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A Life in the Day     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Accounting Auditing & Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Accounting Research J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21, SJR: 0.155, h-index: 2)
Accounting, Auditing and Accountability J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Advances in Accounting Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Advances in Appreciative Inquiry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Advances in Dual Diagnosis     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Advances in Mental Health and Intellectual Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 38, SJR: 0.133, h-index: 2)
Advances in Mental Health and Learning Disabilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
African J. of Economic and Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Agricultural Finance Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 172, SJR: 0.285, h-index: 13)
American J. of Business     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Anti-Corrosion Methods and Materials     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.219, h-index: 22)
Arts Marketing : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Asia Pacific J. of Marketing and Logistics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Asia-Pacific J. of Business Administration     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.167, h-index: 4)
Asian Education and Development Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Asian J. on Quality     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Asian Review of Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.119, h-index: 2)
Aslib Proceedings     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 320, SJR: 0.64, h-index: 22)
Assembly Automation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.301, h-index: 18)
Baltic J. of Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.279, h-index: 8)
Benchmarking : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.671, h-index: 25)
British Food J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.441, h-index: 20)
Built Environment Project and Asset Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Business Process Management J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.7, h-index: 24)
Business Strategy Series     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.139, h-index: 2)
Campus-Wide Information Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.292, h-index: 11)
Career Development Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.75, h-index: 19)
China Agricultural Economic Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.315, h-index: 4)
China Finance Review Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Chinese Management Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.254, h-index: 6)
Circuit World     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.241, h-index: 14)
Clinical Governance: An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.232, h-index: 12)
Collection Building     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.433, h-index: 8)
COMPEL: The Intl. J. for Computation and Mathematics in Electrical and Electronic Engineering     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.244, h-index: 16)
Competitiveness Review : An Intl. Business J. incorporating J. of Global Competitiveness     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Corporate Communications An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.535, h-index: 15)
Corporate Governance Intl. J. of Business in Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.285, h-index: 17)
Critical Perspectives on Intl. Business     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.312, h-index: 9)
Cross Cultural Management An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.434, h-index: 4)
Development and Learning in Organizations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 5)
Direct Marketing An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Disaster Prevention and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 0.283, h-index: 21)
Drugs and Alcohol Today     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24, SJR: 0, h-index: 1)
Education + Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.338, h-index: 18)
Education, Business and Society : Contemporary Middle Eastern Issues     Hybrid Journal  
Employee Relations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.331, h-index: 13)
Engineering Computations     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.435, h-index: 30)
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16, SJR: 0.329, h-index: 18)
Equal Opportunities Intl.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Equality, Diversity and Inclusion : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.256, h-index: 2)
Ethnicity and Inequalities in Health and Social Care     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.128, h-index: 1)
EuroMed J. of Business     Hybrid Journal  
European Business Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.425, h-index: 13)
European J. of Innovation Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15, SJR: 0.556, h-index: 19)
European J. of Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.811, h-index: 31)
European J. of Training and Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.387, h-index: 14)
Evidence-based HRM     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Facilities     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.323, h-index: 11)
foresight     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.47, h-index: 14)
Gender in Management : An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.294, h-index: 14)
Grey Systems : Theory and Application     Hybrid Journal  
Health Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.278, h-index: 11)
Higher Education, Skills and Work-based Learning     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.112, h-index: 2)
History of Education Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0, h-index: 1)
Housing, Care and Support     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.187, h-index: 1)
Human Resource Management Intl. Digest     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.105, h-index: 4)
Humanomics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Indian Growth and Development Review     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.121, h-index: 1)
Industrial and Commercial Training     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.184, h-index: 8)
Industrial Lubrication and Tribology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.433, h-index: 14)
Industrial Management & Data Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.979, h-index: 49)
