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Publisher: Emerald   (Total: 344 journals)

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Showing 1 - 200 of 344 Journals sorted alphabetically
A Life in the Day     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administración     Open Access   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.178, CiteScore: 1)
Accounting Auditing & Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32, SJR: 1.71, CiteScore: 3)
Accounting Research J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.144, CiteScore: 0)
Accounting, Auditing and Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 2.187, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Accounting Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.279, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Appreciative Inquiry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.451, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Autism     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Dual Diagnosis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 47, SJR: 0.21, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Gender Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.16, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Intl. Marketing     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6)
Advances in Mental Health and Intellectual Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 73, SJR: 0.296, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Mental Health and Learning Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
African J. of Economic and Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.216, CiteScore: 1)
Agricultural Finance Review     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.406, CiteScore: 1)
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 201, SJR: 0.354, CiteScore: 1)
American J. of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Annals in Social Responsibility     Full-text available via subscription  
Anti-Corrosion Methods and Materials     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.235, CiteScore: 1)
Arts and the Market     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Asia Pacific J. of Innovation and Entrepreneurship     Open Access  
Asia Pacific J. of Marketing and Logistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.425, CiteScore: 1)
Asia-Pacific J. of Business Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.234, CiteScore: 1)
Asian Association of Open Universities J.     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Asian Education and Development Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.233, CiteScore: 1)
Asian J. on Quality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Asian Review of Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 1)
Aslib J. of Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.725, CiteScore: 2)
Aslib Proceedings     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 299)
Assembly Automation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.603, CiteScore: 2)
Baltic J. of Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.309, CiteScore: 1)
Benchmarking : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.559, CiteScore: 2)
British Food J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.5, CiteScore: 2)
Built Environment Project and Asset Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.46, CiteScore: 1)
Business Process Re-engineering & Management J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Business Strategy Series     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Career Development Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.527, CiteScore: 2)
China Agricultural Economic Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.31, CiteScore: 1)
China Finance Review Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.245, CiteScore: 0)
Chinese Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.278, CiteScore: 1)
Circuit World     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.246, CiteScore: 1)
Collection Building     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.296, CiteScore: 1)
COMPEL: The Intl. J. for Computation and Mathematics in Electrical and Electronic Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.22, CiteScore: 1)
Competitiveness Review : An Intl. Business J. incorporating J. of Global Competitiveness     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.274, CiteScore: 1)
Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.731, CiteScore: 2)
Corporate Communications An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.453, CiteScore: 1)
Corporate Governance Intl. J. of Business in Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.336, CiteScore: 1)
Critical Perspectives on Intl. Business     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.378, CiteScore: 1)
Cross Cultural & Strategic Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.504, CiteScore: 2)
Development and Learning in Organizations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.138, CiteScore: 0)
Digital Library Perspectives     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.341, CiteScore: 1)
Direct Marketing An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Disaster Prevention and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21, SJR: 0.47, CiteScore: 1)
Drugs and Alcohol Today     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 134, SJR: 0.245, CiteScore: 1)
Education + Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Education, Business and Society : Contemporary Middle Eastern Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 1.707, CiteScore: 3)
Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Employee Relations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.551, CiteScore: 2)
Engineering Computations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.444, CiteScore: 1)
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.653, CiteScore: 2)
English Teaching: Practice & Critique     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.417, CiteScore: 1)
Equal Opportunities Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Equality, Diversity and Inclusion : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.5, CiteScore: 1)
EuroMed J. of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.26, CiteScore: 1)
European Business Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.585, CiteScore: 3)
European J. of Innovation Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 0.454, CiteScore: 2)
European J. of Management and Business Economics     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.239, CiteScore: 1)
European J. of Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21, SJR: 0.971, CiteScore: 2)
European J. of Training and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 0.477, CiteScore: 1)
Evidence-based HRM     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.537, CiteScore: 1)
Facilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.503, CiteScore: 2)
Foresight     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.34, CiteScore: 1)
Gender in Management : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.412, CiteScore: 1)
Grey Systems : Theory and Application     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Health Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.421, CiteScore: 1)
Higher Education, Skills and Work-based Learning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 47, SJR: 0.426, CiteScore: 1)
History of Education Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.26, CiteScore: 0)
Housing, Care and Support     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.171, CiteScore: 0)
Human Resource Management Intl. Digest     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.129, CiteScore: 0)
Humanomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.333, CiteScore: 1)
IMP J.     Hybrid Journal  
Indian Growth and Development Review     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.174, CiteScore: 0)
Industrial and Commercial Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.301, CiteScore: 1)
Industrial Lubrication and Tribology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.334, CiteScore: 1)
Industrial Management & Data Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.904, CiteScore: 3)
Industrial Robot An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.318, CiteScore: 1)
Info     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Information and Computer Security     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22, SJR: 0.307, CiteScore: 1)
Information Technology & People     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45, SJR: 0.671, CiteScore: 2)
Innovation & Management Review     Open Access  
Interactive Technology and Smart Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.191, CiteScore: 1)
Interlending & Document Supply     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 61)
Internet Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 37, SJR: 1.645, CiteScore: 5)
Intl. J. for Lesson and Learning Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.324, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. for Researcher Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Intl. J. of Accounting and Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.275, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Bank Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.654, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.353, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Clothing Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.318, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Commerce and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Conflict Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.362, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Contemporary Hospitality Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 1.452, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. of Culture Tourism and Hospitality Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.339, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Development Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.139, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.387, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Educational Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.559, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Emergency Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.201, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Emerging Markets     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.474, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Energy Sector Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.349, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.629, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Event and Festival Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.388, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Gender and Entrepreneurship     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.445, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Health Care Quality Assurance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.358, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Health Governance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 0.247, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Housing Markets and Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.211, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Human Rights in Healthcare     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.205, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Information and Learning Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.226, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Innovation Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.197, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.214, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Intelligent Unmanned Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Intl. J. of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.375, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Law and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.217, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Law in the Built Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.227, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Leadership in Public Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Intl. J. of Lean Six Sigma     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.802, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Logistics Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.71, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Managerial Finance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.203, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Managing Projects in Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.36, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Manpower     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.365, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Mentoring and Coaching in Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.426, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Migration, Health and Social Care     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.307, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.697, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Operations & Production Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19, SJR: 2.052, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. of Organizational Analysis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.268, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Pervasive Computing and Communications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.138, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.25, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 1.821, CiteScore: 4)
Intl. J. of Prisoner Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.303, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Productivity and Performance Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.578, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Public Sector Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30, SJR: 0.438, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Quality & Reliability Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.492, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Quality and Service Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.309, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Retail & Distribution Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.742, CiteScore: 3)
Intl. J. of Service Industry Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Social Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.225, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Sociology and Social Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 50, SJR: 0.3, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Sports Marketing and Sponsorship     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.269, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Structural Integrity     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.228, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Sustainability in Higher Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.502, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Tourism Cities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.502, CiteScore: 0)
Intl. J. of Web Information Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.186, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. J. of Wine Business Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.562, CiteScore: 2)
Intl. J. of Workplace Health Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.303, CiteScore: 1)
Intl. Marketing Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.895, CiteScore: 3)
Irish J. of Occupational Therapy     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
ISRA Intl. J. of Islamic Finance     Open Access  
J. for Multicultural Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.237, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Accounting & Organizational Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.301, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Accounting in Emerging Economies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
J. of Adult Protection, The     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.314, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Advances in Management Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
J. of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44, SJR: 0.222, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.108, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Applied Accounting Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.227, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Applied Research in Higher Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 49, SJR: 0.2, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Asia Business Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.245, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Assistive Technologies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
J. of Business & Industrial Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.652, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Business Strategy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.333, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Centrum Cathedra     Open Access  
J. of Children's Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.243, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.2, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Chinese Entrepreneurship     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
J. of Chinese Human Resource Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.173, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Communication Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.625, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Consumer Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19, SJR: 0.664, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Corporate Real Estate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.368, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Criminal Psychology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 129, SJR: 0.268, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Criminological Research, Policy and Practice     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43, SJR: 0.254, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Cultural Heritage Management and Sustainable Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.257, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Documentation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 184, SJR: 0.613, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Economic and Administrative Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
J. of Economic Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.733, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.217, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Educational Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 1.252, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Enabling Technologies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.369, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Engineering, Design and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.212, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Enterprise Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.827, CiteScore: 4)
J. of Enterprising Communities People and Places in the Global Economy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.281, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.262, CiteScore: 1)
J. of European Industrial Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
J. of European Real Estate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.268, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Facilities Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.33, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Family Business Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
J. of Fashion Marketing and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.608, CiteScore: 2)
J. of Financial Crime     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 372, SJR: 0.228, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Financial Economic Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.186, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Financial Management of Property and Construction     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.309, CiteScore: 1)
J. of Financial Regulation and Compliance     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.159, CiteScore: 0)
J. of Financial Reporting and Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)

