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Publisher: Emerald   (Total: 308 journals)

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A Life in the Day     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Accounting Auditing & Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Accounting Research J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19, SJR: 0.155, h-index: 2)
Accounting, Auditing and Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Advances in Accounting Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Advances in Appreciative Inquiry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Advances in Dual Diagnosis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Advances in Mental Health and Intellectual Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32, SJR: 0.133, h-index: 2)
Advances in Mental Health and Learning Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
African J. of Economic and Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Agricultural Finance Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 145, SJR: 0.285, h-index: 13)
American J. of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Anti-Corrosion Methods and Materials     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.219, h-index: 22)
Arts Marketing : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Asia Pacific J. of Marketing and Logistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Asia-Pacific J. of Business Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.167, h-index: 4)
Asian Education and Development Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Asian J. on Quality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Asian Review of Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.119, h-index: 2)
Aslib Proceedings     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 281, SJR: 0.64, h-index: 22)
Assembly Automation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.301, h-index: 18)
Baltic J. of Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.279, h-index: 8)
Benchmarking : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.671, h-index: 25)
British Food J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.441, h-index: 20)
Built Environment Project and Asset Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Business Process Management J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.7, h-index: 24)
Business Strategy Series     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.139, h-index: 2)
Campus-Wide Information Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.292, h-index: 11)
Career Development Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.75, h-index: 19)
China Agricultural Economic Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.315, h-index: 4)
China Finance Review Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Chinese Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.254, h-index: 6)
Circuit World     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.241, h-index: 14)
Clinical Governance: An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.232, h-index: 12)
Collection Building     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.433, h-index: 8)
COMPEL: The Intl. J. for Computation and Mathematics in Electrical and Electronic Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.244, h-index: 16)
Competitiveness Review : An Intl. Business J. incorporating J. of Global Competitiveness     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Corporate Communications An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.535, h-index: 15)
Corporate Governance Intl. J. of Business in Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.285, h-index: 17)
Critical Perspectives on Intl. Business     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.312, h-index: 9)
Cross Cultural Management An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.434, h-index: 4)
Development and Learning in Organizations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 5)
Direct Marketing An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Disaster Prevention and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 0.283, h-index: 21)
Drugs and Alcohol Today     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0, h-index: 1)
Education + Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.338, h-index: 18)
Education, Business and Society : Contemporary Middle Eastern Issues     Hybrid Journal  
Employee Relations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.331, h-index: 13)
Engineering Computations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.435, h-index: 30)
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.329, h-index: 18)
Equal Opportunities Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Equality, Diversity and Inclusion : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.256, h-index: 2)
Ethnicity and Inequalities in Health and Social Care     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 1)
EuroMed J. of Business     Hybrid Journal  
European Business Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.425, h-index: 13)
European J. of Innovation Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.556, h-index: 19)
European J. of Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.811, h-index: 31)
European J. of Training and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.387, h-index: 14)
Evidence-based HRM     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Facilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.323, h-index: 11)
foresight     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.47, h-index: 14)
Gender in Management : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.294, h-index: 14)
Grey Systems : Theory and Application     Hybrid Journal  
Health Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.278, h-index: 11)
Higher Education, Skills and Work-based Learning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.112, h-index: 2)
History of Education Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0, h-index: 1)
Housing, Care and Support     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.187, h-index: 1)
Human Resource Management Intl. Digest     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.105, h-index: 4)
Humanomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Indian Growth and Development Review     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.121, h-index: 1)
Industrial and Commercial Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.184, h-index: 8)
Industrial Lubrication and Tribology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.433, h-index: 14)
Industrial Management & Data Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.979, h-index: 49)
Industrial Robot An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.483, h-index: 21)
Info     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.374, h-index: 14)
Information Management & Computer Security     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.397, h-index: 25)
Information Technology & People     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 144, SJR: 0.565, h-index: 18)
Interactive Technology and Smart Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Interlending & Document Supply     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 205, SJR: 0.411, h-index: 9)
Internet Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 181, SJR: 0.899, h-index: 40)
Intl. J. for Lesson and Learning Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. for Researcher Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Intl. J. of Accounting and Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.125, h-index: 1)
Intl. J. of Bank Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.716, h-index: 21)
Intl. J. of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Intl. J. of Clothing Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.154, h-index: 18)
Intl. J. of Commerce and Management     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Conflict Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.459, h-index: 28)
Intl. J. of Contemporary Hospitality Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.795, h-index: 19)
Intl. J. of Culture Tourism and Hospitality Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Intl. J. of Development Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.337, h-index: 4)
Intl. J. of Educational Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Emergency Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Emerging Markets     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Energy Sector Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.249, h-index: 6)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.441, h-index: 16)
Intl. J. of Event and Festival Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)

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Journal Cover foresight
   Journal TOC RSS feeds Export to Zotero [9 followers]  Follow    
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
     ISSN (Print) 1463-6689
     Published by Emerald Homepage  [308 journals]   [SJR: 0.47]   [H-I: 14]
  • Entropia: life beyond industrial civilisation
    • Authors: Richard Slaughter et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2014.
