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Publisher: Emerald   (Total: 356 journals)

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Showing 1 - 200 of 356 Journals sorted alphabetically
A Life in the Day     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administraci√≥n     Open Access   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.178, CiteScore: 1)
Accounting Auditing & Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32, SJR: 1.71, CiteScore: 3)
Accounting Research J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.144, CiteScore: 0)
Accounting, Auditing and Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 2.187, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Accounting Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.279, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Appreciative Inquiry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.451, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Autism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Dual Diagnosis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 47, SJR: 0.21, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Gender Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.16, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Intl. Marketing     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6)
Advances in Mental Health and Intellectual Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 83, SJR: 0.296, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Mental Health and Learning Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30)
African J. of Economic and Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.216, CiteScore: 1)
Agricultural Finance Review     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.406, CiteScore: 1)
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 211, SJR: 0.354, CiteScore: 1)
American J. of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Annals in Social Responsibility     Full-text available via subscription  
Anti-Corrosion Methods and Materials     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.235, CiteScore: 1)
Arts and the Market     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Asia Pacific J. of Innovation and Entrepreneurship     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Asia Pacific J. of Marketing and Logistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.425, CiteScore: 1)
Asia-Pacific J. of Business Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.234, CiteScore: 1)
Asian Association of Open Universities J.     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Asian Education and Development Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.233, CiteScore: 1)
Asian J. on Quality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Asian Review of Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 1)
Aslib J. of Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30, SJR: 0.725, CiteScore: 2)
Aslib Proceedings     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 308)
Assembly Automation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.603, CiteScore: 2)
Baltic J. of Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.309, CiteScore: 1)
Benchmarking : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.559, CiteScore: 2)
British Food J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.5, CiteScore: 2)
Built Environment Project and Asset Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.46, CiteScore: 1)
Business Process Re-engineering & Management J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Business Strategy Series     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Career Development Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.527, CiteScore: 2)
China Agricultural Economic Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.31, CiteScore: 1)
China Finance Review Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.245, CiteScore: 0)
Chinese Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.278, CiteScore: 1)
Circuit World     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.246, CiteScore: 1)
Collection and Curation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.296, CiteScore: 1)
COMPEL: The Intl. J. for Computation and Mathematics in Electrical and Electronic Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.22, CiteScore: 1)
Competitiveness Review : An Intl. Business J. incorporating J. of Global Competitiveness     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.274, CiteScore: 1)
Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.731, CiteScore: 2)
Corporate Communications An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.453, CiteScore: 1)
Corporate Governance Intl. J. of Business in Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.336, CiteScore: 1)
Critical Perspectives on Intl. Business     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.378, CiteScore: 1)
Cross Cultural & Strategic Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.504, CiteScore: 2)
Data Technologies and Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 323, SJR: 0.355, CiteScore: 1)
Development and Learning in Organizations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.138, CiteScore: 0)
Digital Library Perspectives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.341, CiteScore: 1)
Direct Marketing An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Disaster Prevention and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21, SJR: 0.47, CiteScore: 1)
Drugs and Alcohol Today     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 143, SJR: 0.245, CiteScore: 1)
Education + Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Education, Business and Society : Contemporary Middle Eastern Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 1.707, CiteScore: 3)
Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Employee Relations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.551, CiteScore: 2)
Engineering Computations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.444, CiteScore: 1)
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.653, CiteScore: 2)
English Teaching: Practice & Critique     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.417, CiteScore: 1)
Equal Opportunities Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Equality, Diversity and Inclusion : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.5, CiteScore: 1)
EuroMed J. of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.26, CiteScore: 1)
European Business Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.585, CiteScore: 3)
European J. of Innovation Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.454, CiteScore: 2)
European J. of Management and Business Economics     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.239, CiteScore: 1)
European J. of Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21, SJR: 0.971, CiteScore: 2)
European J. of Training and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 0.477, CiteScore: 1)
Evidence-based HRM     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.537, CiteScore: 1)
Facilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.503, CiteScore: 2)
Foresight     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.34, CiteScore: 1)
Gender in Management : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.412, CiteScore: 1)
Global Knowledge, Memory and Communication     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 977, SJR: 0.261, CiteScore: 1)
Grey Systems : Theory and Application     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Health Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.421, CiteScore: 1)
Higher Education Evaluation and Development     Open Access  
Higher Education, Skills and Work-based Learning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 46, SJR: 0.426, CiteScore: 1)
History of Education Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.26, CiteScore: 0)
Housing, Care and Support     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.171, CiteScore: 0)
Human Resource Management Intl. Digest     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.129, CiteScore: 0)
IMP J.     Hybrid Journal  
Indian Growth and Development Review     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.174, CiteScore: 0)
Industrial and Commercial Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.301, CiteScore: 1)
Industrial Lubrication and Tribology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.334, CiteScore: 1)
Industrial Management & Data Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.904, CiteScore: 3)
Industrial Robot An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.318, CiteScore: 1)
Info     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Information and Computer Security     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22, SJR: 0.307, CiteScore: 1)
Information Technology & People     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45, SJR: 0.671, CiteScore: 2)
Innovation & Management Review     Open Access  
Interactive Technology and Smart Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.191, CiteScore: 1)
Interlending & Document Supply     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 61)
Internet Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 37, SJR: 1.645, CiteScore: 5)