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Journal Cover
Foresight
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.34
Citation Impact (citeScore): 1
Number of Followers: 7  
 
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1463-6689
Published by Emerald Homepage  [344 journals]
  • Behavioural response patterns: an investigation of the early stages of
           major incidents
    • Pages: 337 - 352
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 337-352, August 2018.
      Purpose This paper aims to investigate the different patterns of organizational behavioural responses to major incidents and develop an original classification of these patterns. Design/methodology/approach An extensive literature review was made to investigate the different patterns of behavioural responses to major incidents and then to develop an original classification of these patterns. Several sources of information, such as case studies, technical reports, academic journal articles and organizational internal reports were used. Findings Organizations respond differently to major incidents. This was clear from the different behavioural patterns investigated and identified. Behavioural patterns determine levels of resilience and ability of organizations to overcome and ultimately survive major incidents. Practical implications To promote effective and organized behavioural response patterns to major incidents and improve consistency of responses across the organization, relevant authorities should demonstrate to all private and public enterprises the significance of effective behavioural responses, thus enabling them to better respond to various potential emergencies. Originality/value A number of models of human behaviour have been introduced in the literature to understand how people respond to emergency situations. They each take a different perspective on human behaviour but no single theory has emerged as the leading paradigm. This highlights the complexity of understanding human behaviour in such situations and the need for a better classification of behavioural patterns. To the author’s knowledge, this is one of very few studies to investigate, identify and categorize behavioural response patterns to major incidents. This research is expected to be of a substantial value for those interested in improving organizational behaviour during major incidents, as well as those interested in improving organizational resilience.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-08-10T01:55:14Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2017-0073
       
