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Publisher: Emerald   (Total: 309 journals)

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A Life in the Day     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Accounting Auditing & Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Accounting Research J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23, SJR: 0.155, h-index: 2)
Accounting, Auditing and Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Advances in Accounting Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Advances in Appreciative Inquiry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Advances in Dual Diagnosis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Advances in Mental Health and Intellectual Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 40, SJR: 0.133, h-index: 2)
Advances in Mental Health and Learning Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
African J. of Economic and Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Agricultural Finance Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 189, SJR: 0.285, h-index: 13)
American J. of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Anti-Corrosion Methods and Materials     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.219, h-index: 22)
Arts Marketing : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Asia Pacific J. of Marketing and Logistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Asia-Pacific J. of Business Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.167, h-index: 4)
Asian Education and Development Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Asian J. on Quality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Asian Review of Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.119, h-index: 2)
Aslib J. of Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Aslib Proceedings     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 350, SJR: 0.64, h-index: 22)
Assembly Automation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.301, h-index: 18)
Baltic J. of Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.279, h-index: 8)
Benchmarking : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.671, h-index: 25)
British Food J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.441, h-index: 20)
Built Environment Project and Asset Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Business Process Management J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.7, h-index: 24)
Business Strategy Series     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.139, h-index: 2)
Campus-Wide Information Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.292, h-index: 11)
Career Development Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.75, h-index: 19)
China Agricultural Economic Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.315, h-index: 4)
China Finance Review Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Chinese Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.254, h-index: 6)
Circuit World     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.241, h-index: 14)
Clinical Governance: An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.232, h-index: 12)
Collection Building     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.433, h-index: 8)
COMPEL: The Intl. J. for Computation and Mathematics in Electrical and Electronic Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.244, h-index: 16)
Competitiveness Review : An Intl. Business J. incorporating J. of Global Competitiveness     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Corporate Communications An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.535, h-index: 15)
Corporate Governance Intl. J. of Business in Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.285, h-index: 17)
Critical Perspectives on Intl. Business     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.312, h-index: 9)
Cross Cultural Management An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.434, h-index: 4)
Development and Learning in Organizations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 5)
Direct Marketing An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Disaster Prevention and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 0.283, h-index: 21)
Drugs and Alcohol Today     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 0, h-index: 1)
Education + Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.338, h-index: 18)
Education, Business and Society : Contemporary Middle Eastern Issues     Hybrid Journal  
Employee Relations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.331, h-index: 13)
Engineering Computations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.435, h-index: 30)
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.329, h-index: 18)
Equal Opportunities Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Equality, Diversity and Inclusion : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.256, h-index: 2)
Ethnicity and Inequalities in Health and Social Care     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 1)
EuroMed J. of Business     Hybrid Journal  
European Business Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.425, h-index: 13)
European J. of Innovation Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.556, h-index: 19)
European J. of Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.811, h-index: 31)
European J. of Training and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.387, h-index: 14)
Evidence-based HRM     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Facilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.323, h-index: 11)
foresight     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.47, h-index: 14)
Gender in Management : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.294, h-index: 14)
Grey Systems : Theory and Application     Hybrid Journal  
Health Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.278, h-index: 11)
Higher Education, Skills and Work-based Learning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33, SJR: 0.112, h-index: 2)
History of Education Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0, h-index: 1)
Housing, Care and Support     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.187, h-index: 1)
Human Resource Management Intl. Digest     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.105, h-index: 4)
Humanomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Indian Growth and Development Review     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.121, h-index: 1)
Industrial and Commercial Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.184, h-index: 8)
Industrial Lubrication and Tribology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.433, h-index: 14)
Industrial Management & Data Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.979, h-index: 49)
Industrial Robot An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.483, h-index: 21)
Info     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.374, h-index: 14)
Information and Computer Security     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.397, h-index: 25)
Information Technology & People     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 189, SJR: 0.565, h-index: 18)
Interactive Technology and Smart Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Interlending & Document Supply     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 267, SJR: 0.411, h-index: 9)
Internet Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 239, SJR: 0.899, h-index: 40)
Intl. J. for Lesson and Learning Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. for Researcher Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Intl. J. of Accounting and Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.125, h-index: 1)
Intl. J. of Bank Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.716, h-index: 21)
Intl. J. of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Intl. J. of Clothing Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.154, h-index: 18)
Intl. J. of Commerce and Management     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Conflict Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.459, h-index: 28)
Intl. J. of Contemporary Hospitality Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.795, h-index: 19)
Intl. J. of Culture Tourism and Hospitality Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Intl. J. of Development Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Intl. J. of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.337, h-index: 4)
Intl. J. of Educational Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Emergency Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Emerging Markets     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Energy Sector Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.249, h-index: 6)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.441, h-index: 16)

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Journal Cover   foresight
  [SJR: 0.47]   [H-I: 14]   [9 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 1463-6689
   Published by Emerald Homepage  [309 journals]
  • Everything connects: How to transform and lead in the age of creativity,
           innovation and sustainability
    • Authors: Maya Zhukovskaya et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 17, Issue 1, March 2015.