      PubDate: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 08:22:23 GMT
  • A study of turbulence in the Swedish payment system – Is there a way
    • Authors: Niklas Arvidsson et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose The field of payments in Europe could benefit from renewal but is facing turbulence and great challenges concerning its future due to a variety of strong driving forces. This leads to uncertainty which makes actors – industrial as well as policy-making agencies – passive and reluctant to take needed steps that may realize a new playing field for payments. Design/methodology/approach The article uses scenario analysis methodology to propose a way forward if the field of payments is to move away from turbulence and instead embrace renewal. It is based on a literature study, interviews and workshops. Findings This article discusses and shows how the payment system is in a state of turbulence, which in itself may become a self-reinforcing negative process. The seemingly rational competitive actions that firms take in this situation may make the situation worse. The article also outlines critical action that must be taken to avoid this negative process. Research limitations/implications There is a need for research that integrates studies on innovation and renewal in the critical industries – banking, telecom and the system driving industries – to improve our understanding of possible synergies and/or obstacles to integrated, cross-industry innovation efforts. Such insights may also lay the foundation for the creation of a way to overcome turbulence. Practical implications The article advocates the need that critical actors collaborate to develop a new understanding – or common ground - of a future payment system. This will serve as a tool to identify obstacles and challenges, develop action and formulate agendas for different actors in and around the system. Based on the new common ground, actors are then free to formulate their own strategic agendas in a new competitive landscape in the field of payments. Originality/value The originality of this paper is to test to the idea that turbulence and the consequential inertia in the payment system is a result of the institutional set-up of the industry. In addition, the article uses causal texture theory and scenario analysis to understand turbulence and inertia in the payment system. This has to my knowledge not been done before.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:28:37 GMT
  • Y in the workplace: Comparative analysis of values, skills and perceptions
           of government communication amongst university students and government
    • Authors: Jeremy Berry et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose By analyzing similarities and differences between the Generation Y public relations student sample at a Western Canadian university and the working generations of a communications branch within a provincial government, specifically Generation Y, the article aims to advance understanding of the various and differing aspects of government communication as a means to determine where the various generations’ values converge and diverge and to forecast the future implications of the findings. Design/methodology/approach This comparative study uses data from two previous studies to identify and analyze trends among Generation Y communicators – both those in the university setting and those already working within government – specific to values, skills and perceptions of the government communication function. It asks: how do the values and opinions of Generation Y university public relations students compare and contrast with values and opinions from Generation Y communication staff within a provincial government' Findings As well as supporting some of the assumptions and previous findings relating to Generation Y, the findings from this purposive survey and subsequent comparative analysis offer a new and deeper understanding of the workplace needs and wants of those represented by the particular sample. The findings also provide a glimpse into what the future of government communications might look like and the skills the next generation of employees will need to have. Research limitations/implications The sample size used in this article is small and purposive, and should not be read as representative. The intent is not to generalize broad populations and generations, but to add to knowledge in a very specific area. Practical implications The results of this study directly inform the practice of government communication by addressing current and future recruitment challenges. Originality/value A study of generational values within Canadian government communication has not been conducted previously by scholars and academics. This study fills a gap in the research and offers valuable insight for future research.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:28:34 GMT
  • “After 300 meters turn right” – The future of
           Russia’s GLONASS and the development of global satellite navigation
    • Authors: Mikhail B. Bokov et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) were designed to determine the exact location of objects on land, water and air for military purposes. With the opening of the satellite signal for civilian use, the technology created business opportunities for various applications. Today, satellite positioning technology is used by transporters, carriers, motorists, surveyors, builders, foresters etc. through a wide array of devices – like mobile phones or multimedia devices with built-in receiver modules. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides the results of a recently held foresight exercise on the future development of Russia’s GLONASS system. Findings The foresight exercise suggested a number niche markets where the Glonass technology could be of great use, like monitoring of buildings and construction sides or the monitoring of shipments. Also in the case of Russia, large-scale government-driven investment programs will be key drivers for Glonass’ growth perspectives. Originality/value The paper provides a comprehensive picture of the development of GNSS for civilian use until 2020.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:28:33 GMT