  • Foresight of cyber security threat drivers and affecting technologies
    • Pages: 353 - 363
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 353-363, August 2018.
      Purpose The cyber security industry emerged rapidly in recent years due to mounting cyber threats and increasing cyber hacking activities. Research on emerging technologies emphasizes the risks and sometimes neglects to address the potential positive contribution to cyber security. The purpose of this study is to conduct a relatively balanced long-term foresight study to elicit major significant threat drivers and to identify emerging technologies that are likely to have a significant impact on defense and attack capabilities in cyber security. Design/methodology/approach The main instruments used in this study were horizon scanning and an online survey among subject-matter experts that assessed emerging threats and the potential impact of several emerging technologies on cyber defense capabilities and cyber attack capabilities. Findings An expert survey shows that cyber resilience, homomorphic encryption and blockchain may be considered as technologies contributing mainly to defense capabilities. On the other hand, Internet of Things, biohacking and human machine interface (HMI) and autonomous technologies add mainly to attack capabilities. In the middle, we find autonomous technologies, quantum computing and artificial intelligence that contribute to defense, as well as to attack capabilities, with roughly similar impact on both. Originality/value This study adds to the current research a balanced long-term view and experts’ assessment of negative and positive impacts of emerging technologies, including their time to maturity and consensus levels. Two new Likert scale measures were applied to measure the potential impact of emerging technologies on cyber security, thus enabling the classification of the results into four groups (net positive, net negative, positive-positive and negative-negative).
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-08-23T08:05:00Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-02-2018-0020
       
  • Analyzing prediction market trading behaviour to select Delphi-experts
    • Pages: 364 - 374
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 364-374, August 2018.
      Purpose The selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study. Design/methodology/approach Based on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees. Findings The paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and the market maker attribute seem to predict informed traders the best. Originality/value Algorithms based on identified attributes can be used to objectify the selection of experts for Delphi studies with potential gains in terms of the amount of information considered.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-08-07T10:32:23Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-01-2018-0009
       
  • Manager’s report: organizational culture & strategy association
    • Pages: 375 - 392
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 375-392, August 2018.
      Purpose Strategy and organizational culture are indispensable for success within a business. Both behavioral scientists and practitioners have shown keen interest in understanding the association between culture and strategy; however, no strong consensus has been formed about this relationship. This paper aims to shed light on this relationship by answering the following questions: Is organizational culture separable from its strategies' Is there an association between organizational culture and strategy' Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of 496 service managers, this study empirically examines the relationship between culture and strategy. Due to the nature of the data, cross-tabulation research method was used for analysis and to check the association between organizational culture and strategy. Findings Results indicate that successful firms with a bureaucratic and innovative culture may demonstrate any of the four examined strategies (command, rational, transactive and generative). The results also suggest that successful firms with a supportive culture will likely use a transactive or generative strategy. Overall, the results found that all four strategies are associated with each of the three corporate cultures, except for the supportive culture-command strategy and supportive culture-rational strategy dyads. Originality/value There are diverse views about the organizational culture-strategy relationship; however, no strong consensus has been formed about this relationship. Using managerial data collected from service industry, this study examines the relationship between three organizational cultures, namely, bureaucratic, supportive and innovative, and four different types of strategies, namely, specially command, rational, transactive and generative.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-09-19T10:43:16Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-02-2018-0015
       
  • The futures of the University of Tehran using causal layered analysis
    • Pages: 393 - 415
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 393-415, August 2018.
      Purpose Higher education and universities have faced unprecedented and ubiquitous changes. The University of Tehran or “UT,” as the leading university in Iran, is not immune to these changes. The purposes of this study is to investigate the current situation and future of the UT and gain insights and possible responses to changes that suit its strengths and potential to progress in an increasingly competitive, complex environment with uncertainties. It identifies deep fundamental underpinnings of the issue and highlights them for policymakers to formulate strategies and future vision of the UT. Design/methodology/approach Causal layered analysis (CLA) was applied as a framework and the data collected from different sources such as literature reviews, content analysis of rules, regulations and master plans of the university and coded interviews of four different groups of university stakeholders were analyzed. The current system of UT, as well as hidden beliefs, that maintains traditional perceptions about university was mapped. Next, by applying a new recursive process and reverse CLA order, new CLA layers extracted through an expert panel, the layers of CLA based on new metaphors to envision future of UT were backcasted. Findings The results from CLA layers including litany, system, worldview and metaphor about the current statue of UT show disinterest and inertia against changes, conservative, behind the times and traditional perceptions, and indicate that the UT system is mismatched to the needs of society and stakeholders in the future. The authors articulated alternative perspectives deconstructed from other worldviews so there are new narratives that reframe the issues at hand. The results show that to survive in this fast-paced revolution and competition in higher education, UT should develop scenarios and formulate new strategies. Research limitations/implications The authors had limited access to a wide range of stakeholders. As the UT is a very big university with so many faculties and departments, to access a pool of experts and top policymakers who were so busy and did not have time to interview inside and outside of university was very hard for the research team. The authors also had limitation to access the internal enactments and decisions of the trustee board of the UT and the financial balance sheets of the university. Originality/value In this paper, by mixing different methods of futures studies, the authors have shown how to move forward while understanding the perspectives of stakeholders about the future of UT by a new recursive process and reverse CLA order. A supplementary phase was added to improve CLA and to validate the method and results, which were ignored in previous studies.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-15T02:51:03Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-01-2018-0001
       