      PubDate: Wed, 28 Jan 2015 01:10:52 GMT
  • The importance of non-equilibrium in the development of economic system
           (thermodynamic approach)
    • Authors: Stefan Volner et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 17, Issue 1, March 2015. Purpose New non-equilibrium systems theory is a very important theoretical and methodological base of survey and understanding of contemporary economic systems and processes. Equilibrium is considered one of the basic conditions of existence and evolution of natural and social systems, according to scientific literature. Generally speaking, it can be presented as a true. But the problem is that classical imagination perceives equilibrium as something real and stable, something more stable than basic condition of evolution of systems. Non-equilibrium state was usually understood as something negative, something destructive; something which has to be eliminated. Non-equilibrium state was understood as an anomaly, as an expression of weakening of system security, as a road to extinction. Thermodynamics comes with an idea that equilibrium is a “short” state of the system, equilibrium is very relative and all systems try to meet it but they will never reach it. Equilibrium is usually connected with classical science and non-equilibrium state is connected with thermodynamics paradigm, with new methodology of science. Non-equilibrium state is often seen as a basic condition, as an internal source of system evolution and its activities. Non-equilibrium state is a base of new arrangement of systems. Misunderstanding of contemporary non-equilibrium state theory, new expressions or aspects of dynamic processes, can bring about negative impacts on the survey and establishment of new global economic system, e.g. new national and local economic systems. Therefore the non-equilibrium state theory is a methodological base of new perception and survey of contemporary economic systems. Design/methodology/approach A study of non-equillibrium thermodynamics. Findings Irreversibility and non-equilibrium, occurring in each process and evolutionary phase of economic systems, are connected with accidents and openness. Openness of systems enables (and causes) diversification towards wider system or environment and penetration of external elements and processes to internal structure of the system. A system like this is more sensitive to external and internal changes. Considering the previously mentioned it is very important to be aware of the fact that entropy has different behavior in “closed” systems; different from behavior in open systems. Open economic systems communicate with external environment, interact with external systems and they exchange the energy. They consume energy of external environment and penetrate it. Elements, nodes and joints in open systems can communicate, connect and integrate with elements, nodes and joints from external systems. The growth of entropy is “smoother” and equilibrium of the system, its sub-systems and elements, proceeds despite of the non-equilibrium state of elements of own system. They have to communicate and exchange the energy with external environment. It is because of the non-equilibrium state. Originality/value This is an original thermodynamic approach to the importance of non-equilibrium in the development of economic systems.
      PubDate: Wed, 28 Jan 2015 01:10:52 GMT
  • Aspirational guidance for wiser futures: Toward open-sourced ascension
           from ego-centric to eco-centric human communities
    • Authors: Oliver Markley et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 17, Issue 1, March 2015. Purpose To explore and demonstrate how the meme of aspiration can help guide human cultures through a global megacrisis and epochal transformation to a "soft landing" of resilient sustainability, abundant well-being and psychosocial evolution Design/methodology/approach Aspirational Futures Process, intuition-based visioning and “Type II” thinking that has high credibility for knowledgeable experts but low credibility to most others. Findings 1) Megacrisis is a Type II wild card needing anticipatory mitigation via strategies such as are suggested. 2) While descent paths may be a suitable meme for technical professionals, ascent paths to higher levels of civilizational maturity is a better guiding image for the public. 3) Aspirational methods whose core involves intuition-based creativity, wisdom and co-creative emergence are a vital complement to rational/analytic futures methods, especially in times of epochal change and uncertainty when a new “regime” of guiding world views, institutional processes and innovative technologies may emerge. Research limitations/implications These results represent a high degree of uncertainly as well as ‘fringe” thinking needing to be more widely considered. Practical implications Strategic suggestions based on Type II thinking are a unique category for “leading edge” funding and application. Originality/value The Type II aspirational perspective offered here is unique and offers a promising approach for transformative megacrisis mitigation.
