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  • Reinventing product-service systems: the case of Singapore
    • Pages: 332 - 361
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 21, Issue 3, Page 332-361, May 2019.
      Purpose This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D investment to support the manufacturing industry’s growth in the country and the region. Design/methodology/approach Using horizon scanning, scenario analysis and expert opinion, nine capabilities are identified as core areas to be developed to support the country’s future growth of product-service systems. Findings The results of a Delphi survey involving 30 industry and academic thought leaders recommend priorities of these capabilities. This paper concludes with a discussion of the study implications for theory, research and practice in the domain of servitisation and product-service systems. Research limitations/implications The foresight study presented here on the future of servitisation in Singapore demonstrates one of the first fully fledged applications of foresight in constructing a coherent vision of future product-service system markets. In this study, the authors applied systemic foresight methodology (SFM) comprising the first six phases: initiation (scoping), intelligence (scanning), imagination (scenarios), integration (priorities), interpretation (strategies) and implementation (action).For future research, an ideal step would be to proceed with the final phase of the SFM, impact, to develop indicators for servitisation and to monitor and evaluate the transition process. Practical implications Manufacturing and services are no longer distinct concepts with a clear divide. Manufacturing firms not only become more service dependent but also produce and provide services for their consumers. This transformation towards servitisation implies fundamental re-organisation of the production and management practices. Furthermore, through new business models, new and loyal customers will be gained, which will in turn bring additional income, while making the companies less prone to economic and business fluctuations. Social implications The results of this study have practical implications for policymakers of public and private sectors that are interested in playing a key role in future product-service system innovation. These have implications for developing the human and intellectual capital that are required for supporting the future innovation. Institutes of higher learning and vocational institutes should also consider incorporating new curricula and modules to build the capabilities for knowledge creation and transfer. Originality/value The findings of the present study on strategic growth areas and relevant critical capabilities provide new directions for research in the field of servitisation. Among the nine capabilities identified, the top three were advanced customer intelligence capability, socio-physical service quality, traceability and maintainability and integrated strategic decision-making. From the results, it is apparent that advanced customer intelligence capability is both an area of importance to Singapore and the world.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-02-25T01:36:59Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2018-0107
  • A status quo analysis of disaster risk reduction policy and legislation in
    • Pages: 362 - 376
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 21, Issue 3, Page 362-376, May 2019.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the status quo of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy and legislation in Cameroon. Design/methodology/approach Using a qualitative method, this paper examines historical data from sectoral administrative reports, plans, declarations, commitments and speeches, texts and peer-reviewed journals on disaster and risk management in Cameroon for the period 1967-2017. Empirical data from ten selected government sectors were used to analyze the status quo, together with quantitative data collected by using four instruments (i.e. HFA Priority 1 & 4, USAID Toolkit, GOAL Resilience Score and the Checklist on Law and DRR). Findings Findings show that Cameroon largely still practices disaster response through the Department of Civil Protection. Transparency and accountability are the sine qua non of the state, but the lack thereof causes improper implementation of DRR within development institutions. DRR is seen as an ad hoc activity, with the result that there is not effective institutional capacity for implementation. The need to develop a new national DRR framework is evident. Originality/value Analyzing the status quo of DRR in Cameroon could assist with the review and reevaluation of a new DRR framework within the Cameroonian territory.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-04-03T09:59:37Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-06-2018-0060
  • Knowledge intensive business services: innovation and occupations
    • Pages: 377 - 408
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 21, Issue 3, Page 377-408, May 2019.