Industrial Robot An Intl. J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.483, h-index: 21)
Info     Hybrid Journal   (SJR: 0.374, h-index: 14)
Information Management & Computer Security     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.397, h-index: 25)
Information Technology & People     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 173, SJR: 0.565, h-index: 18)
Interactive Technology and Smart Education     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Interlending & Document Supply     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 232, SJR: 0.411, h-index: 9)
Internet Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 211, SJR: 0.899, h-index: 40)
Intl. J. for Lesson and Learning Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. for Researcher Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Intl. J. of Accounting and Information Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.125, h-index: 1)
Intl. J. of Bank Marketing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.716, h-index: 21)
Intl. J. of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Intl. J. of Clothing Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.154, h-index: 18)
Intl. J. of Commerce and Management     Hybrid Journal  
Intl. J. of Conflict Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.459, h-index: 28)
Intl. J. of Contemporary Hospitality Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.795, h-index: 19)
Intl. J. of Culture Tourism and Hospitality Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Intl. J. of Development Issues     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Intl. J. of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.337, h-index: 4)
Intl. J. of Educational Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Intl. J. of Emergency Services     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Intl. J. of Emerging Markets     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Intl. J. of Energy Sector Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.249, h-index: 6)
Intl. J. of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.441, h-index: 16)
Intl. J. of Event and Festival Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)

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Journal Cover foresight
   [9 followers]  Follow    
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
     ISSN (Print) 1463-6689
     Published by Emerald Homepage  [308 journals]   [SJR: 0.47]   [H-I: 14]
  • Descent pathways
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014. Purpose The special issue has two main purposes. The first is to highlight the need for wider understanding of the ‘civilisational challenge’ facing humanity as it encounters and then exceeds significant limits to growth. The second is to present material that provides grounds for developing effective responses. Design/methodology/approach The issue draws on evidence from previous research, economic modeling and a range of other sources to investigate the hypothesis that humanity is heading toward an ‘overshoot and collapse’ future. It further suggests that a useful way of responding is to explore the possibility that the prospect of collapse can be moderated or avoided through a process of ‘conscious descent.’ Findings The main findings are that a very wide spectrum of policies, actions, strategies and options is available that can and should be employed to help us avoid the most disastrous manifestations of ‘overshoot and collapse.’ Yet there are also many barriers and impediments that continue to inhibit effective responses. This means that the process of coming to grips with the ‘civilisational challenge’ will take longer and become increasingly costly. Denialism and short term thinking remain embedded in dominant institutions and mainstream practice. Currently vastly more is miss-spent on various perverse incentives (e.g. advertising, the funding of denial, fossil fuel subsidies) than on securing the future of civilisation. This can be seen as a consequence of outdated values and inadequate worldviews. Research limitations/implications The contributions here represent a sample from within a rapidly expanding field of enquiry and action. They should therefore be seen as indicating the need for further high quality investigation, work and action. The main implication is that this process needs to be taken seriously, properly resourced and eventually transformed into a mainstream social project. Originality/value The papers are contributions to an in-depth understanding of a complex and evolving situation. Their value lies in the fact that greater understanding and a commitment to early action are among the most productive investments available to societies vulnerable to the systemic threats outlined here. As such the special issue evokes a fundamental tenet of foresight work in general. Or to put this in the words of Bertrand de Jouvenel ‘the proof of improvidence lies in falling under the empire of necessity.’
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:18 GMT
  • Future Earth: declining energy use and economic output
    • Authors: Patrick Moriarty et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014. Purpose To show that (a) the observed strong link between global economic output and primary energy use will continue in future, and (b) attempts to replace fossil fuels with alternative energy sources or implementing CO2 removal or geoengineering approaches cannot provide the level of clean energy that economic growth needs. Global economic growth therefore is unlikely to continue for much longer Design/methodology/approach The paper uses historical and recent global data (2012) for energy output from various sources, economic output, and CO2, emissions to make its case. Findings Alternative energy output is growing too slowly, and faces too many problems, to significantly change the energy mix in the coming decades. Continued use of fossil fuels requires either massive CO2 removal/sequestration or global solar radiation management. The first is too expensive and would take decades to be significant, the second carries risks, some already known and possibly also unknown ones. Practical implications The paper makes the case that technical fixes such as alternative fuels, energy efficiency improvements, carbon dioxide capture and solar radiation management will not be sufficient to prevent global climate change. Originality/value Most research argues that global energy intensity and carbon intensity will continue to fall. In contrast, we argue that the strong link observed between global economic output and primary energy use will most likely continue
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:18 GMT
  • Energy future beliefs: not the future we ordered
    • Authors: Sandra Geitz et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014.