Intl. J. for Lesson and Learning Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.324, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. for Researcher Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Intl. J. of Accounting and Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.275, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Bank Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.654, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.353, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Clothing Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.318, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Commerce and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Conflict Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.362, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Contemporary Hospitality Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 1.452, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. of Culture Tourism and Hospitality Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.339, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Development Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.139, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.387, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Educational Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.559, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Emergency Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.201, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Emerging Markets     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.474, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Energy Sector Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.349, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.629, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Ethics and Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.333, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Event and Festival Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.388, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Gender and Entrepreneurship     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.445, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Health Care Quality Assurance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.358, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Health Governance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26, SJR: 0.247, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Housing Markets and Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.211, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Human Rights in Healthcare     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.205, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Information and Learning Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.226, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Innovation Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.197, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.214, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Intelligent Unmanned Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.375, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Law and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.217, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Leadership in Public Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Intl. J. of Lean Six Sigma     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.802, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Logistics Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.71, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Managerial Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.203, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Managing Projects in Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.36, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Manpower     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.365, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Mentoring and Coaching in Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 0.426, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Migration, Health and Social Care     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.307, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.697, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Operations & Production Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19, SJR: 2.052, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. of Organization Theory and Behavior     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Organizational Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.268, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Pervasive Computing and Communications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.138, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.25, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 1.821, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. of Prisoner Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.303, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Productivity and Performance Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.578, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Public Sector Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32, SJR: 0.438, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Quality & Reliability Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.492, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Quality and Service Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.309, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Retail & Distribution Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.742, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Service Industry Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Social Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.225, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Sociology and Social Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 54, SJR: 0.3, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Sports Marketing and Sponsorship     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.269, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Structural Integrity     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.228, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Sustainability in Higher Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.502, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Tourism Cities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.502, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Web Information Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.186, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Wine Business Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.562, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Workplace Health Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.303, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. Marketing Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.895, CiteScore: 3)
Irish J. of Occupational Therapy     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
ISRA Intl. J. of Islamic Finance     Open Access  
J. for Multicultural Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.237, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Accounting & Organizational Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.301, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Accounting in Emerging Economies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
J. of Adult Protection, The     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.314, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Advances in Management Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
J. of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.108, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Applied Accounting Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.227, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Applied Research in Higher Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 49, SJR: 0.2, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Asia Business Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.245, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Assistive Technologies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
J. of Business & Industrial Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.652, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Business Strategy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.333, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Capital Markets Studies     Open Access  
J. of Centrum Cathedra     Open Access  
J. of Children's Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.243, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.2, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Chinese Entrepreneurship     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
J. of Chinese Human Resource Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.173, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Communication Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.625, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Consumer Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19, SJR: 0.664, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Corporate Real Estate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.368, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Criminal Psychology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 134, SJR: 0.268, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Criminological Research, Policy and Practice     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 48, SJR: 0.254, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Cultural Heritage Management and Sustainable Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.257, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Defense Analytics and Logistics     Open Access  