      PubDate: Wed, 28 Jan 2015 01:10:51 GMT
  • Knowledge management and global climate change regime negotiations
    • Authors: Mohamad Zakaria et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 17, Issue 1, March 2015. Purpose This paper discusses some of the important factors that negotiators and policy makers need to take into account while putting their strategies to negotiate global climate change regimes. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on qualitative research using the deductive approach. Integrating the theoretical and empirical material in the analysis is used to enhance the readers’ value and interest in the paper. Findings Without deep understanding of why some international negotiations related to climate change have previously failed it is difficult to successfully negotiate them in the future. Flexibility and openness during negotiations and to consider the views and concerns of all global actors in finding optimum solutions and cooperation are among the many essential factors that bring the world leaders into a compromise agreement and a global climate change regime. Knowledge management including taking into account the discussed factors may help the negotiators and public to be more prepared to understand the obstacles that may complicate negotiating the international climate change regimes. Research limitations/implications This paper is not intended for those who have years of experience in climate change negotiations nor for those seeking deep theoretical knowledge about this topic. Practical implications This paper has practical implications as it combines the theories of international relations with practical evidences from previous Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC. Originality/value The paper deals with a very important and current issue and little has been published on the process of preparation for negotiating climate change negotiation. It covers some critical issues and determining factors in such negotiations.
      PubDate: Wed, 28 Jan 2015 01:10:50 GMT
  • Forecasting inflation in G-7 countries - an application of artificial
           neural network
    • Authors: SANJEEV GUPTA et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 17, Issue 1, March 2015. Purpose The paper aims to evaluate different artificial neural network models and suggest a suitable model for forecasting inflation in G-7 countries. Design/methodology/approach The study applies different combination of neural networks with hyperbolic tangent function using backpropagation learning with the steepest gradient descent technique to monthly data on Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) of USA, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada. Findings Prediction of inflation based on Consumer Price Index for all the seven countries divulged that in near prospective, it is expected that rate of inflation will decline marginally. Practical implications The results proposed in this study will be benchmark for the policy makers, economists and practitioners to foresee inflation and design policies accordingly. Originality/value The paper's findings provide strong evidence to the policy makers that while constructing the models for forecasting inflation, the suggested models can be used to track the future rates of inflation and further they can apply that model in framing policies.
      PubDate: Wed, 28 Jan 2015 01:10:49 GMT
  • The great divide, nature and human nature in the old world and the new
    • Authors: Jacques G RICHARDSON et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 17, Issue 1, March 2015.
      PubDate: Wed, 28 Jan 2015 01:10:48 GMT
  • The next K-Wave and the challenge of global democracy
    • Authors: Markku Wilenius et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 17, Issue 1, March 2015. Purpose The aim of the project on which this paper is based is to clarify – using Kondratieff theory of long-term socio-economic cycles – how the next (sixth) wave will look like. The focus lies in the socio-political aspect of change. Design/methodology/approach The article is a short and partial summary of a major project called “The Sixth Wave”. Workshops and surveys have been run in Finland and in Silicon Valley, California. Findings The project coordinators have been testing the theory of Kondratieff waves with various methods and have found it to be a convincing way to identify the patterns of change. It really brings in anticipatory power to its users. Research limitations/implications There are lots of interesting implications of using K-Wave as a framework to understand next decades. More research regarding the future technologies in the K-Wave context should be undertaken. Practical implications The author believes that the K-Wave framework can be also regarded as anticipatory tool for business. The heavy emphasis in the author’s K-wave theory on resource productivity as a technology driver for the next wave makes it obvious that all technologies and businesses that aim at performing with greater output with less material or energy input are regarded as winners of their respective schemes in the emerging wave as the demand for these services will rise dramatically. Originality/value The project coordinators have given a whole new interpretation to the Kondratieff theory. They approach the theory with social science framework rather than customary economic framework, and have also tested their model with the project’s industrial partners.