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:18 GMT
  • Conjuring clean energy: exposing green assumptions in media and academia
    • Authors: Ozzie Zehner et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014. Purpose This research presents uncomfortable questions about the viability of alternative energy technologies, which arise during economic contraction but are scarcely addressed within media and academia. Design/methodology/approach The author identifies and graphically illustrates distinct differences between media coverage of energy production and energy reduction strategies during an oil price shock beginning in 2003. Findings In writing about alternative energy production, journalists employed promising storytelling and future-oriented language to frame these technologies as solutions to climate change. Meanwhile, journalists described energy reduction strategies using mundane language anchored in the present and not as strongly linked to climate change. For example, one in seven articles associated alternative energy production with energy independence. Only one in five thousand linked energy reduction strategies to energy independence. Research limitations/implications These observations loosely illustrate a pervasive energy production ethos (a reflexive network including behaviors, symbols, expectations, and material conditions). Considering this ethos during a time of economic contraction exposes hidden assumptions about alternative energy technologies and the fossil fuels that they are expected to replace, as well as numerous unasked questions. For instance, does the high cost of alternative energy ultimately reveal hidden fossil fuel use behind the curtain' Where does the high cost of alternative energy ultimately accrue, if not to fossil fuels (via labor, materials, etc.)' Practical implications This paper presents questions that journalists, policymakers, energy researchers, and students can use to critically assess energy narratives. Originality/value This paper critically explores numerous assumptions, which undergird belief that renewable energy production will ease hardship during transitions toward contraction and degrowth.
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:18 GMT
  • “New beginnings” within a new normal for the four futures
    • Authors: Jim Dator et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014. Purpose This paper offers real and explicit reasons for viewing the futures of humanity and Earth as positive, fulfilling, and meaningful, if humans view it as such and act to make it so. The paper incorporates the results of several recent research projects and activities that were based on the assumptions of an earlier paper titled, “The Unholy Trinity, Plus One”. It argues that the conclusions of the original paper are even more obvious and urgent than they were originally, and that while an “alternative futures” perspective must always be the basis of any statements about or actions towards the futures, the concerns of the Unholy Trinity, Plus One, are now part of a “new normal” that must be incorporated in each of the alternatives. This paper emphasizes that this “new normal” is, and must be prepared for as, a splendid opportunity for humans to start on new adventures; that one episode of human history (based on cheap and abundant energy, a benign environment, effective government, and continued economic growth) is over, and a world with different challenges and opportunities for New Beginnings has already opened up. It concludes by offering an example of how the transition might be approached and managed positively and effectively. Design/methodology/approach Both papers relied heavily on a combination of trend analysis and emerging issues analysis viewed through the lens of four generic alternative futures for understanding continuing trends and anticipating new, emerging issues, and for then formulating appropriate anticipatory responses to them. Findings Our fundamental findings reconfirm and deepen our original findings—that it is far too late to prevent or postpone the transformative effects of the Unholy Trinity, Plus One; that we must and can prepare for and welcome them as providing humans now and in the immediate futures with an opportunity for innovation, identity, meaning, and vibrant lives. Our research and practical experiences and simulations illuminated ways in which these positive future might be achieved. Research limitations/implications It is urgent that humans now turn their attention from either denying the fact of overwhelming change or trying to prop up old economic, governmental, and educational systems, and begin to invent new systems that are appropriate for making the transition from the old environment to new ones. Originality/value The main focus of the paper, in contrast to most that deal with this issue, is to encourage readers not only to consider the inevitability of rapid and extensive social, environmental, resource, and institutional change, but also, by viewing the situation as a positive, welcomed opportunity for innovation and improvement, actually to make it so.