      Purpose The literature on knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) shows them to be major innovators; this is confirmed with recent data, which the authors use to examine the various types of innovation that KIBS undertake. The implications for employment and work in highly innovative industries are important topics for analysis, not least because we are in a period where dramatic claims are being made as to the implications of new technologies for professional occupations. Thus, this paper aims to address major debates and conclusions concerning innovation patterns in KIBS and the evolving structures of professional and other work in these industries. Design/methodology/approach This essay combines literature review with presentation and discussion of statistics that throw light on the patterns of innovation that characterise KIBS. The authors also consider data that concern trends in the organisation of work in these industries; while the focus is mainly on KIBS firms, they also pay some attention to KIBS-like work in other sectors. Even though KIBS are distinctive industries in modern economies, these analyses can be related to more general studies of, and forecasts about, changes in work organisation. Findings The authors show that innovation patterns and employment structures vary substantially across different types of KIBS, with the distinction between technological, professional and creative KIBS proving to be useful for capturing these differences. The authors are also able to demonstrate important long- and medium-term trends in the structure and activities of the KIBS industries. In particular, data clearly demonstrate the increasing share of professional as against associate and clerical workers in most KIBS. Evidence also suggests that polarisation trends across the economy are mirrored, and in some cases amplified, in KIBS. The future prospects for employment in KIBS, and for professional work in particular, are seen to involve multiple factors, which together may bring about substantial change. Research limitations/implications The study involves literature review and industry-level statistical analysis. Future work would benefit from firm-level analysis and validation and explication of results via consultation with practitioners and users of KIBS. Some puzzling variations across countries and sectors will need to be explored with national and sectoral experts. Practical implications Research into KIBS activities, and their future, should make more use of the extensive statistics on employment and other structural features of the industries that have become available in recent years. KIBS firms and practitioners will need to take account of the forces for change that are liable to restructure their activities. Originality/value The literature on KIBS has been concentrated on a rather narrow range of issues, while analysis of the current contributions and future development of the industries requires attention to a wider range of topics. This paper suggests how these topics may be investigated and their implications explored and presents results of enquiries along these lines.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-03-21T02:37:53Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-11-2018-0091
  • The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic
    • Pages: 409 - 418
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 21, Issue 3, Page 409-418, May 2019.
      Purpose In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-03-13T11:16:50Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-11-2018-0099
  • Sport hunting and tourism in the twenty-second century: humans as the
           ultimate trophy
    • Pages: 419 - 442
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 21, Issue 3, Page 419-442, May 2019.
      Purpose This paper aims to address the potential of hunting humans as sport tourism activity in the twenty-second century. The paper explores past and current trends related to sport hunting, animal extinction, human violence and the normalisation of violence via fictional media. This paper paints a provocative picture of society with the aim of encouraging dialogue across the wider community regarding the challenges facing society in relation to practices related to sport hunting and tourism. Design/methodology/approach This paper takes a scenario narrative approach in presenting potential discussion on the future of sport hunting as a tourism activity. The importance of narrative writing as a method to research is its ability in telling a story to the reader. By embracing diverse philosophical methods, this research draws on past and current trends via secondary data sources to justify the future scenario narrative. Findings This paper presents interesting insights into the future of sport hunting and its potential relationship to tourism. However, considering the following quote, “Yet another uncertainty is that predictions themselves can alter the future – which, of course, is part of the motivation behind futurism” (Larson, 2002, p. 5), this paper concludes with a sobering message, if previous research as well as the ideas presented here are to become a future reality, one where humans hunt each other for sport, are we content to allow this to happen' Or do we want to encourage debate to ensure we create better futures' Originality/value This paper offers original and novel research within the sport-tourism literature by taking a futures perspective and applying a scenario narrative approach. The paper offers original insight into attitudes towards sport hunting and its future potential, moving away from its traditions of hunting animals to hunting humans. This paper encourages debate around a taboo-subject, by drawing on a popular past-time, sport. Death is also universal, and by aligning the topic with sport and as a hunting activity, this paper is offering original approaches to addressing difficult questions that need to be asked.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-06-06T02:10:38Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-11-2018-0092
  • Socio-technological scenarios of Japan’s future energy issues in 2050
           based on scanning-based foresight method
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and technology (S&T). Design/methodology/approach A workshop based on the scanning-based foresight method (SBFM) was conducted. Social change scenarios were created by participants browsed scanning materials about futuristic topics. Then, energy and society scenarios were produced by combining social change scenarios and future issues describing S&T related to energy in Japan in the future. Findings The participants who have different scientific and technological experties produced various images of Japan’s energy society around the year 2050. Based on these depictions, future visions of scenarios about energy and society were different in terms of consistency between S&T and future needs from current visions which focus on the transient of social awareness. The sociocentric view and confidence in self-made technology were found in the workshop and the participants believed some social problems would be solved with rich experiences and expertises in S&T even if human resources were limited. It was also found that each scenario portrayed an optimistic view of the relatively near future, in which innovative energy-related technologies are developed to optimize both personal satisfaction and social efficiency. On the other hand, we found rather pessimistic survival scenarios about the far future as concerns climate change and natural disasters. Originality/value Experts from several fields used their insight to apprehend an energy future and depicted, from scientific and technological perspectives, a vision of a different future society from the one that would emerge in a traditional linear scenario in which a proper balance is struck between the usage of S&T and its limitations. SBFM was also found to be beneficial for insight into energy S&T with its many uncertainties.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-06-19T02:41:25Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2018-0115