  • Measuring technological level of organisations: methodological approaches
           and assessment
    • Pages: 416 - 442
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 416-442, August 2018.
      Purpose The paper aims to present the results of the first Russian pilot study on technological level of organisations upon the answers of 2,500 respondents out of nine sectors of economy to a broad specialised questionnaire. The purpose of the study is to assess the technological level of organisations on the basis of qualitative information that comprehensively reflects its most important characteristics, as well as identify factors that affect the technological level of production. Design/methodology/approach It offers a look at which methodological approaches were developed and what the survey shows on characteristics of the application of technology (the scope and extent of the application, level of technology, the problems solved by applying specific types of technology) and the application of intellectual property rights. Findings The paper also highlights some interesting findings that suggest that the majority of national organisations tend to pursue technological self-sufficiency strategies and quite a large part of them are not active in either domestic or foreign Science & Tecnology markets. Originality/value An originality lies in the proposed methodological approaches of the study, in the selected indicators of progressivity and the scale of application of technology related to the level of production capacities of the surveyed medium and large enterprises and organisations. This identifies significant incentives for organisations to increase their technology level as well as competitive advantages for the respondents themselves and for their competitors.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-08-07T11:29:31Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-03-2018-0026
       
  • Two fine additions to the futures literature
    • Pages: 443 - 446
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 443-446, August 2018.

      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T09:07:59Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-08-2018-098
       
  • Supply chain finance and blockchain technology – the case of reverse
           securitisation
    • Pages: 447 - 448
      Abstract: Foresight, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 447-448, August 2018.

      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T09:08:00Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-08-2018-099
       
  • Post termination interaction in international joint ventures (IJV)
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to explore dynamics of post termination interaction between international joint venture (IJV) partners and empirically examines IJV level and dyad level factors that influence the choice of post IJV termination interaction as supplier, complement or competitor. Design/methodology/approach In-depth literature review is undertaken to identify IJV and dyad level that could influence the choice of post termination interaction between terminated IJV partners. Hypotheses are empirically validated using multinomial logistic regression on data collected on terminated IJV headquartered in India. Findings The results denote that the choice of post-IJV termination interaction between IJV partners as supplier, complement or competitor is influenced by interdependence, bargaining power, foreign partner’s purpose of IJV, complementarity and type of IJV termination. Research limitations/implications This paper explores an under researched area in extant IJV literature that could be taken up for study by academicians. The paper upholds and strengthens the dynamic capabilities view of strategic management in IJV context. Practical implications This paper examines a practice adopted by businesses in emerging markets and determines important factors that influence the choice of interaction post IJV termination between partners. Practitioners will be encouraged to understand and plan post termination dynamics with their terminated IJV partner. Originality/value The paper undertakes examination of a practical business phenomena, i.e. interaction post termination between terminated IJV partners.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-13T03:05:28Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-03-2018-0022
       
  • Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to provide an analysis of Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a content analysis of public domain Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise, and a study directed to analyse the impact on defence technological and industrial base. Findings Foresight studies on the defence and security environment uses hybrid methodologies, but rarely involve all the stakeholders, and specially the citizens. The authors place a particular emphasis on the impact of these defence and security foresight studies, and following policies to increase the competitiveness and advanced technologies in the future. The analysis of the Spanish contractors allows an evaluation of the roadmaps as a policy instrument for the industrial defence industry. The main challenges for the next exercises in the European countries are to increase the interest in the firms’ intelligence systems, and the participation and representation of citizens as a way to guarantee their rights. Therefore, a technology roadmap must be complemented with other more participative foresight methods. Originality/value Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have been the subject of very few systematic analyses of impact. This paper makes a contribution to such analysis.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-02T10:08:18Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2017-0074
       
  • Is sustainability a motive to buy' An exploratory study in the context
           of mobile applications channel among young Indian consumers
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose Consumers shopping motives may differ across products/services categories, retail formats and channels. In the context of m-Apps-based commerce, this study aims to explore different shopping motives of consumers in three different categories of app, namely, food delivery, ride sourcing and digital payments. Using motivation literature, the study extends the theory of consumer motives by including sustainability as a key motive to buy in the context of m-App channel. Further, the authors undertake a comparative analysis of the identified motives across the three mobile applications (m-Apps). Design methodology/approach The research methodology involved two stages (qualitative research followed by quantitative research). In qualitative research, personal interview was conducted to extract items for survey questionnaire development. Subsequently, quantitative analysis was carried out. The data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The study sample comprised 201 young Indian managers. Findings Using principal component analysis and CFA, the study validates the existence of different motivations in the three categories of m-Apps considered. Transaction-oriented and sustainability-oriented motivation is found to be a major motive to use m-Apps for food delivery, ride sourcing and mobile payments. Additionally, in digital wallet applications for mobile payments, consumers exhibit innovation-oriented motivation. Value-oriented motivation was identified as a motive in food delivery apps. Research limitations/implications The scale developed and the comparative study done extended the theoretical conversation on young consumer motives in the context of m-Apps channel and extended it by including sustainability motive, which needs further in-depth study. Originality/value This is one of the first studies to explore sustainability motives in the context of m-Apps channel.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-02T09:45:52Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-05-2018-0048
       
  • Summarizing the decadal literature in open government data (OGD) research:
           a systematic review
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to summarize the open government data (OGD) research which has been become an increasingly engaging domain for the academic community. Design/methodology/approach Scanning the literature on OGD, the paper underlines the different strands observable in the OGD-based research. The paper concludes with research pointers, limitations and implications for practitioners. Findings OGD has been investigated from different angles, and there is a need for more empirical investigation across contexts. Originality/value The paper serves as a reference point for OGD research.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-11-02T09:42:31Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-07-2018-0074
       