J. of Documentation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 189, SJR: 0.613, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Economic and Administrative Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
J. of Economic Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.733, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.217, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Educational Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 1.252, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Enabling Technologies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.369, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Engineering, Design and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.212, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Enterprise Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.827, CiteScore: 4)
J. of Enterprising Communities People and Places in the Global Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.281, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.262, CiteScore: 1)
J. of European Industrial Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
J. of European Real Estate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.268, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Facilities Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.33, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Family Business Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
J. of Fashion Marketing and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.608, CiteScore: 2)

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Journal Cover
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.34
Citation Impact (citeScore): 1
Number of Followers: 7  
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1463-6689
Published by Emerald Homepage  [356 journals]
  • Long-term trajectories of human civilization
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Originality/value Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-02-11T02:27:18Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0037
  • On the predictability of economic structural change by the
           Poincaré–Bendixson theory
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The three-sector framework (relating to agriculture, manufacturing and services) is one of the major concepts for studying the long-run change of the economic structure. This paper aims to discuss the system-theoretical classification of the structural change in the three-sector framework and, in particular, its predictability by the Poincaré–Bendixson theory. Design/methodology/approach This study compares the assumptions of the Poincaré–Bendixson theory to the typical axioms of structural change modeling, the empirical evidence on the geometrical properties of structural change trajectories and the methodological arguments referring to the laws of structural change. Findings The findings support the assumption that the structural change phenomenon is representable by a dynamical system that is predictable by the Poincaré–Bendixson theory. This result implies, among others, that in the long run, structural change is either transitory or cyclical and can be used in further geometrical/topological long-run structural change modeling and prediction. Originality/value Although widespread in mathematics, geometrical/topological modeling methods have not been used in modeling and prediction of long-run structural change, despite the fact that they seem to be predestined for this purpose owing to their global, system-theoretical nature, allowing for a reduction of ideology content of predictions and greater robustness of results.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-01-25T02:59:05Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-06-2018-0065
  • Evaluating local vulnerability and organisational resilience to frequent
           flooding in Africa: the case of Northern Cameroon
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate local vulnerability and organisational resilience including coping/adaptive capacity to climate risks, specifically frequent flooding in Northern Cameroon. Design/methodology/approach The research is exploratory/deductive and draws upon qualitative methods, secondary and empirical techniques supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews with senior disaster managers. Secondary information sources, which include peer review articles, government reports/plans, newspaper articles and other grey literature, enhanced the analysis. Findings The research findings have unveiled the physical and social vulnerability of Northern Cameroon to frequent flooding. Results also show that institutional performance for flood management in Cameroon is ineffective, and adaptive capacity is highly deficient. Cameroon’s legislative framework for flood management is weak, and this exacerbates the poor implementation of structural and non-structural flood management measures. Results also indicate issues with relief, evacuation and foreign assistance in flood management. Recommendations that focus on enhancing capacity of response to frequent flooding via reducing vulnerabilities, managing resilience and enhancing adaptive capacity are provided. Originality/value Using Gallopin’s (2006) model of vulnerability, this paper makes a distinct contribution by offering insights into the role of adaptive capacity in disaster management systems in developing (African) countries via an evaluation of vulnerabilities and organisational resilience to repeated flooding in Northern Cameroon.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2019-01-18T03:08:07Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-06-2018-0068
  • Towards personalized medicine: the evolution of imperceptible health-care
    • Pages: 589 - 601
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 6, Page 589-601, November 2018.
      Purpose When wearable and implantable devices first arose in the 1970s, they were rigid and clashed dramatically with our soft, pliable skin and organs. The past two decades have witnessed a major upheaval in these devices. Traditional electronics are six orders of magnitude stiffer than soft tissue. As a result, when rigid electronics are integrated with the human body, severe challenges in both mechanical and geometrical form mismatch occur. This mismatch creates an uneven contact at the interface of soft-tissue, leading to noisy and unreliable data gathering of the body’s vital signs. This paper aims to predict the role that discreet, seamless medical devices will play in personalized health care by discussing novel solutions for alleviating this interface mismatch and exploring the challenges in developing and commercializing such devices. Design methodology/approach Since the form factors of biology cannot be changed to match those of rigid devices, conformable devices that mimic the shape and mechanical properties of soft body tissue must be designed and fabricated. These conformable devices play the role of imperceptible medical interfaces. Such interfaces can help scientists and medical practitioners to gain further insights into the body by providing an accurate and reliable instrument that can conform closely to the target areas of interest for continuous, long-term monitoring of the human body, while improving user experience. Findings The authors have highlighted current attempts of mechanically adaptive devices for health care, and the authors forecast key aspects for the future of these conformable biomedical devices and the ways in which these devices will revolutionize how health care is administered or obtained. Originality/value The authors conclude this paper with the perspective on the challenges of implementing this technology for practical use, including device packaging, environmental life cycle, data privacy, industry partnership and collaboration.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T01:35:46Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-08-2018-0075
  • Scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: requirements, benefits and
    • Pages: 602 - 621
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 6, Page 602-621, November 2018.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario planning in strategic decision-making. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a sample of 15 case studies with executives in the South African context to reveal the perceived corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning. Findings From the cases, it is evident that industry-, organizational- and leadership-related factors enable or inhibit scenario planning. Requirements, benefits and inhibitors are revealed in strategic decision-making. Research limitations/implications Further research to determine supportive tools and technologies for enabling scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. Practical implications This paper expands insights into the requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Originality/value Given the increasing complexity of the business environment, a framework of scenario-thinking is presented and recommend greater emphasis on developing strategic decision-making competence, changed mindsets and organizational agility.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-22T01:00:26Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0036
  • Improving predictions of international business environments: China as a
           case in point
    • Pages: 622 - 634
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 6, Page 622-634, November 2018.
