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Publisher: Elsevier   (Total: 3160 journals)

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Showing 1 - 200 of 3160 Journals sorted alphabetically
Academic Pediatrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 37, SJR: 1.655, CiteScore: 2)
Academic Radiology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 1.015, CiteScore: 2)
Accident Analysis & Prevention     Partially Free   (Followers: 97, SJR: 1.462, CiteScore: 3)
Accounting Forum     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.932, CiteScore: 2)
Accounting, Organizations and Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 37, SJR: 1.771, CiteScore: 3)
Achievements in the Life Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Acta Anaesthesiologica Taiwanica     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Acta Astronautica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 427, SJR: 0.758, CiteScore: 2)
Acta Automatica Sinica     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Acta Biomaterialia     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 1.967, CiteScore: 7)
Acta Colombiana de Cuidado Intensivo     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Acta de Investigación Psicológica     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Acta Ecologica Sinica     Open Access   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.18, CiteScore: 1)
Acta Haematologica Polonica     Free   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.128, CiteScore: 0)
Acta Histochemica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.661, CiteScore: 2)
Acta Materialia     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 288, SJR: 3.263, CiteScore: 6)
Acta Mathematica Scientia     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.504, CiteScore: 1)
Acta Mechanica Solida Sinica     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.542, CiteScore: 1)
Acta Oecologica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.834, CiteScore: 2)
Acta Otorrinolaringologica (English Edition)     Full-text available via subscription  
Acta Otorrinolaringológica Española     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.307, CiteScore: 0)
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 1.793, CiteScore: 6)
Acta Poética     Open Access   (Followers: 4, SJR: 0.101, CiteScore: 0)
Acta Psychologica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27, SJR: 1.331, CiteScore: 2)
Acta Sociológica     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Acta Tropica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 1.052, CiteScore: 2)
Acta Urológica Portuguesa     Open Access  
Actas Dermo-Sifiliograficas     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.374, CiteScore: 1)
Actas Dermo-Sifiliográficas (English Edition)     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Actas Urológicas Españolas     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.344, CiteScore: 1)
Actas Urológicas Españolas (English Edition)     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Actualites Pharmaceutiques     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.19, CiteScore: 0)
Actualites Pharmaceutiques Hospitalieres     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Acupuncture and Related Therapies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Acute Pain     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15, SJR: 2.671, CiteScore: 5)
Ad Hoc Networks     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 0.53, CiteScore: 4)
Addictive Behaviors     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 1.29, CiteScore: 3)
Addictive Behaviors Reports     Open Access   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.755, CiteScore: 2)
Additive Manufacturing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 2.611, CiteScore: 8)
Additives for Polymers     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 23)
Advanced Drug Delivery Reviews     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 176, SJR: 4.09, CiteScore: 13)
Advanced Engineering Informatics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 1.167, CiteScore: 4)
Advanced Powder Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 0.694, CiteScore: 3)
Advances in Accounting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9, SJR: 0.277, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Agronomy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16, SJR: 2.384, CiteScore: 5)
Advances in Anesthesia     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.126, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Antiviral Drug Design     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Advances in Applied Mathematics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.992, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Applied Mechanics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11, SJR: 1.551, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Applied Microbiology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 24, SJR: 2.089, CiteScore: 5)
Advances In Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.572, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Biological Regulation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 2.61, CiteScore: 7)
Advances in Botanical Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.686, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Cancer Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 32, SJR: 3.043, CiteScore: 6)
Advances in Carbohydrate Chemistry and Biochemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 9, SJR: 1.453, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Catalysis     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5, SJR: 1.992, CiteScore: 5)
Advances in Cell Aging and Gerontology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Advances in Cellular and Molecular Biology of Membranes and Organelles     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 14)
Advances in Chemical Engineering     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 28, SJR: 0.156, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Child Development and Behavior     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.713, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Chronic Kidney Disease     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 1.316, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Clinical Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 26, SJR: 1.562, CiteScore: 3)
Advances in Colloid and Interface Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 20, SJR: 1.977, CiteScore: 8)
Advances in Computers     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 14, SJR: 0.205, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Dermatology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Advances in Developmental Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 13)
Advances in Digestive Medicine     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Advances in DNA Sequence-Specific Agents     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
Advances in Drug Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 26)
Advances in Ecological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 43, SJR: 2.524, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Engineering Software     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29, SJR: 1.159, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Experimental Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Advances in Experimental Social Psychology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 49, SJR: 5.39, CiteScore: 8)
Advances in Exploration Geophysics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Advances in Fluorine Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 9)
Advances in Food and Nutrition Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 61, SJR: 0.591, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Fuel Cells     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 17)
Advances in Genetics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 20, SJR: 1.354, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Genome Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 12.74, CiteScore: 13)
Advances in Geophysics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6, SJR: 1.193, CiteScore: 3)
Advances in Heat Transfer     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 24, SJR: 0.368, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Heterocyclic Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.749, CiteScore: 3)
Advances in Human Factors/Ergonomics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 23)
Advances in Imaging and Electron Physics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.193, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Immunology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 36, SJR: 4.433, CiteScore: 6)
Advances in Inorganic Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 1.163, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Insect Physiology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2, SJR: 1.938, CiteScore: 3)
Advances in Integrative Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.176, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Intl. Accounting     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Advances in Life Course Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.682, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Lipobiology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Advances in Magnetic and Optical Resonance     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Advances in Marine Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 18, SJR: 0.88, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Mathematics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11, SJR: 3.027, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Medical Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.694, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Medicinal Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Advances in Microbial Physiology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4, SJR: 1.158, CiteScore: 3)
Advances in Molecular and Cell Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 23)
Advances in Molecular and Cellular Endocrinology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Advances in Molecular Toxicology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.182, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Nanoporous Materials     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Advances in Oncobiology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Advances in Organ Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Advances in Organometallic Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 17, SJR: 1.875, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Parallel Computing     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7, SJR: 0.174, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Parasitology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5, SJR: 1.579, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Pediatrics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.461, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Pharmaceutical Sciences     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 12)
Advances in Pharmacology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16, SJR: 1.536, CiteScore: 3)
Advances in Physical Organic Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.574, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Phytomedicine     Full-text available via subscription  
Advances in Planar Lipid Bilayers and Liposomes     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.109, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Plant Biochemistry and Molecular Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10)
Advances in Plant Pathology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Advances in Porous Media     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Advances in Protein Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 19)
Advances in Protein Chemistry and Structural Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.791, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Psychology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 66)
Advances in Quantum Chemistry     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.371, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Radiation Oncology     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.263, CiteScore: 1)
Advances in Small Animal Medicine and Surgery     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.101, CiteScore: 0)
Advances in Space Biology and Medicine     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6)
Advances in Space Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 413, SJR: 0.569, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in Structural Biology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
Advances in Surgery     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.555, CiteScore: 2)
Advances in the Study of Behavior     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 35, SJR: 2.208, CiteScore: 4)
Advances in Veterinary Medicine     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 19)
Advances in Veterinary Science and Comparative Medicine     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Advances in Virus Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5, SJR: 2.262, CiteScore: 5)
Advances in Water Resources     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 49, SJR: 1.551, CiteScore: 3)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 1.117, CiteScore: 3)
Aerospace Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 362, SJR: 0.796, CiteScore: 3)
AEU - Intl. J. of Electronics and Communications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8, SJR: 0.42, CiteScore: 2)
African J. of Emergency Medicine     Open Access   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.296, CiteScore: 0)
Ageing Research Reviews     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11, SJR: 3.671, CiteScore: 9)
Aggression and Violent Behavior     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 470, SJR: 1.238, CiteScore: 3)
Agri Gene     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.13, CiteScore: 0)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17, SJR: 1.818, CiteScore: 5)
Agricultural Systems     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31, SJR: 1.156, CiteScore: 4)
Agricultural Water Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43, SJR: 1.272, CiteScore: 3)
Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Agriculture and Natural Resources     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 58, SJR: 1.747, CiteScore: 4)
Ain Shams Engineering J.     Open Access   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.589, CiteScore: 3)
Air Medical J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.26, CiteScore: 0)
AKCE Intl. J. of Graphs and Combinatorics     Open Access   (SJR: 0.19, CiteScore: 0)
Alcohol     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 1.153, CiteScore: 3)
Alcoholism and Drug Addiction     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Alergologia Polska : Polish J. of Allergology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Alexandria Engineering J.     Open Access   (Followers: 2, SJR: 0.604, CiteScore: 3)
Alexandria J. of Medicine     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.191, CiteScore: 1)
Algal Research     Partially Free   (Followers: 11, SJR: 1.142, CiteScore: 4)
Alkaloids: Chemical and Biological Perspectives     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Allergologia et Immunopathologia     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.504, CiteScore: 1)
Allergology Intl.     Open Access   (Followers: 5, SJR: 1.148, CiteScore: 2)
Alpha Omegan     Full-text available via subscription   (SJR: 3.521, CiteScore: 6)
ALTER - European J. of Disability Research / Revue Européenne de Recherche sur le Handicap     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 10, SJR: 0.201, CiteScore: 1)
Alzheimer's & Dementia     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 52, SJR: 4.66, CiteScore: 10)
Alzheimer's & Dementia: Diagnosis, Assessment & Disease Monitoring     Open Access   (Followers: 4, SJR: 1.796, CiteScore: 4)
Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions     Open Access   (Followers: 4, SJR: 1.108, CiteScore: 3)
Ambulatory Pediatrics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
American Heart J.     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 57, SJR: 3.267, CiteScore: 4)
American J. of Cardiology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 62, SJR: 1.93, CiteScore: 3)
American J. of Emergency Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44, SJR: 0.604, CiteScore: 1)
American J. of Geriatric Pharmacotherapy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11)
American J. of Geriatric Psychiatry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13, SJR: 1.524, CiteScore: 3)
American J. of Human Genetics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34, SJR: 7.45, CiteScore: 8)
American J. of Infection Control     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29, SJR: 1.062, CiteScore: 2)
American J. of Kidney Diseases     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35, SJR: 2.973, CiteScore: 4)
American J. of Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 48)
American J. of Medicine Supplements     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3, SJR: 1.967, CiteScore: 2)
American J. of Obstetrics and Gynecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 231, SJR: 2.7, CiteScore: 4)
American J. of Ophthalmology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 66, SJR: 3.184, CiteScore: 4)
American J. of Ophthalmology Case Reports     Open Access   (Followers: 5, SJR: 0.265, CiteScore: 0)
American J. of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6, SJR: 1.289, CiteScore: 1)
American J. of Otolaryngology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 25, SJR: 0.59, CiteScore: 1)
American J. of Pathology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29, SJR: 2.139, CiteScore: 4)
American J. of Preventive Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28, SJR: 2.164, CiteScore: 4)
American J. of Surgery     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 39, SJR: 1.141, CiteScore: 2)
American J. of the Medical Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.767, CiteScore: 1)
Ampersand : An Intl. J. of General and Applied Linguistics     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Anaerobe     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4, SJR: 1.144, CiteScore: 3)
Anaesthesia & Intensive Care Medicine     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 63, SJR: 0.138, CiteScore: 0)
Anaesthesia Critical Care & Pain Medicine     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 20, SJR: 0.411, CiteScore: 1)
Anales de Cirugia Vascular     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Anales de Pediatría     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3, SJR: 0.277, CiteScore: 0)
Anales de Pediatría (English Edition)     Full-text available via subscription  
Anales de Pediatría Continuada     Full-text available via subscription  
Analytic Methods in Accident Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5, SJR: 4.849, CiteScore: 10)
Analytica Chimica Acta     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44, SJR: 1.512, CiteScore: 5)
Analytica Chimica Acta : X     Open Access  
Analytical Biochemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 200, SJR: 0.633, CiteScore: 2)
Analytical Chemistry Research     Open Access   (Followers: 12, SJR: 0.411, CiteScore: 2)
Analytical Spectroscopy Library     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 14)
Anesthésie & Réanimation     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Anesthesiology Clinics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 23, SJR: 0.683, CiteScore: 2)
Angiología     Full-text available via subscription   (SJR: 0.121, CiteScore: 0)
Angiologia e Cirurgia Vascular     Open Access   (Followers: 1, SJR: 0.111, CiteScore: 0)
Animal Behaviour     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 206, SJR: 1.58, CiteScore: 3)
Animal Feed Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6, SJR: 0.937, CiteScore: 2)

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Similar Journals
Journal Cover
Agricultural Systems
Journal Prestige (SJR): 1.156
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 31  
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 0308-521X
Published by Elsevier Homepage  [3160 journals]
  • Strategies to improve the productivity, product diversity and
           profitability of urban agriculture
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): C.A. O'Sullivan, G.D. Bonnett, C.L. McIntyre, Z. Hochman, A.P. Wasson The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that more than 800 million people engage in urban agriculture producing more than 15% of the world's food. Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in urban agriculture in many wealthy, developed cities, with new technology and agro-architecture being employed to grow food in cities at commercial scale. This has been accompanied by an increase in media coverage. Big claims are being made, including that urban agriculture can decrease greenhouse emissions, ‘climate proof’ farms, help solve food security for growing urban populations and provide chemical free food with no risk of pests and diseases. Many of these claims need to be rigorously tested to ensure that sound investments can be made in enterprises that are financially viable and capable of delivering on claims of social and environmental benefits. Around the world, traditional broadacre and horticulture farming have been underpinned by years of biological, chemical, physical, economic and social research. Urban agriculture needs similar support as the industry grows and develops around the world. There are opportunities to improve crop yields and quality by pairing advancements in environmental controls, phenomics and automation with breeding efforts to adapt traits for architecture, development and quality (taste and nutrition) allowing a more diverse set of crops to be grown in controlled-environment farms. Urban farms are uniquely placed to take advantage of urban waste energy, water and nutrients but innovations are needed to use these resources safely and economically. This review discusses the technological research and innovations necessary for urban agriculture to meet the nutritional requirements of growing urban populations.