  • The Value of "Sociality"
    • Authors: Evgeniya Lukinova et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose Recent experimental evidence brought to light that the assumptions of the Prospect Theory by Kahneman and Tversky do not hold in the proposed substantive domain of “sociality”. In particular, the desire to be a part of the social environment, i.e. the environment where individuals make decisions among their peers, is not contingent on the framing. Evolutionary psychologists suggest that humans are “social animals” for adaptive reasons. However, entering a social relationship is inherently risky. Therefore, it is extremely important to know how much people value “sociality”, when the social outcomes are valued more than material outcomes and what kinds of adaptations people use. Design/methodology/approach We develop a new theory and propose the general utility function that features “sociality” component. We test the theory in the laboratory experiments, carried out in several countries. Findings Our results suggest that when stakes are low the theory of “sociality” is successful in predicting individual decisions: on average people do value “sociality” and it surpasses the monetary loss. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is the breakdown of the risk attitudes under low stakes and individual level of decision-making. Another advancement is the ability to formalize the social utility or the theory of “sociality” in an economic model: we use general utility function that we define both on the outcomes and on the process of the decision-making itself and test in laboratory studies.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:57 GMT
  • The Great Divide, Nature and Human Nature in the Old World and the
           New (review)
    • Authors: Jacques G RICHARDSON et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:57 GMT
  • The Futures of the Singapore Association of Social Workers: An analysis
           using CLA and the ‘Futures Triangle’
    • Authors: Gilbert Fan et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose In today’s rapidly changing world, professional associations have to re-evaluate their roles to remain relevant. This paper presents an analysis of findings from a study on the level of alliance of social workers with their professional association. By critically examining underlying issues beneath common beliefs held by social workers that impede, promote or sustain change with their professional association, we can gain a deeper understanding into their level of alliance with their association. Insights towards current issues faced by the association as well as its alternative and preferred futures could be illuminated. Design/methodology/approach Inayatullah’s ‘Futures Triangle’ was used to deepen the findings of the study on the level of alliance of social workers with their professional association from the lens of causal layered analysis (CLA) (Inayatullah, 2004). The study employed interviews with 27 social workers in Singapore, selected through purposive sampling. Findings Alternative scenarios and preferred futures of the Singapore Association of Social Workers (SASW) that were postulated from the interviews reinforce a need for more targeted recruitment campaigns. It also calls for regionalization and globalization of SASW in order to maximize its potentials. Originality/value The paper suggests how a social work association might be able to reposition its role in relation to its stakeholders to promote and sustain itself. SASW could do so through positioning itself as the ‘National Geographic’ beacon for social workers in Singapore to reach out to the world.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:54 GMT
  • Interactive Foresight on the Hungarian SMEs
    • Authors: Eva Hideg et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the development of knowledge economy in the Central Hungarian Region (CHR). Design/methodology/approach A methodology of interactive foresight process for creating regional future concepts is developed which is based on a specific meaning of integral futures and uses online solutions, too. Findings Personal meetings with SME stakeholders and the works of interactive communications with feedbacks within and among stakeholder groups was organized around our research homepage. The networking created the interconnection and the feedbacks between the stakeholders and the futurist group in the process of shaping regional future ideas. The online networking is running. Research limitations/implications The low number of stakeholders can limit the validity and acceptance of futures ideas created by this process. Practical implications The developed interactive foresight process can also be applicable at different organisational levels and in different fields for shaping shared future ideas. Originality/value A theoretically based interactive foresight process has been developed in which stakeholders can participate not only interactively in the foresight process, but they can implement the achievements in their enterprising activity as well. The participants were interested in foresight and co-operative during the whole process because they learned the use of foresight tools through collective solution of practical tasks which were important for them.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:51 GMT
  • Exploring the structure of international technology diffusion