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:17 GMT
  • Societies Beyond Oil: Oil Dregs and Social Futures
    • Authors: Katerina Psarikidou et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014.
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:17 GMT
  • Sense-making and acting for descent futures: human and cultural pathways
    • Authors: Joshua Floyd et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014. Purpose The article makes the case for continued opportunity for high levels of human well-being under descent conditions characterised by declining economic throughput and socio-political complexity. Design/methodology/approach Relationships between assumptions about human well-being formed within a modern industrial context, the guiding narratives attending these, and the broader cultural influence of ideas from the evolutionary sciences are examined. Alternative ways of making sense of these relationships are explored. The experiences of societies guided by cultural narratives based on different premises to those most influential in industrial societies are reviewed for their implications for human well-being under descent conditions. Findings Human experiences of well-being are principally a function of the sources of meaning and associated narratives by which members of a culture make sense of their situation, as these determine the nature of the material and energetic conditions required to live well. Under descent conditions, the narrative of progress that has supported viable societies during the 300 year period of industrial expansion is unlikely to continue serving humanity well. Collective participation in the renewal of guiding cultural narratives is a primary target for efforts to provide continued opportunities for high quality of life to all members of humanity. Practical implications The findings point towards specific characteristics of cultural sense-making narratives that may support viable human societies under descent conditions. Originality/value New connections are identified between perspectives based on biological evolutionary theory and the continued influence of the idea of progress in establishing default assumptions about prospects for human well-being under descent conditions. Experiences of non-industrial societies are taken as the basis for identifying opportunities for human well-being under far more modest material and energetic conditions than those available to the portion of humanity that presently enjoys benefits of industrial development that outweigh the attendant costs.
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:17 GMT
  • Voluntary simplification as an alternative to collapse
    • Authors: Samuel Alexander et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014. Purpose Joseph Tainter argues that ‘sustainability’ is about problem solving and that problem solving increases social complexity. But he also argues that social complexity requires energy and resources, and this implies that solving problems, including environmental problems, usually demands increases in energy and resource consumption, not reductions. For this reason Tainter argues that voluntary simplification – the strategy of choosing to reduce consumption – is not an available means of solving the problems of civilisation. This paper re-examines Tainter’s dismissal of the voluntary simplification strategy. Design/methodology/approach This paper briefly outlines Tainter’s theory of diminishing returns on complexity and lays out his arguments against voluntary simplification. The critical sections of the paper examine those arguments and find certain ambiguities in them that open up space of voluntary simplification. Findings Part of my disagreement with Tainter turns on differing notions of ‘sustainability’. Whereas Tainter seems to use sustainability to mean sustaining the existing civilisation, I use sustainability to mean changing the form of civilisation through voluntary simplification, insofar as that is required for humanity to operate within the carrying capacity of the planet. By exposing the indeterminate, value-laden nature of what constitutes a ‘problem’ and what constitutes an appropriate ‘solution’, it becomes clear that some societal problems can be dissolved rather than solved, that problems have various solutions, and that a society’s available energy supply can be redistributed to achieve voluntary simplification while still solving existing and on going problems. Originality/value Given that Tainter seems to accept that his own conception of sustainability will eventually lead to collapse, I feel he is wrong to be so dismissive of voluntary simplification as a strategy for potentially avoiding collapse. It is, I argue, our only alternative to collapse, and if that is so, voluntary simplification ought to be given our most rigorous attention and commitment, even if the chances of success to do not seem high at all. This paper provides a new analysis of the voluntary simplification strategy and shows that it holds more promise that Tainter appreciates.