  • There is plenty of time at the bottom: the economics, risk and ethics of
           time compression
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The speed of computing and other automated processes plays an important role in how the world functions by causing “time compression”. This paper aims to review reasons to believe computation will continue to become faster in the future, the economic consequences of speedups and how these affect risk, ethics and governance. Design/methodology/approach A brief review of science and trends followed by an analysis of consequences. Findings Current computation is far from the physical limits in terms of processing speed. Algorithmic improvements may be equally powerful but cannot easily be predicted or bounded. Communication and sensing is already at the physical speed limits, although improvements in bandwidth will likely be significant. The value in these speedups lies in productivity gains, timeliness, early arrival of results and cybernetic feedback shifts. However, time compression can lead to loss of control owing to inability to track fast change, emergent or systemic risk and asynchrony. Speedups can also exacerbate inequalities between different agents and reduce safety if there are competitive pressures. Fast decisions are potentially not better decisions, as they may be made on little data. Social implications The impact on society and the challenge to governance are likely to be profound, requiring adapting new methods for managing fast-moving and technological risks. Originality/value The speed with which events happen is an important aspect of foresight, not just as a subject of prediction or analysis, but also as a driver of the kinds of dynamics that are possible.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T01:38:09Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0044
       
  • Facing disaster: the great challenges framework
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper provides a detailed survey of the greatest dangers facing humanity this century. It argues that there are three broad classes of risks – the “Great Challenges” – that deserve our immediate attention, namely, environmental degradation, which includes climate change and global biodiversity loss; the distribution of unprecedented destructive capabilities across society by dual-use emerging technologies; and value-misaligned algorithms that exceed human-level intelligence in every cognitive domain. After examining each of these challenges, the paper then outlines a handful of additional issues that are relevant to understanding our existential predicament and could complicate attempts to overcome the Great Challenges. The central aim of this paper is to constitute an authoritative resource, insofar as this is possible in a scholarly journal, for scholars who are working on or interested in existential risks. In the author’s view, this is precisely the sort of big-picture analysis that humanity needs more of, if we wish to navigate the obstacle course of existential dangers before us. Design/methodology/approach Comprehensive literature survey that culminates in a novel theoretical framework for thinking about global-scale risks. Findings If humanity wishes to survive and prosper in the coming centuries, then we must overcome three Great Challenges, each of which is sufficient to cause a significant loss of expected value in the future. Originality/value The Great Challenges framework offers a novel scheme that highlights the most pressing global-scale risks to human survival and prosperity. The author argues that the “big-picture” approach of this paper exemplifies the sort of scholarship that humanity needs more of to properly understand the various existential hazards that are unique to the twenty-first century.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T01:38:07Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0040
       
  • Towards personalized medicine: the evolution of imperceptible health-care
           technologies
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose When wearable and implantable devices first arose in the 1970s, they were rigid and clashed dramatically with our soft, pliable skin and organs. The past two decades have witnessed a major upheaval in these devices. Traditional electronics are six orders of magnitude stiffer than soft tissue. As a result, when rigid electronics are integrated with the human body, severe challenges in both mechanical and geometrical form mismatch occur. This mismatch creates an uneven contact at the interface of soft-tissue, leading to noisy and unreliable data gathering of the body’s vital signs. This paper aims to predict the role that discreet, seamless medical devices will play in personalized health care by discussing novel solutions for alleviating this interface mismatch and exploring the challenges in developing and commercializing such devices. Design methodology/approach Since the form factors of biology cannot be changed to match those of rigid devices, conformable devices that mimic the shape and mechanical properties of soft body tissue must be designed and fabricated. These conformable devices play the role of imperceptible medical interfaces. Such interfaces can help scientists and medical practitioners to gain further insights into the body by providing an accurate and reliable instrument that can conform closely to the target areas of interest for continuous, long-term monitoring of the human body, while improving user experience. Findings The authors have highlighted current attempts of mechanically adaptive devices for health care, and the authors forecast key aspects for the future of these conformable biomedical devices and the ways in which these devices will revolutionize how health care is administered or obtained. Originality/value The authors conclude this paper with the perspective on the challenges of implementing this technology for practical use, including device packaging, environmental life cycle, data privacy, industry partnership and collaboration.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-30T01:35:46Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-08-2018-0075
       
  • Challenges to the Omohundro–Bostrom framework for AI motivations
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence (AI) breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro–Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals. Does that theory, along with its predictions for what a superintelligent AI would be motivated to do, hold water' Design/methodology/approach The standard tools of systematic reasoning and analytic philosophy are used to probe possible weaknesses of Omohundro–Bostrom theory from four different directions: self-referential contradictions, Tegmark’s physics challenge, moral realism and the messy case of human motivations. Findings The two cornerstones of Omohundro–Bostrom theory – the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis – are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. These criticisms are however far from conclusive: while they do suggest that a reasonable amount of caution and epistemic humility is attached to predictions derived from the theory, further work will be needed to clarify its scope and to put it on more rigorous foundations. Originality/value The practical value of being able to predict AI goals and motivations under various circumstances cannot be overstated: the future of humanity may depend on it. Currently, the only framework available for making such predictions is Omohundro–Bostrom theory, and the value of the present paper is to demonstrate its tentative nature and the need for further scrutiny.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-25T10:11:06Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0039
       