  • The effect of ewe wastage in New Zealand sheep and beef farms on flock
           productivity and farm profitability
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): L.J. Farrell, P.R. Tozer, P.R. Kenyon, T. Ramilan, L.M. Cranston Changes in the relative value of meat and coarse wool have led to the majority of income for New Zealand sheep farms now coming from the sale of animals for slaughter rather than wool, shifting the production focus for many farmers. Ewe wastage, on-farm mortality and premature culling before the potential end of the ewe's productive life, is a limiting factor for sheep meat production. Current estimates of wastage rates in New Zealand commercial ewe flocks range from approximately 3 to 20%. A bio-economic model of a representative New Zealand North Island Hill Country sheep farm was constructed to investigate the effects of wastage rates on farm profitability. The model used system dynamics with annual time steps over 30 years. The proportion of ewes that were culled up to 6 years of age and all mature ewe deaths combined were considered as wastage in this study. Modelled scenarios covered ewe wastage rates ranging from 5 to 21% for a self-replacing flock of 1879 ewes producing coarse wool and lambs for sale on 423 ha where 63% of total feed was consumed by sheep. Greater wastage of ewes resulted in higher numbers of young, less productive replacement ewes in the flock, lowering average flock age from 4.18 years to 3.54 years over the wastage rate range tested. The reproductive performance of the flock decreased with flock age from 1.33 lambs weaned per ewe presented for breeding to 1.22 lambs weaned per ewe presented for breeding with wastage rates of 5% and 21%, respectively. The lower numbers of lambs weaned and lower proportion available for sale reduced income from lamb sales. Subsequently, total cash operating surplus for the sheep enterprise of the representative farm was reduced by NZ$ 1069 per year per 1% increase in ewe wastage. For a New Zealand North Island Hill Country sheep farm with 15% of the flock lost due to wastage, a 10% reduction in wastage could increase cash profit by 17%. Sheep energy requirements were reduced across the production year with greater ewe wastage leading to a greater positive end of year cumulative feed surplus.
  • An analysis of geographic and product diversification in crop planning
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): G. Villa, B. Adenso-Díaz, S. Lozano An empirical study of the factors that influence the optimal degree of geographic and product diversification to use as a risk mitigant in agriculture planning is carried out using a simple crop planning optimisation model that maximises the expected profit. The factors considered include the distance between the available plots, the amount and variability of spoilage risk, the yield variability and the variance in the produce selling prices. We propose a new metric, based on the entropy concept, for quantifying the geographic diversification. The degree of geographic and product diversification of the optimal plan, as well as the profit level, the overall percentage of demand satisfied and the number of plots unused, are studied. The results show that the optimal combination of the two types of diversification (geographic and product) are dependent on the specific scenario considered, and the factor that has the largest influence on the degree of geographic and product diversification is the separation between the plots. A similar effect is in the variance of the selling prices. Also, as the geographic diversification of the optimal solution increases so does its product diversification and its profit level. The profit level decreases significantly as the separation between the plots and the average spoilage risk increases. Other effects that are worth mentioning are the reduction in the percentage of demand satisfied as the separation between the plots increases, and when the variance in the selling prices increases.
  • Performance of pasture-based dairy systems subject to economic, climatic
           and regulatory uncertainty
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): Pierre C. Beukes, Alvaro J. Romera, Mark Neal, Kim Mashlan Viable pasture-based dairy businesses need to cope with increasing variability in milk price, extremes in weather, and an uncertain regulatory environment that may impose disruptive mitigations. This modelling study was designed to assess system performance in response to price and climate variability of three pasture-only systems, 12-month, 6-month and 3-month, each with a range of stocking rates. We used a combination of six metrics to assess the systems. Higher stocking rate systems were more exposed to climate and economic risk, but performed better in terms of production, profit and equity growth. The lower stocking rate systems showed lower environmental footprint and variability of operating profit, but also lower production, profit and equity growth. Intermediate systems, with average performance in all six metrics, were somewhere between 2.7 and 3.2 cows/ha for the dairy region explored here, irrespective of pasture-only regime. System choice will depend on the operator's perception of sources of uncertainty, and how they intend to cope with these uncertainties. With greater environmental pressure, systems will have to lean towards lower stocking rates and input, while pressure for financial performance will drive the system in the opposite direction. It is clear that there is no system that “has it all”.
  • Legume diversification and weed management in African cereal-based systems
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): Timothy R. Silberg, Vimbayi Grace Petrova Chimonyo, Robert B. Richardson, Sieglinde S. Snapp, Karen Renner Weed abundance in cereal-based systems has increased in recent years across sub-Saharan Africa for smallholder farmers (cultivating less than two hectares). Smallholders can employ numerous practices to control weeds such as intercropping cereal crops with legumes. We conducted a review to identify the possible mechanisms responsible for weed control according to legume species, weed species and agroecosystem. In the review, we first present common weed species found in specific agroecological contexts. Then, we propose several legume intercrops that provide some control of these species and the reasons why. Finally, we highlight possible social and biophysical tradeoffs for cultivating legumes as a weed control practice in smallholder cereal systems. The review found that while many studies explained the effect a certain legume-intercrop had upon weeds (e.g., emergence rates), few identified the mechanism or mechanisms (e.g., increased predation) behind their control. Without understanding these mechanisms, it is difficult to propose management recommendations for intercropping (e.g., seeding rates). Furthermore, few studies have investigated how legume intercrops affect multiple components of farming systems, including the smallholders that cultivate them. Determining how these components connect and impose tradeoffs for smallholders unveils the drivers (or barriers) behind legume intercropping as a weed control practice.
  • Unexploited potential to diversify monotonous crop sequencing at high
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio, Lauri Jauhiainen Cereal-based rotations dominate the prime production regions of Finland without any signs of noteworthy shifts towards more diverse systems. To estimate the potential for the future expansion of more diverse crop rotations we used multinomial logistic regression to model the probability that a field parcel would suit for crops other than cereals by acknowledging farmer's preferences in land allocation depending on field parcel characteristics (size, shape, slope, distance to farm center, proximity to waterway, soil type and ownership). This study covered ca. 700,000 field parcels in the prime production region and all the farm types. We identified parcels that were currently used for pure cereal rotations but were also suitable for the cultivation of more diverse crops, especially rapeseed and grain legumes as the most potential ones. There was substantial potential to shift from the current cereal rotations towards more diverse crop sequencing patterns in all farm types, but especially on pig, poultry and cereal farms, where some 18–20% of the cereal monoculture rotations could be shifted towards break crop rotations and 24–41% to diverse rotations. The diversification potential was dependent on the farm size and was higher on large farms with more suitable land for minor crops and with better logistic advantages. Hence, the ongoing increase in farm size and reduction in the number of farms could further support the transition towards more diverse crop sequencing. Diversity in both crop rotation and the agricultural landscape can be achieved simultaneously. Due to the characteristics of field parcels allocated to perennial grasslands and green-fallow rotations they were not suitable for diversifying arable crops. To enhance use of more diverse crop rotations, coherent policies and sufficient incentives are needed to encourage farmers to exploit the existing potential in a timely fashion despite the current socio-economically challenging situation that farmers are facing in Finland.Graphical abstractUnlabelled Image
  • Farm-household financial interactions: A case-study from Flanders, Belgium
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): Erwin Wauters, Yann de Mey Farm-household financial interactions (FHFI), the intermingling of business finances with household finances, is a largely uninvestigated phenomenon in Europe. This is partly because of data scarcity as the main farm-level accounting database, the FADN, does not include financial information at the household level. Based on primary survey data from Flanders (Belgium), we develop a proxy indicator for FHFI and explore its determinants and impact on future farm performance. Our results show substantive FHFI within Flemish farm households. The results further suggest that it could be interpreted as a deliberate risk management strategy, as we observe greater FHFI in farms operated by more risk averse farmers and with higher levels of financial risk. Nevertheless, more intense FHFI are associated with lower future farm performance. Hence, questions relating to its effect on long-term survival and adaptive capacity remain.