    • Authors: Hung-Chun Huang et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2014. Purpose Globalization has highlighted changes in socio-economics and is reshaping the world. However, when comparing endogenous factors, exogenous factors are complex and demonstrate themselves as network phenomena. These network phenomena compose themselves as neither sole nor independent units. Countries in the global network act interdependently, and heavily influence one another. This study provides a macro perspective on diffusion structure research, and investigates the deep structure of international technology diffusion and structural differences between technology diffusion networks. This work also provides an understanding of the nature of globalization. Design/methodology/approach This study utilizes social network analysis to investigate the structural configuration of international technology diffusion. This investigation employs a sample of 42 countries over the period from 1997 to 2008. The dataset contains two categories: bilateral trade flow and aggregate R&D Expenditure. Meanwhile, this study employs blockmodel analysis to reveal a network structure, which can precisely illustrate a global network configuration. Findings The findings not only illustrate the pattern change of diffusion from a cascade-like to radial-like structure, but also present the structural configuration of technologically advanced countries and their competitive positions. Practical implications In the shift to a diffusive structure, time and space are represented in new ways. Therefore, radial-like diffusion structure can provide some technological development approaches for countries interested in exogenous effects for technological growth and managing their international relation. Originality/value This study is the first to employ a multilateral perspective and longitudinal data to examine a cross-country network structure, to provide an understanding of the nature of globalization, its conceptualization, and how influence and effects are transmitted through the interconnectedness of international technology diffusion.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:40 GMT
  • Major factors contributing to wind power diffusion
    • Authors: Matti Lehtovaara et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2014. Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate the linkages between the technological, market and political environment in the wind power industry, and their contribution to market diffusion. Design/methodology/approach The evaluation is based on a literature review of the wind power industry and policy issues in selected countries, patent and financial analyses of leading European firms, and semi-structured interviews of energy experts. Findings The results reveal that the industry is policy-driven, and appropriate energy politics are crucial in continuing the rapid wind power market diffusion during the next decades. Wind power technologies are in an accelerating stage of evolution, and competitive technologies contribute to market diffusion and firms’ financial performance. However, without adequate energy subsidies and emission trading schemes the industry will not be competitive in the energy markets, where other energy sources, including fossil fuels, are also subsidized. Research limitations/implications This case focuses mainly on the leading European industry actors and has a European perspective in policy issues. The analyses are limited to the main support mechanisms and countries where the diffusion of renewable energy has been rapid. Practical implications The wind power industry is still in the emerging phase in its life-cycle, and well-planned and efficiently implemented public support schemes are needed in order for the firms to compete successfully in the markets. The industry will propably be competitive without subsidies in 10-20 years. Originality/value The evaluation of the given indicators and political environment will give insight into the competitive environment and factors behind the diffusion of emerging technologies.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:40 GMT
  • The structure of bio-information-nano technology convergence from
           firms’ perspective
    • Authors: Keun-Hwan Kim et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2014.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:40 GMT
  • A study on knowledge flows of dye sensitized solar cells’ patent
    • Authors: James K.C. Chen et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2014. Purpose Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs), which are known as one of the key technologies of green energy, have been applied ever more widely to many different industries and their use has quickly grown with a number of scientific publications and patent applications. This study’s purpose is to determine the development and knowledge flows of DSSCs via the use of patent inventor database. Moreover, this study aims on exploring patentees and inventor’s companies to help readers and practitioners to be able to understand the patentees, technology development and activities of knowledge flows from these four countries. Design/methodology/approach This paper was based on the U.S.A patent database collection of the third-generation Dye-sensitized Solar Cells in four typical countries such as The United States, Japan, Germany, and Taiwan to map the knowledge network of DSSCs technology via the social network analysis method. Findings The knowledge network of a total number of 132 DSSCs patents was explored. Among four countries, Japan leads with the main patent number being H01G009. This paper also indicates the knowledge flow situation of Japanese inventors of dye-sensitized solar cells. For example, patented inventors Wariishi and Koji (JP) in 2002 served the Fuji Photo Film Co., Ltd. (JP), and then in 2008 transferred to the Fuji film Corporation (JP). This means that the knowledge of technology was transferred by peoples who moved to another company for a new job. Research limitations/implications This study is based on USPTO patent data base to do exploration. Practical implications This study expected to provide a information for the industry, government and academia so that they will understand the trajectory of the technology inventor, specialist cultivation and technology development in Dye-sensitized Solar Cell industry. Originality/value This study provides a useful information for the green energy industry, government and academia to understand the importance of the knowledge flows and future development of DSSCs technology of the solar cell industry. There by they can intensify industrial competence and innovation by externally collaborating in this field as well as to increase the industrial competence by reimbursing the fund from government and other research institutes.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:39 GMT