      PubDate: Wed, 28 Jan 2015 01:10:47 GMT
  • Future Earth: declining energy use and economic output
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 512-526, November 2014. Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that the observed strong link between global economic output and primary energy use will continue in future; and attempts to replace fossil fuels with alternative energy sources or implementing CO2 removal or geoengineering approaches cannot provide the level of clean energy that economic growth needs. Global economic growth, therefore, is unlikely to continue for much longer. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses historical and recent global data (2012) for energy output from various sources, economic output and CO2, emissions to make its case. Findings – Alternative energy output is growing too slowly, and faces too many problems, to significantly change the energy mix in the coming decades. Continued use of fossil fuels requires either massive CO2 removal/sequestration or global solar radiation management (SRM). The first is too expensive and would take decades to be significant, the second carries risks, some already known and possibly also unknown ones. Practical implications – The paper makes the case that technical fixes such as alternative fuels, energy efficiency improvements, carbon dioxide capture and SRM will not be sufficient to prevent global climate change. Social implications – Social change, rather than reliance on technical fixes, is needed for ecologically sustainable economies. Originality/value – Most research argues that global energy intensity and carbon intensity will continue to fall. In contrast, we argue that the strong link observed between global economic output and primary energy use will most likely continue.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:56 GMT
  • Descent pathways
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 485-495, November 2014. Purpose – The purpose of this special issue is first to highlight the need for wider understanding of the “civilisational challenge” facing humanity, as it encounters and then exceeds significant limits to growth. The second is to present material that provides grounds for developing effective responses. Design/methodology/approach – The issue draws on evidence from previous research, economic modelling and a range of other sources to investigate the hypothesis that humanity is heading towards an “overshoot and collapse” future. It further suggests that a useful way of responding is to explore the possibility that the prospect of collapse can be moderated or avoided through a process of “conscious descent.” Findings – The main findings are that a very wide spectrum of policies, actions, strategies and options is available that can and should be used to help us avoid the most disastrous manifestations of “overshoot and collapse.” Yet there are also many barriers and impediments that continue to inhibit effective responses. This means that the process of coming to grips with the “civilisational challenge” will take longer and become increasingly costly. Denialism and short term thinking remain embedded in dominant institutions and mainstream practice. Currently, vastly more is miss-spent on various perverse incentives (e.g. advertising, the funding of denial, fossil fuel subsidies) than on securing the future of civilisation. This can be seen as a consequence of outdated values and inadequate worldviews. Research limitations/implications – The contributions here represent a sample from within a rapidly expanding field of enquiry and action. They should therefore be seen as indicating the need for further high quality investigation, work and action. The main implication is that this process needs to be taken seriously, properly resourced and eventually transformed into a mainstream social project. Originality/value – The papers are contributions to an in-depth understanding of a complex and evolving situation. Their value lies in the fact that greater understanding and a commitment to early action are among the most productive investments available to societies vulnerable to the systemic threats outlined here. As such, the special issue evokes a fundamental tenet of foresight work in general. Or to put this in the words of Bertrand de Jouvenel, “the proof of improvidence lies in falling under the empire of necessity.”
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:53 GMT
  • Conjuring clean energy: exposing green assumptions in media and academia
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 567-585, November 2014. Purpose – This paper aims to present uncomfortable questions about the viability of alternative energy technologies, which arise during economic contraction but are scarcely addressed within media and academia. Design/methodology/approach – The author identifies and graphically illustrates distinct differences between media coverage of energy production and energy reduction strategies during an oil price shock beginning in 2003. Findings – In writing about alternative energy production, journalists used promising storytelling and future-oriented language to frame these technologies as solutions to climate change. Meanwhile, journalists described energy reduction strategies using mundane language anchored in the present and not as strongly linked to climate change. For example, one in seven articles associated alternative energy production with energy independence. Only 1 in 5,000 linked energy reduction strategies to energy independence. Research limitations/implications – These observations loosely illustrate a pervasive energy production ethos (a reflexive network including behaviors, symbols, expectations and material conditions). Considering this ethos during a time of economic contraction exposes hidden assumptions about alternative energy technologies and the fossil fuels that they are expected to replace, as well as numerous unasked questions. For instance, does the high cost of alternative energy ultimately reveal hidden fossil fuel use behind the curtain' Where does the high cost of alternative energy ultimately accrue, if not to fossil fuels (via labor, materials, etc.)' Practical implications – This paper presents questions that journalists, policymakers, energy researchers and students can use to critically assess energy narratives. Originality/value – This paper critically explores numerous assumptions, which undergird belief that renewable energy production will ease hardship during transitions toward contraction and degrowth.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:51 GMT