  • Scaling modern technology or scaling exclusion' The socio-political
           dynamics of accessing in malt barley innovation in two highland
           communities in Southern Ethiopia
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): Nina de Roo, Conny Almekinders, Cees Leeuwis, Tewodros Tefera In this article we explore whether and how the dynamics of access shape the scaling of modern agricultural technologies. It is based on the experience of an agricultural research for development (AR4D) project called CASCAPE, which aims to validate and scale agricultural best practices for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. The socio-political dynamics of external interventions are often taken for granted contextual factors in AR4D projects. By contrast, this article takes this context as the point of departure for its analysis. The aim of this in-depth case study is to unpack the concept of access as condition for scaling of agricultural technologies. We identify and analyse the mechanisms that determine access to the various components of a malt barley technology package which was introduced in two highland communities in southern Ethiopia (and later ‘scaled’ to a range of other communities). Our research approach is technographic, implying that we consider the technology to contain both material and social components. The findings suggest that social and clan-based exchange mechanisms (such as clan-based loyalty, reciprocity and vertical accountability) are often rendered invisible even though they are of critical importance in governing access to the material and social components of modern agricultural technologies. Ignoring this socio-political context in the malt barley interventions resulted in an unintended scaling effect in terms of widening the social and economic gap between a few better off farmers and a larger group of poor farmers. The paper thus provides evidence that the socio-political dynamics of access to technology can have an important influence on its wide spread application and may complicate efforts to scale the uptake of technology. Paying more attention to such processes would help to improve the effectiveness of AR4D efforts.
  • Is labour a major determinant of yield gaps in sub-Saharan Africa' A
           study of cereal-based production systems in Southern Ethiopia
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): João Vasco Silva, Frédéric Baudron, Pytrik Reidsma, Ken E. Giller We investigated the role of labour in explaining the yield gap of cereals at both crop and farm levels on smallholder farms in Southern Ethiopia. A household survey containing detailed information of labour use at crop and farm level of ca. 100 farms in a maize-based system around Hawassa and ca. 100 farms in a wheat-based system around Asella was used for this purpose. Stochastic frontier analysis was combined with the principles of production ecology to decompose maize and wheat yield gaps. Actual maize and wheat yields were on average 1.6 and 2.6 t ha−1, respectively, which correspond to 23 and 26% of the water-limited yield (Yw) of each crop. For both crops, nearly half of the yield gap was attributed to the technology yield gap, indicating sub-optimal crop management to achieve Yw even for the farmers with the highest yields. The efficiency yield gap was ca. 20% of Yw for both crops; it was negatively associated with sowing date and with the proportion of women's labour used for sowing in the case of maize but with the proportion of hired labour used for sowing and weed control in the case of wheat. The resource yield gap was less than 10% of Yw for both crops due to small differences in input use between highest- and lowest-yielding farms. The contribution of capital and farm power availability to crop yields, input use and labour use was analysed at the farm level. Labour calendars showed that crops cultivated in Hawassa were complementary, with peak labour occurring at different times of the year. By contrast, crops cultivated in Asella competed strongly for labour during sowing, hand-weeding and harvesting months, resulting in potential trade-offs at farm level. Oxen ownership was associated with capital availability, but not farm power in Hawassa and with both capital availability and farm power in Asella. Farmers with more oxen applied more nitrogen (N) to maize in Hawassa and cultivated more land in Asella, which is indicative of an intensification pathway in the former and an extensification pathway in the latter. Differences in land:labour ratio and in the types of crops cultivated explained the different strategies used in the two sites. In both sites, although gross margin per unit area increased linearly with increasing crop yield and farm N productivity, gross margin per labour unit increased up to an optimal level of crop yield and farm N productivity after which no further response was observed. This suggests that narrowing the yield gap may not be economically rational in terms of labour productivity. We conclude that labour (and farm power) is not a major determinant of maize yield gaps in Hawassa, but is a major determinant of wheat yield gaps in Asella.
  • Stakeholders prioritization of climate-smart agriculture interventions:
           Evaluation of a framework
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Anjali Pant, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Vijya Vardhan Vasireddy, Akhilesh Yadav This paper presents a framework to prioritize locally suitable climate-smart agricultural (CSA) interventions and implementation suitability assessments with key stakeholders: state and district agriculture departments, extension offices, agriculture research institutions, NGOs and donor agencies, private sector and farmers. Prioritization of appropriate interventions for given contexts is needed to assist relevant stakeholders to make strategic decisions and improve adaptability and efficiency of agriculture production system in the face of climate change and variability. First step includes participatory identification and evaluation of location specific CSA interventions suitable for different crop and cropping system with potential to reduce climatic risks in agriculture. All CSA interventions were evaluated based on their contribution to increase farm productivity and income, building resilience to changing climate and reduction of agricultural emissions. Second step includes evaluation of overall implementation feasibility of selected CSA interventions based on their technical feasibility, cost of implementation, inclusivity and synergy with current government programs. In the third step, potential barriers of CSA technology adoption were assessed linking with availability of resources, farmers' knowledge and acceptability, access to agriculture extensions service, market and government support. In the fourth step, incentive mechanisms to promote CSA interventions such as government subsidy, market linkage, provision of loan and capacity building were evaluated with farmers and key stakeholders. Finally, this prioritization framework assessed the role of different organizations such as the government, private sector, non-government organizations, custom hiring centers and community based organizations in promoting CSA interventions at the local level. Results show that this framework provides ample space for local stakeholders to integrate their knowledge and experience on CSA interventions in prioritization and investment planning. Stakeholders prioritized mainly water and nutrient management technologies, agriculture insurance against climatic risks and ICT based weather and agro-advisory services. This framework provides a decision support tool for policy-making in adaptation and mitigation activities in agriculture sector at the local level. This framework can be used by governments, development organizations and the private sector for investment decision-making.
  • Participatory innovation analysis along livestock value chains: Case of
           swine value chain in Benin
    • Abstract: Publication date: August 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 174Author(s): Benoît Govoeyi, Serge G. Ahounou, Aristide M. Agbokounou, Chakirath F.A. Salifou, Ignace O. Dotche, Pascal S. Kiki, Issaka Youssao Abdou Karim, Nicolas Antoine-Moussiaux Rural poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa remains a huge challenge despite the successive agricultural development policies, most of which have failed to involve stakeholders actively. The present rise of pork demand in Benin calls for an assessment of the swine value chain (VC) to envision its development. A participatory approach is here proposed to join this assessment to a stimulation of innovation among stakeholders. The approach is divided in four stages: i) identification of actors and direct links along the VC, ii) characterisation of innovation practices, iii) identification of bottlenecks and opportunities using innovation system framework, and iv) measurement of agreement among VC actors about constraints and value-added sharing, using proportional piling tool. A second survey, two full years after the first one, assessed the impact of actions conducted with VC actors. A typological analysis of innovation practices was conducted to define “innovation profiles” among each of the three main categories of actors: swine stockbreeders (n = 134), pork butchers (n = 45) and input suppliers (n = 25). Three innovation profiles were retained for each category, which may be understood as covering 2 distinct innovator profiles and one non-innovator profile. The profiles qualified as “innovators” accounted for 82%, 84%, and 76%, respectively in stockbreeders, pork butchers and input suppliers. The lack of professionalisation appeared to actors as the main constraint. The Kendall's coefficient of concordance (W) indicated that actors agreed to state that pork butchers gained the most part of the value-added, followed by input suppliers. The second survey showed favorable impacts of the approach and follow-up activities on exchanges and organisation within the VC. It is here advocated that the present participatory method, while characterising the value-chain in a rapid way, further sets the basis for the dialogue between actors and the stimulation of innovation along the VC, which can be further sustained through an exchange platform.
  • Assessment of flood recession agriculture for food security in Northern
           Ghana: An optimization modelling approach
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Bedru B. Balana, Safietou Sanfo, Bruno Barbier, Timothy Williams, Shashidhara Kolavalli Food insecurity is a recurrent problem in northern Ghana. Food grown during the rainy season is often insufficient to meet household food needs, with some households experiencing severe food insecurity for up to five months in a year. Flood recession agriculture (FRA) – an agricultural practice that relies on residual soil moisture and nutrients left by receding flood water – is ordinarily practiced by farmers along the floodplains of the White Volta River in northern Ghana under low-input low-output conditions. Opportunities abound to promote highly productive FRA as a means of extending the growing season beyond the short rainy season (from May to September) into the dry season and thereby increase household income and food security of smallholder farmers. This study uses an optimization modelling approach to explore this potential by analyzing the crop mix and agricultural water management options that will maximize household income and enhance food security. Results indicate that growing cowpea, groundnut and melon under residual-moisture based FRA and high value crops (onion, pepper, and tomato) under supplementary irrigation FRA maximize household income and food security. The cash income from the sale of FRA crops was sufficient to purchase food items that ensure consumption smoothing during the food-insecure months. The study concludes that the full potential of FRA will be realized through a careful selection of crop mixtures and by enhancing access of farmers to improved seeds, integrated pest management and credit and mainstreaming FRA through targeted policy interventions and institutional support.
  • Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops
           under various climate change scenarios
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Rodrigo Soares Ramos, Lalit Kumar, Farzin Shabani, Marcelo Coutinho Picanço Species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable for the information they provide to reduce the potential negative effects of climatic factors on agricultural production systems. Such information may be used to prevent the entry and spread of invasive species in new areas, as well as to monitor regions with current occurrence. This is the first study of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) global distribution, focusing on the risk of this disease in areas projected to be suitable for open field tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) and for whitefly (Bemisia tabaci - biotypes B and Q). TYLCV (Begomovirus) is an important virus transmitted by B. tabaci and poses a risk to S. lycopersicum cultivation worldwide. Despite the importance of TYLCV, the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of TYLCV in agricultural crops remains unstudied. The aim of this study was to identify the invasion risk levels for TYLCV in areas optimally conducive for open field tomato cultivation and suitable for B. tabaci (biotypes B and Q) under projected climate changes for the years 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model (HadGEM2_ES, MIROC5 and CCSM4) under four scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our results show that large regions are projected to be suitable for TYLCV in areas of suitability for B. tabaci and optimal for open field tomato cultivation. In the predictions, most areas with optimal conditions for S. lycopersicum and suitable for B. tabaci will be under medium suitability for TYLCV under climate change scenarios. This research may be useful to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of TYLCV where the occurrence has not yet been reported.