      Purpose Firms engaged in international business necessarily make predictions about the business environments in which they operate or seek to enter, on the basis of which they make a number of strategic decisions. The purpose of this paper is to consider the difficulties there are in making accurate predictions and how the process might be improved. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines predictions made in 2007 by ‘China experts’ about what the Chinese business environment would look like in 2017. Their predictions were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues they were asked to consider. This paper focuses on the one-third of issues about which they were wide of the mark and examine the likely reasons. Findings The predictions of the 2007 study were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues the China experts on the Delphi panel were asked to consider. The reason that they were wide of the mark on about one-third of issues could be attributed to two main factors: the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis and the appointment in 2013 of Xi Jinping as the President of China. These events precipitated changes in direction in the Chinese business environment that had not been (and could not have been) anticipated by the Delphi panel. Originality/value Very few Delphi studies have been subject to a follow-up examination of the accuracy of their predictions. This paper contributes a discussion the various methodologies that firms can use to improve their forecasts of international business environments.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-18T09:24:27Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2017-0080
  • Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight
    • Pages: 635 - 647
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 6, Page 635-647, November 2018.
      Purpose This paper aims to provide an analysis of Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a content analysis of public domain Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise, and a study directed to analyse the impact on defence technological and industrial base. Findings Foresight studies on the defence and security environment uses hybrid methodologies, but rarely involve all the stakeholders, and specially the citizens. The authors place a particular emphasis on the impact of these defence and security foresight studies, and following policies to increase the competitiveness and advanced technologies in the future. The analysis of the Spanish contractors allows an evaluation of the roadmaps as a policy instrument for the industrial defence industry. The main challenges for the next exercises in the European countries are to increase the interest in the firms’ intelligence systems, and the participation and representation of citizens as a way to guarantee their rights. Therefore, a technology roadmap must be complemented with other more participative foresight methods. Originality/value Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have been the subject of very few systematic analyses of impact. This paper makes a contribution to such analysis.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-02T10:08:18Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2017-0074
  • Summarizing the decadal literature in open government data (OGD) research:
           a systematic review
    • Pages: 648 - 664
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 6, Page 648-664, November 2018.
      Purpose This paper aims to summarize the open government data (OGD) research which has been become an increasingly engaging domain for the academic community. Design/methodology/approach Scanning the literature on OGD, the paper underlines the different strands observable in the OGD-based research. The paper concludes with research pointers, limitations and implications for practitioners. Findings OGD has been investigated from different angles, and there is a need for more empirical investigation across contexts. Originality/value The paper serves as a reference point for OGD research.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-02T09:42:31Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-07-2018-0074
  • The use of open government data to citizen empowerment: an empirical
           validation of a proposed model
    • Pages: 665 - 680
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 6, Page 665-680, November 2018.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to measure the impact of open government data (OGD) on citizen empowerment. Design/methodology/approach This study advances the body of knowledge on OGD by proposing an integrated research model based on transparency, accountability, participation and collaboration dimensions. The research model was empirically tested using 275 responses using the on-paper survey from the university students and professionals in Bangladesh. Data were analyzed using the structured equation modeling technique. Findings Findings revealed that transparency and participation have a positive and significant direct and indirect influence on citizen empowerment through accountability and collaboration. Overall, the four basic pillars of OGD such as transparency, participation, accountability and collaboration interrelated with each other and have the impact on citizen empowerment. Research limitations/implications This study has proposed an instrument that sums the dimensions of open government, which avoids tautology and redundancy among OGD dimensions. More research should be done to validate the proposed model and the instruments used in this study. Practical implications For the researchers, this study provides a basis for further refinement of individual models of empowerment. For practitioners, understanding the key constructs is crucial to design, refine and implement OGD systems and applications that empower citizens, create public values and strengthen the democratic process. Originality/value This research is the first step that empirically investigates the impact of OGD on citizen empowerment which is the ultimate goals of any democratic government.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-22T01:01:46Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-03-2018-0027
  • Heuristics versus econometrics as a basis for forecasting international
           inflation differentials