  • Meta-measures for Technology and Environment
    • Authors: Fred Young Phillips et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose Data for innovation management and policy must be valid, reliable, relevant and actionable. The paper examines the question: What shall we measure' and offers preliminary answers. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines trends within finance, environment, and institutions and society, all with regard to innovation and technology. It examines how these trends interact with each other and with measurement of innovation and socio-technical change. Findings In the future, measurement for innovation policy must occur in markedly different ways – and on quite different scales – than is currently the practice. The paper concludes with a future-oriented list of items to be measured, with preliminary guidelines on how to organize to measure them. Research limitations/implications Foresight researchers must put new emphasis on measurement. Practical implications Local and national statistical agencies will have to measure new indicators, and organize differently in order to measure them. Originality/value This concept paper goes beyond other indexes and proposals to identify new phenomena that must be measured. In contrast to other works which are oriented to measurement-push (toward policy), the present paper makes bold assertions about the trends needing to be addressed by policy, then proposes measurement based on policy-pull. It argues against premature worldwide statistical standards, and for Popperian “multiple engineering experiments.”
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:20:02 GMT
  • REVIEW: 2014 State of the Future, The Millennium Project (Washington,
           DC) Update on Strategic Planning for the Planet
    • Authors: William Halal et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:20:02 GMT
  • The alternative futures of the International Centre for Biosaline
           Agriculture: from salinity research to greening the desert
    • Authors: Sohail Inayatullah et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose Based on a report for ICBA, the International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture, this article presents findings of the preferred visions, scenarios and strategies of stakeholders articulated at a workshop held in Dubai November 25-26th, 2012. Design/methodology/approach The "six pillars" approach to foresight was used to articulate visions of preferred futures of over fifty international stakeholders including representatives from the UAE Government, national and international donors, the private sector as well as leading scientists from universities and international scientific institutions. These visions were then translated into a strategic and business plan for ICBA. Findings The research center was successfully able to use foresight methods to develop a long term strategic plan, continuing its history of innovation in knowledge based research relating to saline and marginal environments. Novel visions and strategies for water and food futures were developed. A risk assessment of each vision was conducted. Research limitations/implications This case study presents visions with scenarios and strategic pathways. It illustrates the utility in setting long term visions first and then linking with strategic plans. Limitations include that the success of such a venture cannot be judged for at least five to six years. While in the short run, resources – human, partnerships, capital, leadership – have been mobilized, it is too soon to gauge real success of the foresight workshop, project. Practical implications Shows links between visions, scenarios and strategic pathways. Originality/value One of the few workshop oriented interventions in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) region using the anticipatory action learning six pillars framework. Contrasts to normal expert-based conferencing in the MENA region.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:19:58 GMT
  • Building an Innovation-driven Economy – the case of BRIC and GCC
    • Authors: Steffen Gackstatter et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose The paper undertakes an analysis of the attempts of GCC and BRIC countries to catch up in their national development to build an innovation-driven economy on which to base future growth and wealth. We conducted an analysis of GCC and BRIC countries to show the different strategies leaders have taken to try and achieve this aspiration. This paper analyses the various aspects of national innovation systems of BRIC and GCC countries, highlights similar and different approaches – and attempts to quantify their success. For example, GCC countries spend extensively on research and development, but have so far achieved less than meaningful results. Brazil, China and India are catching up to the acknowledged world leaders in innovation, but Russia is lagging. Design/methodology/approach Our comparison was based mostly on secondary data from sources and institutions that use statistical data to build country rankings, such as the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) produced by the World Economic Forum. BRIC and GCC countries were analyzed over the period 1996 – 2011 because most of the indicators data are only available from 1996. Data related to intellectual property rights have been collected since 1999 or 2000. The data available for the number of researchers proved problematic for both BRIC and GCC countries. For instance, some data for the GCC countries was missing. In order not to leave a gap, we extrapolated in line with the overall trend; using the least squares method to approximate a straight line for the missing data based on what had already been reported. Findings Counter-intuitively, we will argue that the push towards an innovation-based economy is actually not dependent on total expenditure on R&D, but rather relies on the efficient allocation of investments and the rigorous implementation of innovation strategy. And we will demonstrate this by showing our ideas in relation to both BRIC and GCC countries. This analysis raises fascinating points of discussion for those looking to build an innovation economy in other countries, and has practical implications for policy maker and policy implementers in all countries. Originality/value first analysis of the correlation of GERD with GDP growth and STI policy measures