  • Improved crop forecasts for the Australian macadamia industry from
           ensemble models
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): David G. Mayer, Kerri A. Chandra, Jolyon R. Burnett Annual forecasts for the Australian macadamia crop have been issued since 2001, with varying (and not always improving) degrees of accuracy. Regression models using climate variables have formed the basis for these forecasts, with general linear model (GLM) ensembles being adopted more recently. This has proven to be a challenging task, as there are only a small number of observations (18) combined with a large number (90+) of independent variables – these being different climate measures for different times of the year (representing ‘key physiological periods for macadamia trees’). Also, these ‘assumedly-independent’ variables contain various degrees of correlation. This study uses cross-validation, with the most recent data for the two dominant production regions of Australia (Lismore and Bundaberg), to investigate the relative performance of alternate modelling methods. These modelling methods were GLMs, partial least squares (PLS) regression and LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) penalised regression. Model ensembles, which have been shown to be beneficial in many alternate disciplines, are used to advantage. Both GLMs and PLS produced quite-disappointing results, failing to meet the project's benchmarked accuracy of ±10% error. The optimal LASSO models performed notably better, with a further improvement when ensembles were incorporated. The lowest mean absolute error (MAE) rates here were 9.0% for Lismore and 5.9% for Bundaberg. Hence LASSO ensembles will be adopted for future forecasts of the Australian macadamia crop.
  • From plot to scale: ex-ante assessment of conservation
           agriculture in Zambia
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Adam M. Komarek, Hoyoung Kwon, Beliyou Haile, Christian Thierfelder, Munyaradzi J. Mutenje, Carlo Azzarri This study combined bottom-up and top-down approaches to assess the ex-ante effects of conservation agriculture (CA)-based systems in Zambia considering both biophysical and economic factors and prevailing farm systems characteristics. For continuous maize cropping we compared a CA-based system of no-tillage with crop residue retention to a control system of conventional tillage with crop residue removal. First, we simulated yield effects that were calibrated and evaluated against multiple datasets, including on-farm agronomic trials from two seasons and six sites. Next, we extrapolated our simulations to all maize-growing areas in Zambia using gridded climate and soil datasets. Then simulated yields (in kg ha−1) were combined with economic data from a nationally-representative household survey to construct economic indicators including benefit-cost ratios (based on gross benefits and variable costs both in $ ha−1) that captured the implicit value of crop residues and labor demands. The field scale (per ha) indicators were scaled out using harvested areas as an expansion factor. All indicators were calculated over 3-, 10-, and 20-year simulation periods using an interpolated sequence of historical climate data. Finally, we conducted a spatial farm typology analysis to help understand the spatial variation in our field-scale indicators and provide insights into trade-offs and the suitability of CA-based systems for farmers. Average changes in yield from using CA-based systems (compared with the control) at the district scale ranged from −37% to 70% (average 33%), with a similar range of changes in benefit-cost ratios once economic factors were included, in addition to intra-district yield variability. Combining the changes in benefit-cost ratios with maize harvested area resulted in an average annual change in district-scale net benefit ranging from US $ − 3.9 to US $9.9 million (with an average of US $1.1 million). The heterogeneity in biophysical and economic factors gave a ranking of provinces different according to biophysical or economic indicators, reinforcing the importance of coupling biophysical and economic approaches. The spatial farm typology analysis highlighted the specific contexts of farmers relevant to the suitability of CA, such as their mineral fertilizer applications rates, ownership of livestock, and prevailing soil texture and rainfall.
  • A rapid, spatially explicit approach to describe cropping systems dynamics
           at the regional scale
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Davide Rizzo, Olivier Therond, Romain Lardy, Clément Murgue, Delphine Leenhardt Land managers need spatially explicit information about agricultural practices to address issues that arise from the use of natural resources in agriculture. One main characteristic of agriculture is its great variability in space and time. However, describing the spatial distribution of “cropping systems”, i.e. crop sequences and crop management systems at the regional scale, remains a major scientific challenge. This study presents a new, simple and rapid approach to model the spatial distribution of irrigation management practices. It was developed in two large watersheds in southwestern France (about 1500 and 3000 km2). Based on a previous study consisting of 27 farmer interviews in a study area about one-sixth the size of these watersheds, we interviewed 12 key informants who had an integrative vision of the study area and spent only one-fourth as much time collecting and processing the relevant data. One major innovation was to combine knowledge from generic databases and ad-hoc intermediate objects, such as diagrams, tables and maps, to interact with the key informants. These objects helped them focus on specific local information that we had missed and facilitated data processing. Interview results were used to spatially allocate cropping systems formalized as dynamic IF-THEN decision rules. We evaluated our approach by using a cropping system model to simulate irrigation withdrawals over a ten-year period. Its predictions reproduced well annual amounts and inter-annual dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals recorded by the regional Water Agency. This approach, combining diagrams with IF-THEN rules, appears easy to adapt to study other areas and agricultural practices besides irrigation, as well as to manage annual and perennial crops.
  • The role of agriculture as a development tool for a regional economy
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Efstratios Loizou, Christos Karelakis, Konstantinos Galanopoulos, Konstadinos Mattas In any turbulent economic environment, sectors of economic activity behave and resist differently depending on the causes of the turbulence. Some sectors present a unique resistance in economic aberrations, have a resilient attitude and play the role of the stabilizer, supporting growth and employment. Such sectors are usually related with people basic needs; in the current economic crisis, the agriculture and food sector stand out. The present study endeavours to examine the potentials of agriculture in promoting an integrated development in a regional rural economy, through capturing and recording its interconnections with other sectors of economic activity. Input-Output analysis was applied along with the construction of a regional model intending to examine both the contribution of the primary sector in the regional economy, as well as the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform on the entire local economy. By employing an analytical tool, it is demonstrated that the impact of the new CAP is not limited to the primary sector, but it - directly and indirectly affects other sectors, as well as the total output, employment and household income of the region. Results suggest that agriculture is an important driver of growth throughout the region, contributing to the increase of the local gross output by approximately €300mil. only by the inflow of funds, while 14% of it is diffused into sectors other than agriculture.
  • Multi-criteria evolutionary algorithm optimization for horticulture crop
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Jason West Climate variability requires adaptive production systems in agriculture often resulting in significant irreversible investments. Cultivar replacement programs in horticulture orchards that substitute older varieties for more heat- and drought-resilient varieties have enterprise values that are highly sensitive to the timing of such investments. Farm-level replacement programs are subject to multiple constraints around debt serviceability, operating costs, the replacement cycle and the rate of degradation of the existing orchard. The maximization of enterprise value subject to multiple constraints can be reduced to a multi-objective optimization problem. Over long horizons this optimization process generates a very-large solution space. Using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm we examine uncertainties around climatic effects and the timing of investments for horticultural operations and derive the optimal times to adapt using cultivar replacement techniques. We find that the investment decision using traditional valuation methods is suboptimal and can result in poor decisions, potentially undermining adaptation efforts. We further show that opposing economic and climatic conditions can adversely impact enterprise value based on mistiming the investment decision. Application of the genetic algorithm solver is demonstrated using a vector-based geographic information system to a farm where individual portions of an orchard are subject to varying rates of production, degradation and age.
  • Quantification of environmental-economic trade-offs in nutrient management
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): William Kaye-Blake, Chris Schilling, Ross Monaghan, Ronaldo Vibart, Samuel Dennis, Elizabeth Post Nitrogen losses from agricultural are a key source of human impacts on the environment, and many countries have adopted policies to reduce nitrogen losses. Policy in New Zealand is being developed at the national and regional levels to address nitrogen losses and water quality. Several policy options were explored using a multi-agent simulation model of the Southland region of New Zealand in order to quantify the trade-off between the economic value of agricultural production and nitrogen losses from farming. It estimated the relative effectiveness and efficiency of alternative nitrogen mitigation policies while taking into account the heterogeneity of soil vulnerability to nitrogen leaching, land management options, and farmer behaviour. It used a hybrid modelling technique, assembling a multi-disciplinary model from outputs of other, specialised models, and using an agent-based approach to model land-use change. The policy options included uniform limits on nitrogen losses that applied across all farms, as well as differentiated policies that took into account either the propensity of a farm to leach nitrogen, past dairy conversion, or the type of land use. After 25 years, the impacts on dairy land area, nitrogen losses, agricultural production, and farm gross margin were compared with a baseline of no policy. The results suggested that policies worked better when they took account of the heterogeneity of agriculture practices and the environment. Those policies could be more effective at reducing nitrogen losses from farms, in term of the total mitigation in the region. They were also more efficient across the policies modelled: per kilogram of nitrogen mitigated, they produced the lowest economic costs. Choosing the right policy approach would be some combination of the absolute level of mitigation required, the historical patterns of land use, the variability of the absorptive capacity of the environment, the ability to spread the economic or environmental impacts across many farms and people, and the ability to specify required input or outputs. Most importantly, hybrid multi-agent simulation modelling provided a tool for examining the potential impacts of policies before they are implemented.
  • Analysis of enteric methane emissions due to extreme variations in
           management practices of dairy-production systems
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Tristan Senga Kiessé, Michael S. Corson, Maguy Eugène, Joël Aubin, Aurélie Wilfart This study concerns variability in agrosystem inputs that affect greenhouse gas emissions at the farm scale, when management practices differ from average practices. Many studies of agrosystems assume average management practices. However, existence of a wide variety of farm-management practices may result in extreme variations in estimated environmental impacts. This large variation raises the need to use statistical tools to model extreme situations and their consequences on agrosystems. For instance, methane emissions generated by enteric fermentation in dairy cattle are particularly studied because they are important at a global scale. We investigated how extreme variations in feeding practices in dairy production affect predicted methane emissions, using a methane-emission model based on existing equations that is easy to apply at the farm scale. In this study, extreme variations in the time that cattle spent grazing were propagated through three different dairy-production systems. For an intensive dairy farm, predicted methane emissions decreased up to 15% (ca. 5% on average) and increased up to 11% (ca. 1% on average) under extremely long or short times spent grazing, respectively, compared to those from average variations in the time spent grazing. The range of variation in time spent grazing also reflects changes in feed rations. Farm-management practices require deep investigation to both evaluate and decrease risks of environmental impacts in dairy production.