  • The use of open government data to citizen empowerment: an empirical
           validation of a proposed model
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to measure the impact of open government data (OGD) on citizen empowerment. Design/methodology/approach This study advances the body of knowledge on OGD by proposing an integrated research model based on transparency, accountability, participation and collaboration dimensions. The research model was empirically tested using 275 responses using the on-paper survey from the university students and professionals in Bangladesh. Data were analyzed using the structured equation modeling technique. Findings Findings revealed that transparency and participation have a positive and significant direct and indirect influence on citizen empowerment through accountability and collaboration. Overall, the four basic pillars of OGD such as transparency, participation, accountability and collaboration interrelated with each other and have the impact on citizen empowerment. Research limitations/implications This study has proposed an instrument that sums the dimensions of open government, which avoids tautology and redundancy among OGD dimensions. More research should be done to validate the proposed model and the instruments used in this study. Practical implications For the researchers, this study provides a basis for further refinement of individual models of empowerment. For practitioners, understanding the key constructs is crucial to design, refine and implement OGD systems and applications that empower citizens, create public values and strengthen the democratic process. Originality/value This research is the first step that empirically investigates the impact of OGD on citizen empowerment which is the ultimate goals of any democratic government.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-22T01:01:46Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-03-2018-0027
       
  • Scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: requirements, benefits and
           inhibitors
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario planning in strategic decision-making. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a sample of 15 case studies with executives in the South African context to reveal the perceived corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning. Findings From the cases, it is evident that industry-, organizational- and leadership-related factors enable or inhibit scenario planning. Requirements, benefits and inhibitors are revealed in strategic decision-making. Research limitations/implications Further research to determine supportive tools and technologies for enabling scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. Practical implications This paper expands insights into the requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Originality/value Given the increasing complexity of the business environment, a framework of scenario-thinking is presented and recommend greater emphasis on developing strategic decision-making competence, changed mindsets and organizational agility.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-22T01:00:26Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0036
       
  • Improving predictions of international business environments: China as a
           case in point
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose Firms engaged in international business necessarily make predictions about the business environments in which they operate or seek to enter, on the basis of which they make a number of strategic decisions. The purpose of this paper is to consider the difficulties there are in making accurate predictions and how the process might be improved. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines predictions made in 2007 by ‘China experts’ about what the Chinese business environment would look like in 2017. Their predictions were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues they were asked to consider. This paper focuses on the one-third of issues about which they were wide of the mark and examine the likely reasons. Findings The predictions of the 2007 study were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues the China experts on the Delphi panel were asked to consider. The reason that they were wide of the mark on about one-third of issues could be attributed to two main factors: the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis and the appointment in 2013 of Xi Jinping as the President of China. These events precipitated changes in direction in the Chinese business environment that had not been (and could not have been) anticipated by the Delphi panel. Originality/value Very few Delphi studies have been subject to a follow-up examination of the accuracy of their predictions. This paper contributes a discussion the various methodologies that firms can use to improve their forecasts of international business environments.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-18T09:24:27Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2017-0080
       
  • Renewable energy policy scenarios as implementation moderation of fuel
           subsidy policy in Indonesia
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of communication, resources, disposition and bureaucratic structure to the success of energy subsidy policy, to examine the effect of moderation of variable scenario of renewable energy policy on the influence of communication, resources, disposition and bureaucracy structure on the success of energy subsidy policy. Design/methodology/approach This study was purposively (based on specific objectives) conducted in Jakarta, which is associated with the implementation and subsidy policy scenario, the study focused on the center of government, namely, the capital city, Jakarta. Collection of data in this research survey was conducted in June-August 2017. The sampling technique was proportional stratified random sampling that took up most of the 770 members of Masyarakat Peduli Energi dan Lingkungan and Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia using a representative sample of results that have the ability to be generalized. Based on the formula Slovin (Solimun and Fernandes, 2017), a sample of 145 respondents was obtained. The research approach used was a quantitative with the analysis tool called the generalized structure component analysis. Findings This paper exhibited that all relationships between variables have a p-value of 0.05 except the third moderation and fourth moderation relationship. So it can be said that all relationships between variables are significant except the relationship between the variables of moderation to the relationship between the disposition variable (X3) on the successful implementation of subsidy policy (Y) and the relationship between the moderation variable to the relationship between bureaucracy structure variable (X4) to the successful implementation of subsidy policy. Originality/value The originality of the research refers to the following: The Policy Theory described by Edwards III (1980), and reinforced by the findings of Ratminto and Winarsih (2005), and Bloom et al. (2009), that communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures affect the success of the energy subsidy policy. This becomes the formulation of a hypothesized research problem whether communication, resources, disposition and bureaucratic structure affect the success of the energy subsidy policy. In fact, the conditions in Indonesia are quite different from the Western world, and the system in Indonesia has embraced subsidies. Therefore, this study also examines the moderating effects of renewable energy policy scenarios in the relationship between communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures on the success of the subsidy policy energy. Given that there is no strong theory that examines the effects of moderation of these four factors on the success of the energy subsidy policy. Therefore, as the development of Edward III Theory, this study examines the proposition of whether renewable energy policy scenarios reinforce or weaken (moderation effects) on the effects of communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures on the success of energy subsidy policies.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-15T02:47:18Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-05-2018-0054
       
