting. We deal with the 'curse of dimensionality' by exploiting prior information originating in the Bayesian VAR literature. The real-time forecast simulation conducted over the most severe phase of the Great Recession shows that our method yields reliable GDP predictions almost one and a half months before the official figures are published. The usefulness of our approach is confirmed in a genuine out-of-sample evaluation over the European sovereign debt crisis and subsequent recovery.
      Keywords: Bayesian shrinkage; VAR; value-at-risk; co-movements; mixed estimation; prior elicitation; dynamic factor models; nowcasting plugin; JDemetra+; hyper-parameterised dynamic regressions; Spain; GDP growth; gross domestic product; re
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 5 - 42
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080667
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
  • A daily indicator of economic growth for the euro area
    • Authors: Valentina Aprigliano, Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino, Gianluigi Mazzi, Fabrizio Venditti
      Pages: 43 - 63
      Abstract: In this paper, we study alternative methods to construct a daily indicator of growth for the euro area. We aim for an indicator that (i) provides reliable predictions, (ii) can be easily updated at the daily frequency, (iii) gives interpretable signals, and (iv) it is linear. Using a large panel of daily and monthly data for the euro area we explore the performance of two classes of models: bridge and U-MIDAS models, and different forecast combination strategies. Forecasts obtained from U-MIDAS models, combined with the inverse MSE weights, best satisfy the required criteria.
      Keywords: nowcasting; mixed-frequency data; daily indicators; economic growth; euro area; forecasting; bridge models; U-MIDAS models; modelling; eurozone
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 43 - 63
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080636
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
  • Nowcasting US inflation using a MIDAS augmented Phillips curve
    • Authors: Valentina Aprigliano, Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino, Gianluigi Mazzi, Fabrizio Venditti
      Pages: 64 - 77
      Abstract: We present a mixed-frequency model for real-time monitoring of US inflation. Our approach relies on a mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) augmented Phillips curve with daily oil prices for nowcasting inflation. In line with the literature we find that performances of inflation nowcasting models rely on two key elements: the inclusion of high-frequency oil prices and a rolling-window framework. Our approach succeeds in providing a policy-oriented tool for monitoring inflation in real-time.
      Keywords: inflation nowcasting; MIDAS; mixed-data sampling; oil prices; US inflation; USA; United States; Phillips curve; inflation monitoring; rolling window; real-time monitoring
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 64 - 77
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080649
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
  • Forecasting euro area recessions by combining financial information
    • Authors: Christophe Bellégo, Laurent Ferrara
      Pages: 78 - 94
      Abstract: The last two macroeconomic recessions in the euro area in 2008-2009 and 2011-2013 have pointed out the impact of financial markets on economic activity. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the ability of a set of financial variables to forecast recessions in the euro area by using binary response models associated with information combination. For various forecast horizons, we provide a readable and leading signal of recession by combining information according to two combining schemes. First we average recession probabilities and second we linearly combine variables through a factor model in order to estimate an innovative Factor-Augmented probit model. Out-of-sample results over the periods 2007-2009 and 2011-2013 show that financial variables would have been helpful in giving accurate and timely recession signals in real-time.
      Keywords: macroeconomic forecasting; recession forecasts; financial markets; euro area recessions; financial information; financial variables
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 78 - 94
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080609
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
  • The nature and propagation of shocks in the euro area: a comparative
           SVAR analysis
    • Authors: Alberto Coco, Andrea Silvestrini
      Pages: 95 - 114
      Abstract: This paper investigates the nature and the propagation of macroeconomic shocks hitting the euro area, in order to draw indications on the functioning and viability of the monetary union after 15 years from its inception. Structural VAR models identified with sign restrictions for a large set of euro-area countries allow comparing the properties of three independent shocks over different sample periods, before and after the start of the EMU. Results show that, up to the third quarter of 2008, shocks on average have increased their co-movement and decreased their size and persistence in eurozone countries, compared with two control countries inside the European Union but outside the euro area (UK and Sweden). Conversely, following the outbreak of the global financial crisis, shocks have become on average more harmful for the euro area, as testified by their larger size and persistence relative to those in the two control countries.
      Keywords: OCA; optimum currency area; EMU; Economic and Monetary Union; SVAR; structural VAR; sign restrictions; symmetry; size; adjustment speed; co-movement; shock propagation; macroeconomic shocks; euro area; eurozone countries; UK; United Kingdom; Swed
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 95 - 114
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080615
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
  • An augmented Taylor rule for the Federal Reserve's response to asset
           prices
    • Authors: Christian M. Hafner, Alexandre R. Lauwers
      Pages: 115 - 151
      Abstract: This paper investigates whether and how the US Federal Reserve has reacted to asset price developments over the period 1979-2011. We examine both the opportunities and limitations of incorporating two asset prices, equity and real estate, into a standard forward-looking and inertial interest rate rule, based on ex-post realised monthly data and taking into account the inherent endogeneity. While the role of house prices is found to be ambiguous due to weak identification, stock prices do represent an important aspect of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy design. Our findings suggest that monetary policymakers did not target stock prices systematically, but rather reacted on few occasions during the full sample period, when misalignments in stock prices were relatively large.
      Keywords: monetary policy; central banks; stock prices; house prices; endogeneity; Taylor rule; Federal Reserve; asset prices; interest rate rules; equity prices
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 115 - 151
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080635
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
  • Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to
           forecast market returns?
    • Authors: Anatoly A. Peresetsky, Ruslan I. Yakubov
      Pages: 152 - 169
      Abstract: In this paper, a Kalman filter-type model is used to extract a global stochastic trend from discrete non-synchronous data on daily stock market index returns from different markets. The model allows for the autocorrelation in the global stochastic trend, which means that its increments are predictable. It does not necessarily mean the predictability of market returns, since the global trend is unobservable. The performance of the model for the forecast of market returns is explored for three markets: Japan, UK, USA.
      Keywords: financial market integration; stock markets; state space model; Kalman filter; non-synchronous data; market returns forecasting; autocorrelation; global stochastic trends; Japan; UK; United Kingdom; USA; United States
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 152 - 169
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080611
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
  • The back side of banking in Russia: forecasting bank failures with
           negative capital
    • Authors: Alexander Karminsky, Alexander Kostrov
      Pages: 170 - 209
      Abstract: Since 2013, we have observed an increasing number of failed Russian banks with negative capital and falsified financial reporting. We use previously unavailable data for the period 2010-1H2015 to develop a logit model predicting the probability of bank failure with negative capital. In order to do so, we suggest solutions for the class imbalance and variable selection problems. The models chosen are confirmed to be robust and have longer forecasting horizons compared to previous research. Also, we implement a novel probability-based approach to the out-of-sample forecasting evaluation which confirms a good fit of the selected models to data. The model predicts bank failures in three quarters and finds 33% of actual failures among 5% of banks with the highest predicted probability to fail (out-of-sample). In addition, we make available previously unpublished banking data for Russia.
      Keywords: default probability; fraudulent financial reporting; logit model; Central Bank of Russia; financial mismanagement; bank creditors; fraud; banking industry; bank failure forecasting; bank failures; negative capital; failed banks; class imbalance; vari
      Citation: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2017) pp. 170 - 209
      PubDate: 2016-12-01T23:20:50-05:00
      DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.080663
      Issue No: Vol. 7, No. 1/2 (2016)
       
 
 
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