  • Long-term maintenance of grasslands on dairy farms is associated with
           redesign and hybridisation of practices, motivated by farmers' perceptions
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): T. Petit, G. Martel, F. Vertès, S. Couvreur Despite a constant decline in grassland areas between the 1970s and 2010 at the regional and national scale in France, in particular on lowlands, grasslands have been maintained locally. This raises questions about long-term changes on the farms involved in these dynamics, particularly with regard to the relation between the evolution of the role of grasslands in production processes, and farmers' perceptions of fodder systems within production systems. Our research concerned three peri-urban cantons in Brittany, where we examined grassland practices over the long term and farmers' perceptions of grasslands in a sample of 15 farms within the area where grasslands were maintained. First, we modelled pathways of the place and roles of grasslands on farms, based on criteria of quantitative presence, management, and valorisation. Second, we characterised the farmers' perceptions of grasslands and the fodder system. We then performed combined analysis of these pathways and perceptions. The maintenance of grasslands was found in a diversity of pathways in which grasslands were used to a medium and large extent in the fodder systems. These changes occurred either through a complete redesign of the fodder system or through hybridisation of practices aimed at obtaining dairy systems that were more intensive yet more agri-ecological. The pathways that gave a new place to grasslands in the fodder system were related to farmers' perceptions marked by a fading opposition between grasslands and maize farming. They attributed additional value – in terms of animal welfare, economics, or agronomy – to grasslands in a mixed maize/grassland fodder system.
  • Ecological-economic modelling to compare the impact of organic and
           conventional farming on endangered grassland bird and butterfly species
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Charlotte Gerling, Astrid Sturm, Frank Wätzold We applied an ecological-economic modelling procedure to analyse the impact of organic versus conventional management of meadows on endangered bird and butterfly species in Saxony, Germany. Applying the modelling procedure enables us to focus on two aspects that hitherto have been neglected in analysing the impact of organic farming on biodiversity. (1) Possible differences in the timing of land use between organic and conventional farming, and (2) differences in the uptake of agri-environment schemes (AES) by organic and conventional farmers. We found that for the species considered the difference in the impact of conventional and organic farming is minor, because in our case study region the timing of land use on most areas with organic farming is very similar to the timing on areas with conventional farming. We also found that in comparison with conventional farmers, organic farmers generally face lower opportunity costs when implementing AES measures. Additionally, organic farmers are offered lower payments for such measures. These factors influence organic farmers' decisions to take part in AES, which in turn has an important impact on biodiversity conservation. In order to better conserve species it may be necessary to adapt the payment structure of AES with respect to organic farming.
  • Perspectives on the concept of rangeland carrying capacity, and their
           exploration by means of Noy-Meir's two-function model
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Eugene David Ungar Carrying capacity is a fundamental concept in rangeland science and management; however, it is difficult to define, not least because it can be viewed from varied perspectives. With a view to facilitating debate, six perspectives (or definitions) of carrying capacity were formulated, representing: resource productivity; animal production; the system; animal welfare; the environment; and profit. To explore their implications semiquantitatively, Noy-Meir's simple, two-function model of a grazing system was used to simulate the annual herbage production cycle, during which a specified animal population density would be present year-round, except during an early-season grazing deferment of specified duration. The model was extended to calculate a metric for each definition of carrying capacity and then implemented for various combinations of the two key grazing-management-determined parameters: animal density and deferment duration. The metrics were mapped as a series of response surfaces. In general, grazing deferment at the start of the growth season can compensate for an increase in animal density. In other words, carrying capacity is, for most definitions, a contour line on a response surface; it divides the total space into “acceptable” and “unacceptable” regions of grazing-management practice. The contour lines that characterize the various carrying-capacity definitions can then be superimposed to examine the degree of overlap between “acceptable” regions. Two common rules-of-thumb for determining carrying capacity are examined by using this approach. The term “carrying capacity” is vague because it can address various concerns, but some of the most important concerns can be defined in reasonably precise terms and translated into quantitative metrics, based on the fundamental states and rates of a grazing system. Such an approach could facilitate dialogue among those concerned with the continuous refinement of carrying-capacity recommendations.
  • Herbicide free agriculture' A bio-economic modelling application to
           Swiss wheat production
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Thomas Böcker, Niklas Möhring, Robert Finger Herbicide application in agricultural systems is currently critically discussed because of its possible adverse effects on the environment and human health. Currently, governments and food industry actors search for solutions to reduce herbicide use on farms. Yet, potential consequences of herbicide reductions on a farm-level are not well known. The goal of this article is to develop and apply a bio-economic modelling approach to simulate how farmers and agricultural systems react to a potential ban of glyphosate and eventually of all herbicides. We apply this approach for Swiss Extenso wheat production, which is a widespread form of wheat production in Switzerland, where pesticide use is currently limited to herbicides and seed treatments. Our modelling approach combines spatially explicit, detailed information on weed pressure, possible yield effects of weeds and efficacy and costs of 140 weed control strategies in a spatially explicit economic decision model. We assess the strategies optimal for farmers in response to i) glyphosate-free and ii) herbicide-free production requirements in terms of economic losses, yield reductions and environmental impacts. We find economic losses in the glyphosate-free production scenario of up to CHF 119/ha and in the herbicide-free scenario of up to CHF 192/ha, with respective yield reductions ranging between 0.8 and 2.7 dt/ha (i.e. of up to 6%). However, possible economic losses would be outweighed by existing Swiss agri-environmental direct payments for herbicide-free and reduced tillage production systems. We find that restrictions with respect to glyphosate and herbicide use imply trade-offs between the reduction in pesticide risks for the environment and human health versus higher energy consumption. Yet, these trade-offs can be limited if incentive schemes for glyphosate and herbicide reduction are combined with requirements to prevent more intensive tillage.
  • The role of soil hydraulic properties in crop water use efficiency: A
           process-based analysis for some Brazilian scenarios
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Everton Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro, Quirijn de Jong van Lier, Jirka Šimůnek The need for improvements in the water use efficiency by agricultural ecosystems requires a holistic assessment of the hydraulic functioning of cropped soils, taking into consideration the most relevant interactions and feedbacks that control the soil water budget. We implemented a mechanistic approach to isolate the effects of soil hydraulic properties (K-θ-h) of layered soils on water balance components and land and water productivity, adopting comprehensive scenarios of soil water availability and requirements. The agro-hydrological simulations were performed using the SWAP model integrated with the WOFOST crop growth module. The simulated scenarios included the rainfed crop growth of maize and soybean in three climate zones, evaluating the current climate scenarios as well as two future scenarios, a wetter and a drier one, totaling 108 scenarios simulated for 30 years each. Simulations were performed for six soils, grouped pairwise (3 × 2), where each pair represented the same soil group with two different long-term land uses: natural forest (proxy of a no-tillage system) and conventional agricultural use. The K-θ-h relationships were obtained simultaneously by inverse modeling for the full range of soil water contents commonly found in the domain of crop available water. The agro-hydrological simulations showed that the soil hydraulic properties affect dynamically water balance components and land productivity by relating soil hydraulic functioning to climate patterns and crop water requirements. In general, maize productivity was more sensitive to soil hydraulic properties under future climate scenarios than soybean. While land productivities of maize and soybean increased under the wetter climate scenario, water productivity of both crops was consistently reduced by both future climate scenarios. The K-θ-h of soils under conventional agricultural use over-performed their counterparts under long-term natural forest use, especially regarding land productivity during growing seasons with pronounced dry spells. Depending on the length and timing of drought stress during the growing season, the yield response is determined by soil-specific conditions strictly related to water availability. The long-term average revealed that the sampled loamy sand soils have more favorable hydraulic properties for crop growth; moreover, the reduced unproductive water losses, especially runoff, increased the dynamic water storage of those soils.
  • Ecological infrastructures across Mediterranean agroecosystems: Towards an
           effective tool for evaluating their ecological quality
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Natalia Rosas-Ramos, Laura Baños-Picón, Valeria Trivellone, Marco Moretti, José Tormos, Josep D. Asís The development of reliable evaluation schemes is essential to assess the status of biodiversity, particularly under the current scenario of biodiversity loss across agroecosystems. In these areas, ecological infrastructures contribute heavily to enhance biodiversity and underlying services, and their contribution depends on their ecological quality. Based on the questionnaire by Boller et al. (2004) for temperate areas, we propose a reliable tool for evaluating the ecological quality of woodland patches, hedges and grass strips associated with Mediterranean agroecosystems (simplified questionnaire). Since management practices and organism composition vary across geographical regions, the implementation of evaluation tools adapted to other geographical regions is deemed necessary. The development of the simplified questionnaire followed a five-steps' approach: (i) application of the Boller's questionnaire in the field; (ii) Boller's questionnaire adaptation; (iii) development of the simplified questionnaire through the assessment and simplification of Boller's questionnaire; (iv) evaluation of the simplified questionnaire effectiveness; (v) proposal of plant indicator species associated to the different quality levels obtained from applying the simplified questionnaire as an additional tool for quality assessment that complements such questionnaire. A total of 482 ecological infrastructures were evaluated in La Rioja (Spain) using the Boller's questionnaire, and their vegetation assessed by inventorying their floristic composition. We analyzed the relationship between plant species richness, as a proxy of the overall biodiversity, and the different items included in the Boller's questionnaire. According to these results, a new questionnaire was proposed, in which only variables significantly related to plant species richness were included. Our results showed that the quality groups established when applying our simplified questionnaire were more consistent than those obtained when using the Boller's questionnaire. Overall, 35 plant species resulted as significant indicators for the four levels of quality obtained from applying the simplified questionnaire. We point out that the assessment tool based on simplified questionnaire is straightforward and easy to apply by both experts and non-experts. We also propose the simplified questionnaire development procedure as a guide to create evaluation questionnaires adapted to other ecological infrastructure types.
  • Crop diversification and resilience of agriculture to climatic shocks:
           Evidence from India
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Pratap S. Birthal, Jaweriah Hazrana Indian agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate shocks, such as floods, droughts and heat-stress. In this paper, using a dynamic panel-data approach we have assessed the impact of rainfall-deficit and heat-stress on agricultural productivity, and subsequently evaluated effectiveness of crop diversification in mitigating their adverse effects. The findings show that both rainfall-deficit and heat-stress damage agricultural productivity, and the damage increases with increase in their severity. Nevertheless, we find crop diversification as an important ex ante adaptation measure to climatic shocks and its adaptation benefits are more apparent against severe shocks and in the long-run. Our findings reinforce the dynamic role of crop diversification in improving resilience of agricultural production systems to climatic shocks.
  • Point pattern simulation modelling of extensive and intensive chicken
           farming in Thailand: Accounting for clustering and landscape
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Celia Chaiban, Christophe Biscio, Weerapong Thanapongtharm, Michael Tildesley, Xiangming Xiao, Timothy P. Robinson, Sophie O. Vanwambeke, Marius Gilbert In recent decades, intensification of animal production has been occurring rapidly in transition economies to meet the growing demands of increasingly urban populations. This comes with significant environmental, health and social impacts. To assess these impacts, detailed maps of livestock distributions have been developed by downscaling census data at the pixel level (10 km or 1 km), providing estimates of the density of animals in each pixel. However, these data remain at fairly coarse scale and many epidemiological or environmental science applications would make better use of data where the distribution and size of farms are predicted rather than the number of animals per pixel. Based on detailed 2010 census data, we investigated the spatial point pattern distribution of extensive and intensive chicken farms in Thailand. We parameterized point pattern simulation models for extensive and intensive chicken farms and evaluated these models in different parts of Thailand for their capacity to reproduce the correct level of spatial clustering and the most likely locations of the farm clusters. We found that both the level of clustering and location of clusters could be simulated with reasonable accuracy by our farm distribution models. Furthermore, intensive chicken farms tended to be much more clustered than extensive farms, and their locations less easily predicted using simple spatial factors such as human populations. These point-pattern simulation models could be used to downscale coarse administrative level livestock census data into farm locations. This methodology could be of particular value in countries where farm location data are unavailable.