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This study aims to address the issue of prediction of inflation differences for an economy that considers either fixing its exchange rate or joining a currency union. In this setting, individual countries have limited control over their inflation, and anticipating the possible course of domestic inflation relative to inflation abroad becomes an important input in policy-making. In this context, the author compares simple forecast heuristics and econometric modeling. Design/methodology/approach The study compares two basically different approaches. The first approach of forecasting consists of simple heuristics. Various heuristics are considered that differ with respect to the economic reasoning that goes into quantifying the forecast rules. The simplest such forecasting heuristic suggests that the average over all available observations of inflation differentials should be taken as a predictor for the future. Bringing more economic insight to bear suggests a further heuristic according to which historical inflation differentials should be adjusted for changes in the nominal exchange rate. A further variant of this approach suggests that a forecast should exclusively rely on data from earlier times under a pegged exchange rate. A fundamentally different approach to prediction builds on dynamic econometric models estimated by using all available historical data independent of the currency regime. Findings The author studies three small member countries of the Eurozone, i.e. Finland, Luxembourg and Portugal. For the evaluation of the various forecasting strategies, he performs out-of-sample predictions over a horizon of five years. The comparison of the four different forecasting strategies documents that the variant of the forecast heuristic that draws on data from earlier experiences under fixed exchange rates performs better than the forecast based on the estimated econometric model. Practical implications The findings of this study provide helpful guidelines for countries considering either joining a currency union or fixing their exchange rate. The author shows that a simple forecasting heuristic gives sound advice for assessing the likely course of inflation. Originality/value This study describes how economic theory can guide the selection of historical data for assessing likely future developments. The analysis shows that using a simple heuristic based on historical analogy can lead to better forecasts than the analytically more sophisticated approach of econometric modeling.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-12-06T03:32:07Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-07-2018-0070
  • The implications of fiscal decentralization and budget governance on
           economic capacity and community welfare
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between government and Balinese society in tax decentralization through budgeting seem to insignificantly improve the welfare of Balinese society. Design methodology/approach This research was conducted in Bali Province involving eight regencies and one city. The data used in this study were secondary data, derived from relevant institutions or from websites through internet browsing and other documentations in the form of official reports/publications, such as regional budget, accountability reports, regional regulations and documents on budget and development of the regional economy. The present research used the partial least squares analysis technique. Findings Fiscal decentralization does not necessarily lead to better budget management. The success of fiscal decentralization can be found in the quality of the regional budget and the quality of budget management. The allocation of the regional budget for public service improvement and the development of infrastructure will increase the economic capacity of the regions. Improvement in regional economic capacity encourages the improvement of community welfare. Originality/value This income inequality points to the issue of fiscal capacity. The development of the financial role of district/city regions in the Province of Bali remains at a level gap with the development level of community welfare. During this period, the financial role of the government as estimated from the ratio of the national budget to the regional budget is higher than that of the society development. The acceleration role of the government is not proportional to the development of Human Development Index outcomes.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-12-04T02:47:35Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-05-2018-0052
  • Complexity, creeping normalcy and conceit: sexy and unsexy catastrophic
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to consider few cognitive and conceptual obstacles to engagement with global catastrophic risks (GCRs). Design/methodology/approach The paper starts by considering cognitive biases that affect general thinking about GCRs, before questioning whether existential risks really are dramatically more pressing than other GCRs. It then sets out a novel typology of GCRs – sexy vs unsexy risks – before considering a particularly unsexy risk, overpopulation. Findings It is proposed that many risks commonly regarded as existential are “sexy” risks, while certain other GCRs are comparatively “unsexy.” In addition, it is suggested that a combination of complexity, cognitive biases and a hubris-laden failure of imagination leads us to neglect the most unsexy and pervasive of all GCRs: human overpopulation. The paper concludes with a tentative conceptualisation of overpopulation as a pattern of risking. Originality/value The paper proposes and conceptualises two new concepts, sexy and unsexy catastrophic risks, as well as a new conceptualisation of overpopulation as a pattern of risking.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-29T01:00:14Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-05-2018-0047
  • Predicting future AI failures from historic examples