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:18:15 GMT
  • Road-mapping the business potential of sustainability within the European
           manufacturing industry
    • Authors: Katri Valkokari et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore the required changes, outline business potential, and envisage the key steps that a networked manufacturing industry needs to take in order to reach more sustainably performing manufacturing in the future. Design/methodology/approach The paper utilises a visionary road-mapping approach to study the required changes and the business potential related to sustainable development in the manufacturing industry. Findings The results were summarised in three sub-roadmaps: i) empowerment of stakeholders, ii) increase efficiency, and iii) creation of new performance criteria. On the basis of the summary of the sub-roadmaps the framework was configured in order to described the opportunities and challenges of sustainable business development in the European manufacturing industry. Research limitations/implications A clear implication of this study is that a more system-oriented approach, new models for collaboration between network actors, and transparently shared network-level KPIs are required before further steps toward a sustainable manufacturing industry can be taken. In addition, sustainability-driven business models are required, to specify these changes concretely. Practical implications The presented sub-roadmaps and framework summarising them could provide new insights to business practioners exploring business potential of sustainability. Originality/value Studies of sustainability within the manufacturing industry have focused mainly on green issues in supply-chain management or corporation-level governance models and reporting practices. The paper presents a broader view of sustainable development and recognises networked business as part of the solution.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:18:10 GMT
  • Mining technology intelligence for policy and strategy development
    • Authors: Tugrul Daim et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2014.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:17:59 GMT
  • Procedural characteristics of the 4th Korean technology foresight
    • Authors: Moonjung Choi et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2014. Purpose Korea performs technology foresight (TF) every 5 years to establish science and technology policy and strategies. In the 4th TF, future technologies that might be developed by 2035 were discovered and Delphi survey was conducted to examine current development status, anticipated times of technology development and public use, plans to secure these technologies, etc. This paper describes procedural characteristics of the 4th TF: (1) using search engines to discover emerging issues; (2) analytic framework development to discover future needs; (3) future technologies considering future needs as well as technology development; (4) detailed description of future technology; (5) analytical discussions of Delphi survey results; 6) developing spatial-specific scenarios and illustrations; and (7) examining possible adverse effects of future technologies. Design/methodology/approach This paper divides procedure employed in the 4th TF into three steps and explains seven characteristics related to its procedure. Findings Improvement of the TF procedure will increase the reliability and applicability of its results. Originality/value This paper consists of original results which include improved procedure and its implication by researchers who participated in the 4th TF. It will provide a useful example for other nations hoping to introduce TF to set up national science and technology policy.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:17:59 GMT
  • Innovation systems dynamics and the positioning of Europe. A review and
           critique of recent Foresight studies
    • Authors: Dr Robert Gurrman; Mrs Pascal Petit et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 126-141, April 2014. Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to shed light on innovation systems dynamics and the positioning of Europe in a longer term perspective, with special attention to the international governance of the major challenges which humanity is facing. Design/methodology/approach – The method used is based on a secondary analysis and interpretation of Foresight studies. The underlying assumption is that Foresight exercises can be considered as the scene where techno-economic systems and trajectories are proposed, discussed and shaped. Findings – Foresights can be distinguished by the challenges and issues they focus on: – the innovation race: competitiveness and influence through innovation, – the thematic concerns: the stakes of global public goods, – the normative perspectives: a new style of development in the making. The question to know whether Europe can be a world driver in fostering responsible innovation models and cooperative modes of knowledge circulation and global challenges handling through relevant social and technological innovations. Originality/value – This paper reviews and puts in perspective Foresight exercises in an original way, this on two grounds: first, it includes exercises fostered at national, regional (in particular the EU) and global (UN system) levels – this to account for the emerging multi-level governance and, second, it classifies them according to their major focus, namely the innovation race, the thematic concerns (global public goods) and the normative perspectives (new style of development). It provides to the actors of innovation in both the public and private sector an understanding of the current key-concerns and visions on innovation systems and the position of Europe.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:29 GMT