  • A meta-synthesis approach to specify components of future banking
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to depict an extensive and cohesive picture of future banking’s dimensions and components. Design/methodology/approach A two-step qualitative approach has been applied. First, an extensive scanning has been carried out to identify megatrends and best practices. Second, applying meta-synthesis analysis, more than 186 up-to-date references were strategically scanned to elicit dimensions and components of future banking. Findings This research has had twofold findings. The direct and explicit results were the main dimensions of banking in the future: information technology, employees, customers, diversified services, organizational structures and farsightedness. The implicit findings were also remarkable: many entities are thinking about future of banking, mostly in financial technology dimension; the departure from traditional banking has recently been accelerated; and more works need to be done to have a comprehensive map of banking in the future. Research limitations/implications As the research methodology was based upon a literature review, it lacks covering some hidden or less flashing dimensions such as future business models, merging between banks and other financial or technological firms in advance, the evolution of organizational structures, etc., which would be captured by applying other methods such as expert Delphi panels. Practical implications Planners in the banking industry can benefit from the direct findings. They may extend the results, customize and prioritize the components to provide a competitive business model in the future market of banking. Originality/value The novelty of this paper lies in a cohesive representation of future banking dimensions and components, which is created by a systematic methodology and broad literature review.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-06-17T09:58:15Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-10-2018-0089
  • Evaluating the quality of investment products: can expert judgment
           outsmart the market'
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to deal with expert judgment and its predictive ability in the context of investment funds. The judgmental ratings awarder with a large set of experts was compared to a sample of the dynamic investment funds operating in Central andEastern Europe with their objective performance, both past and future, relatively to the time of the forecast. Design/methodology/approach Data on the survey sample enabled the authors to evaluate both ex post judgmental validity, i.e. how the experts reflected the previous performance of funds, and ex ante predictive accuracy, i.e. how well their judgments estimated the future performance of the fund. For this purpose, logistic regression for past values estimations and linear model for future values estimations was used. Findings It was found that the experts (independent academicians, senior bank specialists and senior financial advisors) were only able to successfully reflect past annual returns of a five-year period, failing to reflect costs and annual volatility and, mainly, failing to predict any of the indicators on the same five-year horizon. Practical implications The outcomes of this paper confirm that expert judgment should be used with caution in the context of financial markets and mainly in situations when domain knowledge is applicable. Procedures incorporating judgmental evaluations, such as individual investment advice, should be thoroughly reviewed in terms of client value-added, to eliminate potential anchoring bias. Originality/value This paper sheds new light on the quality and nature of individual judgment produced by financial experts. These are prevalent in many situations influencing clients’ decision-making, be it financial advice or multiple product contests. As such, our findings underline the need of scepticism when these judgments are taken into account.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-06-13T09:56:41Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-10-2018-0087
  • The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise. Design/methodology/approach After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed. Findings Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience. Practical implications Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization. Originality/value Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-06-13T09:54:16Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-10-2018-0086
  • Proposing a total quality management (TQM) model for open government data
           (OGD) initiatives: implications for India
    • Pages: 321 - 331
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 21, Issue 3, Page 321-331, May 2019.
      Purpose This paper aims to advance a total quality management (TQM) model for the open government data (OGD) initiatives undertaken by the governments. As an example, the paper investigates the national OGD portal of India ( and provides implications of the proposed TQM model for the Indian case. Design/methodology/approach The TQM model for the OGD initiatives (16 dimensions in terms of drivers, enablers and results) is derived from the extant literature on the principles of TQM and OGD. The proposed model is used for drawing implications for the Indian OGD initiative. Findings The application of TQM model for the OGD initiative in India would help in quality maintenance and sustainability. The quality of the OGD portal should be improved by taking the TQM model as a point of reference. Practical implications Ensuring quality of the datasets is important for any OGD initiative. The proposed TQM model leaves insights for the practitioners (policymakers and administrators) to implement the TQM model in the OGD policy initiatives. This would lead to increased trust, transparency and accountability. Social implications Through the integration of the TQM model in the OGD initiative of the country, a wider section of the stakeholders may tap the qualitatively advanced datasets for value creation. Citizen participation and engagement would increase with the integration of the TQM model in the OGD initiative. Originality/value While management of quality in the OGD initiatives has been underlined in the extant OGD-focused literature, the utility of applying TQM principles in OGD initiatives has not been conceived so far. The present study seeks to contribute towards the extant literature on TQM and OGD with the identification of the TQM model for the OGD initiatives.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-22T03:39:42Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-07-2018-0073
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