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:17 GMT
  • The denial of limits and interior aspects of descent
    • Authors: Richard Slaughter et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 6, October 2014. Purpose The primary purposes of this paper are as follows. Part one examines the role of denialism in the context of proposals advanced through the much-abused Limits to Growth (LtG) project. Part two uses three sets of criteria (domains of reality, worldviews and values) to characterise some of the interior human and social aspects of the ‘denial machine.’ It uses these criteria to address some vital, but currently under-appreciated ‘interior’ aspects of descent. (N.B. A succinct 'primer' or overview of the concept an underpinning rationale for notions of 'descent pathways' is provided in the introduction to this special issue.) Design/methodology/approach The paper draws on a number of authoritative sources that track the dimensions of global change and, specifically, the ways that humanity is tracking toward Dystopian, overshoot-and-collapse futures. The significance of the Limits to Growth project is assessed in this context. Part two employs the criteria noted above to identify and open out the centrality of the human and cultural interiors. Findings Responses to the Limits to Growth project are shown to have deprived humanity of the clarity and will to respond effectively to the emerging global emergency. The rise of climate change denialism has followed suit and made effective responses increasingly difficult. A new focus, however, on some of the dynamics of reality domains, worldviews and values, clarifies both the nature of the problem and prefigures a range of solutions, some of which are briefly outlined. Research limitations/implications This is primarily a conceptual paper that suggests a range of practical responses. For example, re-purposing parts of the current IT infrastructure away from financial and economic indices to those tracking the health of the planet. Also translating the case put forward here for a new generation of Institutions of Foresight (IoFs) into real-world start-ups and examples. Further research is needed into the uses and limitation both of positive and negative views of futures. It is suggested that the latter have more value than is commonly realised. Practical implications As above. New uses for IT infrastructure based on worldcentric - rather than financial and economic worldviews. Designing and implementing a new generation of IoFs. Finding new ways to inform the public of impending Dystopian outcomes without exacerbating avoidance and depression Originality/value The paper draws together material from hitherto disparate sources to assess the Limits to Growth project. It also deploys key concepts from an Integral perspective that shed new light on human and cultural forces that determine how people respond to the prospect of Dystopian futures. In so doing it provides insight into why we are where we are and also into some of the means by which humanity can respond. Specifically, it suggests a shift from collapse narratives to those of descent.
      PubDate: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 23:17:16 GMT
  • A study of turbulence in the Swedish payment system – Is there a way
    • Authors: Niklas Arvidsson et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose The field of payments in Europe could benefit from renewal but is facing turbulence and great challenges concerning its future due to a variety of strong driving forces. This leads to uncertainty which makes actors – industrial as well as policy-making agencies – passive and reluctant to take needed steps that may realize a new playing field for payments. Design/methodology/approach The article uses scenario analysis methodology to propose a way forward if the field of payments is to move away from turbulence and instead embrace renewal. It is based on a literature study, interviews and workshops. Findings This article discusses and shows how the payment system is in a state of turbulence, which in itself may become a self-reinforcing negative process. The seemingly rational competitive actions that firms take in this situation may make the situation worse. The article also outlines critical action that must be taken to avoid this negative process. Research limitations/implications There is a need for research that integrates studies on innovation and renewal in the critical industries – banking, telecom and the system driving industries – to improve our understanding of possible synergies and/or obstacles to integrated, cross-industry innovation efforts. Such insights may also lay the foundation for the creation of a way to overcome turbulence. Practical implications The article advocates the need that critical actors collaborate to develop a new understanding – or common ground - of a future payment system. This will serve as a tool to identify obstacles and challenges, develop action and formulate agendas for different actors in and around the system. Based on the new common ground, actors are then free to formulate their own strategic agendas in a new competitive landscape in the field of payments. Originality/value The originality of this paper is to test to the idea that turbulence and the consequential inertia in the payment system is a result of the institutional set-up of the industry. In addition, the article uses causal texture theory and scenario analysis to understand turbulence and inertia in the payment system. This has to my knowledge not been done before.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:28:37 GMT