  • Not the Future We Ordered: Peak Oil, Psychology and the Myth of Progress
    • Authors: et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 615-620, November 2014.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:50 GMT
  • Societies Beyond Oil: Oil Dregs and Social Futures
    • Authors: et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 608-615, November 2014.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:48 GMT
  • Sense-making and acting for descent futures: human and cultural pathways
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 586-607, November 2014. Purpose – This paper aims to make the case for continued opportunity for high levels of human well-being under descent conditions characterised by declining economic throughput and socio-political complexity. Design/methodology/approach – Relationships between assumptions about human well-being formed within a modern industrial context, the guiding narratives attending these, and the broader cultural influence of ideas from the evolutionary sciences are examined. Alternative ways of making sense of these relationships are explored. The experiences of societies guided by cultural narratives based on different premises to those most influential in industrial societies are reviewed for their implications for human well-being under descent conditions. Findings – Human experiences of well-being are principally a function of the sources of meaning and associated narratives by which members of a culture make sense of their situation, as these determine the nature of the material and energetic conditions required to live well. Under descent conditions, the narrative of progress that has supported viable societies during the 300-year period of industrial expansion is unlikely to continue serving humanity well. Collective participation in the renewal of guiding cultural narratives is a primary target for efforts to provide continued opportunities for high quality of life to all members of humanity. Practical implications – The findings point towards specific characteristics of cultural sense-making narratives that may support viable human societies under descent conditions. Social implications – By moving beyond the default assumption that descent automatically implies decline in human well-being, a barrier may be lowered to more open and mature society-wide engagement in conversations about the present human predicament and effective ways of responding to it. Originality/value – New connections are identified between perspectives based on biological evolutionary theory and the continued influence of the idea of progress in establishing default assumptions about prospects for human well-being under descent conditions. Experiences of non-industrial societies are taken as the basis for identifying opportunities for human well-being under far more modest material and energetic conditions than those available to the portion of humanity that presently enjoys benefits of industrial development that outweigh the attendant costs.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:45 GMT
  • “New beginnings” within a new normal for the four futures
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 496-511, November 2014. Purpose – This paper aims to offer real and explicit reasons for viewing the futures of humanity and Earth as positive, fulfilling and meaningful, if humans view it as such and act to make it so. The paper incorporates the results of several recent research projects and activities that were based on the assumptions of an earlier paper titled, “The Unholy Trinity, Plus One.” It argues that the conclusions of the original paper are even more obvious and urgent than they were originally, and that while an “alternative futures” perspective must always be the basis of any statements about or actions toward the futures, the concerns of The Unholy Trinity, Plus One, are now part of a “new normal” that must be incorporated in each of the alternatives. This paper emphasizes that this “new normal” is, and must be prepared for as, a splendid opportunity for humans to start on new adventures; that one episode of human history (based on cheap and abundant energy, a benign environment, effective government and continued economic growth) is over, and a world with different challenges and opportunities for New Beginnings has already opened up. It concludes by offering an example of how the transition might be approached and managed positively and effectively. Design/methodology/approach – Both papers relied heavily on a combination of trend analysis and emerging issues analysis viewed through the lens of four generic alternative futures for understanding continuing trends and anticipating new, emerging issues, and for then formulating appropriate anticipatory responses to them. Findings – The fundamental findings reconfirm and deepen the original findings – that it is far too late to prevent or postpone the transformative effects of The Unholy Trinity, Plus One; that one must and can prepare for and welcome them as providing humans now and in the immediate futures with an opportunity for innovation, identity, meaning and vibrant lives. The research and practical experiences and simulations illuminated ways in which these positive futures might be achieved. Research limitations/implications – It is urgent that humans now turn their attention from either denying the fact of overwhelming change or trying to prop up old economic, governmental and educational systems, and begin to invent new systems that are appropriate for making the transition from the old environment to new ones. Social implications – At the end of the paper, the authors offer one example of a successful transition, based on the research. It is presented as though humans are in Hawaii in the future, after oil has stopped flowing, along with the imported food, products and tourists upon which humans are now entirely dependent, and Hawaii has once again become entirely self-sufficient and prosperous. Originality/value – The main focus of the paper, in contrast to most that deal with this issue, is to encourage readers not only to consider the inevitability of rapid and extensive social, environmental, resource and institutional change, but also, by viewing the situation as a positive, welcomed opportunity for innovation and improvement, actually to make it so.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:44 GMT