  • Re-using Open Government Data (OGD) published by the Election Commission
           of India (ECI)
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The paper aims to “re-use” the Open Government Data (OGD) published by the Election Commission of India (ECI). Bihar’s performance across General Elections, 2014, and Bihar Legislative Assembly Elections, 2015, is compared, wherein the role of contestants’ demographic profiles in determining their vote share is being investigated. Design/methodology/approach Hypotheses are derived based on the impact of contestants’ demographic profiles (age, marital status, social category, political party affiliation, educational qualification, availing telephone and email facility, criminal antecedents) on their vote share. Following a quantitative approach, multiple regression and logistic regression are used to draw inferences from the data contestants’ affidavits – sourced from the ECI website. Findings Results show that contestants’ demographic profiles impact their vote share in the elections. While the ECI website is a viable source for re-using the data available there, data are not available in a user-friendly format and this leads to difficulty in being re-used by different stakeholders. Originality/value Academic research on OGD re-use is negligible, and the present study seeks to contribute towards extant literature by underlining the significance of re-using OGD by drawing inferences from the data accessible via ECI.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-12T12:18:42Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-12-2017-0082
       
  • Postmoney theory: value function in the domain of postmoney
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this study is to research the latest quantitative and qualitative transformations of money and its interaction with the market economy and societies in terms of their influence on the inner nature of money and its transformation from a simple tool to an aim per se, i.e. postmoney. Transforming the perception of the intrinsic value and “soul” of the money into the postmoney, influenced by the rising longevity and wide expectation for the ability to scientifically prolong the human life, will be discussed. This transformation will be confirmed by analysing the results from a national representative sociological survey (panel study with sample size n = 1,000). Design/methodology/approach The author uses the following philosophical methodological approaches – comparative-constructive, phenomenological, cognitive and deconstructive analysis. Findings The objective and qualitative reasons offered by the postmoney theory (PMT) for the transformation of money into postmoney, are related to the being of temporality, as well as to technologization and the sixth factor of production, scientific exponentiality and mental changes in the human being. A current postmoney survey gives a strong base to believe that the perception of an intrinsic value of postmoney changes the shape of a value function – from logarithmic to linear or even stochastic. This is the reason to believe that increasing of a postmoney quantity will lead to a qualitative transformation and psychological increase of postmoney sensitivity. Research limitations/implications The author intends to expand the postmoney survey on the international level so to confirm local findings. Practical implications Postmoney survey might be used as a powerful tool in creating and legalizing non-monistic money based on blockchain technologies and philosophical and socio-economic research of the postmoney issue. Social implications The future of money is of great importance for the exponentiality of the socio-economic environment and societies. Social impact of the money will be inevitably rising in the domain of postmoney perception. Originality/value The author of the current paper coined for the first-time notion of postmoney and now is expanding research developing PMT. As per the best knowledge of the author, shape of the curve of value function was not questioned and believes it might be of help to better understand the money phenomenon.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-12T12:17:20Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-06-2018-0069
       
  • When two existential risks are better than one
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The great filter and an unfriendly artificial general intelligence might pose existential risks to humanity, but these two risks are anti-correlated. The purpose of this paper is to consider the implications of having evidence that mankind is at significant peril from both these risks. Design/methodology/approach This paper creates Bayesian models under which one might get evidence for being at risk for two perils when we know that we are at risk for at most one of these perils. Findings Humanity should possibly be more optimistic about its long-term survival if we have convincing evidence for believing that both these risks are real than if we have such evidence for thinking that only one of these perils would likely strike us. Originality/value Deriving implications of being greatly concerned about both an unfriendly artificial general intelligence and the great filter.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-11T02:29:48Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0038
       
  • The intelligence explosion revisited
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The claim that super intelligent machines constitute a major existential risk was recently defended in Nick Bostrom’s book Superintelligence and forms the basis of the sub-discipline AI risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically assess the philosophical assumptions that are of importance to the argument that AI could pose an existential risk and if so, the character of that risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper distinguishes between “intelligence” or the cognitive capacity of an individual and “techne”, a more general ability to solve problems using, for example, technological artifacts. While human intelligence has not changed much over historical time, human techne has improved considerably. Moreover, the fact that human techne has more variance across individuals than human intelligence suggests that if machine techne were to surpass human techne, the transition is likely going to be prolonged rather than explosive. Findings Some constraints for the intelligence explosion scenario are presented that imply that AI could be controlled by human organizations. Originality/value If true, this argument suggests that efforts should focus on devising strategies to control AI rather strategies that assume that such control is impossible.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-08T10:35:19Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0042
       
  • Twenty years of S&T priority setting in Russia: lessons learned
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose This paper aims to present a retrospective analysis of the experience gained in the course of 20 years’ history of S&T priority setting and critical technologies’ identification, in terms of expected and actually achieved effects and lessons learned. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on analysing project documentation and reports, as well as on interviewing project team members. Each project’s effects are evaluated in terms of the six key foresight functions. Findings The key factors affecting success of priority S&T areas and critical technologies’ selection and implementation have been identified. They include focusing on practical implementation, linking S&T with socio-economic goals, combining thematic priorities with infrastructural and functional ones, as well as integrating priority selection in the S&T policy process. Research limitations implications The task of evaluating priority setting exercises over a long period requires a substantial information base to provide a comprehensive comparative analysis. The projects considered in the paper also need to be analysed in a context of socio-economic development. Practical implications The lessons learned presented in the paper could contribute to further development of approaches to selecting science and technology priorities and critical technologies, and their more efficient implementation. Originality value Priority setting has significant influence on policymaking and decision-making at the national and industry level. The evaluation of a unique 20-year experience provides substantial information and practical hints for further increasing efficacy of this instrument.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-10-05T10:57:40Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0033
       