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explain to readers how intelligent systems can fail and how artificial intelligence (AI) safety is different from cybersecurity. The goal of cybersecurity is to reduce the number of successful attacks on the system; the goal of AI Safety is to make sure zero attacks succeed in bypassing the safety mechanisms. Unfortunately, such a level of performance is unachievable. Every security system will eventually fail; there is no such thing as a 100 per cent secure system. Design/methodology/approach AI Safety can be improved based on ideas developed by cybersecurity experts. For narrow AI Safety, failures are at the same, moderate level of criticality as in cybersecurity; however, for general AI, failures have a fundamentally different impact. A single failure of a superintelligent system may cause a catastrophic event without a chance for recovery. Findings In this paper, the authors present and analyze reported failures of artificially intelligent systems and extrapolate our analysis to future AIs. The authors suggest that both the frequency and the seriousness of future AI failures will steadily increase. Originality/value This is a first attempt to assemble a public data set of AI failures and is extremely valuable to AI Safety researchers.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-27T02:28:58Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0034
  • Proposing a total quality management (TQM) model for open government data
           (OGD) initiatives: implications for India
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to advance a total quality management (TQM) model for the open government data (OGD) initiatives undertaken by the governments. As an example, the paper investigates the national OGD portal of India ( and provides implications of the proposed TQM model for the Indian case. Design/methodology/approach The TQM model for the OGD initiatives (16 dimensions in terms of drivers, enablers and results) is derived from the extant literature on the principles of TQM and OGD. The proposed model is used for drawing implications for the Indian OGD initiative. Findings The application of TQM model for the OGD initiative in India would help in quality maintenance and sustainability. The quality of the OGD portal should be improved by taking the TQM model as a point of reference. Practical implications Ensuring quality of the datasets is important for any OGD initiative. The proposed TQM model leaves insights for the practitioners (policymakers and administrators) to implement the TQM model in the OGD policy initiatives. This would lead to increased trust, transparency and accountability. Social implications Through the integration of the TQM model in the OGD initiative of the country, a wider section of the stakeholders may tap the qualitatively advanced datasets for value creation. Citizen participation and engagement would increase with the integration of the TQM model in the OGD initiative. Originality/value While management of quality in the OGD initiatives has been underlined in the extant OGD-focused literature, the utility of applying TQM principles in OGD initiatives has not been conceived so far. The present study seeks to contribute towards the extant literature on TQM and OGD with the identification of the TQM model for the OGD initiatives.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-22T03:39:42Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-07-2018-0073
  • Post termination interaction in international joint ventures (IJV)
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to explore dynamics of post termination interaction between international joint venture (IJV) partners and empirically examines IJV level and dyad level factors that influence the choice of post IJV termination interaction as supplier, complement or competitor. Design/methodology/approach In-depth literature review is undertaken to identify IJV and dyad level that could influence the choice of post termination interaction between terminated IJV partners. Hypotheses are empirically validated using multinomial logistic regression on data collected on terminated IJV headquartered in India. Findings The results denote that the choice of post-IJV termination interaction between IJV partners as supplier, complement or competitor is influenced by interdependence, bargaining power, foreign partner’s purpose of IJV, complementarity and type of IJV termination. Research limitations/implications This paper explores an under researched area in extant IJV literature that could be taken up for study by academicians. The paper upholds and strengthens the dynamic capabilities view of strategic management in IJV context. Practical implications This paper examines a practice adopted by businesses in emerging markets and determines important factors that influence the choice of interaction post IJV termination between partners. Practitioners will be encouraged to understand and plan post termination dynamics with their terminated IJV partner. Originality/value The paper undertakes examination of a practical business phenomena, i.e. interaction post termination between terminated IJV partners.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-13T03:05:28Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-03-2018-0022
  • Is sustainability a motive to buy' An exploratory study in the context
           of mobile applications channel among young Indian consumers
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose Consumers shopping motives may differ across products/services categories, retail formats and channels. In the context of m-Apps-based commerce, this study aims to explore different shopping motives of consumers in three different categories of app, namely, food delivery, ride sourcing and digital payments. Using motivation literature, the study extends the theory of consumer motives by including sustainability as a key motive to buy in the context of m-App channel. Further, the authors undertake a comparative analysis of the identified motives across the three mobile applications (m-Apps). Design methodology/approach The research methodology involved two stages (qualitative research followed by quantitative research). In qualitative research, personal interview was conducted to extract items for survey questionnaire development. Subsequently, quantitative analysis was carried out. The data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The study sample comprised 201 young Indian managers. Findings Using principal component analysis and CFA, the study validates the existence of different motivations in the three categories of m-Apps considered. Transaction-oriented and sustainability-oriented motivation is found to be a major motive to use m-Apps for food delivery, ride sourcing and mobile payments. Additionally, in digital wallet applications for mobile payments, consumers exhibit innovation-oriented motivation. Value-oriented motivation was identified as a motive in food delivery apps. Research limitations/implications The scale developed and the comparative study done extended the theoretical conversation on young consumer motives in the context of m-Apps channel and extended it by including sustainability motive, which needs further in-depth study. Originality/value This is one of the first studies to explore sustainability motives in the context of m-Apps channel.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-02T09:45:52Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-05-2018-0048