  • Voluntary simplification as an alternative to collapse
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 550-566, November 2014. Purpose – This paper aims to re-examine Tainter’s dismissal of the voluntary simplification strategy. Joseph Tainter argues that “sustainability” is about problem-solving and that problem-solving increases social complexity. But he also argues that social complexity requires energy and resources, and this implies that solving problems, including environmental problems, usually demands increases in energy and resource consumption, not reductions. For this reason Tainter argues that voluntary simplification – the strategy of choosing to reduce consumption – is not an available means of solving the problems of civilisation. Design/methodology/approach – This paper briefly outlines Tainter’s theory of diminishing returns on complexity and lays out his arguments against voluntary simplification. The critical sections of the paper examine those arguments and find certain ambiguities in them that open up space of voluntary simplification. Findings – Part of my disagreement with Tainter turns on differing notions of “sustainability.” Whereas Tainter seems to use sustainability to mean sustaining the existing civilisation, the author uses sustainability to mean changing the form of civilisation through voluntary simplification, insofar as that is required for humanity to operate within the carrying capacity of the planet. By exposing the indeterminate, value-laden nature of what constitutes a “problem” and what constitutes an appropriate “solution,” it becomes clear that some societal problems can be dissolved rather than solved, that problems have various solutions and that a society’s available energy supply can be redistributed to achieve voluntary simplification while still solving existing and ongoing problems. Originality/value – Given that Tainter seems to accept that his own conception of sustainability will eventually lead to collapse, the author feels he is wrong to be so dismissive of voluntary simplification as a strategy for potentially avoiding collapse. It is, the author argues, our only alternative to collapse, and if that is so, voluntary simplification ought to be given our most rigorous attention and commitment, even if the chances of success do not seem high at all. This paper provides a new analysis of the voluntary simplification strategy and shows that it holds more promise than Tainter appreciates.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:42 GMT
  • The denial of limits and interior aspects of descent
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, Page 527-549, November 2014. Purpose – The purposes of this paper are as follows. Part one examines the role of denialism in the context of proposals advanced through the much-abused Limits to Growth (LtG) project. Part two uses three sets of criteria (domains of reality, worldviews and values) to characterise some of the interior human and social aspects of the “denial machine.” It uses these criteria to address some vital, but currently under-appreciated “interior” aspects of descent. (N.B. A succinct “primer” or overview of the concept an underpinning rationale for notions of “descent pathways” is provided in the introduction to this special issue.) Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on a number of authoritative sources that track the dimensions of global change and, specifically, the ways that humanity is tracking towards Dystopian overshoot-and-collapse futures. The significance of the LtG project is assessed in this context. Part two employs the criteria noted above to identify and open out the centrality of the human and cultural interiors. Findings – Responses to the LtG project are shown to have deprived humanity of the clarity and will to respond effectively to the emerging global emergency. The rise of climate change denialism has followed suit and made effective responses increasingly difficult. A new focus, however, on some of the dynamics of reality domains, worldviews and values, clarifies both the nature of the problem and prefigures a range of solutions, some of which are briefly outlined. Research limitations/implications – This is primarily a conceptual paper that suggests a range of practical responses. For example, re-purposing parts of the current information technology (IT) infrastructure away from financial and economic indices to those tracking the health of the planet. Also translating the case put forward here for a new generation of Institutions of Foresight (IoFs) into real-world start-ups and examples. Further research is needed into the uses and limitation, both of positive and negative views of futures. It is suggested that the latter have more value than is commonly realised. Practical implications – In addition to those stated above, the practical implications include new uses for IT infrastructure based on worldcentric – rather than financial and economic worldviews; designing and implementing a new generation of IoFs; and finding new ways to inform the public of impending Dystopian outcomes without exacerbating avoidance and depression. Social implications – The social implications are profound. Currently, humanity has allowed itself to “tune out” and ignore many of the well-founded “signals” (from the global system) and warnings (from those who have observed and tracked real-world changes). As a result, it has outgrown the capacity of the planet to support the current population, let alone the 10 billion currently projected by the United Nations (UN). Something must give. Applied foresight can provide essential lead time to act before human actions are overwhelmed by forces beyond its control. Originality/value – The paper draws together material from hitherto disparate sources to assess the LtG project. It also deploys key concepts from an integral perspective that shed new light on human and cultural forces that determine how people respond to the prospect of Dystopian futures. In so doing, it provides insight into why we are where we are and also into some of the means by which humanity can respond. Specifically, it suggests a shift from collapse narratives to those of descent.
      PubDate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:27:34 GMT
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