  • International migration by 2030: impact of immigration policies scenarios
           on growth and employment
    • Authors: Dr Robert Gurrman; Mrs Pascal Petit et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 142-164, April 2014. Purpose – The aim of this paper is to estimate the dynamic of international migration between the different regions of the world for 2030 and to measure the impact of different kind of migration policies on the economic and social evolution. Design/methodology/approach – The change and migration forecasting are estimated for regions of the world using macroeconomic Cambridge Alphametrics Model. Findings – The crisis and its aggravation thus clearly favour scenarios of immigration policy along the “zero migration” or “constant migration”. These choices of migration policies reinforce the deflationary process resulting in reduced opportunities for renewed growth in industrial areas and are not offset by the dynamism of growth in emerging countries. Paradoxically, the developed countries which are most durably affected by the crisis are also those that have ageing population and are in high need of skilled and unskilled labor. Practical implications – Three options are possible: one going along the depressive process by espousing restrictive immigration policies that remain expensive. The second involves a highly selective immigration policy. Under these conditions the demographic revival already appearing would be reinforced by a rejuvenation of the population brought about by a more open immigration policy. Political and institutional factors play a fundamental role in the emergence of this optimistic assumption and the rise of isolationism in Europe and the ghettoization of suburban areas can hinder the application of such a policy of openness to migration. The third scenario, the mass migration scenario, allows letting go of the growth related constraints and getting out of the deflationist spiral. This pro-active approach could cause public opinions to change in line with public interest. This scenario of mass migration has more of a chance to see the light under a growth hypothesis. However, restrictive policies weaken the prospects of sustainable recovery causing a vicious cycle that can only be broken by pro-active policies or by irresistible shocks. Originality/value – From specific estimations, four immigration regimes have been built that cut across the major regions of the model: the “core skill replacement migration regime” based on selective policies using migration to fill high-skilled labor needs (United Kingdom, West and Northern Europe, Canada, Australia, and USA), “mass immigration and replacement” applies to South Europe, East Asia High Income, and part of West Asia (Gulf countries), “big fast-growing emerging regions of future mass immigration,” notably China, India and “South-South migration” based on forced migration much of it by climate change, which may likely occur in South Asia, part of West Asia, and, most of Africa (without South Africa). Migrations in transit countries (Central America to USA, and East Europe to UK and West Europe) are based on low skilled migrants in labor-intensive sectors.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:29 GMT
  • The future of financial markets and regulation: what strategy for
    • Authors: Dr Robert Gurrman; Mrs Pascal Petit et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 95-108, April 2014. Purpose – This article aims to provide insight into the future of financial markets and regulation in order to define what would be the best strategy for Europe. Design/methodology/approach – First the authors define the potential changes in financial markets and then the tools available for the regulator to tame them. Finally, they build five scenarios according to the main evolutions observed on the financial markets and on the tools used by the regulator to modify these trends. Findings – Among the five scenarios defined, two present highly unstable features since the regulator refuses to choose between financial opening and independently determining how to regulate finance in order to preserve financial stability. Three of them achieve financial stability. However, they are more or less efficient or feasible. In terms of market efficiency, the multi-polar scenario is the best and the fragmentation scenario is the worst, since gains of integration depend on the size of the new capital market. Regarding sovereignty of regulation, fragmentation is the best scenario and the multi-polar scenario is the worst, because it necessitates coordination at the global level which implies moving further away from respective national preferences. However, the more realistic option seems to be the regionalisation scenario: this level of coordination seems much more realistic than the global one; the market should be of sufficient size to enjoy substantial benefits of integration. Nevertheless, the “European government” might gradually increase the degree of financial integration outside Europe in line with the degree of cooperation with the rest of the world. Originality/value – Foresight studies on financial markets and regulation are quite rare. This may be explained by the difficulty to forecast what will be their evolution in the coming decades, not least because finance is fundamentally unstable. This paper provides a framework to consider what could be the best strategy of regulators in such an unstable environment.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:28 GMT
  • CSR into (new) perspective