  • Intercropping contributes to a higher technical efficiency in smallholder
           farming: Evidence from a case study in Gaotai County, China
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Yu Hong, Nico Heerink, Minjuan Zhao, Wopke van der Werf Intercropping entails the concurrent production of two or more crop species in the same field. This traditional farming method generally results in a highly efficient use of land, but whether it also contributes to a higher technical efficiency remains unclear. Technical efficiency refers to the efficiency with which a given set of natural resources and other inputs can be used to produce crops. In this study, we examined the contribution of maize-based relay-strip intercropping to the technical efficiency of smallholder farming in northwest China. Data on the inputs and crop production of 231 farms were collected for the 2013 agricultural season using a farm survey held in Gaotai County, Gansu Province, China. Controlling for other factors, we found that the technical efficiency scores of these farms were positively affected by the proportion of land assigned to intercropping. This finding indicates that the potential negative effects of intercropping on the use efficiency of labour and other resources are more than offset by its higher land-use efficiency when compared with monocropping.
  • A multi-objective approach to water and nutrient efficiency for
           sustainable agricultural intensification
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Ian Kropp, A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Kalyanmoy Deb, Mohammad Abouali, Proteek C. Roy, Umesh Adhikari, Gerrit Hoogenboom Sustainable intensification entails increasing the yield of existing agricultural lands while reducing the impact on the environment. Therefore, we sought to optimize irrigation and fertilizer scheduling on the farm level with respects to crop yield and environmental impact. Unlike traditional optimization, multi-objective optimization techniques provide a set of optimal solutions that collectively represent the tradeoffs between the conflicting objectives. As a result, decision makers can then prioritize and select their optimal trade-off from the global set of optimal solutions. To implement such an optimization platform, this study integrates the Unified Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-III (U-NSGA-III) based multi-objective optimization platform with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model. The U-NSGA-III algorithm optimizes a farm level agricultural production system against a myriad of soil, crop, and climate objectives. With this platform, we were able to find irrigation and nitrogen schemes that reduced water usage by 48%, nitrogen usage by 26%, and nitrogen leaching by 51%.
  • Associations between global indices of risk management and agricultural
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Elesandro Bornhofen, Thiago Gentil Ramires, Tábata Bergonci, Luiz Ricardo Nakamura, Ana Julia Righetto Different countries around the globe have different levels of vulnerability to risks because of several factors, e.g. degree of development, governance, infrastructure, among others. The probability of occurrence of certain risks as drought and unfavorable tax policies have a direct impact on the development of the agribusiness in a given country. Hence, the aim of this study is to combine a set of risk management indices in a global scale with agribusiness performance indicators, focusing on the 96 most relevant countries regarding the agribusiness GDP (Gross domestic product). We selected 27 indicators for risk management collected from the InfoRM database and seven for agribusiness performance from the FAOSTAT database. All data used in this research are public available. The data were scaled, and then analyzed through multivariate techniques, specifically using principal component analysis (displayed in biplots) and unsupervised K-means clustering in R software. The results suggest that monitoring the indicators of risk management (InfoRM) and the establishment of strategies to shrink them may have a positive effect on the agribusiness performance of a given country. For the agribusiness improvement, nations should elaborate strategies for the joint enhancement of the indicators discussed here, observing the existing associations. The implications of the use of risk management indexes and agricultural performance indicators are discussed.
  • Unpacking the systemic problems and blocking mechanisms of a regional
           agricultural innovation system: An integrated
           regional-functional-structural analysis
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Thai Thi Minh Although agricultural innovation systems (AIS) have recently received considerable attention in academic and development circles, links between an AIS's regional specifications and structural-functional analysis have been neglected. This paper aims to understand how regional and structural dimensions determine systemic problems and blocking mechanisms that, in turn, hinder a regional AIS's function. From the basis of a qualitative data set, it presents an analysis of an AIS in Vietnam's Northern Uplands using an integrated regional-structural-functional framework. Results indicate that the existing AIS has six unique problems that are linked to seven blocking mechanisms, mainly belonging to three structural components: infrastructure, actors and institutions. Addressing these blocking mechanisms needs systemic instruments that help stimulate and balance investments, creating spaces for the development of actors' capability, and facilitating the institutional shift towards enabling region-oriented agriculture and demand-driven innovation processes. First, this study contributes an analysis of the integration of regional dimensions and technologies captured as a structural entity into the structural-functional framework, providing novel insights into the functioning of a regional AIS. Second, it deepens the literature on structural-functional innovation systems analysis by looking at the interconnections between structural and regional dimensions and how they create blocking mechanisms. It concludes that the regional-structural-functional analysis allows the design of integrated coherent sets of systemic instruments for a regional AIS.
  • Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El
           Niño Southern Oscillation phases
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Rogério de Souza Nóia Júnior, Paulo Cesar Sentelhas El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important atmospheric-oceanic phenomena, responsible for climate variability in several Brazilian regions, which affects agriculture, mainly soybean – maize off-season succession. Therefore, the ENSO impacts on soybean – maize off-season double crop system can affect global food security, since Brazil is a major player as producer of these two crops, with a total production that represents 27% and 6% of world's soybean and maize production, respectively. In order to understand the risks associated to this crop system, the aim of this study was to assess the influence of ENSO phenomenon on the spatial and temporal soybean and maize off-season yield variabilities, considering simulations with three different crop models (FAO-AZM, DSSAT and APSIM) in a multi-model approach, and to determine the best sowing windows for this production system for each ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) in different Brazilian producing regions. Previously calibrated and validated models were used to simulate soybean yields for 29 locations in 12 states, with sowing dates ranging from late September to early January of each growing season for a period of 34 years (1980–2013). The maize off-season sowing was done just after the soybean harvest, ranging from late January to early May. ENSO phases affected soybean and maize yields across the country, which can be minimized by choosing the best sowing window for soybean. In northern Brazil, El Niño negatively impacts soybean and maize off-season yields, making the succession of these crops risk, with the best sowing window being very short. Similar result was found for southern and central Brazil during La Niña years. On the contrary, cropping soybean and maize off-season in succession during El Niño years in center-south of and during La Niña years up north have higher chances of success.Graphical abstractUnlabelled Image
  • Structural characteristics of organic dairy farms in four European
           countries and their association with the implementation of animal health
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Isabel Blanco-Penedo, Karin Sjöström, Philip Jones, Margret Krieger, Julie Duval, Felix van Soest, Albert Sundrum, Ulf Emanuelson The aim of the present study was to classify the diversity of organic dairy farms in four European countries according to their structural characteristics and investigate the association of these farm types with implementation of herd health plans. A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), followed by Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC), was used to classify the farms. Data for the analysis came from a survey of 192 organic farms from France, Germany, Spain and Sweden and contained farm and farmer descriptions from which the typologies were derived. Herd health plans was agreed for each farm, via a participatory approach involving the farmers, their veterinarians and other advisors (e.g. dairy advisors) by the use of an impact matrix. The MCA yielded two principal component axes explaining 51.3% of variance. Three farm groups were identified by AHC using the factor scores derived from the MCA. Cluster 1, the most numerous group (56.7% of the sample), had medium herd sizes with moderate use of pasture and moderate intensity of input use. Cluster 2, representing 17.7% of the sample, were the most extensive system and mainly of very small farm size. Cluster 3 (25.5% of the sample and only found in Sweden), had an intensive management approach, but relatively low stocking rate. The analysis also showed that organic dairy farms adopted differentiated strategies towards economic assets and animal health status, according to group membership. The typology therefore provides insights into the potential for advisory strategies relating to husbandry practices, different housing, pasture management and intensity, etc. adapted to different groups of farms. Regarding herd health plan implementation, Cluster 1 was the group with most implemented actions and Cluster 2 with lowest rate of implemented actions. These results may be used as background for directing (tailored) advice strategies, i.e. different types of organic dairy farms (clusters) may require different types of advisory services and recommendations adapted to the specific farm situation in order to deliver future improvements in animal health.
  • Mathematical programming model (MMP) for optimization of regional cropping
           patterns decisions: A case study
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Mostafa Mardani Najafabadi, Saman Ziaee, Alireza Nikouei, Mahmoud Ahmadpour Borazjani The economic, technical and strategic factors are the three most important factors in examining the cropping patterns in Iran. Iran is geographically located in a part of the planet with specific climate constraints. Drought is one of the constraints that has been a major challenge to agricultural development for many years and has always been the subject of discussions and investigations. On the other hand, constraints such as agricultural soils, economic factors, climate change, agricultural workforce, etc., multiply the production challenges in the country. Despite such constraints, planning a coherent and targeted program for the cultivation of crops and overcome the existing problems is inevitable. The present study introduced a model for optimization of regional cropping pattern decisions, which is one of the subsets of the Multi-Objective Structural Planning (MOSP) approach, and addressed different objectives, such as economic, social and environmental objectives, separately and jointly. However, it is important to address the exchange of crops in different areas in order to achieve the fundamental objectives of determining the optimal cropping pattern. Therefore, in the proposed model of optimal regional cropping pattern, issues such as the transportation of crops and, consequently, virtual water and energy exchanges were also considered. In order to evaluate the proposed model, agricultural arable lands located in the political-geographic divisions of 23 counties of Isfahan province (Iran) were selected for examination. The results showed that in the main groups of grains and forage, a significant reduction was observed in the optimal crop area of the multi-objective model by 26% and 5%, respectively. Increasing the crop area of horticultural products by 10% in the optimal pattern of multi-objective model was another important factor in the analysis of the results. In general, in order to achieve the economic, social and environmental objectives mentioned in this study within the framework of a multi-objective planning, a 16% reduction in the level of the crop area in Isfahan province is inevitable. The results of this measure are reduction in the irrigation water consumption by 17%, increase in the profit by 58% and increase in the production by 11%. Regarding the fact that in the structural planning of cropping pattern, different and sometimes conflicting objectives are considered and the compromise between the objectives is possible in the multi-objective structural planning model, the decision makers are recommended to use this model.