  • There is plenty of time at the bottom: the economics, risk and ethics of
           time compression
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The speed of computing and other automated processes plays an important role in how the world functions by causing “time compression”. This paper aims to review reasons to believe computation will continue to become faster in the future, the economic consequences of speedups and how these affect risk, ethics and governance. Design/methodology/approach A brief review of science and trends followed by an analysis of consequences. Findings Current computation is far from the physical limits in terms of processing speed. Algorithmic improvements may be equally powerful but cannot easily be predicted or bounded. Communication and sensing is already at the physical speed limits, although improvements in bandwidth will likely be significant. The value in these speedups lies in productivity gains, timeliness, early arrival of results and cybernetic feedback shifts. However, time compression can lead to loss of control owing to inability to track fast change, emergent or systemic risk and asynchrony. Speedups can also exacerbate inequalities between different agents and reduce safety if there are competitive pressures. Fast decisions are potentially not better decisions, as they may be made on little data. Social implications The impact on society and the challenge to governance are likely to be profound, requiring adapting new methods for managing fast-moving and technological risks. Originality/value The speed with which events happen is an important aspect of foresight, not just as a subject of prediction or analysis, but also as a driver of the kinds of dynamics that are possible.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T01:38:09Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0044
  • Facing disaster: the great challenges framework
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper provides a detailed survey of the greatest dangers facing humanity this century. It argues that there are three broad classes of risks – the “Great Challenges” – that deserve our immediate attention, namely, environmental degradation, which includes climate change and global biodiversity loss; the distribution of unprecedented destructive capabilities across society by dual-use emerging technologies; and value-misaligned algorithms that exceed human-level intelligence in every cognitive domain. After examining each of these challenges, the paper then outlines a handful of additional issues that are relevant to understanding our existential predicament and could complicate attempts to overcome the Great Challenges. The central aim of this paper is to constitute an authoritative resource, insofar as this is possible in a scholarly journal, for scholars who are working on or interested in existential risks. In the author’s view, this is precisely the sort of big-picture analysis that humanity needs more of, if we wish to navigate the obstacle course of existential dangers before us. Design/methodology/approach Comprehensive literature survey that culminates in a novel theoretical framework for thinking about global-scale risks. Findings If humanity wishes to survive and prosper in the coming centuries, then we must overcome three Great Challenges, each of which is sufficient to cause a significant loss of expected value in the future. Originality/value The Great Challenges framework offers a novel scheme that highlights the most pressing global-scale risks to human survival and prosperity. The author argues that the “big-picture” approach of this paper exemplifies the sort of scholarship that humanity needs more of to properly understand the various existential hazards that are unique to the twenty-first century.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T01:38:07Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0040
  • Challenges to the Omohundro–Bostrom framework for AI motivations
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence (AI) breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro–Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals. Does that theory, along with its predictions for what a superintelligent AI would be motivated to do, hold water' Design/methodology/approach The standard tools of systematic reasoning and analytic philosophy are used to probe possible weaknesses of Omohundro–Bostrom theory from four different directions: self-referential contradictions, Tegmark’s physics challenge, moral realism and the messy case of human motivations. Findings The two cornerstones of Omohundro–Bostrom theory – the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis – are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. These criticisms are however far from conclusive: while they do suggest that a reasonable amount of caution and epistemic humility is attached to predictions derived from the theory, further work will be needed to clarify its scope and to put it on more rigorous foundations. Originality/value The practical value of being able to predict AI goals and motivations under various circumstances cannot be overstated: the future of humanity may depend on it. Currently, the only framework available for making such predictions is Omohundro–Bostrom theory, and the value of the present paper is to demonstrate its tentative nature and the need for further scrutiny.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-25T10:11:06Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0039
  • When two existential risks are better than one