  • Y in the workplace: Comparative analysis of values, skills and perceptions
           of government communication amongst university students and government
    • Authors: Jeremy Berry et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose By analyzing similarities and differences between the Generation Y public relations student sample at a Western Canadian university and the working generations of a communications branch within a provincial government, specifically Generation Y, the article aims to advance understanding of the various and differing aspects of government communication as a means to determine where the various generations’ values converge and diverge and to forecast the future implications of the findings. Design/methodology/approach This comparative study uses data from two previous studies to identify and analyze trends among Generation Y communicators – both those in the university setting and those already working within government – specific to values, skills and perceptions of the government communication function. It asks: how do the values and opinions of Generation Y university public relations students compare and contrast with values and opinions from Generation Y communication staff within a provincial government' Findings As well as supporting some of the assumptions and previous findings relating to Generation Y, the findings from this purposive survey and subsequent comparative analysis offer a new and deeper understanding of the workplace needs and wants of those represented by the particular sample. The findings also provide a glimpse into what the future of government communications might look like and the skills the next generation of employees will need to have. Research limitations/implications The sample size used in this article is small and purposive, and should not be read as representative. The intent is not to generalize broad populations and generations, but to add to knowledge in a very specific area. Practical implications The results of this study directly inform the practice of government communication by addressing current and future recruitment challenges. Originality/value A study of generational values within Canadian government communication has not been conducted previously by scholars and academics. This study fills a gap in the research and offers valuable insight for future research.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:28:34 GMT
  • “After 300 meters turn right” – The future of
           Russia’s GLONASS and the development of global satellite navigation
    • Authors: Mikhail B. Bokov et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) were designed to determine the exact location of objects on land, water and air for military purposes. With the opening of the satellite signal for civilian use, the technology created business opportunities for various applications. Today, satellite positioning technology is used by transporters, carriers, motorists, surveyors, builders, foresters etc. through a wide array of devices – like mobile phones or multimedia devices with built-in receiver modules. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides the results of a recently held foresight exercise on the future development of Russia’s GLONASS system. Findings The foresight exercise suggested a number niche markets where the Glonass technology could be of great use, like monitoring of buildings and construction sides or the monitoring of shipments. Also in the case of Russia, large-scale government-driven investment programs will be key drivers for Glonass’ growth perspectives. Originality/value The paper provides a comprehensive picture of the development of GNSS for civilian use until 2020.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:28:33 GMT
  • The Value of "Sociality"
    • Authors: Evgeniya Lukinova et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose Recent experimental evidence brought to light that the assumptions of the Prospect Theory by Kahneman and Tversky do not hold in the proposed substantive domain of “sociality”. In particular, the desire to be a part of the social environment, i.e. the environment where individuals make decisions among their peers, is not contingent on the framing. Evolutionary psychologists suggest that humans are “social animals” for adaptive reasons. However, entering a social relationship is inherently risky. Therefore, it is extremely important to know how much people value “sociality”, when the social outcomes are valued more than material outcomes and what kinds of adaptations people use. Design/methodology/approach We develop a new theory and propose the general utility function that features “sociality” component. We test the theory in the laboratory experiments, carried out in several countries. Findings Our results suggest that when stakes are low the theory of “sociality” is successful in predicting individual decisions: on average people do value “sociality” and it surpasses the monetary loss. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is the breakdown of the risk attitudes under low stakes and individual level of decision-making. Another advancement is the ability to formalize the social utility or the theory of “sociality” in an economic model: we use general utility function that we define both on the outcomes and on the process of the decision-making itself and test in laboratory studies.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:57 GMT