  • Comparing soil respiration and carbon pools of a maize-wheat rotation and
           switchgrass for predicting land-use change-driven SOC variations
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Andrea Nocentini, Andrea Monti The deployment of dedicated energy crops and the related land-use change are topical issues, particularly in relation to carbon storage and climate change mitigation effects. In order to maximize their mitigation potential and to fully supply new biorefineries, perennial energy crops may be established, not only on former idle and grazing lands, but also on the least remunerative cropland, as indirect land use change effects are still very uncertain. Possibly becoming a future land-use change option, the carbon flows of the most common crop rotation in Europe (maize-wheat) and the perennial grass switchgrass were measured, and later included in a biogeochemical model to build possible scenarios. Yearly mean soil respiration did not statistically differ between switchgrass and the annual cereals (2.9 and 2.5 Mg CO2 ha−1 month−1, respectively), but in switchgrass the peak flux was reached during crop growth (6.1 Mg CO2 ha−1 month−1), while in the cereal system it occurred in bare soil (after harvest and soil tillage) (4.5 Mg CO2 ha−1 month−1). Harvest residues contributing to soil organic matter were highest in maize (12.4 Mg ha−1 y−1) and decreased in switchgrass (−79%) and wheat (−87%). Root biomass was much higher in switchgrass (10.0 Mg ha−1 y−1) than maize (−81%) or wheat (−94%). Model projections showed how continuous switchgrass cycles of 15 years following annual crops cultivation were capable to keep building up SOC inventories (0.24 or 0.32 Mg ha−1 y−1) up to the year 2100. On the opposite, maintaining the land under maize-wheat cultivation, depending on maize stover management, would either produce a SOC loss (−3.6 Mg ha−1) or could help the soil increasing SOC (+9.4 Mg ha−1) towards a new equilibrium after two decades.
  • Review - Agricultural land suitability analysis: State-of-the-art and
           outlooks for integration of climate change analysis
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Komlavi Akpoti, Amos T. Kabo-bah, Sander J. Zwart Agricultural land suitability analysis (ALSA) for crop production is one of the key tools for ensuring sustainable agriculture and for attaining the current global food security goal in line with the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) of United Nations. Although some review studies addressed land suitability, few of them specifically focused on land suitability analysis for agriculture. Furthermore, previous reviews have not reflected on the impact of climate change on future land suitability and how this can be addressed or integrated into ALSA methods. In the context of global environmental changes and sustainable agriculture debate, we showed from the current review that ALSA is a worldwide land use planning approach. We reported from the reviewed articles 69 frequently used factors in ALSA. These factors were further categorized in climatic conditions (16), nutrients and favorable soils (34 of soil and landscape), water availability in the root zone (8 for hydrology and irrigation) and socio-economic and technical requirements (11). Also, in getting a complete view of crop’s ecosystems and factors that can explain and improve yield, inherent local socio-economic factors should be considered. We showed that this aspect has been often omitted in most of the ALSA modeling with only 38% of the total reviewed article using socio-economic factors. Also, only 30% of the studies included uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in their modeling process. We found limited inclusions of climate change in the application of the ALSA. We emphasize that incorporating current and future climate change projections in ALSA is the way forward for sustainable or optimum agriculture and food security. To this end, qualitative and quantitative approaches must be integrated into a unique ALSA system (Hybrid Land Evaluation System - HLES) to improve the land evaluation approach.
  • A methodology for redesigning agroecological radical production systems at
           the farm level
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Solène Pissonnier, Arnaud Dufils, Pierre-Yves Le Gal A redesign process at the farm level may be required for agricultural production systems to evolve in a manner that reduces their environmental and health impacts. This process leads to imagining configurations described as “radical” because they reach beyond the limits posed by the substitution of synthetic inputs by natural ones. An assessment of the possible effects of these configurations on farm functioning and performance is required to inform stakeholders about the advantages of testing and implementing them. This study describes an approach for designing and assessing such configurations that involves researchers, technicians and farmers. Some of these stakeholders can play the role of designers, who lead the redesign process, and/or experts, who provide references and knowledge throughout the exercise. The approach is based on six principles (evaluation, plausibility, precision, flexibility, diversity, iteration) and includes eight steps. Based on a diagnosis of the production context (step 1), some ideas of radical production system are imagined (step 2), which define the kind of experts to be involved (step 3). A farm, virtual or real, then is selected and characterized as a case study (step 4), and the specific objectives driving the farm's redesign process are described (step 5). Scenarios are then designed and characterized (step 6), quantitatively assessed using a simulation tool dedicated to the kind of production system studied (step 7), and compared in order to feed debates between designers and experts on the merits and limits of the various options designed (step 8). Steps 6 through 8 may be repeated as new ideas emerge. This methodology is illustrated with the case of a farm specialized in apple production on which a sheep unit is introduced to reduce pesticide use by ensuring grass management and reducing pest pressure. Two scenarios are designed according to the kind of sheep management. CoHort software was used to assess the two scenarios in terms of economic performance, frequency of pesticide use, and farm work organization. The limits and values of this redesign process are discussed regarding the hypothesis that must be made to characterize virtual biodiversity-based systems, the kind of involvement expected from farmers, and the opportunities provided by moving from the farm to territory scale in the case of crop-livestock systems. This redesign approach can potentially be applied to many topics, ranging from the consistent combination of agroecological practices to futuristic scenarios involving robots.
  • To cluster or not to cluster farmers' Influences on network
           interactions, risk perceptions, and adoption of aquaculture practices
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Olivier M. Joffre, P. Marijn Poortvliet, Laurens Klerkx Over the course of just a few years, shrimp farming has become a major aquaculture production system in coastal areas of several developing countries across the globe. However, farmers are facing a variety of risks related to disease, market, and climate, which influence risk management strategies and adoption of new technologies. This paper looks at three practices related to pond management: (1) water quality management to ensure a good environment for shrimp growth; (2) adequate feed input; and (3) disease control practices in order to mitigate the risk of disease outbreak in the pond. We investigated adoption of these three practices in smallholder shrimp farms in the Mekong Delta, by exploring how and whether membership into a producer's cluster influences access to knowledge and perception of risk in the adoption process. The results show that, after controlling for farm characteristics, farm clustering has a positive relationship with the adoption of water quality management, feed inputs, and disease control practices. Results also indicate that increasing interaction frequency with public sector and private sector's actors, as well as the perceived degree of market risk, positively influences the adoption of the three pond management practices under study. Mediation analyses show that being a member of a farmer cluster influences adoption of farming practices via two underlying processes: frequency of interaction with public and private sector's actors, and perception of market risk, both of which ultimately promote the adoption of practices. We conclude that clustering is a promising avenue for fostering interactions between farmers and key supporting actors in aquaculture, and impacts both the formation of specific aqua-related risk perceptions and subsequent practice adoption. As such, clusters – by fostering linkages and facilitating interactions between different knowledge sources – can promote adoption of practices toward sustainable intensification. However, to more effectively deploy a cluster approach a key policy and practice implication is to take into consideration local idiosyncrasies defined by their social interactions, risk perception and spatial dimensions in order to better facilitate local linkages between farms (horizontal coordination) and a better integration with the value chain (vertical coordination).
  • A simple and parsimonious generalised additive model for predicting wheat
           yield in a decision support tool
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Kefei Chen, Rebecca A. O'Leary, Fiona H. Evans Yield prediction is a major determinant of many management decisions for crop production. Farmers and their advisors want user-friendly decision support tools for predicting yield. Simulation models can be used to accurately predict yield, but they are complex and difficult to parameterise. The goal of this study is to build a simple and parsimonious model for predicting wheat yields that can be implemented in a decision tool to be used by farmers at a paddock level.A large yield data set accumulated from trials on commonly grown varieties in Western Australia is used to build and validate a generalised additive model (GAM) for predicting wheat yield. Explanatory variables tested included weather data and derivatives, geolocation, soil type, land capability, and wheat varieties. Model selection followed a forward stepwise approach in combination with cross-validation to select the smallest set of explanatory variables. The predictive performance is also evaluated using independent data.The final model uses seasonal water availability, location and year to predict wheat yield. Because the GAM model has minimal inputs, it can be easily employed in a decision tool to predict yield throughout the growing season using rainfall data up to the prediction date and either climatological averages or seasonal forecasts of rainfall for the remainder of the growing season. It also has the potential to be used as an input to agronomic models that predict the effect on yield of various management choices for fertiliser, pest, weed and disease management.
  • Multi-objective simulation and optimisation of dairy sheep farms:
           Exploring trade-offs between economic and environmental outcomes
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): D. Villalba, B. Díez-Unquera, A. Carrascal, A. Bernués, R. Ruiz A decision support tool for sheep farming systems (PASTOR-DSS) was developed to investigate trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives on Spanish dairy sheep farms. The tool combines a hierarchical stochastic simulation model at three levels with a multi-objective optimisation procedure based on genetic algorithms. The first level of simulation includes rumen, reproduction and nutrient balance submodels. These three submodels are integrated into an animal model, which constitutes the second level. The third level is the farm, which includes the flock, the feeding and reproductive management, the availability of feeding resources, and the farm economics. The multi-objective genetic algorithm applies to the farm level. The tool was validated for the different levels of simulation, with outputs having an acceptable level of accuracy and representing correctly the links between feeding and reproduction. The tool was used to optimise the Latxa breed farming systems of the Basque Country (Spain). Two farm types were simulated: a COAST farm located in low-altitude Atlantic conditions and longer grazing period, and the INLAND farm located in mountain areas with a shorter grazing period. The optimisation provided a set of optimal solutions with different economic and environmental (N excretion) performances. The optimal solutions increased the financial margin over feed costs in both farms (+24% and + 22% for COAST and INLAND, respectively). The final space of solutions showed a clear trade-off between the economic and environmental performance (nitrogen excretion). The difference in the financial margin over feed costs between the solutions could be interpreted as the opportunity cost of greening in policy design, i.e., the payment that farmers should receive to change their farming methods to reduce nitrogen pollution.
  • Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported
           agricultural impacts of drought
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): David J. Parsons, Dolores Rey, Maliko Tanguy, Ian P. Holman Drought has wide ranging impacts on all sectors. Despite much effort to identify the best drought indicator to represents the occurrence of drought impacts in a particular sector, there is still no consensus among the scientific community on this. Using a more detailed and extensive impact dataset than in previous studies, this paper assesses the regional relationship between drought impacts occurrence in British agriculture and two of the most commonly used drought indices (SPI and SPEI). The largest qualitative dataset on reported drought impacts on British agriculture for the period 1975–2012 spanning all major recent droughts was collated. Logistic regression using generalised additive models was applied to investigate the association between drought indices and reported impacts at the regional level. Results show that SPEI calculated for the preceding six months is the best indicator to predict the probability of drought impacts on agriculture in the UK, although the variation in the response to SPEI6 differed between regions. However, this variation appears to result both from the method by which SPEI is derived, which means that similar values of the index equate to different soil moisture conditions in wet and dry regions, and from the variation in agriculture between regions. The study shows that SPEI alone has limited value as an indicator of agricultural droughts in heterogeneous areas and that such results cannot be usefully extrapolated between regions. However, given the drought sensitivity of agriculture, the integration of regional predictions within drought monitoring and forecasting would help to reduce the large on-farm economic damage of drought and increase the sector's resilience to future drought.