  • Towards a customized foresight model on “disaster risk management” in
           developing countries
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The human efforts to be prepared better for the future challenges of natural disasters go back ages. Natural disasters occur when a natural event, such as an earthquake, triggers the social vulnerability. These natural disasters kill thousands of people worldwide annually and cause economic losses in millions of dollars. Moreover, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially, and mega-disasters occur when the need for recovery truly becomes national or international. There are several trends in nature and society, which suggest that this pattern may continue, with mega-disasters occurring more frequently in the future. In the past 100 years, the number of disasters and the number of people affected by these disasters have exponentially up surged. Thus, there is no other way to improve preparedness in a meaningful or diverse future-oriented manner. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on how to design and customize a conceptual foresight model in “disaster risk management” in Iran, and offers an executive model to help decision-makers in disaster management, through which an appropriate practical framework for the implementation of foresight has been developed. Finding The model has presented a possible framework for implementing a foresight practice within the context of disaster management. This paper particularly addresses different elements of a customized model, developed through a substantial literature review and comparative study for defining the suitable model in the disaster management context. The final model is validated using two rounds of the Delphi method, with the participation of national disaster management experts, practitioners and scientists. Research limitations/implications Although the whole model could be used all around the world, the main source of data validating the proposed model is limited to the expert’s opinions in a developing country (I. R. Iran.) and the geographical conditions of Iran are considered as a core of attention in response to natural disasters. Based on the indicators for choosing Delphi participants and experts, only 43 qualified experts are selected to validate the model. The main focus of this research is on natural disasters issues. Practical implications This study showed that while there has been a scattered global effort to recognize the increasing uncertainties in diverse disciplines, very little work in academic foresight has been undertaken to identify how it could be implemented. In particular, a series of factors in foresight processes is identified based on the comparative study and some additional elements are added to precisely identify the disaster management context and the most suitable model for national foresight implementation in disaster management. Originality/value The main value of this research paper is to clarify the exact relationship between the two interdisciplinary fields; the relationship between the key concepts of “futures studies” and “disaster management” has been thoroughly established. Also, a specific conceptual model for enriching the “pre-foresight” stage and selecting a proper “foresight approach” in “disaster management” is provided. This model has been validated through two rounds of the Delphi method. Finally, a cumulative framework of foresight patterns that includes the new model is presented to be applied in areas especially related to “natural disaster management”.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-09-28T10:52:42Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-01-2018-0002
       
  • Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose Islands have long been discussed as refuges from global catastrophes; this paper will evaluate them systematically, discussing both the positives and negatives of islands as refuges. There are examples of isolated human communities surviving for thousands of years on places like Easter Island. Islands could provide protection against many low-level risks, notably including bio-risks. However, they are vulnerable to tsunamis, bird-transmitted diseases and other risks. This paper aims to explore how to use the advantages of islands for survival during global catastrophes. Design/methodology/approach Preliminary horizon scanning based on the application of the research principles established in the previous global catastrophic literature. Findings The large number of islands on Earth, and their diverse conditions, increase the chance that one of them will provide protection from a catastrophe. Additionally, this protection could be increased if an island was used as a base for a nuclear submarine refuge combined with underground bunkers and/or extremely long-term data storage. The requirements for survival on islands, their vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate and adapt to risks are explored. Several existing islands, suitable for the survival of different types of risk, timing and budgets, are examined. Islands suitable for different types of refuges and other island-like options that could also provide protection are also discussed. Originality/value The possible use of islands as refuges from social collapse and existential risks has not been previously examined systematically. This paper contributes to the expanding research on survival scenarios.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-09-05T10:32:11Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0031
       
  • Food without sun: price and life-saving potential
    • Abstract: Foresight, Ahead of Print.
      Purpose The purpose of this study is to estimate the price and life-saving potential of alternate foods. The sun could be blocked by asteroid impact, supervolcanic eruption or nuclear winter caused by burning of cities during a nuclear war. The primary problem in these scenarios is loss of food production. Previous work has shown that alternate foods not dependent on sunlight, such as bacteria grown on natural gas and cellulose turned into sugar enzymatically, could feed everyone in these catastrophes, and preparation for these foods would save lives in a manner that is highly cost-effective. Design/methodology/approach This study estimates the price of alternate foods during a catastrophe in line with global trade and information sharing, but factors such as migration, loans, aid or conflict are not taken into consideration. Findings Without alternate foods, for a five-year winter, only approximately 10 per cent of the population would survive. The price of dry food would rise to approximately $100/kg, and the expenditure on this food would be approximately $100tn. If alternate foods were $8/kg, the surviving global population increases to approximately 70 per cent, saving>4billion lives. Research limitations/implications A nongovernmental mechanism for coordinating the investments of rich people may be possible. Identifying companies whose interests align with alternate food preparations may save lives at a negative cost. Practical implications The probability of loss of civilization and its impact on future generations would be lower in this scenario, and the total expenditure on food would be halved. Originality/value Preparation for alternate foods is a good investment even for wealthy people who would survive without alternate foods.
      Citation: foresight
      PubDate: 2018-08-20T10:35:56Z
      DOI: 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0041
       
 
 
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