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The great filter and an unfriendly artificial general intelligence might pose existential risks to humanity, but these two risks are anti-correlated. The purpose of this paper is to consider the implications of having evidence that mankind is at significant peril from both these risks. Design/methodology/approach This paper creates Bayesian models under which one might get evidence for being at risk for two perils when we know that we are at risk for at most one of these perils. Findings Humanity should possibly be more optimistic about its long-term survival if we have convincing evidence for believing that both these risks are real than if we have such evidence for thinking that only one of these perils would likely strike us. Originality/value Deriving implications of being greatly concerned about both an unfriendly artificial general intelligence and the great filter.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-11T02:29:48Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0038
  • The intelligence explosion revisited
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The claim that super intelligent machines constitute a major existential risk was recently defended in Nick Bostrom’s book Superintelligence and forms the basis of the sub-discipline AI risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically assess the philosophical assumptions that are of importance to the argument that AI could pose an existential risk and if so, the character of that risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper distinguishes between “intelligence” or the cognitive capacity of an individual and “techne”, a more general ability to solve problems using, for example, technological artifacts. While human intelligence has not changed much over historical time, human techne has improved considerably. Moreover, the fact that human techne has more variance across individuals than human intelligence suggests that if machine techne were to surpass human techne, the transition is likely going to be prolonged rather than explosive. Findings Some constraints for the intelligence explosion scenario are presented that imply that AI could be controlled by human organizations. Originality/value If true, this argument suggests that efforts should focus on devising strategies to control AI rather strategies that assume that such control is impossible.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-08T10:35:19Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0042
  • Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose Islands have long been discussed as refuges from global catastrophes; this paper will evaluate them systematically, discussing both the positives and negatives of islands as refuges. There are examples of isolated human communities surviving for thousands of years on places like Easter Island. Islands could provide protection against many low-level risks, notably including bio-risks. However, they are vulnerable to tsunamis, bird-transmitted diseases and other risks. This paper aims to explore how to use the advantages of islands for survival during global catastrophes. Design/methodology/approach Preliminary horizon scanning based on the application of the research principles established in the previous global catastrophic literature. Findings The large number of islands on Earth, and their diverse conditions, increase the chance that one of them will provide protection from a catastrophe. Additionally, this protection could be increased if an island was used as a base for a nuclear submarine refuge combined with underground bunkers and/or extremely long-term data storage. The requirements for survival on islands, their vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate and adapt to risks are explored. Several existing islands, suitable for the survival of different types of risk, timing and budgets, are examined. Islands suitable for different types of refuges and other island-like options that could also provide protection are also discussed. Originality/value The possible use of islands as refuges from social collapse and existential risks has not been previously examined systematically. This paper contributes to the expanding research on survival scenarios.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-09-05T10:32:11Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0031
  • Food without sun: price and life-saving potential
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this study is to estimate the price and life-saving potential of alternate foods. The sun could be blocked by asteroid impact, supervolcanic eruption or nuclear winter caused by burning of cities during a nuclear war. The primary problem in these scenarios is loss of food production. Previous work has shown that alternate foods not dependent on sunlight, such as bacteria grown on natural gas and cellulose turned into sugar enzymatically, could feed everyone in these catastrophes, and preparation for these foods would save lives in a manner that is highly cost-effective. Design/methodology/approach This study estimates the price of alternate foods during a catastrophe in line with global trade and information sharing, but factors such as migration, loans, aid or conflict are not taken into consideration. Findings Without alternate foods, for a five-year winter, only approximately 10 per cent of the population would survive. The price of dry food would rise to approximately $100/kg, and the expenditure on this food would be approximately $100tn. If alternate foods were $8/kg, the surviving global population increases to approximately 70 per cent, saving>4billion lives. Research limitations/implications A nongovernmental mechanism for coordinating the investments of rich people may be possible. Identifying companies whose interests align with alternate food preparations may save lives at a negative cost. Practical implications The probability of loss of civilization and its impact on future generations would be lower in this scenario, and the total expenditure on food would be halved. Originality/value Preparation for alternate foods is a good investment even for wealthy people who would survive without alternate foods.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-08-20T10:35:56Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0041
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