  • Effects of uncertainty and farmers' risk aversion on optimal N fertilizer
           supply in wheat production in Germany
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Andreas Meyer-Aurich, Yusuf Nadi Karatay The role of nitrogen (N) fertilizer in mitigating economic risks in agriculture is under debate with contrasting views. This study contributes to an analysis of the economic response in wheat production to N fertilizer with respect to price premium structures for grain qualities from eight field experiments across Germany. Optimal N fertilizer levels were determined by different algorithms, based on average response, expected profit, and certainty equivalents with different attitudes toward risk aversion. The inherent uncertainty of yield response and crop quality response consistently resulted in higher expected profit with higher N rates than a management based on average response. Profit maximizing N rates based on maximum expected profit were substantially higher than economic optimal N rates based on average response data at 6/8 sites. Expected profit remained high over a large range of N fertilizer rates without a substantial downside risk and opportunity costs of deviating from optimal N rates within a range of 50 kg/ha. Protein price premiums reduce the riskiness of higher N rates and it is possible to apply higher N rates without increasing risk considerably.
  • Optimizing regional cropping systems with a dynamic adaptation strategy
           for water sustainable agriculture in the Hebei Plain
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Honglin Zhong, Laixiang Sun, Günther Fischer, Zhan Tian, Zhuoran Liang Unsustainable overexploitation of groundwater for agricultural irrigation has led to rapid groundwater depletion and severe environmental damage in the semi-arid Hebei Plain of China. Field experiments have recommended annual winter fallowing (i.e., forgoing winter wheat production) as the most effective way to replenish groundwater. However, adopting the recommendation across the Hebei Plain would lead to a significant reduction in total wheat production. This research aims to find the most favorable water-sustainable cropping systems for different localities in the Hebei Plain, which at the regional aggregation level maintains the uppermost overall levels of wheat and grain production respectively. Our simulations indicate that in the Hebei Plain, an optimal allocation of a wheat-early maize relay intercropping system and an early maize-winter fallow cropping system across the Hebei Plain could lead to significant water savings while minimizing grain production losses to around 11%. Compared to the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system, to prevent a drop in the water table, 39% of the current wheat cropping land would need to be fallowed in winter, reducing irrigation water use by 2639 × 106 m3. Replacing the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system with our optimized allocation system could lead to a 36% increase in total maize production and 39% decrease in total wheat production, resulting in total agricultural irrigation water savings of 2322 × 106 m3 and a total grain production reduction by 11%. The findings indicate the potential benefits of our cropping system adaptation method to meet the challenge of recovering local groundwater level with the least possible reduction of wheat and total grain production in the Hebei Plain.
  • Managing cow herd dynamics in environments of limited forage productivity
           and livestock marketing channels: An application to semi-arid Pacific
           island beef production using system dynamics
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Ty L. Tinsley, Steven Chumbley, Clay Mathis, Richard Machen, Benjamin L. Turner Sustainable ranching operations require access to adequate forage reserves and suitable means to market livestock, both of which are critical determinants of adaptive capacity (defined here as the ability to manipulate stocking rate). Ranch adaptive capacity is most relevant during times of forage shortages from drought. Unfortunately for island beef production systems, traditional adaptive measures used in continental systems are unavailable, such as transporting livestock to less affected areas, importing feed resources (cost prohibitive), intensive grazing practices or stockpiling forage (since forages mature too rapidly and are generally low quality), or destocking through cull cow sales (due to limited marketing and processing capacities). Located on an island of Hawaii, the case study ranch investigated here is challenged by each of these environmental and market constraints. The ranch resides on the leeward side of its island such that it receives minimal rainfall and forage productivity is similar to semi-arid rangelands in the western United States. The ranch's livestock management problem is compounded during drought, since island slaughter capacity is limited and there is no financially feasible means of marketing and transporting culled livestock off the island. Therefore, when forage is limited, managers are forced to retain ownership of culled mature cows, who are moved into a terminal herd to await the next available harvest or shipping availability. Terminal herds occupy areas with lower quality forages to conserve the most productive pastures for higher valued calves. This backlog of cull cows creates extended periods of stress on forage resources, since grazing pressure is not relieved as drought intensifies and increases operational expenses. A simulation model was created in an effort to identify key leverage points within the ranching operation that have the greatest impact on forage availability, herd size and net income. Upon completion of the model, sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify key drivers of model behaviors and several what-if scenarios were run based on questions provided by island ranch managers. Results showed that reducing terminal herd size through increased island processing capacity would not relieve forage pressure or eliminate the backlog of terminal cull cows, although net income was improved through greater cow sales. Several follow up tests were then run to evaluate changes to internal ranch decision making, which showed that reductions in heifer retention would provide a wider array of ecological and economic benefits. The ranch's ability to manipulate heifer retention rates, rather than cull cow rates, terminal herd shipping, or island processing capacity, was shown to be the critical aspect which drives ranch adaptive capacity.
  • Trade-offs between food security and forest exploitation by mestizo
           households in Ucayali, Peruvian Amazon
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): N. Andrieu, G. Blundo-Canto, G.S. Cruz-Garcia The Peruvian Amazon is undergoing rapid and uneven economic growth, alongside alarming rates of deforestation, increasing land use change and food security concerns. Although it has been widely acknowledged that food insecurity is intrinsically linked with deforestation, the links have not been thoroughly documented. The aim of this paper is to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between food security and forest exploitation at household level in mestizo communities in Ucayali, one of the regions with the highest deforestation rates in the Peruvian Amazon. To this end, 24 farmers were interviewed, surveys were conducted with a sample of 58 households, and an ad-hoc simulation modelling tool was developed and applied. Four main types of mestizo farming households were identified based on their crop and livestock diversity. For all farm types, the forest mainly represented a set aside area to support a potential increase in agricultural production. However, simulations showed that the different types of households, with different decision rules, lead to different rates of deforestation. The results of this study showed that the most diversified farming households presented the smallest trade-offs between food security and forest conservation, as they are the ones most likely to preserve the forest while ensuring their food security.
  • A model to examine farm household trade-offs and synergies with an
           application to smallholders in Vietnam
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Lenora Ditzler, Adam M. Komarek, Tsai-Wei Chiang, Stéphanie Alvarez, Shantonu Abe Chatterjee, Carl Timler, Jessica E. Raneri, Natalia Estrada Carmona, Gina Kennedy, Jeroen C.J. Groot Farm models have the potential to describe farming systems and livelihoods, identify trade-offs and synergies, and provide ex-ante assessments of agricultural technologies and policies. We developed three new modules related to budget, labor, and human nutrition for the bio-economic whole-farm model ‘FarmDESIGN’. The expanded model positions the farming enterprise within the farm household. We illustrate the model's new capabilities for farm households in two villages in Northwest Vietnam, where we conducted multi-objective optimization to identify options for improving the farm households' current performance on key sustainability and livelihood indicators. Modeling results suggest trade-offs between environmental, economic, and social objectives are common, although not universal. The new modules increase the scope for modeling flows of resources (namely cash, labor, and food) between the farm enterprise and the farm household, as well as beyond the farm gate. This allows conducting modeling explorations, optimization routines, and scenario analyses in farming systems research.Graphical abstractUnlabelled Image
  • Farmers' preferences for high-input agriculture supported by site-specific
           extension services: Evidence from a choice experiment in Nigeria
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Jordan Chamberlin, Bernard Vanlauwe, Liesbet Vranken, Yaya Alpha Kamara, Peter Craufurd, Miet Maertens Agricultural extension to improve yields of staple food crops and close the yield gap in Sub-Saharan Africa often entails general recommendations on soil fertility management that are distributed to farmers in a large growing area. Site-specific extension recommendations that are better tailored to the needs of individual farmers and fields, and enabled by digital technologies, could potentially bring about yield and productivity improvements. In this paper, we analyze farmers' preferences for high-input maize production supported by site-specific nutrient management recommendations provided by an ICT-based extension tool that is being developed for extension services in the maize belt of Nigeria. We use a choice experiment to provide ex-ante insights on the adoption potentials of site-specific extension services from the perspective of farmers. We control for attribute non-attendance and account for class as well as scale heterogeneity in preferences using different models, and find robust results. We find that farmers have strong preferences to switch from general to ICT-enabled site-specific soil fertility management recommendations which lend credence to the inclusion of digital technologies in agricultural extension. We find heterogeneity in preferences that is correlated with farmers' resource endowments and access to services. A first group of farmers are strong potential adopters; they are better-off, less sensitive to risk, and are more willing to invest in a high-input maize production system. A second group of farmers are weak potential adopters; they have lower incomes and fewer productive assets, are more sensitive to yield variability, and prefer less capital and labor intensive production techniques. Our empirical findings imply that improving the design of extension tools to enable provision of information on the riskiness of expected outcomes and flexibility in switching between low-risk and high-risk recommendations will help farmers to make better informed decisions, and thereby improve the uptake of extension advice and the efficiency of extension programs.
  • Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of
           agro-ecological zones of India
    • Abstract: Publication date: July 2019Source: Agricultural Systems, Volume 173Author(s): Rishabh Gupta, Ashok Mishra An innovative approach of using agro-ecological zones (AEZs), instead of using political boundaries, has been adopted for climate change impact analysis on rice production of India. The analysis has been carried out by using a process-based Crop Simulation Model (CSM)-CERES-Rice fed with improved state of art bias corrected climate projections from eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) for four expected climatic scenarios- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Using weather-soil-crop information along with year-wise effect of CO2 increase assumption for different RCPs as input to the crop model, simulations were performed for the base period (1976–2005) as well as three future periods (2020s: 2006–2035, 2050s: 2036–2065, and 2080s: 2066–2095) for insight understanding of climate change impact on rice yield. Model simulated rice yields of future periods were compared with that of the base period to quantify the climate change impact. Results based on multi-GCM ensemble show expected increase in rice yield of most of the AEZs in RCP 2.6 but as on moving towards RCP 8.5 through RCP 4.5 and 6.0, the positive impact on rice yield in RCP 2.6, in major rice producing zones, is expected to mitigate and lead to the negative impact by 2080s. Large spatiotemporal variability is expected in most of the zones with humongous variability in arid and hilly zones. The overall change in spatial rice yield in India taking all used GCM-RCP combinations in consideration is expected to vary from 1.2 to 8.8%, 0.7 to 12.6% and −2.9 to 17.8% due to the expected climate change in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively.
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