  • The Great Divide, Nature and Human Nature in the Old World and the
           New (review)
    • Authors: Jacques G RICHARDSON et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:57 GMT
  • The Futures of the Singapore Association of Social Workers: An analysis
           using CLA and the ‘Futures Triangle’
    • Authors: Gilbert Fan et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose In today’s rapidly changing world, professional associations have to re-evaluate their roles to remain relevant. This paper presents an analysis of findings from a study on the level of alliance of social workers with their professional association. By critically examining underlying issues beneath common beliefs held by social workers that impede, promote or sustain change with their professional association, we can gain a deeper understanding into their level of alliance with their association. Insights towards current issues faced by the association as well as its alternative and preferred futures could be illuminated. Design/methodology/approach Inayatullah’s ‘Futures Triangle’ was used to deepen the findings of the study on the level of alliance of social workers with their professional association from the lens of causal layered analysis (CLA) (Inayatullah, 2004). The study employed interviews with 27 social workers in Singapore, selected through purposive sampling. Findings Alternative scenarios and preferred futures of the Singapore Association of Social Workers (SASW) that were postulated from the interviews reinforce a need for more targeted recruitment campaigns. It also calls for regionalization and globalization of SASW in order to maximize its potentials. Originality/value The paper suggests how a social work association might be able to reposition its role in relation to its stakeholders to promote and sustain itself. SASW could do so through positioning itself as the ‘National Geographic’ beacon for social workers in Singapore to reach out to the world.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:54 GMT
  • Interactive Foresight on the Hungarian SMEs
    • Authors: Eva Hideg et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the development of knowledge economy in the Central Hungarian Region (CHR). Design/methodology/approach A methodology of interactive foresight process for creating regional future concepts is developed which is based on a specific meaning of integral futures and uses online solutions, too. Findings Personal meetings with SME stakeholders and the works of interactive communications with feedbacks within and among stakeholder groups was organized around our research homepage. The networking created the interconnection and the feedbacks between the stakeholders and the futurist group in the process of shaping regional future ideas. The online networking is running. Research limitations/implications The low number of stakeholders can limit the validity and acceptance of futures ideas created by this process. Practical implications The developed interactive foresight process can also be applicable at different organisational levels and in different fields for shaping shared future ideas. Originality/value A theoretically based interactive foresight process has been developed in which stakeholders can participate not only interactively in the foresight process, but they can implement the achievements in their enterprising activity as well. The participants were interested in foresight and co-operative during the whole process because they learned the use of foresight tools through collective solution of practical tasks which were important for them.
      PubDate: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:26:51 GMT
  • Meta-measures for Technology and Environment
    • Authors: Fred Young Phillips et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose Data for innovation management and policy must be valid, reliable, relevant and actionable. The paper examines the question: What shall we measure' and offers preliminary answers. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines trends within finance, environment, and institutions and society, all with regard to innovation and technology. It examines how these trends interact with each other and with measurement of innovation and socio-technical change. Findings In the future, measurement for innovation policy must occur in markedly different ways – and on quite different scales – than is currently the practice. The paper concludes with a future-oriented list of items to be measured, with preliminary guidelines on how to organize to measure them. Research limitations/implications Foresight researchers must put new emphasis on measurement. Practical implications Local and national statistical agencies will have to measure new indicators, and organize differently in order to measure them. Originality/value This concept paper goes beyond other indexes and proposals to identify new phenomena that must be measured. In contrast to other works which are oriented to measurement-push (toward policy), the present paper makes bold assertions about the trends needing to be addressed by policy, then proposes measurement based on policy-pull. It argues against premature worldwide statistical standards, and for Popperian “multiple engineering experiments.”