    • Authors: Dr Robert Gurrman; Mrs Pascal Petit et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 176-188, April 2014. Purpose – This paper aims to provide a theoretical approach of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in order to assess whether CSR will develop as a concept pushing efficiently for more de facto social responsibility or will become a pure marketing artefact. The trade-off between the development of CSR behaviour and lobbying over regulations is a key element that will influence the evolution of CSR. The result is that if the world consolidates or if it tends towards multilateralism to a large extent, then CSR is less likely to have an efficient impact. Design/methodology/approach – Theoretical approach based on three fields: credence goods, greenwashing and political economy. Findings – The coordination is harder for lobbies in the more multilateral scenario. The more politically powerful group would lose its influence on the decision body in the multipolar scenario. If lobbies keep influencing their state governments, the efficiency would also be reduced in the regionalization or multipolar scenarios. The easiness of the greenwashing strategy is also crucial in order to determine the possible evolution of the CSR as a real commitment that benefits environment and society. Research limitations/implications – Countries may take advantage of CSR by offering an advantage to firms willing to develop CSR thanks to public regulations if greenwashing is easy and if the evolution of the world that prevails is similar to the tripolar or regionalization scenarios. This may also occur under the multipolar scenario but it would necessitate an effective international coordination. Originality/value – This is the first work that brings together the strategic behaviour of firms with respect to Corporate Social Responsibility and political economy determinants. The predicted evolutions of these two features according to the degree of multilateralism as well as how they are intertwined are also novelties of this paper.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:28 GMT
  • ICSU Foresight Analysis, International Science in 2031 – Exploratory
    • Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 192-195, April 2014.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:28 GMT
  • Key issues for global governance in 2030
    • Authors: Pascal M Petit et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, April 2014.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:28 GMT
  • The future of global trade and the WTO
    • Authors: Dr Robert Gurrman; Mrs Pascal Petit et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 109-125, April 2014. Purpose – The global governance of trade is in a deadlock and the WTO is suffering from a long standing crisis of legitimacy. This paper aims to analyse the main issues which might influence the governance of world trade from now until 2030 and present quantitative projections of international trade. Design/methodology/approach – The research on the main issues which might influence the governance of world trade from now until 2030 draws on a detailed analysis of the WTO and trade policies. Four scenarios of the world economy are presented, which are derived from the international AUGUR research project “Challenges for Europe in the world in 2030” coordinated by Paris Nord University. The analysis takes into account econometric forecasting of world trade conducted in the framework of this project. Findings – First, the failure of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations to reach its ambitious agenda derives from the discrepancy between the governance of world trade and the new power relationship prevailing in the world economy, with new emerging powers (China, India, etc.) rapidly increasing their share of world trade. Second, the continuous restructuring of world trade and economy, which goes together with new forms of globalization, will increase pressure for a profound reform of the governance of world trade in the next few years. Research limitations/implications – This paper calls for a reform of world trade governance, especially of the missions of WTO within a renovated economic world order. Future research could investigate more deeply the potential for regional trade integration, which is reinforced by international production networks. Regional trade agreements might be an increasing alternative to multilateral trade agreements. Originality/value – This paper brings new ideas by raising the issue of the governance of world trade using a prospective approach, with the aim to identify the key channels through which international trade integration will impact the world economy. This study bases its analysis on potential scenarios from now on until 2030, each of these scenarios corresponding to a specific institutional configuration.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:27 GMT
  • Defence and security: new issues and impacts
    • Authors: Dr Robert Gurrman; Mrs Pascal Petit et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 165-175, April 2014. Purpose – This paper aims to provide a meta-analysis of the main themes emerging from public domain foresight studies on the defence and security environment undertaken in the decade since the 9/11 attacks on the USA. The authors focus mainly on foresight studies undertaken in Europe. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a content analysis of public domain foresight studies. Findings – Foresight studies on the defence and security environment reflect a shift in security thinking away from a focus on state-centric threats towards a much broader view of security risks that includes risks presented by the vulnerability of European society to the failure of critical infrastructure, to pandemics, environmental change and resource based conflicts. The authors place a particular emphasis on the treatment of technological change in these defence and security foresight studies and argue that the growing importance of dual-use technologies is likely to mean that defence will play a declining role as a sponsor and lead-user of advanced technologies in the future. Originality/value – Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have grown in number since 9/11 not least in Europe. However, they have been the subject of little systematic analysis. This paper makes a contribution to such an analysis.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:27 GMT
  • Science, Society and What Should Come
    • Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 2, Page 189-191, April 2014.
      PubDate: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:07:27 GMT
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