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:20:02 GMT
  • REVIEW: 2014 State of the Future, The Millennium Project (Washington,
           DC) Update on Strategic Planning for the Planet
    • Authors: William Halal et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:20:02 GMT
  • The alternative futures of the International Centre for Biosaline
           Agriculture: from salinity research to greening the desert
    • Authors: Sohail Inayatullah et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 5, August 2014. Purpose Based on a report for ICBA, the International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture, this article presents findings of the preferred visions, scenarios and strategies of stakeholders articulated at a workshop held in Dubai November 25-26th, 2012. Design/methodology/approach The "six pillars" approach to foresight was used to articulate visions of preferred futures of over fifty international stakeholders including representatives from the UAE Government, national and international donors, the private sector as well as leading scientists from universities and international scientific institutions. These visions were then translated into a strategic and business plan for ICBA. Findings The research center was successfully able to use foresight methods to develop a long term strategic plan, continuing its history of innovation in knowledge based research relating to saline and marginal environments. Novel visions and strategies for water and food futures were developed. A risk assessment of each vision was conducted. Research limitations/implications This case study presents visions with scenarios and strategic pathways. It illustrates the utility in setting long term visions first and then linking with strategic plans. Limitations include that the success of such a venture cannot be judged for at least five to six years. While in the short run, resources – human, partnerships, capital, leadership – have been mobilized, it is too soon to gauge real success of the foresight workshop, project. Practical implications Shows links between visions, scenarios and strategic pathways. Originality/value One of the few workshop oriented interventions in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) region using the anticipatory action learning six pillars framework. Contrasts to normal expert-based conferencing in the MENA region.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:19:58 GMT
  • Building an Innovation-driven Economy – the case of BRIC and GCC
    • Authors: Steffen Gackstatter et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose The paper undertakes an analysis of the attempts of GCC and BRIC countries to catch up in their national development to build an innovation-driven economy on which to base future growth and wealth. We conducted an analysis of GCC and BRIC countries to show the different strategies leaders have taken to try and achieve this aspiration. This paper analyses the various aspects of national innovation systems of BRIC and GCC countries, highlights similar and different approaches – and attempts to quantify their success. For example, GCC countries spend extensively on research and development, but have so far achieved less than meaningful results. Brazil, China and India are catching up to the acknowledged world leaders in innovation, but Russia is lagging. Design/methodology/approach Our comparison was based mostly on secondary data from sources and institutions that use statistical data to build country rankings, such as the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) produced by the World Economic Forum. BRIC and GCC countries were analyzed over the period 1996 – 2011 because most of the indicators data are only available from 1996. Data related to intellectual property rights have been collected since 1999 or 2000. The data available for the number of researchers proved problematic for both BRIC and GCC countries. For instance, some data for the GCC countries was missing. In order not to leave a gap, we extrapolated in line with the overall trend; using the least squares method to approximate a straight line for the missing data based on what had already been reported. Findings Counter-intuitively, we will argue that the push towards an innovation-based economy is actually not dependent on total expenditure on R&D, but rather relies on the efficient allocation of investments and the rigorous implementation of innovation strategy. And we will demonstrate this by showing our ideas in relation to both BRIC and GCC countries. This analysis raises fascinating points of discussion for those looking to build an innovation economy in other countries, and has practical implications for policy maker and policy implementers in all countries. Originality/value first analysis of the correlation of GERD with GDP growth and STI policy measures
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:18:15 GMT
  • Road-mapping the business potential of sustainability within the European
           manufacturing industry
    • Authors: Katri Valkokari et al
      Abstract: foresight, Volume 16, Issue 4, August 2014. Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore the required changes, outline business potential, and envisage the key steps that a networked manufacturing industry needs to take in order to reach more sustainably performing manufacturing in the future. Design/methodology/approach The paper utilises a visionary road-mapping approach to study the required changes and the business potential related to sustainable development in the manufacturing industry. Findings The results were summarised in three sub-roadmaps: i) empowerment of stakeholders, ii) increase efficiency, and iii) creation of new performance criteria. On the basis of the summary of the sub-roadmaps the framework was configured in order to described the opportunities and challenges of sustainable business development in the European manufacturing industry. Research limitations/implications A clear implication of this study is that a more system-oriented approach, new models for collaboration between network actors, and transparently shared network-level KPIs are required before further steps toward a sustainable manufacturing industry can be taken. In addition, sustainability-driven business models are required, to specify these changes concretely. Practical implications The presented sub-roadmaps and framework summarising them could provide new insights to business practioners exploring business potential of sustainability. Originality/value Studies of sustainability within the manufacturing industry have focused mainly on green issues in supply-chain management or corporation-level governance models and reporting practices. The paper presents a broader view of sustainable development and recognises networked business as part of the solution.
      PubDate: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:18:10 GMT
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